Boo hoo.

No, wait, COLLUSION!!!!

I can't keep track these days.

Lowe is a Boras client, isn't he?

This has been a slow, slow winter. All the big names were locked up by this point last year, weren't they?

This has been a slow, slow winter. All the big names were locked up by this point last year, weren't they?

You only remember it that way because Buster Olney told you so. ;-)

That's fine. I'd rather have Ben Sheets anyway. And if there's any way to secure Sheets and Perez, I think Omar will have had a good winter.

I like that plan as well, Rask.

And yes, I realize it's high-risk/high-reward.

The Nets could easily have Sheets for a 2 year deal with a club option for a third. I don't see anyone offering more than that given everything. 10 million base plus simple incentives around innings pitched would be more than reasonable given his history. He hits 175 the guy gets 14 or so.

If I were Doug Melvin that is where I would start....................

I'd rather have Ben Sheets anyway. And if there's any way to secure Sheets and Perez, I think Omar will have had a good winter.

Sigh. Get me reliable innings-eaters. We have no safety net (in the form of major-league ready starters) for Sheets. Ollie would be OK, but the number of times the relievers have to get up when he starts to struggle would remain a concern.

You can read Boras's move here in a couple of ways. One, he is telling the Mets he's prepared to keep Lowe out for a long time, even if he has to wait for offers that aren't there yet. So if they want to firm up their rotation, they better not think they can lowball him. Second, it could just be a bluff to get them to bid against themselves. Boras has been known to pull both stunts.

The right counter-move for the Mets would be to go to their second choice, whom I assume is Ollie. Unfortunately, he's also a Boras client -- so Boras has every incentive to keep those talks moving slowly, too, so he doesn't allow Ollie to be a mere pawn in reducing Lowe's leverage (if he suspects that's what the Mets are doing and aren't actually serious about Perez). If those talks are kept alive, but not really getting anywhere nearing a deal, then Boras can hope the Mets start to get anxious about needing one of them . . . at his price.

Which is why the real best move is to go to Sheets, but in a totally cynical way. Negotiate with him simply to put pressure on Boras in a way that he can't control. Then you find out if Boras is willing to risk losing the Mets as his one big-market landing spot for either Lowe or Perez because they might just sign Sheets. If Omar is talking to Sheets, and he sees that Boras is on the line for him, he knows he's won.

High risk/reward ....

You're already carrying risk with Pelfrey, with an unsettled second base, with a RF unsuccessfully coming off a concussion - not to mention what I see as an unhealthy dependence on Daniel Murphy, and bringing in a setup guy coming off of an injury. You need innings that you can count on and I'm not really comfortable going with Sheets.

The Mets need at least one or two more definitive answers before I see it safe to be taking on more risk.

The Nets could easily have Sheets for a 2 year deal with a club option for a third.

He's probably a better option than Bobby Simmons or Yi right now, assuming he has a decent mid-range game and can post up once in a while.

Essex:

Ha!!

Spoken like a true Bucks fan. ;)

Essex:

I am not an NBA fan. I follow UW basketball as an alum.

Ben Sheets' fragility is a bit overstated. Games started beginning with '08: 31, 24, 17, 22, 34, 34, 34, 34. He's prone to boo-boos, but he's never missed more than 1/2 a season and looks like a good bet for 23-29 starts.

A .600 winning percentage in 26 or so starts plus a replacement level w% in 8 starts is probably a win better than a .520 winning percentage in 34 starts. The rumblings about Sheets suggest that teams are offering fewer years to him due to concerns about his health. To me, Sheets is a worse option for the Mets than Lowe, but better than Perez.

Thomas:

That interpretation is completely misguided.

Ben has had a series of disparate injuries over the past four years. While disconnected they have all resulted in lost time, they have all impacted his effectiveness and by Ben's own admission they have had a cumulative impact on his ability to perform not just over the course of the season but from game to game.

Also, this season Ben, in agreement with the team, pretty much threw caution to the wind. Where previously Ben might have been removed from a game because of some tweak or twitch he was left in until everyone agreed things were better left to the bullpen. Ben wanted to maximize his contract opportunities while the team wanted to get to the playoffs.

There is no overstatement here. Ben is the modern day Spud Chandler. He can get eyes out but the ability to take the mound to do so decreases in frequency ever more so over time.

I wish him the best. But to downplay the injury concern is beyond foolish, it is foolhardy........

But to downplay the injury concern is beyond foolish, it is foolhardy........

Also, isn't Sheets hurt right now?

Teams that should get in on Lowe at 3 years bidding IMO:

Detroit
Milwaukee
Atlanta
Cleveland
Boston
St. Louis
LA Dodgers

We will see if they do.

snapper:

He finished the season injured, that is correct.

robin:

Lowe has politely told Doug Melvin to "p*ss off"

I thought Detroit was working on cutting payroll.

I'd be pretty happy if the Mets could get Lowe for 3 years even if they have to bump the average salary up a little bit.

I thought Detroit was working on cutting payroll.

They probably are, but they should be working on "winning games."

Except the injury concern is a basis for savings, either in years or in dollars. Sheets is injured. Teams can get medical records and hedge against that risk with incentives. It's possible that teams know he need TJ surgery and Close is bullshintting when he says that it's like a hamstring strain. Absent that kind of knowledge, based on where the market is right now, if I can't get Lowe, he's the player I'd want. I'd rather take a risk on injury than injury and performance.

Compare him to A.J. Burnett: 34, 25, 21, 32, 19, 4, 29, 27. Admittedly, that was a stupid contract, but it woulda been stupider any other season. With him, your fingers are crossed both for 30 starts AND a 120 ERA+.

heets is injured. Teams can get medical records and hedge against that risk with incentives. It's possible that teams know he need TJ surgery

Sheets declined arbitration. If he had a truly debilitating injury he would have been all over that.

EDIT: By "truly debilitating" I'm referring to imminently necessary surgery.

Compare him to A.J. Burnett

Given that many teams have investigated their health, and both the Yankee and Braves were willing to go 5/75+ on Burnett (and the Jays wanted to extend him), and no one seems to be making a big offer to Sheets, I think it is pretty safe to say that the industry consensus is that Sheets' health issues are quite a bit worse.

My guess is that teams think Burnett may well miss 30 starts over 5 years, but his stuff remains top notch, while they think Sheets injuries are eating away at his ability to pitch at a top level.

Thomas:

But you stated that Ben's fragility was overstated. I disagree.

And medical records and a $2 will get you a Starbucks coffee. That stuff is all but useless. Especially given a guy like Ben who has suffered everything from a torn lat muscle to an inner ear infection that caused recurring dizziness. Nobody has any idea what could be next. Brewer blogs have worn out the "stampeded by elephants" and "contracted ringworm" jokes in listing what might be next with Sheets.........

After watching Sheets pitch injured at the end of last season, I wouldn't want any piece of him. He had triple-A stuff and double-A command. Only a team that was seriously convinced Sheets had recovered from whatever plagued him then should be in on this bidding.

My guess is that teams think Burnett may well miss 30 starts over 5 years, but his stuff remains top notch, while they think Sheets injuries are eating away at his ability to pitch at a top level.

This is nitpicking, but every pitcher in baseball projects to miss at least 30 starts over the next five years.

Nobody "thinks" Sheets are impacting his ability. They know. Ben knows. He's talked about it openly.

He voiced his frustation multiple times during the season about his inability to "finish guys off".......

The difference between a 4 yr/$60 mil deal and a 3 yr/$36 mil deal is far from insurmountable. Five years was always a dream for Lowe. Unless the Red Sox or Yankees get involved, I think this gets done at either 3 yr/$42 mil with a reasonable vesting option for a fourth year or 4 yr/$52 mil.

This is nitpicking, but every pitcher in baseball projects to miss at least 30 starts over the next five years.

Correct. That's why I don't worry too much about injury history, unless the guy is hurt now, or his stuff has been degraded.
There are only two types of starters, those that have already been hurt, and those that are going to be hurt. I'd assume anyone, CC, Johan Santana, etc. is going to miss 30 starts over the next 4-5 years.

He voiced his frustation multiple times during the season about his inability to "finish guys off".......

Where's the Rear Admiral when you need him?

Nobody "thinks" Sheets are impacting his ability. They know. Ben knows. He's talked about it openly.
He voiced his frustation multiple times during the season about his inability to "finish guys off".......

Well that makes the contract situation very clear, and reasonable, then. Thanks for the info, I don't really follow the NL.

There are only two types of starters, those that have already been hurt, and those that are going to be hurt.

Three types - you forgot knuckleballers.

Where's the Rear Admiral when you need him?

Louisville.

Louisville.

Rim shot! Oh, wait ....

I still think his fragility is overstated. For his career, Sheets has been about as healthy and effective as one could hope from any pitcher. Over the past three or four years, he's been touchy, but he's still averaged 24 starts a season. That means he needs to be babied but isn't terrible. Missing 29% of your starts is probably pretty close to average. Maybe being a Cubs' fan has changed my opinion of what constitutes a fragile pitcher, though.

Now that's a different question from whether he's a broken pitcher right now. That's not something we could really know.

Thomas:

I think we need to remember that Ben wants big money. That is reserved for guys who either have real high ceilings or are reliably very good.

Ben is neither.

There are only two types of starters, those that have already been hurt, and those that are going to be hurt.

Don Sutton says 'hi'.