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Thursday, December 13, 2012

USA Today: Anibal Sanchez to Cubs for 5/75

Theo’s first big purchase…

NOTE: The story has been removed from USA Today. Somebody jumped the gun. Jim.9:57 PM.

charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:11 PM | 68 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: anibal sanchez, cubs, free agency, tigers

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   1. Dan Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4324344)
Word is now that the Tigers had the chance to beat the last best offer (like the Rangers thought that had with Hamilton) and may have one-upped the Cubs.
   2. madvillain Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4324345)
Not a done deal apparently Detroit has a chance to counter. With Ilitch nearly dead, I have to think the Cubs lose this one.

[coke to dan, I had to sign in!]
   3. Spahn Insane Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4324347)
Jumping the gun there; the page has been taken down already.
   4. Sebastian Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4324348)
Your link doesn’t work. I went to usatoday.com/sports hoping to find out more. Never again. Never. Again!
   5. Derb Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4324349)
Guess that USA article was removed. Sounds to me like Sanchez is using the Cubs to get what he wants out of Detroit or another club. Sneaky, sneaky...
   6. Spahn Insane Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4324350)
The Hypothetical Gun-jumped Cubs could have a decent rotation, with Anibal and Haren along with Shark and Garza.
   7. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4324352)
Wow. Hamilton, Dempster, Hannahan, Correia, Torres, and now Sanchez all in a matter of five hours. I can't remember so many free agents signing in one day before. I guess everyone had their plan B ready in case Hamilton went elsewhere.
   8. ColonelTom Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4324355)
Everyone except the Phils, from the looks of it.
   9. Willie Mayspedes Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4324356)
Oh, Snap!
   10. Tim D Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4324357)
Nightengale now saying it looks like Tigers are upping the offer and Sanchez prefers Detroit. Scuttlebutt is that Tigers will now shop Porcello but I doubt it unless they get a killer offer. Smyly goes to the pen and serves as #6 starter for the inevitable injury.
   11. Transmission Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4324359)
Even if Sanchez was using the Cubs all along, I'm encouraged that the Cubs felt inclined to bid on a top free agent. More, please.
   12. Derb Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4324362)
Smyly goes to the pen and serves as #6 starter for the inevitable injury.


I don't know. Leyland really likes having a lefty in the rotation, and Porcello looked real good last year coming out of the pen in the playoffs. If Porcello stays in Detroit, I could see Smyly in the rotation and Porcello in the pen.
   13. Brian C Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4324366)
So Nightengale got another big Cubs story wrong, eh? What a tool. My guess is that Sanchez has actually already signed with Kansas City.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:26 PM (#4324378)
Anibal and Haren along with Shark and Garza.

Haren? He signed with the Nats right?
   15. zonk Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4324381)
Oh well...

I am/would have been/will be/whatever sort of torn on this.

On one hand, the Cubs are desperate for pitching -- they're so bereft with little to nothing on the horizon that they all but have to overpay for quality mid-rotation arms, even if there's no reasonable hope of competing till 2014 or even 2015. There's just literally NOTHING in the minors beyond a few yaneverknows (Struck maybe?) that I'd expect to see in the rotation in a few years. Since getting over some injury issues in his early 20s (which could have been a blessing in disguise), he's now put up three straight seasons of 190 IP of 109 ERA+ ball. He's basically Garza 2A (or Garza is Sanibal 2A). That's plenty valuable.

On the other - 15 mil for a shaky #2/solid #3 seems pricey... Figure keeping Garza would cost about the same -- yes, the Cubs can afford it -- but you ARE tying up 30 million for the middle of a rotation, still needing an ace.

But whatever -- I guess aces don't just fall out of the sky and if they were easy to get, everyone would have one...

If Sanchez came back and said that the Tigers were going 5/90 or 6/100 or something -- I don't think I'd match.... You do have to think that if they don't get Sanchez, then Garza probably gets the 5/75 (assuming he's healthy).
   16. Depressoteric Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4324383)
Haren? He signed with the Nats right?
Exactly. He was talking about the hypothetical, gun-jumping Cubs.

Y'know, like how Josh Hamilton was destined to remain a Texas Ranger until this afternoon.
   17. Tim D Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4324394)
"Porcello looked real good last year coming out of the pen in the playoffs."

True, for the grand total of four batters he faced in garbage time. Smyly was nails in 4 games and won the comeback game in NY after Valverde's meltdown. Porcello has been in the rotation several years; Smyly for part of a season. Smyly will be the 2nd lefty in the pen.
   18. Derb Posted: December 13, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4324398)
I just don't like Porcello. There. I said it.
   19. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4324434)
Damn you USA Today! You have besmirched my impeccable BTF reputation!
   20. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4324456)
Exactly. He was talking about the hypothetical, gun-jumping Cubs.

Sorry, must have been a Haren to Cubs rumor that I missed a few weeks ago. That makes sense then.

15 mil for a shaky #2/solid #3 seems pricey

If Sanchez is a shaky #2 then there's no such thing as a solid #2.

For 2010-12 he is:

#23 in bWAR
#36 in IP
#39 in ERA+ (min 300 IP)
#28 in K/9
#39 in K/BB

OK, closer than I thought. Depends I suppose on where you draw your "ace" line. If you draw it at RA Dickey (ERA+ of 129 last 3 years) then there are only 13 aces and Sanchez (say the #30-35 pitcher overall) is in the bottom half of the "#2s". If you draw it at Kuroda (ERA+ of 120, #23 2010-12) and Sanchez looks to be in the top half of #2s. And of course if you draw it at the #30 pitcher (Colby Lewis to Chris Carpenter) then Sanchez is a top #2.

Dickey actually seems a reasonable cutoff for an "ace". Just below him are young guys and/or very good pitchers we generally don't consider aces: Chacin, Matt Harrison, CJ Wilson, Hellickson. Then a couple of guys you might consider aces in Cain and Wainwright (when healthy) but then followed by Hudson, Zimmermann and Kuroda at an ERA+ of 120 (the #23 pitcher by ERA+). A small gap then Fister, Latos, Kennedy, Vogelsong and we're pretty clearly in "non-ace" territory.

On the other hand, Sanchez is not far behind Greinke or Shields (if at all) and those guys cost a ton in money/talent. And the number of guys with 300+ IP and a 96 or better ERA+ 2010-12 is only 77 so Sanchez's performance is still pretty rare and will save you a lot of grief compared to the dreck you'll trot out there without him.
   21. Jittery McFrog Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4324464)
For 2010-12 he is:

#23 in bWAR
#36 in IP
#39 in ERA+ (min 300 IP)
#28 in K/9
#39 in K/BB

2010-2012 are also his only 3 full healthy years.
   22. salvomania Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4324471)
Over the last two years:

WAR:
Kyle Lohse, 23rd
Anibal Sanchez, 24th

IP:
Lohse, 28th
Sanchez, 35th

ERA+:
Lohse, 18th
Sanchez, 38th

K/9:
Lohse, 69th
Sanchez, 17th

BB/9:
Lohse, 6th
Sanchez, 40th

H/9:
Lohse, 27th
Sanchez, 52nd

WHIP:
Lohse, 11th
Sanchez, 44th

HR/9
Lohse, 22nd
Sanchez, 37th

If Sanchez is worth 5/$75M, what is Lohse worth????
   23. Derb Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4324473)

If Sanchez is worth 5/$75M, what is Lohse worth????


The biggest "stat" there:

Lohse = 34 years old
Sanchez = 28 years old
   24. salvomania Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4324481)
Lohse = 34 years old
Sanchez = 28 years old


More like 29 and 34 (Lohse just turned 34, Sanchez turns 29 in February), but it's not like we're talking second basemen here.

Both have had good seasons recently after missing time to injury (Lohse in 2009-2010, Sanchez in 2007-2009), but besides the great K/9 he had one year (in 2011), I just don't get the love for Sanchez. He's never thrown 200 innings, he's never had a WHIP below 1.25 because he gives up 9 hits per 9 ip, and yet he's supposedly one of the top 30-35 pitchers? I don't think so.

That WAR list misses young guys (Kimbrel, Strasburg et al) and discounts guys who've missed any time to injury in the past three years but who we'd all agree are superior to Sanchez, pushing him to more like 40-50.

I'll bet Lohse puts up more WAR than Sanchez from 2013-2015.
   25. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4324482)
If you draw it at RA Dickey (ERA+ of 129 last 3 years) then there are only 13 aces.

11

4 aces in a pack of 52 = 1/13

30 teams, 5 starting jobs = 150

150/13 ~ 11.5

I guess you could give the half to Strasburg if you are feeling generous.
   26. puck Posted: December 14, 2012 at 02:07 AM (#4324513)
If Sanchez is close, there's not a lot left out there for starting pitching, is there? Who next after Jackson and Lohse, Joe Saunders?
   27. Walt Davis Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:27 AM (#4324529)
2010-2012 are also his only 3 full healthy years.

Yeah ... and there are only 35 pitchers with more (MLB) IP over that time period. Do you want the guy who's been healthy for 3 years and injured before that or the guy who was healthy before that but injured in the last 3 years? 3 straight healthy years is HIGH durability -- that could end with his next pitch ... just like Strasburg. If you're looking for less "shaky" than that, you're on a pretty pointless quest.

That WAR list misses young guys (Kimbrel, Strasburg et al) and discounts guys who've missed any time to injury in the past three years but who we'd all agree are superior to Sanchez, pushing him to more like 40-50.

Kimbrel's a reliever. The IP limit on that was only 300 ... sure, it barely misses Strasburg but it picks up anybody who's been starting for more than 1.5 seasons out of the last 3. Low IP pitchers won't do well by WAR but they'll do just fine in ERA+, K/9 and K/BB which is why I provided an array of statistics.

When you combine durability and quality, he's top 25 in WAR the last 3 years. If you go strictly by quality he's in the 35-40 range. If you go somewhere between those two, you get 30-35.

IP 2010-12: 36th
IP 2011-12: 35th
IP 2012: 36th

WAR 2010-12: 23rd
WAR 2011-12: 25th
WAR 2012: 42nd

As to Sanchez vs Lohse -- one never knows (it's like Guthrie vs. Greinke) but Sanchez is 5 years younger, strikes out nearly 3 more guys per 9, has the slightly better K/BB and has pitched 90 more IP the last 3 years and more IP in 2 of the 3 seasons. Lohse has essentially no hope of being better, Sanchez has a good bit of upside while outperforming him in the short term.

And given Haren got $13, Dempster got $13, Lohse will probably get around $13, then $15 for Sanchez is hardly out of line as the (a) youngest guy; (b) guy who hasn't been hurt in the last 3 years; (c) the guy who hasn't had a season in the last 3 (4 actually) in which he's pitched like crap.

As to WHIP -- leaving aside the fact it doesn't tell you anything particularly useful that's not already captured by K/BB and HR rate -- 1.3 is just fine. Sanchez's WHIP is within .006 (1.2 runners per year!) of Wandy, Scherzer, Buehrle, Gallardo, Floyd ... Sanchez ... Danks, Guthrie ... and even a bit more better than Lincecum, Matt Harrison, Dempster, Jaime Garcia, Niese, Billingsley, Romero, Jackson.

Obviously Sanchez could fall apart at any time. And it is indeed unfortunate that Justin Verlander isn't an FA this year and willing to sign with the Cubs for 5/$75 but I'm really unclear what you guys expect in an FA pitcher that's gonna cost $15 per year. It's less than Burnett got 4 years ago; it's less (AAV) than Beckett got in 2011; it's 60% of what Greinke just got, 2/3 (and 2 years less) of what Hamels got and 75% of what Cain got -- it ain't big time pitcher money.
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:36 AM (#4324531)
Who next after Jackson and Lohse, Joe Saunders?


Marcum?

Jeff Karstens is pretty good, but only for about 20 starts a year.
   29. 1k5v3L Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4324560)
The story has been removed from USA Today. Somebody jumped the gun.
Was it Nightengale? Sounds like something a hack like him would do...
   30. Spahn Insane Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4324566)
It was indeed, levski.
   31. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4324569)

I think Drew Smyly is a much better bet than Porcello (surprise!) Smyly is younger and strikes out more guys, which is particularly important given the Tigers infield defence. Rick's never going to miss enough bats to me more than a mid-rotation guy, though he is young enough that he could develop, I guess.

If Detroit keeps Anibal (and at that price I think it's pretty worth it) then I'd really like to see them shop Rick for a righty bat or, preferably, a SS.
   32. JJ1986 Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4324600)
I'd really like to see them shop Rick for a righty bat


The Cubs are apparently looking to add a starter and they have a righty bat who is available.
   33. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4324621)
MLBTR says the Cubs are out and it's almost certainly Sanchez to the Tigers now.

A note for Cubs fans on the near misses with Haren and Sanchez, if it hasn't become clear already: this is classic Theo. He's not just happy to walk away when he doesn't get the price he wants, he seems to legitimately revel in it. It's mildly perverse. I'm surprised there haven't been more rumors of unsuccessful eight-team, twenty-seven player trades, though perhaps that's just because the Cubs front office isn't leaking like a Lucchino ship.
   34. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4324623)

The Cubs are apparently looking to add a starter and they have a righty bat who is available.


I'd think this might actually happen except there's no way they could even afford to add Fonzie's money. And I'd hope DD could get more for Rick.
   35. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4324624)
If I were the Cubs, I'd be after Jackson at this point. He's got real upside with a true plus fastball, he's young, and he's going to cost less than Sanchez. And he won't cost them any draft pool money.
   36. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4324633)
I'll bet Lohse puts up more WAR than Sanchez from 2013-2015.


Oh, god, really?. I'll take that bet. $10-15 BB-Ref sponsorship?
   37. zonk Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4324636)
If you draw it at RA Dickey (ERA+ of 129 last 3 years) then there are only 13 aces.


11

4 aces in a pack of 52 = 1/13

30 teams, 5 starting jobs = 150

150/13 ~ 11.5

I guess you could give the half to Strasburg if you are feeling generous.


That sounds about right.

I understand that using terms like 'ace' or 'stopper' is somewhat meaningless -- but I think you really have to stretch any of those terms to include Sanchez. 'Potential CY candidate' is equally meaningless -- but Sanchez really isn't that either.

I DO agree that Greinke is not worth 1/3 more than Sanchez -- but, it should be noted that Greinke has had 4 seasons better than Sanchez' best -- including a monster 2009 (which, sure, he almost certainly never comes close to replicating).

To me - that's an ace... someone who's downside is Anibal Sanchez, but might put up one of those monster seasons.

All that said - it should be noted that I was not/am not opposed to 5/75 (I suppose I might even go 5/80) for him. Like I said - the Cubs are so pitching thin and have nothing of real promise in the pipeline, so waiting on a Verlander to emerge (whether via trade, FA, or the minors) is probably a long wait on a train don't come. Given his age and the fact that he seems to have settled into a mode of good health - might as well settle the #2/#3 slot for the foreseeable future.

Anibal Sanchez is just simply not the sort of guy you make an effort to set up to start game 1 of a playoff series or figure you might start on short rest to get him on the mound for 3 games in a 7 game series. That's an ace.
   38. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4324643)

Tigers get Sanchez for 5/80, apparently.
   39. Derb Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4324651)
Tigers get Sanchez for 5/80, apparently.


This is Nightengale reporting, so I'll withhold my excitement until I hear someone a little more credible reporting it.
   40. Derb Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4324659)
Free agent right-hander Anibal Sanchez has reached agreement on a five-year, $80 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, agent Gene Mato confirmed to ESPN.com Friday.


Guess I'll believe the agent. Woo-Hoo!
   41. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4324661)
Anibal Sanchez is just simply not the sort of guy you make an effort to set up to start game 1 of a playoff series or figure you might start on short rest to get him on the mound for 3 games in a 7 game series.


They're not paying him like that sort of guy. He's getting John Lackey money.
   42. Derb Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4324665)
They're not paying him like that sort of guy. He's getting John Lackey money.


Exactly. This is the new going rate for pitchers of Anibal's caliber, like it or not.
   43. Depressoteric Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4324671)
Anibal Sanchez at $16 million a year over five years.

And the Mets can't give R.A. Dickey 2/26.

Jesus ####### wept.
   44. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4324681)
Tigers get Sanchez for 5/80, apparently.

This makes a hell of a lot more sense than him signing with the Cubs (for both him and the Cubs).
   45. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4324682)
Exactly. This is the new going rate for pitchers of Anibal's caliber, like it or not.

It's not even new. A.J. Burnett got this deal back before the '09 season.
   46. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4324709)
2009-2012: 111 starts, 3.72 ERA , 8.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9.
IP by year: 86, 195, 196, 195

Shields:
2009-2012: 132 starts, 3.85 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.
IP by year: 219, 203, 249, 227
   47. Derb Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4324713)
2009-2012: 111 starts, 3.72 ERA , 8.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9.
IP by year: 86, 195, 196, 195

Shields:
2009-2012: 132 starts, 3.85 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.
IP by year: 219, 203, 249, 227


I would rather have Shields than Sanchez. I think most people would agree.

But I would also rather have Sanchez, Castellanos, and Garcia than Shields minus Myers and Odorizzi.
   48. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4324714)
A note for Cubs fans on the near misses with Haren and Sanchez, if it hasn't become clear already: this is classic Theo. He's not just happy to walk away when he doesn't get the price he wants, he seems to legitimately revel in it. It's mildly perverse. I'm surprised there haven't been more rumors of unsuccessful eight-team, twenty-seven player trades, though perhaps that's just because the Cubs front office isn't leaking like a Lucchino ship.

Actually, this non-signing makes the 3rd major leak in the past 4+ months. First, the Dempster non-trade to the Braves. Then the previously mentioned Haren un-trade. And now this. The Cubs most definitely have a leak problem. I was hesitant to blame the Dempster one on the Cubs, but after these last two, it seems pretty obvious to me. Whether or not this is a negative, I don't know.
   49. Spahn Insane Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4324729)
The Cubs most definitely have a leak problem. I was hesitant to blame the Dempster one on the Cubs, but after these last two, it seems pretty obvious to me. Whether or not this is a negative, I don't know.

It's certainly irritating from a fan's perspective (from the perspective of this fan, at least). I suppose if it's a "positive," it's because it's part of some game of 11-dimensional chess we outsiders aren't privy to, but it's hard to give credit for what hasn't happened yet (and might not happen).

Anyway, nice to see the Cubs make a legitimate run at a good free agent (I thought from the start of this offseason Sanchez was the guy they should go after), but they really have to add Jackson or somebody now just to make the next couple years watchable, barring a big step forward from, say, Travis Wood.
   50. Spahn Insane Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4324732)
Though I have to say, Jackson would have the potential to drive me up the wall, based on my own observations and some of the comments of the BBTF fans of his past teams (in other words, about half the teams in MLB). Sort of a combination of Steve Trachsel and Javier Vazquez (which, strictly on the merits, you could do a lot worse than, but you get my drift).
   51. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4324742)
Good thing the Red Sox got Ryan Dempster, who is totally going to win them the division!!!!!!
   52. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4324751)
Though I have to say, Jackson would have the potential to drive me up the wall, based on my own observations and some of the comments of the BBTF fans of his past teams (in other words, about half the teams in MLB). Sort of a combination of Steve Trachsel and Javier Vazquez (which, strictly on the merits, you could do a lot worse than, but you get my drift).

Crap, I just realized that I've been thinking of Javier Vazquez every time someone says Edwin Jackson. Like after reading post 35 I was thinking "Jackson is young? On what planet?" and then started trying to figure out who MCOA was talking about, like some prospect that the Cubs should trade for.
   53. Everybody Loves Tyrus Raymond Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4324755)
they really have to add Jackson or somebody now just to make the next couple years watchable


If Edwin Jackson is the guy you need to add to salvage your team's watchability ... well, that's just not a good place to be.
   54. Spahn Insane Posted: December 14, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4324797)
If Edwin Jackson is the guy you need to add to salvage your team's watchability ... well, that's just not a good place to be.

Trust me, I said the same thing to myself as I was typing the original post, which doesn't make it any less true. (You ever watch Casey Coleman start a major league game? [Or, yet, Casey Coleman and Chris Volstad back to back?] I rest my case.)

But, that's where we are; the Cub pitching staff consists of Samardzija, Garza, and a boatload of question marks, and there's nothing resembling a surefire pitching prospect in the system (at least, one who's within shouting distance of the majors). So, a couple hundred innings of aggravating cromulence will in fact enhance the team's watchability considerably. This does, to be fair, mark an improvement over the end of last season, which was merely a whole boatload of crap, once Samardzija got shut down.
   55. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 14, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4324829)
Good thing the Red Sox got Ryan Dempster, who is totally going to win them the division!!!!!!


Who are you talking to?
   56. zonk Posted: December 14, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4324851)
They're not paying him like that sort of guy. He's getting John Lackey money.



Exactly. This is the new going rate for pitchers of Anibal's caliber, like it or not.


I understand that - again, 5/75 or 5/80 wasn't so much my issue... it's more not having that guy that's 7/160 (or worth 7/160) which, again, I completely understand isn't something you can just go out and get.

Maybe a better way to look at it -- Sanibal is BETTER than perfectly cromulent, but the current state Cubs signing him to 5/80 would probably be no better than cromulent.

I recognize ya gotta start somewhere - and I suppose I'm in the same boat as Retro... almost gotta root for making a run at Jackson.

I'm not all that unhappy Thed decided not to enter a bidding war here (although - rumor this morning was that the Cubs had sweetened their offer, too). Granted, it's not my money - so maybe I should be unhappy - but I'd have been much happier if Thed had, say, found a way to get on the Bauer fleecing.

More than anything, the Cubs need high upside young pitching. Given the lack of chits and new foreign FA and ammy rules (not to mention no sure things even before that) - that pretty much means Thed need to start hoarding prospects whose stars have dimmed, prospects coming off big injuries, etc, and hope one or two of them pan out.

Heck - I think I'd have been sniffing around the Shields deal to see if there's some spare part the Rays might have liked better than the Montgomery lottery ticket.
   57. puck Posted: December 14, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4324894)
If Edwin Jackson is the guy you need to add to salvage your team's watchability ... well, that's just not a good place to be.

Not that they were ever known to be in the Sanchez, Dempster or Jackson price ranges, but the Rockies had disastrous rotation in 2012 and so far have added...Daniel Rosenbaum in the rule 5 draft.

Current candidates:
Jorge De La Rosa (out most of 2012 recovering from TJ surgery; velocity way down on return)
Jhoulys Chacin (missed much of the season with a pec injury)
Jeff Francis
Juan Nicasio (missed time with knee injury)
Drew Pomeranz (decent? rookie year, missed a few starts with some shoulder thing)
Christian Friedrich (rough rookie year, missed starts with an elbow thing I think)
Tyler Chatwood (up and down 2012)

Even if these guys manage to pitch well, I don't think they can stay healthy enough to cover 162 starts.
   58. zonk Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4324937)
Not that they were ever known to be in the Sanchez, Dempster or Jackson price ranges, but the Rockies had disastrous rotation in 2012 and so far have added...Daniel Rosenbaum in the rule 5 draft.

Current candidates:
Jorge De La Rosa (out most of 2012 recovering from TJ surgery; velocity way down on return)
Jhoulys Chacin (missed much of the season with a pec injury)
Jeff Francis
Juan Nicasio (missed time with knee injury)
Drew Pomeranz (decent? rookie year, missed a few starts with some shoulder thing)
Christian Friedrich (rough rookie year, missed starts with an elbow thing I think)
Tyler Chatwood (up and down 2012)

Even if these guys manage to pitch well, I don't think they can stay healthy enough to cover 162 starts.


Casey Coleman is available.
   59. Tripon Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4324968)
John Lackey was considered to be a number 1 when he entered into FA. (How rightly or wrongly that was.)
   60. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4324989)
John Lackey was considered to be a number 1 when he entered into FA. (How rightly or wrongly that was.)

With pretty serious injury concerns. You are correct that his quality level was higher, but he only threw 340 IP the last 2 years in LA. He missed significant time both years with elbow issue.
   61. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 14, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4325080)
Not that they were ever known to be in the Sanchez, Dempster or Jackson price ranges, but the Rockies had disastrous rotation in 2012 and so far have added...Daniel Rosenbaum in the rule 5 draft.

And traded Alex White for a reliever. After getting rid of every player over 21 years of age, the Astros ACQUIRED a veteran* player from the Rockies.

*"veteran" meaning "not a rookie" in Astros world
   62. Derb Posted: December 14, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4325109)
Not that they were ever known to be in the Sanchez, Dempster or Jackson price ranges, but the Rockies had disastrous rotation in 2012 and so far have added...Daniel Rosenbaum in the rule 5 draft.


I like Rosenbaum and feel as though he can develop into a serviceable John Lannan clone - but yeah, I wouldn't be too excited if he was the main addition to my team.
   63. puck Posted: December 14, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4325117)
I wonder if they'll go after John Lannan as well.
   64. Jittery McFrog Posted: December 14, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4325138)
Yeah ... and there are only 35 pitchers with more (MLB) IP over that time period. Do you want the guy who's been healthy for 3 years and injured before that or the guy who was healthy before that but injured in the last 3 years? 3 straight healthy years is HIGH durability -- that could end with his next pitch ... just like Strasburg. If you're looking for less "shaky" than that, you're on a pretty pointless quest.


There's one on the free agent market right now. His name is Edwin Jackson. He's pitched a few fewer innings than Sanchez in the past 3 years, but he's been pitching full seasons since 2007.

Also, I didn't use the word "shaky", so putting it quotes is a bit odd. The point is that a 3-year time horizon is a bit favorable to Sanchez.
   65. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 14, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4325142)
Not that they were ever known to be in the Sanchez, Dempster or Jackson price ranges, but the Rockies had disastrous rotation in 2012 and so far have added...Daniel Rosenbaum in the rule 5 draft.


Eh, that doesn't worry me too much. Everyone on the list is either very young or has some history of success. When the Rockies were good, it was because they found young talent and let it play its way into the lineup. It wasn't because they went after guys like Edwin Jackson (or Michael Cuddyer, for that matter).

I would much rather see if Drew Pomeranz can become a good starting pitcher than slap a retread like John Lannan into the rotation.
   66. puck Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4325248)
Pomeranz is fine, but are any of the guys on that list a good bet for 160 innings? They seemed in a lot better shape last year with lots of good depth options, though unfortunately almost no one worked out.
   67. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4325818)
If you draw it at RA Dickey (ERA+ of 129 last 3 years) then there are only 13 aces.
I didn't see it mentioned, but this seems godawful high.

An ERA+ of 129 is as good or better than a solid Hall of Famer's typical season, even if you knock off a couple of crappy years at the start and end of their careers. Smoltz as a starter, without his bad seasons at the start and finish, put him around 129. You have to stretch a little to get Schilling to 129. Maddux, undoctored, as a career ERA+ of 132, so we can take his career, whole, and he's just above the line.

I don't think of an ace as a pitcher who's having a HOF season.
Do other people?
   68. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4325821)
John Lackey was considered to be a number 1 when he entered into FA. (How rightly or wrongly that was.)
My recollection was the he was considered solidly on the line between a 1/2. There was a lot of debate about it.

Lackey hadn't been the best pitcher on the Angels in the two years leading to FA. Weaver was as good, but more durable one year. Santana was better, and more durable the other. Lackey had had his great year, his lucky year, in 2007, but the four years surrounding it were all around the same level, and his peripherals (and durability) were getting worse (still good, of course). His walks improved, but that was about it. It seemed like he was holding on by staying around the plate. Otherwise, he was striking out fewer guys, giving up more HRs, giving up more hits, certainly pitching fewer innings.

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