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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

USA Today: Simulated Series: Giants take Game 1 in extra innings

I seriously doubt Panda would make it to third before Scutaro crosses the plate:

Pablo Sandoval’s RBI triple in the bottom of the 10th inning plated Marco Scutaro with the winning run as the San Francisco Giants defeated the Detroit Tigers in the opener of USA TODAY’s Simulated World Series.

Mike Emeigh Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:38 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: detroit, fantasy, san francisco, simulation, world series

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   1. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4281895)
Pure rubbish, but maybe it will get people to see that if players can choke in simulated games also, then the concept is worthless.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4281903)
How often is a walk-off triple hit? I'd be surprised if there were an average of one a year.
   3. dr. scott Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4281921)
1 a year? id be surprised if there were any this year.

Just found this from 2011...

In an era in which we're used to walkoff homers and singles and even walkoff walks are glorified, the walkoff triple is a rare event. Santiago's walkoff triple last night was the first since Rajai Davis hit one on August 3, 2009. That was the only walkoff triple in 2009. There was only one in 2008, too, off of Eugenio Velez's bat in September. There were three in 2007 (Chone Figgins, Luke Scott, and Rick Ankiel), one in 2006, two in 2005, two in 2004, one in 2003, two in 2002, and just one in 2001.

It makes sense that the walkoff triple would be such a rare play; why should a runner keep running on a ball in the gap that's obviously going to score the game winning run? Most potential walkoff triples probably end up in the books as walkoff doubles. Santiago only made it to third on his hit last night because Victor Martinez is so slow that what should've been an easy game-winner ended up with a throw to the plate. Santiago had to keep running so that in case Martinez was thrown out, he'd still have a chance to score.

In fact, that's what a walkoff triple is almost always going to take; a ball in the gap, a slow runner, a play at the plate, and less than two outs so that the batter has motivation to keep on booking. It's not a confluence of events that we ever see more than once or twice a year.

Ok, just found this... Dexter Fowler hit one for the Rockies against Houston on May 29th of this year... there was at least one... may not have been any more...
   4. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4281927)
According to BRef there have been 3 game ending triples hit this year.

5/28 Cuddyer scores
7/20 Carlos Pena scores
9/27 Jay Bruce scores

2 in 2011
   5. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4281948)
5/28 Cuddyer scores
7/20 Carlos Pena scores
9/27 Jay Bruce scores

The first two of these are listed as "Triple to RF (Ground Ball)". one can imagine a situation in which the runner has to dodge the ball, slowing him on his way around the bases. The Bruce play is surprising in that it is listed as "Triple to RF (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF)" and was hit by Dioner Navarro, who is no one's idea of a speed demon.

For all their offensive punch, the Tigers were rather ordinary (.253) against left-handed pitching during the regular season. Although Miguel Cabrera hit a league-leading 44 home runs, only four of them came against southpaws. And Prince Fielder had an OPS of just .808 against lefties, over 200 points lower than his OPS against right-handers. No wonder Giants manager Bruce Bochy has back-to-back left-handers on the mound to start the World Series.

The platoon advantage is of course real, but it's the sort of thing that can become overly important in sims and can make them unrealistic. Cabrera's 314/441/472 in 195 PAs against lefties becomes his true talent level for the computer, which has no idea that he never faces a bad lefty and that he isn't pitched to like a normal hitter. A good human player can sometimes leverage this to beat up on a computer manager -- I will always think fondly of 2002 Brandon Larson murdering lefties for me to the tune of 10 HRs and 25 RBIs in 50 ABs.
   6. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4281955)
9/27 walkoff triple

I don't know how he gets credited with a triple on that play as it looks like he's on second when the runner crosses the plate. The only thing I can think of is that the ball skipped by the catcher so the official scorer decided to give him a triple.
   7. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4281965)
7/20 walkoff triple

MLB Gameday calls it a double. It was a groundball down the first base line so it wasn't one where the runner had to hold up. Looks like Zobrist was only a few steps from third when Pena crosses the plate.
   8. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4281971)
5/28 Walkoff Triple

Hard hit ball that was basically right at the first baseman. Cuddyer does in fact pause and even leans back towards first as it looks like the first baseman might catch the ball. Fowler hadn't reached third base when Cuddyer crosses the plate and in fact was barely jogging halfway between second and third when Cuddyer crosses the plate.
   9. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: October 24, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4281978)
USA Today has the A's winning Game #1 of the '88 World Series as well.
   10. BDC Posted: October 24, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4281995)
Quibble, but though it's a game-ending hit, it seems odd to call a triple a "walkoff." The figure of speech comes from the reaction of the defensive team to a home run or single where the winning run cannot possibly be prevented: they just walk off the field. If they're running like hell trying to make a play, then it's just a game-winning hit.
   11. Karl from NY Posted: October 24, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4282129)

A walkoff hit could logically be a triple, if there's fewer than two outs and the winning run is a slow runner from 1B. He might get thrown out at the plate, meaning the triple hitter could become the winning run, so he should keep chugging as long as possible and perhaps end up at third base.

I wrote that, then checked the fake boxscore -- and that's exactly what happened. One out, Fake Scutaro was on first base and is not a fast runner, so Fake Sandoval should keep on running in case Fake Scutaro gets thrown out at the plate and Sandoval becomes the winning run instead.

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