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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
“I’m not writing off this season,” the team’s co-chairman said Tuesday. “They’re trying hard to win. There’s only so much you can do. They’re not supermen.”
The Yankees are missing starting pitcher Chien-Ming Wang, who likely will miss the rest of the season because of a foot injury, and Joba Chamberlain, who hopes to return from right rotator cuff tendinitis. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have missed most of the season.
“I think it’s very simple, we’ve been devastated by injuries. No team I’ve ever seen in baseball has been decimated like this. It would kill any team,” Steinbrenner said. “Imagine the Red Sox without (Josh) Beckett and (Jon) Lester. Pitching is 70 percent of the game. Wang won 19 games two straight years. Chamberlain became the most dominating pitcher in baseball. You can’t lose two guys like that.”
Chamberlain has been great as a starter, but the most dominating pitcher in baseball? I don’t think he’s the most dominating pitcher on his own team.
Besides, even with Wang and Chamberlain, the Yankees would be struggling. It’s been the offense that’s killed them, and it will need to be the offense that saves them, or wins for them next season.
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And it's not like the Red Sox haven't had to deal with injuries of their own.
Edit: Bartlett is apparently so important to me that I initially listed him twice
Oh, wait . . . I guess guys who throw less than an inning every two games are still pitchers.
I think the same thing will happen to the Yanks.
(b) Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Bruney, Albeladejo (and to a lesser extent, IPK)'s injuries all add up too....
Sure, non-Yankee fans will say "Cry me a river", and this team has indeed underperformed. But there's reasons for that underperformance.....
The Devil Rays have slammed the front door shut on them, and the Yankees are now trying to run around the house to get in through the back door before that closes. I know I'm shocked, Mike Francesa, that looking at the Names of the respective teams turns out not to have been sound analysis.
In any event, their best month this year is 15-10 in July, and they'll have to do better than that to really make a run at the wild card. I don't really see how the starting staff can fuel such a run, what with a rotation consisting of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins, and Sam Malone. It seems that such a run would have to be sustained by the offense; the aging stars will probably need to get hot at the same time. I wouldn't count on Melky or Pudge helping much.
Cano, Posada, and Melky have really killed them this year.
Actually, they could really use Clemens this year; even as an average pitcher he'd be better than a lot of the starts they've been getting.
Would they get a 30-day reprieve if they said "Mientkiewicz" backwards?
Translation: Yes, Virginia, you had better believe I will personally be handing CC Sabathia a blank check this winter.
Wait, is he calling them scrubs?
Ah, the Seattle Mariner Gambit.
(ba dum dum)
Yep, and I think it's understandable to do so. This is from a pretty neutral perspective--I'm not a Yankee hater.
Let's say the Padres (just to pick a team) are expected to do well a certain year, compete for their division and for the wild card. Let's say they completely underperform and miss the playoffs, like the Yankees have done this year. The injuries, the disappointing performers, everything. The Padres are, in all likelihood, screwed. They lost a year when they were expecting to compete. They lost a year that was carefully planned to be a successful one. Their fans would really have something to complain about. At the very least, they're in a much less desirable situation than the Yankees are in right now.
The Yankees are going to reload this offseason, signing CC, signing Teixeira, whatever you like. They will be expected to compete next year, and every year for the foreseeable future. (I don't have a problem with this. It's business, they have the money, the players bring in more money in that market, they should make big money. It's fine with me. I'm not complaining.)
I'm sure it's frustrating to see this happen to your favorite team. But consider how much worse it would be if this happened to a different franchise. The Yankees don't have it so bad, and that's why people will say "cry me a river."
Whoever fired Torre might be re-thinking that now :-) (If losing in the playoffs wasn't good enough, I wonder how Girardi's miss-the-playoffs act will be taken.)
15 years of pretty good to great luck to one year of lousy luck; that's a pretty good ratio.
Yankee haters have every right to gloat when they stink up the joint, though it kind of reminds me of how some sickos seem to enjoy it when America loses a war.
If the Yankees miss the playoffs, the terrorists have won.
I guess people don't have to wonder anymore why Rivera only pitches well in save situations...
Parts of the War of 1812 didn't turn out so well
In the winter of sixty-five
We were hungry just barely alive
By May tenth Richmond had fell
It was a time I remember oh so well
Damn Yankees.
Finally, someone that gets it. Please, give this man a Cy Young vote and a Hall of Fame vote.
I guess I don't see/pay attention to this sentiment. Having been against the Iraq war from the beginning, one of the more disheartening aspects (aside from the obvious real costs of war in lives and dollars) is the fact that there is no point in saying 'I told you so' If anything, it makes the whole situation MORE frustrating on a personal level. People are dying, and no amount of virtual GM'ing is going to change that fact.
For those who want to obsess over Damon's noodle arm as a reason against the move, I direct you to Melky's .635 OPS.
LF Damon, CF Cabrera, RF Abreu, DH Nady
LF Nady, CF Damon, RF Abreu, DH Sexson/Betemit
And what I think is the optimal arrangement:
LF Damon, CF Cabrera, RF Nady, DH Abreu
I'd rather have Cabrera's glove out there than have Sexson playing every day. Now, once Matsui gets back, then yeah, I think Cabrera is the guy that has to be bumped in favor of Nady/Damon/Abreu/Matsui.
Second...thinking that 'adding a starting front-line vet pitcher will fix everything' is exactly the sort of thinking I was hoping for from the Hankster.
Joe Torre must be loving this.
BTW, the Texiera talk puzzles me - with all of the Yankees' DH/1B candidates already lined up, where is he supposed to play? And if they DO sign him, are his numbers going to bury Giambi's, who would have to be gone if Tex is signed (assuming Posada is the other 1B/DH)? I'm not saying Giambi is a 'better player', but he's creating a lot of runs...so where's the improvement by plugging in Tex's numbers for 2009 instead?
I don't think Joe Torre is in a position to tell the Yankees "neener neener neener".
Sorry I'm not all rah rah about our wars. I'll try harder in the future. As for winnng or losing, we lost as soon as we started that war. My only hope was for as few casualties and injuries as possible and quick return home for the troops. The whole thing has been a nightmare.
Um, no.
Yeah, I'm sure Mark Teixeira is losing sleep over being blocked by Wilson Betemit and the corpses of Richie Sexson and Jason Giambi.
I'm glad the Tigers went ahead and pulled the trigger on Miguel Cabrera despite having Brandon Inge, Jeff Larish, and Mike Hessman already in the fold.
No - the problem is that far too many people treat foreign policy like its a ####### baseball game, and a baseball game only to be attended by zombie fanboys... so long as we all wear the same jerseys and caps, we ought to just cheer our asses off, no matter what is exactly happening on the field.
Patriotism has nothing to do with who pokes a better finger in a chest.
This is the dumbest thing ever.
Giambi doesn't play everyday, Tex does. Giambi can't field, Tex can. Giambi is super slow. Tex is only kinda slow. Giambi is making like 20+ mil this, Tex will probably make something like that next year. So some likely improvement over this year because Tex is a pretty well rounded player for a firstbaseman, with the promise of dramatic improvement over whatever other options they have to run out there next year (Giambi again, Nady, Betemit, Miranda).
For those who want to obsess over Damon's noodle arm as a reason against the move, I direct you to Melky's .635 OPS.
I'm shocked it's that high.
And I think China will manage to reignite real patriotism in this country (Not just support the troops bumper stickers and Drill! Drill! Drill!) soon enough, if it hasn't already.
He said it, on the Mike and Mike show. To repeat, he said that they should stop complaining, because the Yankees have used 6 star outfielders this year, BA, Damon, Matsui, Nady and Cabrera. I assume he is counting Nady or Matsui twice or something, I don't know. But he gets paid to talk about baseball, and he said that.
I was thinking on the way in, the Yankees haven't won a WS since they started singing God Bless American between every half inning. They should stop that.
Well, relative to me he is!
Patriotism as in what, rallying around a common cause in the belief that it should always be a predominantly white, Western nation that holds the title of world's greatest military and economic superpower?
I guess xenophobia is a kind of patriotism...
Or taking pride in your country and taking steps to improve it, in whatever means you are capable of (science, art, education) as well as yourself. It doesn't have to be a dirty word.
I guess xenophobia is a kind of patriotism...
I would guess that the difference in race and culture of China will mobilize Americans quicker than say, Canada becoming a rival superpower. But there are also important social and political values at stake, so it's hard to write it all off as xenophobia and racism.
I was thinking on the way in, the Yankees haven't won a WS since they started singing God Bless American between every half inning. They should stop that.
That'd be nice, I could stop changing the channel during every frickin home game during the seventh inning stretch.
This is pretty funny. I am surprised that some people seem a little miffed by it and didn't get it--unless they are engaged in meta-sarcasm that I am missing.
This is not how - for any country - it manifests primarily. It manifests mostly by providing justification to beat down some other country. Or at least say repeatedly over and over how one COULD beat down another country, and should do so and feel justified if the need arises.
I find nationalism to be rather useless, petty, stupid, and one can only hope fleeting in the grand scope of human history.
Please note if someone thinks I'm talking about the U.S. here, that's their problem, not mine. I'm talking about all of them.
From the guy who has lived in Raleigh and Richmond. (Yes, I read the later comments and discussion - still struck me as funny.)
So far. As you alluded to, it's a relatively new concept in the history of mankind.
This is pretty funny. I am surprised that some people seem a little miffed by it and didn't get it--unless they are engaged in meta-sarcasm that I am missing.
More meta-tongue-in-cheek than meta-sarcasm, Robin, but at least you didn't jump to the bait like some of the others. It is pretty amazing just how widespread literalmindedness can be, even on a forum like this.
Yeah. I picked up on it after I posted, but I don't like to edit my first responses. It seemed out of character for Andy so I should have known better. The war kills my sense of humor. One more reason I'd kick Bush in his cooze if I ever got the chance. (Here's hoping cooze isn't picked up by CIA internet filters!)
I think it's more likely that patriotism is on people's minds, the olympics is an event based on patriotism. I jumped in because the topic was broached, somewhat tangentially, and there seemed to be takers on the conversation. I'm sure this applies for a few people.
More years like this? $200 mil. & no playoffs is fine with you????
Knock it off! The season isn't over yet and the Rays have lost Longoria and Crawford. I'm invoking the no-hitter rule regarding the Yanks missing the playoffs. No talking about it until it happens. Please, work with me on this.
Hank broke Phil Hughes' rib? And Matsui's knee? And Posada's shoulder? And Wang's foot?
just to go back a bit, this is an absurd statement. The most significant position player injuries the Yankees have gone through this year have been Posada, Jeter, and ARod - two of those play a position where it's very, very hard to find a good hitter, and the third is one of the best all-around players of his generation. Replacements for players like that don't just come on trees.
seconded - can you imagine what Steinbrenner pere would have done in this situation if he were still in his prime? He would have fired Girardi in May then traded Cano for Juan Pierre
Hank also used his eldritch powers to turn Melky's bat into a banjo and Ian Kennedy into Jose Lima. At least he's not responsible for A-Rod's choking... vengeful God took care of that.
In addition to Wang's injury, I think the other thing I would point to as a perhaps somewhat surprising negative factor is Cabrera's poor performance at the plate. I am not surprised by it
--I have never thought that much of Cabrera and was one of the few who thought the Yankees should have made the proposed Santana trade--but a lot of people who know more about him than I do thought he would do better. To me, he is a KEY guy for NY in 2009. If they give him another chance and he improves his hitting a bit, he could make a difference.
I think Sabathia will sign with the Yankees. Getting him is essentially like adding Santana without giving up young guys, and after Hughes' and Kennedy's performances in 2008, I don't think the Yankees can pass on a guy like Sabathia right now. But I think Teixeira will be elsewhere, and the Yankees will use some of the guys they have now in a 1b job share/rotation (maybe Posada and Giambi, re-signing after being bought out).
Absurd. Like the Yankees will give up on him because he made some innocuous comments about pitching into bad luck that day, which was true.
You expected Cano to turn in an 86 OPS+?
What's really killing this team, beyond the injuries, and the youth dramatically underperforming, is that they have not been able to produce with RISP. If they hit as well in clutch spots as they did normally, they'd still be breathing down Boston's neck.
None of this is Hank's fault.
Jeter SS
Teixeira 1B
A-Rod 3B
Matsui DH
Nady RF
Posada C
Cano 2B
Spoiled Milk/Jackson CF
CC
Wang
Joba
Moose
Hughes
I feel reasonably confident about a team with those primary parts...now...just have to actually get Tex and CC signed.
I would add ARod's injury - he's still close to his prime and has been very durable. When you lose your best player for a month and your best starter for 3+, that's a lot to account for.
Yes, actually. Not that it was specifically expected for this year, but it was entirely foreseeable that Cano could hit .260 some year instead of .300 or .340, and when that happened, given that his performance is BA-driven, he was likely to end up with something like an 86 OPS+.
I would argue jingoism. I see nothing patriotic about the Olympics.
People talked about this yesterday. He has hit pretty well since April, but I have never been a huge Cano fan. I would have predicted about 100-105. He may bounce back. If the Yankees add Sabathia, either Hughes OR Kennedy is league average and Cano and Cabrera improve--all very reasonable possibilities--they will be right back in business in 2009.
Well, he turned 33 in July and has a lot of miles on him.
I've said this before, but I know that Primates love to say "hahahah!!! look at yankee fans and their crazy owner Hank who never worked for a dime in his life and is going to ruin the team hahah!!1"...but Hank has been terrific thus far.
But I think your post mostly affirms CP's point. A 100 OPS+ this year for the Yankees is .753, so even someone who has "never been a huge Cano fan" would have to concede he's underperforming unexpectedly by more than 50 points of OPS. That's a bunch.
Um, Giambi's created 70 runs this year...Tex has created 84. I'm nost saying Giambi = Tex, not by a long shot...but the 'improvement' the Yanks will get be replacing one with the other isn't going to be all that remarkable an impact on the standings in 2009. As for it being a 'dramtic improvement over what they could trot out in 2009', agreed...but that's damning with faint praise. Yankee fans are all too happy to jettison Giambi for Tex/Manny/whoever, but the fact is that Giambi hasn't been the problem with the Yanks' offense, which is their REAL problem, not so much the pitching.
I don't think Tex is going to make them that much better...replacing Giambi with him isn't going to result in a lot more runs in 2009 in comparison with 2008.
Who's flying into buildings again?
So 14, plus, what, 7 or so on defense (being really conservative). That's 2 wins. I'd call that a pretty big improvement. And Giambi is slumping and Tex is red hot, I wouldn't be surprised to see the difference expand.
the irony about Cano is that both his BB and K rates have improved over last year. It's inexplicable.
Jeter SS
Teixeira 1B
A-Rod 3B
Matsui DH
Nady RF
Posada C
Cano 2B
Spoiled Milk/Jackson CF
CC
Wang
Joba
Moose
Hughes
I feel reasonably confident about a team with those primary parts...now...just have to actually get Tex and CC signed.
A few things. First, I find it kind of amusing that everyone assumes 1) that CC and Teixera will want to play for the Yankees, and that 2) no other team will be willing to spend a boat load of money on those guys, despite the fact that plenty of teams have shown a willingness to spend lots of money the past couple of off seasons.
Still, if they do sign those two, they will have:
an old catcher, coming off a big injury
A second basemen coming off a terrible year
A somewhat old shortstop
A somewhat old left fielder (coming off a very good year)
A mediocre (or worse) center fielder
A mediocre right fielder
an pretty old and not great DH
First base and third base would look good.
The pitching should be pretty good, assuming they stay healthy, which didn't work out so well this year...
His BB rate is certainly not improved over last year. It's improved over 2005 and 2006, but, with only 16 and 18 walks in those years, respectively, he had nowhere to go but up. I wouldn't say 22 walks in 470 PAs is anything to write home about. Granted if you compare 2007-8 to 2005-6 he has made some improvement there.
He is also posting a career low Isolated Power. If he was hitting .260 with his usual power he would have about a 100 OPS+
Not to mention his increased line drive rate.
How much of that difference is based on the playing time disparity? Yes, that's a real advantage for Tex, but when Giambi isn't playing 1B, somebody else is, and contributing numbers. Well, since the Yanks are using Betemit/Sexson, maybe not.
That said, going forward I wouldn't be surprised to see Tex worth 2 wins/year over Giambi. I'm slowly coming around to the idea that he may actually be worth the 8 years, $160M.
He'll be 26, his peripherals have improved and he's been hitting a ton of line drives. I think he's a good bet to bounce back.
A somewhat old shortstop
Who has still been pretty good this year.
A mediocre (or worse) center fielder
Austin Jackson, who's having a good year right now, may be ready to take over by then. And there's no guarantee the Yanks don't sign someone else like Marlon Byrd.
A mediocre right fielder
Who will project better next year than he ever has before.
an pretty old and not great DH
But still pretty good. Stack him up against the rest of the DHs in the league, he'll come out looking alright.
The pitching should be pretty good, assuming they stay healthy, which didn't work out so well this year...
I don't think the Yanks are going to shoe-ins for the playoffs every year from here to eternity like they used to be. But they're still a good team this year missing a lot of key parts, and next year they'll replace two old players with better, much younger ones.
Yeah, his power is typically better.
As for Nady, he's 29 and having a break out year. People who have breakout years at age 29 often regress to the players they were at age 27 and 28. No guarantees, but I'll take the under on his projection for next year if you're expecting him to be a lot better than that.
Yes, Bruney and Albeladejo are not exactly the greatest relievers in the world, but they would have been useful if they'd been healthy (and an uninjured Hughes sure would have been helpful).
Matsui's injury is somewhat likely, but Posada's is not (really, was anybody expecting the guy to tear up his shoulder like that? It's one thing to decline with age, another to have a major injury out of the blue).
Funny how a guy is an iron man for over a decade, suffers his first injury and then becomes brittle.
Wang's foot, yes, yes he did. By not using his ownership powers to force the stupid NL to see the light and finally stop their pitchers from hitting, yes, Hank broke Wang's foot.
Um, Giambi's created 70 runs this year...Tex has created 84. I'm nost saying Giambi = Tex, not by a long shot...but the 'improvement' the Yanks will get be replacing one with the other isn't going to be all that remarkable an impact on the standings in 2009. As for it being a 'dramtic improvement over what they could trot out in 2009', agreed...but that's damning with faint praise. Yankee fans are all too happy to jettison Giambi for Tex/Manny/whoever, but the fact is that Giambi hasn't been the problem with the Yanks' offense, which is their REAL problem, not so much the pitching.
Giambi is the most valuable albatross in the league. In 120 Yankee games, he's played first in 76 of them. He's only appeared in a total of 104 games, and he hasn't been on the DL. I think the Yankees would like to have an everyday first baseman, if for no other reason than so when A-Rod, Jeter and Cano look up, they know who the heck they're supposed to throw to.
[Cano] has hit pretty well since April
Those end points really don't do justice to the ways in which Cano absolutely destroyed the Yankees offensively. He was hitting .183 after 40 games with an OPS of .540. That's 25% of the season. After 100 games, his OBP still hadn't cracked .300. If there was a Least Valuable Player Award wherein a player's performance was the difference between making the playoffs and not, Cano would easily be in the discussion.
I don't think you can expect a first major injury for anyone. The only players who have major injuries that don't surprise anyone are the players who have already had one or more major injuries (Griffey, Hampton, Prior, etc.). If there was ever a player you'd expect to go down with his first major injury, I think the 36-year-old catcher who has caught 130+ games for 8 straight seasons is a good bet.
35 years of trying, and the AL owners have not come up with a compelling reason yet. <ducking>
Yes, Cano sucked, but during that period, the Yankees were without A-Rod, Posada and Hughes (and Melky was still sort of hitting at that point).
Cano's part of the reason, but he's not the sole reason (and that's partially why I hate using sabermetric arguments about how a player killed a team for a specific period without looking at other variables, such as playing Betemit, Alberto González and José Molina regularly).
A more accurate way of looking at things:
Fist 40 Games: .540 OPS
Since: .774 OPS
Now .774 isn't fabulous or anything (it's probably a 105-07 OPS+) but Cano wasn't a sub-.300 OPB player consistantly through 100 games, he was horrible for the first 40 or so and then fine if not great thereafter.
Ummm... unless, of course, the Red Sox had ALSO hit in the clutch, in which case the Yankees would be even FURTHER behind.
source: according to BP stats page, the Red Sox have underperformed their estimated runs scored (EqR) by 41 runs. The Yankees by 21 runs. The Rays, OTOH, have overperformed by 31.
agreed - no one's saying that Cano has had anything but a poor year, but looking forward, is he more likely to be the .540 OPS guy from one month or the .774 guy from the succeeding 3+ months? Cano is very streaky, but it's hardly time to give up on him just yet.
what the Twins were asking from the Yankees has never made it past rumors or innuendo, but I don't think Kennedy was ever the centerpiece of the Yankees' package. If he was included, it was WITH Hughes or the top prospects.
I was making two points to describe how terrible he was for the first quarter of the season.
You ever play in a softball game where a guy in your lineup had to leave early in the game, so that every time subsequently his spot came up you got an automatic out? That was Cano in April.
Am I exceedingly venomous toward Cano? He was my third-round pick on my fantasy team, following Johan Santana and Alex Rios. Yep, I got some venom.
well, some people would base it off last year, when Pedroia faded at the end, and Cano shot passed him in OPS+
We know, it's like the opposite of last year.
Yes. The Santana proposal.
Source?
I'm just kidding, I know you don't have one.
That's part of declining with age.
And Tabata would have been the centerpiece, not Kennedy. Tabata was really well thought of this offseason.
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