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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

U.S.S. Mariner: Dave’s 2010 Off-Season Plan

The Moves

Trade Brandon Morrow to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy.
Trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe, and Jason Vargas to Chicago for John Danks.
Sign Nick Johnson to a one year, $9 million contract
Sign Orlando Hudson to a two year, $16 million contract
Sign Ben Sheets to a one year, $7 million contract
Sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $4 million contract…

Giving up four years of Morrow for two years of Hardy is a risk, but it’s a risk the M’s should be willing to take. Young pitchers are full of false hope, so while Morrow may indeed put it together and become a quality starting pitcher, the M’s would be better off building around a shortstop instead. The Brewers have coveted Morrow for years, and they probably won’t get a better arm in return for Hardy. It’s a win-win trade, upgrading the M’s infield while giving the Brewers a pitcher they badly need.

Now, having written all that, perhaps you’ll think it is a little hypocritical that I then immediately suggest swapping an infielder for a pitcher by sending Lopez, Lowe, and Vargas to Chicago for Danks. However, the situations are quite a bit different. Despite his age, Lopez is simply not the kind of player the M’s want to build around for the future, and his value will be maximized in another city. His best skill, power to left field, is in direct conflict with the way Safeco plays. The M’s will get less value from Lopez than just about every other team in baseball, so moving him to an environment that doesn’t clash with his skills is an efficiency maximization decision.

He forgot “give Ken Williams a lobotomy.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 03:59 PM | 253 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   201. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:37 PM (#3362334)
Why does everything get so personal in the internet baseball community. We all like baseball and we're all overly obsessive about it. All this in-fighting is weird.


Shut up, ugly.
   202. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3362336)
Shut up, ugly.

Well, I'm not that ugly. I'm more John Lackey ugly than Don Mossi ugly.
   203. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:42 PM (#3362340)
Well, I'm not that ugly. I'm more John Lackey ugly than Don Mossi ugly.


Now you're just being modest Shooty.
   204. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:43 PM (#3362341)
I'm more John Lackey ugly than Don Mossi ugly.


I can vouch for that. He takes after his mom.
   205. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:46 PM (#3362346)
I can vouch for that. He takes after his mom.

Mom's a handsome woman, for sure. Speaking of which, I better give her a description of Steve Phillips just in case...
   206. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:47 PM (#3362348)
To encourage her, or to warn her?
   207. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:49 PM (#3362351)
To encourage her, or to warn her?

I'll leave that up to her. But if she goes to the movies, I don't want Steve Philips offering to share his tub of popcorn with her without her knowing who he is.
   208. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3362355)
Man, you guys are reviving this thread? I hope my posts on it weren't too embarrassing.
   209. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:53 PM (#3362357)
Man, you guys are reviving this thread? I hope my posts on it weren't too embarrassing.

YOU'RE hoping YOUR posts aren't too embarassing????????
   210. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:54 PM (#3362358)
Why does everything get so personal in the internet baseball community. We all like baseball and we're all overly obsessive about it. All this in-fighting is weird. This is fun time, guys. This is where we come to discuss the merits of Jose Lopez and dookie. I'm not sure why every time Tango, or Dave Cameron or MGL or Rob etc. come onto the site there's always gotta be a couple of people that need to get personal. It's cool those guys hang out here and engage us. These guys make the site better and, if a few of them sound like know-it-alls, well, a lot of the regulars here should look in the mirror before throwing stones.

Shooty,

Basically this site is about arguing. Arguing baseball, arguing politics, arguing music, movies, whatever. It's the 21st century version of the corner bar. Most of us here love to debate, and most of us manage to keep it tothe ideas (avoid personal attacks). Not to say we don't get plenty snarky at time, and engage in lots of hyperbole.

Cameron and MGL in particular don't seem to want to debate. Their writing often conveys an "I'm the expert, your the student" tone (I don't get this from Tango, BTW). This rubs a lot of us the wrong way, and leads us to playing "gotcha" when they say something stupid. The fact that they typically don't acknowledge errors, feeds the frenzy even more. They don't seem to realize that many of the posters here are just as smart, and educated, and skilled in quantitative disciplines as they are. So, even if we don't have the specific sabremetric knowledge, they don't always know more than us about everything.

My 2 cents, for what it is worth.

I'll also issue a blanket apology if I've been out of line and offended anyone. I tend to get overly passionate in debate.
   211. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:54 PM (#3362359)
Come on, GGC. You're one of the more polite people around this place. If you're embarassed about your posts on this thread, your embarassment threshold is way to low.

As a counter, I'm quite sure that I've got a goodly number of posts spread around this site for which I should be much more embarassed than I am.

EDIT: Basically, what Shooty said.
   212. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:56 PM (#3362360)
As a counter, I'm quite sure that I've got a goodly number of posts spread around this site for which I should be much more embarassed than I am.

Most of those are condensed in the threads in which you argue Alexis Rios doesn't suck.
   213. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:56 PM (#3362362)
I'll also issue a blanket apology if I've been out of line and offended anyone.


It's about damn time. I've been waiting for this apology for years.

You know what I'm talking about.
   214. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:57 PM (#3362364)
Most of those are condensed in the threads in which you argue Alexis Rios doesn't suck.


Give him time. I've still got another 5 years of denial, before I finally have to face up to the truth on that one.
   215. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 05:59 PM (#3362368)
Hey snapper, I just meant in general. I wasn't trying to single anyone out.
   216. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:01 PM (#3362371)
Hey snapper, I just meant in general. I wasn't trying to single anyone out.

I know. But I also know I go off the deep end a little now and again. Snark is so easy on teh interwebs. Damn you Al Gore!
   217. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3362377)
I know. But I also know I go off the deep end a little now and again. Snark is so easy on teh interwebs. Damn you Al Gore!

True. I've a written a thousand F-You responses that I just never hit the "submit" button on. I think I got drunk once and called a certain Nats fan on this site a dick in a pique of anger and I've regretted that since. Coming here should be my happy time. Frustration and anger are how I make my living.
   218. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3362380)
Frustration and anger are how I make my living.


Based on yesterday's poop thread, I thought you made your living by monitoring your co-workers' bathroom habits.
   219. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:08 PM (#3362385)
Based on yesterday's poop thread, I thought you made your living by monitoring your co-workers' bathroom habits.

I'm a piker. There are guys in my office who confront the offenders sometimes. Those confrontations are always fun. I just silently rage about how disgusting humans are.
   220. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:10 PM (#3362388)
Come on, GGC. You're one of the more polite people around this place. If you're embarassed about your posts on this thread, your embarassment threshold is way to low.

As a counter, I'm quite sure that I've got a goodly number of posts spread around this site for which I should be much more embarassed than I am.


I may have rubbed Dave the wrong way. I'm not sure why I care, anyways. It's not like I'm gonna change anything with my posts.
   221. robinred Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:10 PM (#3362389)
True. I've a written a thousand F-You responses that I just never hit the "submit" button on.


Doesn't admitting this kind of defeat the purpose of doing it? My advice to is to answer me by saying FUKC YOU and hitting "submit." You'll feel better and have a better bowel movement, too.

Snark is so easy on teh interwebs
.

Yeah, but at least you actually talk to the commie pinkos like me. That buys you some snark.


Based on yesterday's poop thread, I thought you made your living by monitoring your co-workers' bathroom habits


No, that is what he does for "happy time."
   222. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3362396)
My advice to is to answer me by saying FUKC YOU and hitting "submit."

His vision, from the constantly passing bars,
has grown so weary that it cannot hold
anything else. It seems to him there are
a thousand bars, and behind the bars, no world.
   223. robinred Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:19 PM (#3362401)
My advice to is to answer me by saying FUKC YOU and hitting "submit."


The work of the eyes is done. Go now and do the heart-work on the images imprisoned within you.
   224. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3362403)
Ha, no one was expecting this hi-jack!
   225. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:25 PM (#3362408)
Ha, no one was expecting this hi-jack!

Speaking of hijacks, it seems like there hasn't been a decent Met thread on here in ages. I've tried to engage a few times on 2010 roster construction (b/c I think it's a real interesting challenge) and the threads just die.

This season really seems to have taken the starch out of the Mets contingent. It's almost enough to make me feel sorry for them, almost.
   226. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:29 PM (#3362414)
This season really seems to have taken the starch out of the Mets contingent.


If you were a Mets' fan, would you really want to talk about this season? I'd imagine that it's similar to being a Jays' fan, where you just wander around aimlessly, asking "What the hell happened?" except that things were even worse for the Mets than for the Jays.
   227. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:31 PM (#3362416)
This season really seems to have taken the starch out of the Mets contingent. It's almost enough to make me feel sorry for them, almost.

Jeez, just enjoy it while it lasts. Mets fans are easily frightened but they'll soon return and in greater numbers.
   228. robinred Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:31 PM (#3362417)
and the threads just die.


I will assume that the Mets will be the second-most "threaded" team here this off-season, behind the Red Sox. For some Mets fans, I'd guess a Phillies/Yankees WS will be seen as the fitting end to 2009, sort of like spitting on a guy after you stab him 57 times.
   229. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:38 PM (#3362424)
If you were a Mets' fan, would you really want to talk about this season? I'd imagine that it's similar to being a Jays' fan, where you just wander around aimlessly, asking "What the hell happened?" except that things were even worse for the Mets than for the Jays.

Well, I'm the type to analyze a disaster (it must be my economics training) but I can see that.

Jeez, just enjoy it while it lasts. Mets fans are easily frightened but they'll soon return and in greater numbers.

Good point.

BTW Shooty, did you steal the SF Giants roster construction plan for DMB, or is it just who happened to be the best player available when you drafted?
   230. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3362435)
BTW Shooty, did you steal the SF Giants roster construction plan for DMB, or is it just who happened to be the best player available when you drafted?

I have a plan. I swear I do! But, my god, it is an awful lot like the Giants. Ruh-roh.
   231. JJ1986 Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:47 PM (#3362437)
I've tried to engage a few times on 2010 roster construction (b/c I think it's a real interesting challenge) and the threads just die.

Mets should trade Dan Murphy, Brian Stokes and Nelson Figueroa to the White Sox for John Danks. That would be the beginning of a good offseason.
   232. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3362439)
I have a plan. I swear I do! But, my god, it is an awful lot like the Giants. Ruh-roh.

The Giants won 88 games. You could do far worse.
   233. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3362441)
Mets should trade Dan Murphy, Brian Stokes and Nelson Figueroa to the White Sox for John Danks. That would be the beginning of a good offseason.

C'mon be fair. Substitute Castillo for Murphy and eat half his contract.
   234. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:57 PM (#3362451)
I have a plan. I swear I do! But, my god, it is an awful lot like the Giants. Ruh-roh.

I was heading down the same path, Longoria, then 4 pitchers. All based on best available.

For Rds 4 and 5 I had to just take all pitchers off my list.
   235. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3362457)
For Rds 4 and 5 I had to just take all pitchers off my list.


Nice. You draft in front of me. That's one less person I have to worry about stealing the guy I want.
   236. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:01 PM (#3362462)
Guys, we are going to piss everyone off discussing this stuff here. No one cares about our made up baseball teams!
   237. robinred Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:02 PM (#3362466)
Is this the DMB league Gaelan proposed starting? If so, who joined? So, yes, I guess I am interested.
   238. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:04 PM (#3362468)
I have a plan. I swear I do! But, my god, it is an awful lot like the Giants. Ruh-roh.


If I get Michael Tucker will you trade a top pick for him?
   239. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3362469)
If so, who joined?


Me, and a bunch of ######## who keep stealing the players I want.
   240. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:06 PM (#3362471)
Guys, we are going to piss everyone off discussing this stuff here. No one cares about our made up baseball teams!

Is this the DMB league Gaelan proposed starting? If so, who joined? So, yes, I guess I am interested.

Maybe we should try and get our own thread, like a Sox Therapy kind of thing.

It will encourage much more league cameradery and trash talking. :-)
   241. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:06 PM (#3362473)
Me, and a bunch of ######## who keep stealing the players I want.

Step out of the groupthink, ya crybaby. A. Rios is waiting for you...
   242. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:07 PM (#3362474)
A. Rios is waiting for you...


He's going to be waiting a long, long time.
   243. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:10 PM (#3362476)
He's going to be waiting a long, long time.

So you're saying you don't have a jones for him?
   244. RJ in TO Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:11 PM (#3362480)
So you're saying you don't have a jones for him?


Perhaps a Jim Jones.
   245. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:22 PM (#3362485)
rr, I skipped it. Work has been killing me lately. I don't feel that much like spending my off hours in front of a computer. I need to get a notebook or something, anyways. I still have a desktop and when I moved, the best place for me to stick it was the basement. (Mine, not my mom's.) I thought about making it an office, but haven't got around to it yet.
   246. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: October 22, 2009 at 11:36 PM (#3362765)
Another Cameron post that I agree with. Pretty soon, we'll be singing Kumbaya.
   247. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: October 23, 2009 at 12:36 AM (#3362877)
Another Cameron post that I agree with. Pretty soon, we'll be singing Kumbaya.


I agreed with it when I read the headline. Then I read the entry, and I agreed with it again.
   248. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: March 31, 2010 at 05:37 PM (#3489606)
Doug Melvin may "love" Brandon Morrow, and might feel that he HAS to trade JJ Hardy (which I'm still not buying), but it doesn't mean he's going to accept less than full value for Hardy.

Sigh.
   249. AROM Posted: March 31, 2010 at 05:59 PM (#3489635)
So how does Dave's wishlist stack up to the real offseason moves?

I see no reason to budge on my opinion that his 3 player package is not anywhere close to an acceptable offer for John Danks, but they did wind up getting Cliff Lee for mid range prospects. The Johnson, Branyan, and Hudson offers are better than what those players accepted elsewhere. Morrow is probably a better return than Gomez for Hardy. Sheets wound up costing a bit more than that, though with his disastrous spring that might a bullet dodged.

The plan called for going cheap at 3b and lf instead of dumping a sunk cost for Bradley and signing Figgins. Those are Jack Z's advantages. Dave's team has big advantages at DH (Johnson) and shortstop (Hardy). I call Kotchman/Lopez a wash with Branyan/Hudson. Probably doesn't make too much difference either way.
   250. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: May 25, 2010 at 02:59 PM (#3542200)
Imagine how bad the White Sox would be right now if they had taken Mr. Cameron's advice.
   251. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: May 25, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3542205)
Too much schadenfreude will make you go blind.
   252. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: July 09, 2010 at 03:06 AM (#3583022)
Cameron tonight: "Mariners could DFA Jose Lopez after the game and I wouldn't blink. He's that bad right now."

Meanwhile, John Danks tossed a two-hit, no-walk shutout with seven strikeouts.
   253. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 13, 2010 at 11:19 PM (#3588804)
Imagine how bad the White Sox would be right now if they had taken Mr. Cameron's advice.


But what about Jason Vargas?
   254. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: August 31, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4223828)
Vargas could make a case for the most valuable pitcher in Cameron's proposal. Here's a rundown:

Trade Brandon Morrow to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy.
Morrow was actually dealt for Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez - Hardy for Carlos Gomez.
Since then, Morrow's gone 28-23 with a 99 ERA+ in 70 starts. Pitched a bit better than that implies. Made 6.7M over that time ($ #s vary by source).
Hardy made about 18M and hit .254/.300/.426 in 1507 PA (97 OPS+), with solid defense.

Trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe, and Jason Vargas to Chicago for John Danks.
Famously unrealistic proposal.
Danks has made 17.5M over the last three years (and will make a lot more in the future). 26-27 in 68 starts (103 ERA+). Lowe 133 ERA+ in 94.1 innings (mostly with Texas, Cliff Lee deal). Vargas made 7.7M and has produced a 96 ERA+ over 91 starts. Lopez: .237/.266/.354 (71) with bad d.

Sign Nick Johnson to a one year, $9 million contract
5.5M with NYY: .167/.388/.306 (89) in 98 PA.

Sign Orlando Hudson to a two year, $16 million contract
.258/.334/.363 (95) in 1013 PA w/ an average-ish glove (a comedown from where he once was). Made 9M over that time.

Sign Ben Sheets to a one year, $7 million contract
OAK got him for 10M, in what was generally regarded as a huge overpay. 4-9 4.53 in 20 starts (91 ERA+)

Sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $4 million contract
Signed w/ CLE for 1.5M, though SEA traded for him mid-year for Zeke Carrera and Juan Diaz. Hit .237/.323/.487 (124) in 428 PA.
   255. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 31, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4223862)
Well if we're going to revisit this thread:

The 2010 Mariners went 61-101.


Subtract
Cliff Lee (presumably would not be acquired because of Danks) (3.3)
Jason Vargas (2.3)
Jose Lopez (0.4)
Brandon League (acquired for Brandon Morrow) (0.0)
Mark Lowe (0.0)
Milton Bradley (presumably would not be acquired because of Branyan) (-0.2)
Justin Smoak (not acquired for Cliff Lee) (-0.2)
Casey Kotchman (presumably would not be acquired because of Johnson) (-1.1)
=4.5 WAR

Add
John Danks (4.9)
Orlando Hudson (2.6)
Russ Branyan (1.7)
JJ Hardy (1.1)
Ben Sheets (0.0)
Bill Hall (presumably not traded for Casey Kotchman)(-0.1)
Nick Johnson (-0.2)
=10 WAR

Mariners are a 66 win team assuming you could have pulled off the Danks deal.
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