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1. Graham Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4262488)Sean Rodriguez is the type of player that the Rays tend to overvalue; Mike Carp is the type of player that the Rays don't value much at all. That trade will never happen.
-- MWE
Yeah, this -- 7/100?
Is he worth 7/100 even if he can sustain his current production? I know I've always underrated Swisher and just looking at his numbers closely, I further recognize that I am now... but, he's a 31 yo corner OF. A good one, yes (is he even "very good"?) - but to me, the only way I'm spending something approaching that sort of commitment is to a true star on the order of a, I don't know, Ryan Braun or a Manny Rameriz type... I realize you don't get a Ryan Braun or Manny for 7/100 on the open market, but I'm just saying that position scarcity means I'd only spend a premium for a relatively easy spot to fill if I was filling it with a truly premium bat.
I'd do it for a legit CF, a MI, maybe a 3B or a cather... but not for 1B/LF/RF, at least, not a 31 yo one.
That's a really weird contract. Crazy years, but a pretty low AAV.
He's making $10.5M now, and I think, short term, is worth $15M. I'd guess more like 4/60 or 5/75 for Swisher 5/90 if somebody got crazy.
I wouldn't mind the Yankees overpaying for Swisher on a shortish deal.
I'd wager heavily that Carlos Villanueva is gonna get a lot more than 1/4.
It's easy to do that when you always end up being right.
Probably - but I don't think I'd want to be the one that pays it.
Carlos Villanueva is a pitching siren... he seems like he has good stuff, his peripherals are generally very good - except for the gopher balls.
He reminds me a lot of a different model Juan Cruz - a perfectly cromulent pitcher that just always seemed like he should be a lot better than he actually is.
If nothing else, the arrival of the Astros should mean that the Mariners can avoid last place in the AL West, unlike the last three years..
5/90 is more expensive than 7/100. 7/100 is like 5/90 but with a cheap 2/10 tacked on. Except even that even more money gets pushed off further into the future, so even if he had no value in 5 years, just spreading the cost out more by itself could be worth it.
Then again I'm not overly enthralled with Rodriguez (particularly since the M's look set at second and third) or Gimenez either.
As I keep saying, with the new TV money and most of the good ones signed up long-term, there's some crazy money in baseball right now. $/WAR on the FA market is probably gonna be $6 maybe $6.5. Swisher for 3/$51 (say) might not be as nuts as it sounds. If you can tack on another 4 years at $49 (by which time $/WAR might be more along the lines of $7-7.5) you're only asking him to be a 1.5 win nice bench player in the out years. I still can't see anybody giving him 7 but who saw 6/$100 or 7/$119 for Lee and Soriano and that was ages ago.
I suppose you make a similar argument for Vargas. 2/$12 is nothing for a starter. Luke Hochevar gets paid nearly that. And Hafner at 1/$3 ... it's gonna have to be incentive-laden but that's easily worth a shot. And what is Iwakuma's situation?
It is still awesome.
Wouldn't that be good in Seattle? I think Villanueva will be an underrated steal this winter.
These actually seem sane and rational. Not necessarily great moves, but not pie in the sky either. This is boring, I want batshit crazy idea Dave back.
With that being said, I'd expect him to get more than one year, four million. There just aren't many good starting pitching options available as free agents, so the few guys who have recently been non-awful in the role are likely to get heavily bid up.
Which actually is why Melky probably won't be available for $6 million plus incentives. Teams looking for offense will have to hold their noses and pony up.
I'm sure we will be doing it ad nauseum in Sox Therapy this offseason.
Mets plan:
Add a center fielder
Add a right fielder
Maybe add a left fielder
1) Sign Pedro Feliz
2) Win World Series
1) Fire John Farrell, out of a cannon, into the sun
2) Apply for relocation to the AL Central
3) Find Ricky Romero a new supermodel girlfriend
I could maybe see a 3/$51 sort of deal for Swisher, especially for one of the richer teams whose window is right now (Yankees, Detroit, Anaheim?), but asking for 1.5 WAR out of age 35-38 Swisher is probably not realistic. He doesn't have a broad skillset, and in his 8 years as a full time player has already put up 4 seasons of 1.7 WAR or less. That just doesn't look like a guy you'd expect to age very well in his mid-late 30s.
1) Lobby MLB to eliminate the 3B position
2) Drug Casey Coleman and Matt Cain and convince each of them they are the other, have some seedy surgeon perform a Face/Off surgery, profit
3) Temporarily combine Brett Jackson and Starlin Castro into a single batter, once their diametrically opposing holes in approach at the plate have been 'healed' by the other's strengths, separate them back into two players
4) Get the Astros back into the NL Central
1) Lobby MLB to eliminate the 3B position
2) Drug Casey Coleman and Matt Cain and convince each of them they are the other, have some seedy surgeon perform a Face/Off surgery, profit
3) Temporarily combine Brett Jackson and Starlin Castro into a single batter, once their diametrically opposing holes in approach at the plate have been 'healed' by the other's strengths, separate them back into two players
4) Get the Astros back into the NL Central
Meh. It's probably as good a plan as any. Maybe rummage around the Ivy to see if you can pull out an Andre Dawson or a Billy Williams.
1. Buy the Devil Rays.
2. Take all their players, coaches, and staff.
3. Ship all Red Sox players and staff to Tampa.
4. Sell the Devil Rays.
Voila!
Right, so why would Swisher take it? He's better off taking 5/90 and rolling the dice that he's still good, or inflation explodes.
7/100 is too many years for the team, and too low an AAV for the player.
7/100 is probably better for the team, and worse for the player, than 5/90. Having rights to a player for more years is good for the team, not the opposite.
Right, the player won't accept 7 years at <$15M AAV. If you go 7, it's going to be like 7/125.
If the offer is 7/100, Swisher would be better off taking 5/85 from somebody.
Not if age isn't a constant...
What are the chances a 36 yo Swisher gets 2/15 or better for his age 37 & 38 seasons?
I completely forgot he wanted Grandal, too.
What a maroon.
Seriously. Swisher was a coin flip to give you more than 1.7 WAR during his prime. He's more likely to be completely worthless as a player by the time he's 37 than he is to be getting a multi year contract.
1. Decline options on RP Matt Capps and 2b Alexi Casilla
2. Decline option on SP Scott Baker; sign Scott Baker to a 1 year, $4MM (plus incentives) contract
3. Sign SP Brandon McCarthy to a 3-year, $28MM contract
4. Sign 2b Kelly Johnson to a 1 year, $5MM contract
5. Sign CF (ha!) Grady Sizemore to a 1-year, $2MM countract
6. Sign SP Kevin Correia to a 1-year, $1.5MM contract
7. Trade CF Denard Span for SP Ross Detwiler and 1b/OF/ Tyler Moore
And since this plan is based on free agents rather than trades, we can look at the contracts the players actually get and compare them to what Dave thinks the Mariners could have gotten. It's much more susceptible to testing after the fact!
1. Sign Edwin Jackson to a 4 year $44 million deal
2. Non-tender P Luke Hochevar, 2B Chris Getz, C Brayan Pena
3. Sign P Carlos Villanueva to a 2/$8 million deal
4. Acquire P Mark Buerhle in a salary dump for token prospects
5. Murder Jeff Francoeur
1. Sign Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $100 million contract. It's a low pressure situation, he'll hit great in this park, and there aren't that many temptations around, unless he's going to get addicted to mountain biking. Gonzalez-Fowler-Hamilton has the potential to be the best outfield in the league.
2. Move Cuddyer to first base, in a semi-platoon with Helton, who can take over Giambi's old job.
3. Name Giambi hitting coach.
4. Find a young, hungry manager who hasn't managed in the majors before to lend a sense of urgency to the club. Ryne Sandberg would do.
5. Throw Wilin Rosario 100 pitches in the dirt every day during the off-season until he learns how to stop them.
6. Trade Chris Nelson and Tyler Colvin to the Nationals for Ross Detwiler.
7. Go into the season with a rotation of Pomeranz, Chacin, Francis, Detwiler and Nicasio, with Alex White and Tyler Chatwood in long relief, ready to step in.
8. Give Nolan Arenado the job at third base, and Josh Rutledge the job at second.
OPS+ from 2006-2012: 125, 126, 93, 122, 129, 120, 126
And over that 7-year period, from age 25 to 31, he has played between 148 and 157 games every year.
I have to confess, he has been a much better, certainly much more consistent, player than I instinctively thought. It will be interesting to see how he does in the FA market. Doesn't that team in Boston have a bunch of money freed up?
That's where I got the idea that he was available!
ditto
except I don't think Smoak has any trade value at this point either.
I wouldn't sign him to a long-term deal either, but using fWAR he's only had one season below 1.7 WAR (his disaster season with Chicago). Every other year besides his rookie season he's been at 3 WAR or higher. I think he's probably an average or slightly better defender in RF and at 1B (which UZR and TZ agree with), so coupling that with a wRC+ over 120 basically every year and I think rWAR is the one missing on him.
I agree with this. That's why I'd be OK with a high AAV shortish deal from the Yanks. Maybe 4/65?
This sounds like fun, and feasible.
Sign JFK and fdr to add spice tO presidents race.
Maybe give rick ankIel a coaching job
If Tyler Moore does well for the Twins, they'll build a statue of him in Minneapolis.
Colvin had more WAR than Detwiler this year, so by the Dave Cameron Rules, you are HONOR-BOUND to accept my trade proposal. (I should have left Nelson out of it, since his defense brings him to negative WAR.)
I forgot we were playing Dave Cameron rules. I'd have the Royals offer Greg Holland, Jarrod Dyson, Luis Mendoza, and Kelvin Herrera for David Price and the Rays would HAVE to take it because they are actually getting more WAR out of the deal.
Compared to Jose Lopez, he's Walter freakin Johnson!
It was about a lot more than John Danks.
1. It overvalued Jose Lopez to a great degree.
2. Even if the valuation of Lopez was correct, it overvalued average second baseman to a great degree.
3. It overvalued throw-ins (despite Vargas' career success). You can't just add players to a trade until you have equal value.
4. Cameron seemed to think that a 5-win player signed to the correct contract and a 3-win player signed to the correct contract are equal since neither has surplus value, which ignores things like limited roster space and the availability of top talent.
But that makes Jason Vargas into Bob Feller or something.
Similarly it seems that 1/$3 is about as little as you could expect to pay Hafner. (Unless he's in bad shape physically and everyone knows it, in which case 1/$3 isn't much of a bargain.)
It seems like you're trying to have it both ways by saying the performance since then of Lopez affects the plausibility of the trade proposal but the performance of Vargas doesn't.
With 20-20 retrospect, we can say that the White Sox probably should have traded Danks for a 2B after 2009 ... and that the 2B should not have been Jose Lopez.
I say the biggest pay cut is going to go to Jeremy Guthrie. $8.5M? Holy ####### bananas! And the biggest pay increase to Colby Lewis.
Colby Lewis has already signed an extension for less money.
And Jeremy Guthrie was great for the Royals down the stretch, meaning they will massively overpay for him. People on the radio were saying the Royals should offer as high as 3/$24 mill for him which is batshit insane.
No, what everyone was saying at the time was that Lopez wasn't all that valuable because he was an OBA black hole, and Vargas didn't project to be that good going forward either. It wasn't all that plausible a deal at the time, however, had it been executed in real life, it wouldn't have seemed quite as ridiculous in retrospect because of Vargas' performance exceeding expectations.
I feel like Lopez was picked on purpose, but Vargas was picked randomly (there's no discussion of him in the original article or the comments from USS Mariner) and just represented "5th starter." Dave could just as well have said Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Concur. Vargas was a throw in, not a piece that was considered to have real value.
Of course, given his FB tendencies as a LH, it's pretty likely that Vargas would NOT have exceeded expectations in Chicago. Vargas has a career 662 home OPS against, and a 809 on the road.
All I was saying is that if we are looking at the post-proposal performance of Lopez, we should also do that for the other players involved regardless of their status as a throw-in.
You don't need to look at Lopez's performance post-proposal, he wasn't any good at the time. At his (brief) peak, he was a league-averagish 2B.
MLB has shown it doesn't value those at all. League average (and better) 2B typical get 1/5-6 deals in FA. See Hudson, Orlando, who was a much, much better player than Lopez ever was.
Sure, and comparing a league-averageish 2B to John Danks doesn't make Danks look like Walter Johnson...
With hindsight? This would have been not just the worst trade in Reds history, nor the worst in baseball history, it would have lapped the field of "worst trades in sports history".
They have a mighty high bar to climb, considering they traded a 19 year old Christy Mathewson for the shell of Amos Rusie.
Granted this was more an attempt to scam Norfolk out of $5,000 (for whatever reason, the Reds had no interest in Mathewson. Goes down on the list of famous bad scouting calls) but the fact is they had Matty and traded him.
Oh and in the poetic justice department, Norfolk (represented by Monte Ward) sued the Giants and won the $5K. By the time the judgment came down the Giants were owned by the guy who owned the Reds at the time of the scam.
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