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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

USS Mariner: Dave’s 2013 Off-Season Plan

With that said, on to the moves.

Sign OF/1B Nick Swisher to a seven year, $100 million contract.
Sign OF Melky Cabrera to a one year, $6 million (plus incentives) contract .
Sign SP Carlos Villanueva to a one year, $4 million contract.
Sign DH Travis Hafner to a one year, $3 million contract.
Re-sign SP Hisashi Iwakuma to a two year, $10 million contract.
Re-sign SP Jason Vargas to a two year, $12 million contract.
Trade 1B Mike Carp and OF Trayvon Robinson for IF Sean Rodriguez and C Chris Gimenez

Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 10, 2012 at 06:36 PM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hot stove, i have a bridge for sale, mariners

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   1. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4262488)
What happened to his prospect and spare parts for Votto and prospect proposal from last year?!
   2. JJ1986 Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4262495)
So, in even-numbered years Dave proposes a batshit crazy plan and in odd-numbered years he proposes one that couldn't be more boring.
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4262504)
Swisher should scare the heck out of anyone at this stage of his career - I wouldn't want to sign him to anything more than a 3-year deal. He's got the kind of skill set where he could just fall off the cliff in a year or two if he loses any bat speed at all.

Sean Rodriguez is the type of player that the Rays tend to overvalue; Mike Carp is the type of player that the Rays don't value much at all. That trade will never happen.

-- MWE
   4. SteveF Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4262522)
Swisher's birthday is November 25, 1980. I post that because that's the first thing I wanted to know after reading the proposal, and also in case anyone wants to get him a birthday present.
   5. Jim Wisinski Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4262529)
Chris Gimenez? Really?
   6. zonk Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4262539)
Swisher should scare the heck out of anyone at this stage of his career - I wouldn't want to sign him to anything more than a 3-year deal. He's got the kind of skill set where he could just fall off the cliff in a year or two if he loses any bat speed at all.


Yeah, this -- 7/100?

Is he worth 7/100 even if he can sustain his current production? I know I've always underrated Swisher and just looking at his numbers closely, I further recognize that I am now... but, he's a 31 yo corner OF. A good one, yes (is he even "very good"?) - but to me, the only way I'm spending something approaching that sort of commitment is to a true star on the order of a, I don't know, Ryan Braun or a Manny Rameriz type... I realize you don't get a Ryan Braun or Manny for 7/100 on the open market, but I'm just saying that position scarcity means I'd only spend a premium for a relatively easy spot to fill if I was filling it with a truly premium bat.

I'd do it for a legit CF, a MI, maybe a 3B or a cather... but not for 1B/LF/RF, at least, not a 31 yo one.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4262544)
Nick Swisher to a seven year, $100 million contract

That's a really weird contract. Crazy years, but a pretty low AAV.

He's making $10.5M now, and I think, short term, is worth $15M. I'd guess more like 4/60 or 5/75 for Swisher 5/90 if somebody got crazy.

I wouldn't mind the Yankees overpaying for Swisher on a shortish deal.
   8. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 10, 2012 at 08:59 PM (#4262547)
Re-signing Vargas may not be the best idea. Bringing in the left field fences may hurt his effectiveness tremendously. In 14 starts at Safeco, he gave up nine home runs and had a .327 SLP against; in 19 starts on the road he gave up 26 home runs, and had a .495 SLP against. If the new dimensions bring his home stats more in line with his road stats, he's in trouble...
   9. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4262550)
Ugh
   10. Darren Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4262568)
Give Dave this: he puts it out there and lets the chips fall where they may. It's a lot easier sit quietly by.
   11. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4262578)
"He may be stupid, but at least he's aggressive about it!"
   12. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4262581)

I'd wager heavily that Carlos Villanueva is gonna get a lot more than 1/4.
   13. JJ1986 Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4262595)
Give Dave this: he puts it out there and lets the chips fall where they may. It's a lot easier sit quietly by.


It's easy to do that when you always end up being right.
   14. zonk Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4262600)
I'd wager heavily that Carlos Villanueva is gonna get a lot more than 1/4.


Probably - but I don't think I'd want to be the one that pays it.

Carlos Villanueva is a pitching siren... he seems like he has good stuff, his peripherals are generally very good - except for the gopher balls.

He reminds me a lot of a different model Juan Cruz - a perfectly cromulent pitcher that just always seemed like he should be a lot better than he actually is.

   15. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4262601)
Dave's plan is largely based on the belief that the Mariners farm system is going to start paying off in usable major leaguers in a couple of years. I hope he's right!

If nothing else, the arrival of the Astros should mean that the Mariners can avoid last place in the AL West, unlike the last three years..
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4262603)
That deal for Iwakuma sounds way low to me.
   17. JoeHova Posted: October 11, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4263179)
I really like Carlos Villanueva. Unfortunately, he seems incapable of having an entire good year. He'll go 3 months in a row just dominating people and then he'll be absolutely terrible for 2. I hope he's able to be more consistently good for whoever signs him.
   18. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: October 11, 2012 at 03:30 AM (#4263195)
I'd guess more like 4/60 or 5/75 for Swisher 5/90 if somebody got crazy.


5/90 is more expensive than 7/100. 7/100 is like 5/90 but with a cheap 2/10 tacked on. Except even that even more money gets pushed off further into the future, so even if he had no value in 5 years, just spreading the cost out more by itself could be worth it.
   19. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:06 AM (#4263197)
I see no reason at all to trade Carp. The market for him is likely nil, and yet he's only 6 months older than Smoak and has been both a better hitter and fielder than Smoak in his career. _Maybe_ Smoak still has a little bit of that prospect shine left on him, or even if he doesn't you'd still guess he'd fetch more in a trade than Carp. If you're going to move one, I think Smoak makes more sense.

Then again I'm not overly enthralled with Rodriguez (particularly since the M's look set at second and third) or Gimenez either.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: October 11, 2012 at 05:38 AM (#4263200)
The Swisher deal is weird but maybe not insane.

As I keep saying, with the new TV money and most of the good ones signed up long-term, there's some crazy money in baseball right now. $/WAR on the FA market is probably gonna be $6 maybe $6.5. Swisher for 3/$51 (say) might not be as nuts as it sounds. If you can tack on another 4 years at $49 (by which time $/WAR might be more along the lines of $7-7.5) you're only asking him to be a 1.5 win nice bench player in the out years. I still can't see anybody giving him 7 but who saw 6/$100 or 7/$119 for Lee and Soriano and that was ages ago.

I suppose you make a similar argument for Vargas. 2/$12 is nothing for a starter. Luke Hochevar gets paid nearly that. And Hafner at 1/$3 ... it's gonna have to be incentive-laden but that's easily worth a shot. And what is Iwakuma's situation?
   21. MC Skat Kat kann es eigentlich kaum erwarten Posted: October 11, 2012 at 07:51 AM (#4263221)
Any plan for the Mariners that doesn't center around heavy alcohol consumption is doomed to failure.
   22. deputydrew Posted: October 11, 2012 at 08:56 AM (#4263258)
Melky for $6,000,000 plus incentives? I'd think many teams would be in at that price.
   23. Davo Dozier Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:31 AM (#4263293)
These are always really fun to read. I'd like it if more of the team-specific bloggers did them.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4263362)

What happened to his prospect and spare parts for Votto and prospect proposal from last year?!


It is still awesome.

Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal.





Probably - but I don't think I'd want to be the one that pays it.

Carlos Villanueva is a pitching siren... he seems like he has good stuff, his peripherals are generally very good - except for the gopher balls.


Wouldn't that be good in Seattle? I think Villanueva will be an underrated steal this winter.

These actually seem sane and rational. Not necessarily great moves, but not pie in the sky either. This is boring, I want batshit crazy idea Dave back.
   25. RJ in TO Posted: October 11, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4263398)
Carlos Villanueva has been very useful for the Jays over the last couple years. I'd expect his numbers to improve next year, if he can find a team willing to put him into the rotation and leave him there, rather than being split half-and-half between the bullpen and rotation.

With that being said, I'd expect him to get more than one year, four million. There just aren't many good starting pitching options available as free agents, so the few guys who have recently been non-awful in the role are likely to get heavily bid up.
   26. bookbook Posted: October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM (#4263434)
On the one hand, Swisher's potentially fairly meh into his mid-thirties. On the other hand, if you're looking for a bat with this offseason free agent crop, where else are you going to go? Zombie Berkman?

Which actually is why Melky probably won't be available for $6 million plus incentives. Teams looking for offense will have to hold their noses and pony up.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4263467)
These are always really fun to read. I'd like it if more of the team-specific bloggers did them.


I'm sure we will be doing it ad nauseum in Sox Therapy this offseason.
   28. JJ1986 Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4263496)
These are always really fun to read. I'd like it if more of the team-specific bloggers did them.


Mets plan:

Add a center fielder
Add a right fielder
Maybe add a left fielder
   29. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4263523)
I retired from making these recommendations after my fall 2007 advice to the Phillies of
1) Sign Pedro Feliz
2) Win World Series
   30. RJ in TO Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4263525)
Jays plan:

1) Fire John Farrell, out of a cannon, into the sun
2) Apply for relocation to the AL Central
3) Find Ricky Romero a new supermodel girlfriend
   31. The Good Face Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4263549)
As I keep saying, with the new TV money and most of the good ones signed up long-term, there's some crazy money in baseball right now. $/WAR on the FA market is probably gonna be $6 maybe $6.5. Swisher for 3/$51 (say) might not be as nuts as it sounds. If you can tack on another 4 years at $49 (by which time $/WAR might be more along the lines of $7-7.5) you're only asking him to be a 1.5 win nice bench player in the out years. I still can't see anybody giving him 7 but who saw 6/$100 or 7/$119 for Lee and Soriano and that was ages ago.


I could maybe see a 3/$51 sort of deal for Swisher, especially for one of the richer teams whose window is right now (Yankees, Detroit, Anaheim?), but asking for 1.5 WAR out of age 35-38 Swisher is probably not realistic. He doesn't have a broad skillset, and in his 8 years as a full time player has already put up 4 seasons of 1.7 WAR or less. That just doesn't look like a guy you'd expect to age very well in his mid-late 30s.
   32. zonk Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4263563)
Cubs plan:

1) Lobby MLB to eliminate the 3B position
2) Drug Casey Coleman and Matt Cain and convince each of them they are the other, have some seedy surgeon perform a Face/Off surgery, profit
3) Temporarily combine Brett Jackson and Starlin Castro into a single batter, once their diametrically opposing holes in approach at the plate have been 'healed' by the other's strengths, separate them back into two players
4) Get the Astros back into the NL Central


   33. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4263577)
Cubs plan:

1) Lobby MLB to eliminate the 3B position
2) Drug Casey Coleman and Matt Cain and convince each of them they are the other, have some seedy surgeon perform a Face/Off surgery, profit
3) Temporarily combine Brett Jackson and Starlin Castro into a single batter, once their diametrically opposing holes in approach at the plate have been 'healed' by the other's strengths, separate them back into two players
4) Get the Astros back into the NL Central


Meh. It's probably as good a plan as any. Maybe rummage around the Ivy to see if you can pull out an Andre Dawson or a Billy Williams.
   34. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4263623)
Red Sox plan:

1. Buy the Devil Rays.
2. Take all their players, coaches, and staff.
3. Ship all Red Sox players and staff to Tampa.
4. Sell the Devil Rays.

Voila!
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4263679)
5/90 is more expensive than 7/100. 7/100 is like 5/90 but with a cheap 2/10 tacked on. Except even that even more money gets pushed off further into the future, so even if he had no value in 5 years, just spreading the cost out more by itself could be worth it.

Right, so why would Swisher take it? He's better off taking 5/90 and rolling the dice that he's still good, or inflation explodes.

7/100 is too many years for the team, and too low an AAV for the player.
   36. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4263710)
5/90 is more expensive than 7/100. 7/100 is like 5/90 but with a cheap 2/10 tacked on. Except even that even more money gets pushed off further into the future, so even if he had no value in 5 years, just spreading the cost out more by itself could be worth it.

Right, so why would Swisher take it? He's better off taking 5/90 and rolling the dice that he's still good, or inflation explodes.

7/100 is too many years for the team, and too low an AAV for the player.


7/100 is probably better for the team, and worse for the player, than 5/90. Having rights to a player for more years is good for the team, not the opposite.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4263717)
7/100 is probably better for the team, and worse for the player, than 5/90. Having rights to a player for more years is good for the team, not the opposite.

Right, the player won't accept 7 years at <$15M AAV. If you go 7, it's going to be like 7/125.

If the offer is 7/100, Swisher would be better off taking 5/85 from somebody.
   38. zonk Posted: October 11, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4263791)
7/100 is probably better for the team, and worse for the player, than 5/90. Having rights to a player for more years is good for the team, not the opposite.

Right, the player won't accept 7 years at <$15M AAV. If you go 7, it's going to be like 7/125.

If the offer is 7/100, Swisher would be better off taking 5/85 from somebody.


Not if age isn't a constant...

What are the chances a 36 yo Swisher gets 2/15 or better for his age 37 & 38 seasons?
   39. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: October 11, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4263828)
Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal.


I completely forgot he wanted Grandal, too.

What a maroon.

   40. The Good Face Posted: October 11, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4263895)
Not if age isn't a constant...

What are the chances a 36 yo Swisher gets 2/15 or better for his age 37 & 38 seasons?


Seriously. Swisher was a coin flip to give you more than 1.7 WAR during his prime. He's more likely to be completely worthless as a player by the time he's 37 than he is to be getting a multi year contract.
   41. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4263907)
Frankly I find the idea of giving Nick Swisher a 7 year deal laughable, even at $100 million. He's just not that good, and he's much too old for it. I think the odds are good he'll be out of baseball before 7 years are up.
   42. cardsfanboy Posted: October 11, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4264174)
I think that it's good that Dave puts out a specific plan out there, from memory he has in the past under priced the contracts or massively overrated what he could probably get in the trades, but at least he is willing to give concrete examples of what he would look into doing.
   43. Davo Dozier Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4264237)
This irrational Twins Fan's 2013 Off-Season Plan:

1. Decline options on RP Matt Capps and 2b Alexi Casilla
2. Decline option on SP Scott Baker; sign Scott Baker to a 1 year, $4MM (plus incentives) contract
3. Sign SP Brandon McCarthy to a 3-year, $28MM contract
4. Sign 2b Kelly Johnson to a 1 year, $5MM contract
5. Sign CF (ha!) Grady Sizemore to a 1-year, $2MM countract
6. Sign SP Kevin Correia to a 1-year, $1.5MM contract
7. Trade CF Denard Span for SP Ross Detwiler and 1b/OF/ Tyler Moore

   44. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4264280)
I think that it's good that Dave puts out a specific plan out there, from memory he has in the past under priced the contracts or massively overrated what he could probably get in the trades, but at least he is willing to give concrete examples of what he would look into doing.


And since this plan is based on free agents rather than trades, we can look at the contracts the players actually get and compare them to what Dave thinks the Mariners could have gotten. It's much more susceptible to testing after the fact!
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4264367)
Royals:

1. Sign Edwin Jackson to a 4 year $44 million deal
2. Non-tender P Luke Hochevar, 2B Chris Getz, C Brayan Pena
3. Sign P Carlos Villanueva to a 2/$8 million deal
4. Acquire P Mark Buerhle in a salary dump for token prospects
5. Murder Jeff Francoeur

   46. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4264463)
Rockies:

1. Sign Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $100 million contract. It's a low pressure situation, he'll hit great in this park, and there aren't that many temptations around, unless he's going to get addicted to mountain biking. Gonzalez-Fowler-Hamilton has the potential to be the best outfield in the league.
2. Move Cuddyer to first base, in a semi-platoon with Helton, who can take over Giambi's old job.
3. Name Giambi hitting coach.
4. Find a young, hungry manager who hasn't managed in the majors before to lend a sense of urgency to the club. Ryne Sandberg would do.
5. Throw Wilin Rosario 100 pitches in the dirt every day during the off-season until he learns how to stop them.
6. Trade Chris Nelson and Tyler Colvin to the Nationals for Ross Detwiler.
7. Go into the season with a rotation of Pomeranz, Chacin, Francis, Detwiler and Nicasio, with Alex White and Tyler Chatwood in long relief, ready to step in.
8. Give Nolan Arenado the job at third base, and Josh Rutledge the job at second.
   47. Davo Dozier Posted: October 11, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4264513)
46--I'm sorry, but by that point, the Twins will have already traded Denard Span for Ross Detwiler.
   48. I Am Not a Number Posted: October 11, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4264539)
I think Swisher has what Bill James would call old player skills, and such players tend not to age well, so 7 years sounds especially crazy. Interestingly, Swisher's career, starting from his 2nd year, has been insanely consistent with only one dud in the bunch.

OPS+ from 2006-2012: 125, 126, 93, 122, 129, 120, 126

And over that 7-year period, from age 25 to 31, he has played between 148 and 157 games every year.

I have to confess, he has been a much better, certainly much more consistent, player than I instinctively thought. It will be interesting to see how he does in the FA market. Doesn't that team in Boston have a bunch of money freed up?
   49. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 11, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4264578)
46--I'm sorry, but by that point, the Twins will have already traded Denard Span for Ross Detwiler.


That's where I got the idea that he was available!
   50. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 11, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4264630)
I see no reason at all to trade Carp. The market for him is likely nil, and yet he's only 6 months older than Smoak and has been both a better hitter and fielder than Smoak in his career. _Maybe_ Smoak still has a little bit of that prospect shine left on him, or even if he doesn't you'd still guess he'd fetch more in a trade than Carp. If you're going to move one, I think Smoak makes more sense.


ditto
except I don't think Smoak has any trade value at this point either.
   51. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 11, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4264762)
I could maybe see a 3/$51 sort of deal for Swisher, especially for one of the richer teams whose window is right now (Yankees, Detroit, Anaheim?), but asking for 1.5 WAR out of age 35-38 Swisher is probably not realistic. He doesn't have a broad skillset, and in his 8 years as a full time player has already put up 4 seasons of 1.7 WAR or less. That just doesn't look like a guy you'd expect to age very well in his mid-late 30s.


I wouldn't sign him to a long-term deal either, but using fWAR he's only had one season below 1.7 WAR (his disaster season with Chicago). Every other year besides his rookie season he's been at 3 WAR or higher. I think he's probably an average or slightly better defender in RF and at 1B (which UZR and TZ agree with), so coupling that with a wRC+ over 120 basically every year and I think rWAR is the one missing on him.
   52. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4264813)
I wouldn't sign him to a long-term deal either, but using fWAR he's only had one season below 1.7 WAR (his disaster season with Chicago). Every other year besides his rookie season he's been at 3 WAR or higher. I think he's probably an average or slightly better defender in RF and at 1B (which UZR and TZ agree with), so coupling that with a wRC+ over 120 basically every year and I think rWAR is the one missing on him.

I agree with this. That's why I'd be OK with a high AAV shortish deal from the Yanks. Maybe 4/65?
   53. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4265882)
I've always wanted to arrange some sort of Winter Meetings "War Games"-type simulation where we have 30 volunteers to stand in as each GM, and one volunteer to act as the agent for all prominent free agents. Then let everyone try to negotiate trades and free agent contracts and see who ends up where and for how much. I wonder if we'd pay far less than the market, or if we would get caught up in the bidding too.
   54. fra paolo Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4265904)
I've always wanted to arrange some sort of Winter Meetings "War Games"-type simulation where we have 30 volunteers to stand in as each GM, and one volunteer to act as the agent for all prominent free agents.

This sounds like fun, and feasible.
   55. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4265921)
Nats plan: laugh at Davo and toms trade offers. Look at roster already signed for next year. Feel pretty good.

Sign JFK and fdr to add spice tO presidents race.

Maybe give rick ankIel a coaching job
   56. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4265932)
7. Trade CF Denard Span for SP Ross Detwiler and 1b/OF/ Tyler Moore


If Tyler Moore does well for the Twins, they'll build a statue of him in Minneapolis.
   57. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4265933)
Nats plan: laugh at Davo and toms trade offers.


Colvin had more WAR than Detwiler this year, so by the Dave Cameron Rules, you are HONOR-BOUND to accept my trade proposal. (I should have left Nelson out of it, since his defense brings him to negative WAR.)
   58. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4265939)
The Nats are going to have some extra money if Jackson, Lannan, LaRoche and Wang leave this offseason. I'd be surprised if they don't sign Michael Bourn.
   59. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4265958)
Really? Ha. War is dumb.
   60. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4265964)
I'd expect them to try to keep laroche. The organization loves him
   61. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4265971)

Colvin had more WAR than Detwiler this year, so by the Dave Cameron Rules, you are HONOR-BOUND to accept my trade proposal. (I should have left Nelson out of it, since his defense brings him to negative WAR.)


I forgot we were playing Dave Cameron rules. I'd have the Royals offer Greg Holland, Jarrod Dyson, Luis Mendoza, and Kelvin Herrera for David Price and the Rays would HAVE to take it because they are actually getting more WAR out of the deal.
   62. Nasty Nate Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4265995)
If aliens learned about baseball from this site they would think that John Danks was some legendary pitcher, jeesh.
   63. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4266013)
If aliens learned about baseball from this site they would think that John Danks was some legendary pitcher, jeesh.

Compared to Jose Lopez, he's Walter freakin Johnson!
   64. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4266020)
If aliens learned about baseball from this site they would think that John Danks was some legendary pitcher, jeesh.


It was about a lot more than John Danks.

1. It overvalued Jose Lopez to a great degree.
2. Even if the valuation of Lopez was correct, it overvalued average second baseman to a great degree.
3. It overvalued throw-ins (despite Vargas' career success). You can't just add players to a trade until you have equal value.
4. Cameron seemed to think that a 5-win player signed to the correct contract and a 3-win player signed to the correct contract are equal since neither has surplus value, which ignores things like limited roster space and the availability of top talent.
   65. Nasty Nate Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4266025)
Compared to Jose Lopez, he's Walter freakin Johnson!


But that makes Jason Vargas into Bob Feller or something.
   66. #6bid is partially elite Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4266031)
It seems like a lot of these contracts are at the absolute bottom of the expected range. I mean you might get Melky for 1/$6. But there are 29 other GMs and why can't one of them replicate Cameron's thought processes about Melky having produced while clean and possibly having upside? So he might also go for 2/$25.

Similarly it seems that 1/$3 is about as little as you could expect to pay Hafner. (Unless he's in bad shape physically and everyone knows it, in which case 1/$3 isn't much of a bargain.)
   67. Nasty Nate Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4266036)
1. It overvalued Jose Lopez to a great degree.
.
.
.
3. It overvalued throw-ins (despite Vargas' career success). You can't just add players to a trade until you have equal value.


It seems like you're trying to have it both ways by saying the performance since then of Lopez affects the plausibility of the trade proposal but the performance of Vargas doesn't.

With 20-20 retrospect, we can say that the White Sox probably should have traded Danks for a 2B after 2009 ... and that the 2B should not have been Jose Lopez.
   68. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4266039)
Free Agent Pitchers

I say the biggest pay cut is going to go to Jeremy Guthrie. $8.5M? Holy ####### bananas! And the biggest pay increase to Colby Lewis.
   69. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4266041)

I say the biggest pay cut is going to go to Jeremy Guthrie. $8.5M? Holy ####### bananas! And the biggest pay increase to Colby Lewis.


Colby Lewis has already signed an extension for less money.

And Jeremy Guthrie was great for the Royals down the stretch, meaning they will massively overpay for him. People on the radio were saying the Royals should offer as high as 3/$24 mill for him which is batshit insane.


It seems like you're trying to have it both ways by saying the performance since then of Lopez affects the plausibility of the trade proposal but the performance of Vargas doesn't.


No, what everyone was saying at the time was that Lopez wasn't all that valuable because he was an OBA black hole, and Vargas didn't project to be that good going forward either. It wasn't all that plausible a deal at the time, however, had it been executed in real life, it wouldn't have seemed quite as ridiculous in retrospect because of Vargas' performance exceeding expectations.
   70. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4266044)
It seems like you're trying to have it both ways by saying the performance since then of Lopez affects the plausibility of the trade proposal but the performance of Vargas doesn't.


I feel like Lopez was picked on purpose, but Vargas was picked randomly (there's no discussion of him in the original article or the comments from USS Mariner) and just represented "5th starter." Dave could just as well have said Ryan Rowland-Smith.
   71. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4266061)
I feel like Lopez was picked on purpose, but Vargas was picked randomly (there's no discussion of him in the original article or the comments from USS Mariner) and just represented "5th starter." Dave could just as well have said Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Concur. Vargas was a throw in, not a piece that was considered to have real value.
   72. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4266067)
No, what everyone was saying at the time was that Lopez wasn't all that valuable because he was an OBA black hole, and Vargas didn't project to be that good going forward either. It wasn't all that plausible a deal at the time, however, had it been executed in real life, it wouldn't have seemed quite as ridiculous in retrospect because of Vargas' performance exceeding expectations.

Of course, given his FB tendencies as a LH, it's pretty likely that Vargas would NOT have exceeded expectations in Chicago. Vargas has a career 662 home OPS against, and a 809 on the road.
   73. Nasty Nate Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4266085)
I feel like Lopez was picked on purpose, but Vargas was picked randomly (there's no discussion of him in the original article or the comments from USS Mariner) and just represented "5th starter." Dave could just as well have said Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Concur. Vargas was a throw in, not a piece that was considered to have real value.


All I was saying is that if we are looking at the post-proposal performance of Lopez, we should also do that for the other players involved regardless of their status as a throw-in.
   74. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4266109)
All I was saying is that if we are looking at the post-proposal performance of Lopez, we should also do that for the other players involved regardless of their status as a throw-in.

You don't need to look at Lopez's performance post-proposal, he wasn't any good at the time. At his (brief) peak, he was a league-averagish 2B.

MLB has shown it doesn't value those at all. League average (and better) 2B typical get 1/5-6 deals in FA. See Hudson, Orlando, who was a much, much better player than Lopez ever was.
   75. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4266125)
I think at the time, the odds that Lopez was being overvalued were good (>50%) while the odds that Vargas would become a good pitcher were miniscule.
   76. Nasty Nate Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4266135)
You don't need to look at Lopez's performance post-proposal, he wasn't any good at the time. At his (brief) peak, he was a league-averagish 2B.


Sure, and comparing a league-averageish 2B to John Danks doesn't make Danks look like Walter Johnson...
   77. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 12, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4266255)
Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal.
Great googly-moogly!!! You don't even need to know how things look in hindsight (Pineda didn't pitch this year, League is a middle reliever, Figgins was even worse in '12 than in '11 (who'd have thought that???), and Triunfel is losing his prospectness because he can't hit; I missed that Halman was murdered in the off-season) to see this was laughable.

With hindsight? This would have been not just the worst trade in Reds history, nor the worst in baseball history, it would have lapped the field of "worst trades in sports history".


   78. Ron J2 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4266356)
This would have been not just the worst trade in Reds history


They have a mighty high bar to climb, considering they traded a 19 year old Christy Mathewson for the shell of Amos Rusie.

Granted this was more an attempt to scam Norfolk out of $5,000 (for whatever reason, the Reds had no interest in Mathewson. Goes down on the list of famous bad scouting calls) but the fact is they had Matty and traded him.

Oh and in the poetic justice department, Norfolk (represented by Monte Ward) sued the Giants and won the $5K. By the time the judgment came down the Giants were owned by the guy who owned the Reds at the time of the scam.

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