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Monday, May 16, 2011

Value Over Replacement Grit: Has There Ever Been a Totally Alphabetical Batting Order?

Dunno…but Wert remains the only player across on the keyboard.

Back to our pursuit . . . On May 12, 1934, with his last-place Cincinnati Reds team having scored a league-low 76 runs in 21 games, sitting at 5-16 and already nine games back of first place Chicago, player/manager Bob O’Farrell had to do something. O’Farrell had previously acted as player/manager for the 1927 Cardinals, guiding them to a 2nd place finish (92-60).

But the ’34 Reds were in the process of heading for their fifth straight season of sub-.400 baseball. They would finish 1934 in the bottom half of the league in every offensive category, despite the presence of Hall of Famer Jim Bottomley and star catcher Ernie Lombardi.

O’Farrell used 64 different lineups during 1934, but the names he listed on that May day were unique. They comprised the ONLY instance in major league history of an entirely alphabetical batting order:

Sparky Adams 3B
Linc Blakely LF
Jim Bottomley 1B
Chick Hafey CF
Mark Koenig 2B
Johnny Moore RF
Bob O’Farrell C
Gordon Slade SS
Allyn Stout P

Alas, Stout wasn’t . . . lasting 2/3 of an inning and giving up three hits and two walks, and the Reds, despite picking up 12 hits, ended up losing 8-2 in a swift 2:13.

And that’s it . . . there hasn’t been another lineup featuring an A-to-Z theme since. I’m hoping some lexicographic-leaning manager takes a chance again soon.

Repoz Posted: May 16, 2011 at 07:48 PM | 53 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: history

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1. smileyy Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3829101)

So that means the alphabetical batting order never actually hit, top-to-bottom?

2. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:10 PM (#3829109)

Red Sox:

Crawford
Drew
Ellsbury
Gonzalez
Lowrie
Ortiz
Pedroia
Saltalamchia
Youkilis

I would guess most end up looking like that. A few good spots, and a couple of big misses.

3. Austin Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:11 PM (#3829110)

I never would have guessed that this was so rare.

4. BDC

Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:15 PM (#3829115)

Interesting that it basically never happens, since it must be possible for every lineup. (It's not like one of those joke lineups where everybody has to be a switch-hitter, or born on a Tuesday, or something.)

If Ron Washington submits this one in Chicago tonight, for instance:

Andrus 6
Beltre 5
Chavez 8
Davis 3
Kinsler 4
Moreland 9
Murphy 7
Napoli 0
Torrealba 2

And that lineup doesn't strain credulity very much; flip Beltre and Chavez and it would be very plausible. Unfortunately Michael Young is likely to be in there every day, and never batting 9th :(

5. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:20 PM (#3829121)

I am not surprised. All you need is a slugger with a name towards the bottom of the alphabet or a leadoff hitter whose name begins with something past G or so to throw off the order. Also, before the DH, pitchers would have a greater impact than a DH.

6. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#3829123)

How would one search this? BBREF or Retrosheet? Would have to do it manually?

7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3829126)

I would detect little difference with the Royals

2B Aviles
3B Betimet
DH Butler
CF Cabrera
SS Escobar
RF Francoeur
LF Gordon
1B Hosmer
C Treanor

IF the Royals would acquire Josh Wilson and play him at SS, that would actually be a pretty plausible lineup.

8. Mark Armour Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:25 PM (#3829131)

What about once the game is underway and replacements have been made? This would increase the odds somewhat.

9. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:37 PM (#3829139)

Cleveland - Definite possibility (if Santana and Sizemore sit, and O.Cabrera is injured):
Brantley (OF)
A.Cabrera (SS)
Choo (OF)
Hafner (DH)
Hannahan (3B)
Kearns (OF)
Laporta (1B)
Marson (C)
Valbuena (2B)

It's not out of the realm of reality that it could be like this (if Choo hits like 2008-2010 version)

10. flournoy Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#3829149)

Gonzalez SS
Heyward RF
Hinske 1B
Jones 3B
McCann C
McLouth CF
Prado LF
Uggla 2B
Venters P

That's the Braves' best bet. I had to bench Freeman, drop Uggla and Prado to unlikely spots, and give Venters a start. (Or they could call up Arodys Vizcaino, or sign some pitcher named Williams or something.) Not gonna happen for this team.

11. Justin T is expanding the aperture of awareness Posted: May 16, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#3829158)

Barton 1B
Crisp CF
DeJesus RF
Jackson LF
Kouzmanoff 3B
LaRoche 2B
Matsui DH
Pennington SS
Suzuki C

Not terrible except for Suzuki 9th.

12. Sweet Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#3829174)

Unlikely but not out of the question for the Cubs this year:

Barney (or Baker)
Byrd
Castro
Colvin (or Fukudome)
Pena
Ramirez
Soriano
Soto
Zambrano (or Wells)

13. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:10 PM (#3829176)

I never would have guessed that this was so rare.

Well, the odds of hitting an Alphabetical lineup by chance are 362879 to 1.

14. smileyy Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:13 PM (#3829181)

I'm guessing MLB would put the kibosh on an explicit attempt to do this late in the season when a team's out of the running. But maybe not -- there were a couple all-9-positions-in-one-game games in the not-too-distant past.

15. Craig Calcaterra Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#3829186)

The Pixies did this with their set list once, but I suppose that's an easier trick to do.

16. Steve Treder Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#3829195)

Your 1927 Yankees:

1. Collins, C
2. Combs, CF
3. Dugan, 3B
4. Gehrig, 1B
5. Keonig, SS
6. Lazzeri, 2B
7. Meusel, LF
8. Ruth, RF
9. Shocker, P

Ya gotta admit, it would have been AWESOME.

17. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#3829198)

I would not have guessed it was so rare either.

Well, the odds of hitting an Alphabetical lineup by chance are 362879 to 1.

According to <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110509&c>Anthony Castrovince</a>, there's been 396,000 regular-season games so far. Each including two lineups. So by now it should have happened...twice.

18. Jeltzandini Posted: May 16, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3829243)

According to Anthony Castrovince, there's been 396,000 regular-season games so far. Each including two lineups. So by now it should have happened...twice.

Think he doublecounted. Adding up all the team games at baseball-reference, there have been 396470 lineups, so half as many games.

So one is just what would be expected, though zero or two would be unsurprising.

19. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: May 16, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#3829247)

According to Anthony Castrovince, there's been 396,000 regular-season games so far. Each including two lineups. So by now it should have happened...twice.

But how many of those were with distinct lineups? It's not like every game is a random lineup shuffle, quite the opposite.

20. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 16, 2011 at 10:21 PM (#3829258)

On a side note, while I was researching 1918 starting lineups I found a few games -- I think involving the Giants -- where the batting order by position went rf cf lf ss 3b 2b 1b c p except for two spots... I think maybe 1b was flipped with 2b or c. Never did find one that went in strictly numerical descending order. That would be a pretty cool find.

21. OCF Posted: May 16, 2011 at 10:57 PM (#3829288)

Your 1927 Yankees:

1. Collins, C
2. Combs, CF
3. Dugan, 3B
4. Gehrig, 1B
5. Keonig, SS
6. Lazzeri, 2B
7. Meusel, LF
8. Ruth, RF
9. Shocker, P

I had to go look for other possible pitchers, but their primary starters were mostly pretty late in the alphabet (Hoyt, and then P or later). Too bad - I wanted a B pitcher to propose going reverse alphabetic.

22. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 16, 2011 at 11:09 PM (#3829301)

In this vein, there's been one team with three "Z" surnames on its active playing roster. No idea whether they ever batted 7-8-9.

23. dianagram Posted: May 16, 2011 at 11:13 PM (#3829307)

I'm the author of the article referenced above, so let me comment on a few items raised:
As I mentioned in the post, I collapsed all the Retrosheet game logs into one huge file (nearly 200,000 records), and opened it in Excel. I then did a lot of @IF formulas to compare the playerID of the 1st batter in the lineup to the 2nd (and so on), and had Excel count up the instances of the 2nd name being after the first alphabetically.

As for the # of game, I am 99% certain that the 396,000 games quoted by Castrovince counts BOTH teams. Take a look at the GAMES column in the following link:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/pitch.shtml

Realize that on any given day, only 15 games can be played ... multiply that by 162, and you get 2,430 games .... and the totals in the B-R link show numbers in the 4800s, which has to reflect the totals of BOTH teams in each of those 2,430 matchups.

(I mention in my piece that I have records of nearly 200,000 games, or 400,000 lineups.)

24. Der_K Posted: May 16, 2011 at 11:43 PM (#3829343)

But how many of those were with distinct lineups? It's not like every game is a random lineup shuffle, quite the opposite.
For this reason, I'd suspect the median expected outcome would be 0 games, not one (or more).

25. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: May 17, 2011 at 12:08 AM (#3829390)

If a batting order were put together randomly, then the chance of it being alphabetical would be 1/9!. 9! = 362880. Considering that there are 4860 lineups put together per year, then this would result in an expected value equal to occurrence once every 75 years. (This is if there are 4860 lineups per year. Before 1998 there were fewer)

Of course, since lineups tend to be repeated, the expected value would be the same but the probability of it never happening is greater. I am not surprised that it's happened only once.

26. smileyy Posted: May 17, 2011 at 12:16 AM (#3829403)

So which current or historical lineup would suffer the least dropoff (or most improvement) from being arranged alphabetically?

27. dianagram Posted: May 17, 2011 at 12:46 AM (#3829447)

[25]

I also mentioned that in my article :-)

28. Der_K Posted: May 17, 2011 at 02:46 AM (#3829689)

Finally read TFA - nice job, Ms. Firstman.
Out of curosity, how many distinct lineups were there?

29. Walt Davis Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:35 AM (#3829967)

Of course, since lineups tend to be repeated, the expected value would be the same but the probability of it never happening is greater.

And in the NL, the pitcher is (almost) always going to bat 9th so it's only possible on days when the starter is near the end of the alphabet.

But I was hoping this thread was going to go one of several ways:

a) actual lineups in reverse numeric order by defensive position (that's a crappy 1B)

b) actual lineups in numeric order by uniform number

c) all-time great "plausible" alphabetic lineups -- i.e. the leadoff hitter has to be a great leadoff hitter; somebody like Ruth has to hit 3rd or 4th, etc. (Tip: Cy Young will be your starting pitcher and Luke Appling wouldn't be a bad choice for lead off man. I'm trying to decide if hitting Whitaker 8th would be cheating ... I think probably so. Let's say they have to have hit in that position in the order for at least 1/3 of their career PA ... then make it 1/2 if that gets too easy.)

d) all-time great lineups by letter: Appling, Aaron, Ashburn, Appier is a start.

30. dianagram Posted: May 17, 2011 at 11:50 AM (#3829996)

[28]

Thanks!

As for the # of unique lineups ... that might take a bit of work. (But its worth looking into)

31. Tike Redman's Shattered Dreams (shayborg) Posted: May 17, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#3830418)

It's basically impossible with this year's Pirates (though the run production can't get any worse so it may be worth a shot), and I have to pretend it's an interleague game because no pitcher on the roster has a name starting with a letter after 'V'.

6 D'Arnaud (AAA)
9 Diaz
0 Doumit
8 McCutchen
3 Overbay
2 Snyder
7 Tabata
4 Walker
5 Wood

32. Steve Treder Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:12 PM (#3830445)

d) all-time great lineups by letter: Appling, Aaron, Ashburn, Appier is a start.

OK, I'll bite:

1B: Anson
2B: Alomar
SS: Appling
3B: ?
RF: Aaron
CF: Ashburn
LF: Averill
C: ?
P: Appier

33. BDC

Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:25 PM (#3830467)

it's only possible on days when the starter is near the end of the alphabet

George Zuverink missed a chance at immortality.

34. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:34 PM (#3830488)

d) all-time great lineups by letter: Appling, Aaron, Ashburn, Appier is a start.

I get the M's. I don't think they can be beat.

1B: McCovey or Mize or McGwire
2B: Morgan
SS: Maranville
3B: Mathews
LF: Medwick or Minoso
CF: Mays
RF: Mantle. yeah, so sue me. he's on the team
C: Mauer
DH: Martinez or Molitor
SP: Maddux
SP: Mathewson
SP: P. Martinez
SP: Marichal
SP: D. Martinez
RP: Randy Myers
RP: Jeff Montgomery
RP: Firpo Marberry
RP: Mike Marshall
RP: Tug McGraw
RP: Carlos Marmol

MGR: John McGraw

Edit: The rich get richer. Put Musial in LF.

35. Meatwads stronger now, ready for the house Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:41 PM (#3830505)

What about using any streach of 9 players in a row for an all time team ( ie you start with say ruth or whatever and take the next 8 guys after) is it even possible to create a full team this way

36. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:47 PM (#3830516)

All U team:

1B: Willie Upshaw
2B Chase Utley
SS: Jose Uribe
3B: Juan Uribe
LF: Del Unser
CF: B.J. Upton
RF: Justin Upton
CV: Bob Uecker
DH: Dan Uggla

SP: George Uhle
SP: Tom Underwood
RP: Ugueth Urbina
RP: Cecil Upshaw

MGR: Bob Unglaub

37. Meatwads stronger now, ready for the house Posted: May 17, 2011 at 06:57 PM (#3830532)

106 people in baseball have had alast name starting with y 40 of them have thename of young

38. Meatwads stronger now, ready for the house Posted: May 17, 2011 at 07:00 PM (#3830537)

And 107 johnson's!

39. dianagram Posted: May 17, 2011 at 07:27 PM (#3830574)

Look at what I started! :-)

As for unique lineups in history ... that is something I'm going to tackle over the next few days.

40. Matthew E Posted: May 17, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3830582)

MGR Frank Quilici

C Humberto Quintero
C Jamie Quirk

1B Robb Quinlan
2B Joe Quinn
SS Rey Quinones
3B Luis Quinones

OF Jim Qualls
OF Carlos Quintana
OF Carlos Quentin
DH Mark Quinn

P Jack Quinn
P Mel Queen
P Mel Queen
P Ruben Quevedo
RP Paul Quantrill
RP Dan Quisenberry
RP Chad Qualls

It's possible that this lineup can be improved upon.

41. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 17, 2011 at 07:44 PM (#3830592)

I would move Mel Queen up to second in the pitching rotation, and bump down Mel Queen.

42. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 17, 2011 at 07:57 PM (#3830604)

Killer B's?

C: Berra or Bench
1B: Bagwell
2B: Biggio
SS: Banks
3B: Brett or Boggs
LF: Bonds
CF: Brett Butler
RF: Bonds

SP: Blyleven
SP: Bunning
SP: Brown
SP: Brown
SP: Bender
RP: Benitez
RP: Beck
RP: Heath Bell
RP: Pedro Borbon ("Now batting for Pedro Borbon, Manny MOTA, MOTA, Mota, mota")

MGR: Bochy

Lineup's pretty impressive, but the pitching's a little weak.

43. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: May 17, 2011 at 08:01 PM (#3830608)

What we need is an all-Molina lineup.

44. Sweatpants Posted: May 17, 2011 at 08:10 PM (#3830621)

Not possible - Molina DNA allows them to play only one position.

45. Craig in MN Posted: May 17, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3830643)

Batting leadoff for the Twins: Drew Butera! Dammit. OK, bench him...next...Casilla. No! Cuddyer. I give up.

46. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 17, 2011 at 08:27 PM (#3830646)

What we need is an all-Molina lineup.

How long until Elijah Dukes's kids are all grown up and ready to ~~play~~ brawl?

47. Walt Davis Posted: May 18, 2011 at 10:50 AM (#3831031)

Campanella or Carter
Will Clark or Norm Cash
Carew
Concepcion
Cey
J Clark
Campana (it's a Cubs joke ... let's go with Cobb)
Clemente
Clemens

Westrum? Jimmie Wilson? Ernie Whitt? Earl Williams?
Bob Watson or Bill White
Whitaker
Wagner
M Williams
T Williams
Bernie Williams or Devon White or (peak) Hack Wilson
Billy Williams or Larry Walker
Welch or Willis or Wynn

Not a particularly great team but the idea of Wagner and Williams in the same lineup has its appeal. With Ted in LF and Billy in RF, I think Devon would be pretty busy; Walker in RF gives you a bit more flexibility in CF.

48. dianagram Posted: May 26, 2011 at 12:42 AM (#3837666)

My followup post on batting orders in fielding position number order (both 1-9 and 9-1)
http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/2011/05/25/lineups-from-1-to-9/

49. OaklandAs Posted: May 26, 2011 at 01:11 AM (#3837729)

If the Diamondbacks ever decide to rest JUpton and CYoung in the same game, they could use this lineup, which looks fairly reasonable:

LF Bloomquist
SS Drew
2B Johnson
1B Miranda
C Montero
RF Nady
CF Parra
3B Roberts
P Saunders

50. AJM Posted: May 26, 2011 at 01:38 AM (#3837777)

Mets can't do it this year. Reyes leads off, Wright and Bay bat in the middle of the order, and they don't have any starting pitchers near the end of the alphabet.

51. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Fielder Posted: May 26, 2011 at 01:42 AM (#3837787)

The R's wouldn't be bad, either.

C: Roseboro
1B: Rose
2B: J. Robinson
3B: A-Rod
SS: Reese or Rizzuto
LF: F. Robinson
CF: Raines
RF: Ruth
DH: M. Ramirez

SP: R. Roberts
SP: Joe Rogan
SP: Nolan Ryan
SP: Hoss Radburn
SP: Rich Reuschel

RP: F-Rod
RP: Reardon
RP: Righetti
CL: Rivera

52. Downtown Bookie

Posted: May 26, 2011 at 02:10 AM (#3837849)

Mets can't do it this year.

Yeah, but it was possible in '69:

1) Tommie Agee RF
2) Ken Boswell 2B
3) Wayne Garrett SS
4) Cleon Jones LF
5) Ed Kranepool 1B
6) J C Martin C
7) Amos Otis CF
8) Bobby Pfeil 3B
9) Tom Seaver (or Nolan Ryan) P

DB

53. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: May 26, 2011 at 02:18 AM (#3837855)

C: Chief Zimmer
1B: Todd Zeile
2B: Ben Zobrist
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Don Zimmer
LF: Gus Zernial
CF: Al Zarillia
RF: Richie Zisk

SP: Barry Zito
SP: Carlos Zambrano
SP: George Zettlein
SP: Geoff Zahn
SP: Pat Zachry

RP: Jimmy Zinn
RP: Dom Zanni
RP: Brad Ziegler
CL: Sam Zoldak

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Monday, May 16, 2011

Value Over Replacement Grit: Has There Ever Been a Totally Alphabetical Batting Order?

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