Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, March 28, 2008

Vegas Watch: Tim Kurkjian and Buster Olney Are Optimistic

and why slick Steve Phillips is an optical illusionist…Bezold!

Standard Deviation
Phillips: 10.7
Olney: 10.4
Kurkjian: 10.1
Stark: 9.7
Law: 9.0

For reference, PECOTA’s standard deviation is 8.4.

Phillips is so absurd. Here’s my favorite little stat from all of these: he has 14 teams winning 88 or more games. Think about that for a second- that’s one team away from half of baseball. Here is my prediction: Steve Phillips’ predictions will not fare well in this post at the end of the year.

Repoz Posted: March 28, 2008 at 12:40 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: announcers, media, projections, television

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Essex Snead Posted: March 28, 2008 at 12:55 PM (#2722290)
Re: Phillips' cockeyed optimism -- you're not going to catch flies with castor oil, are you?
   2. Shooty is obsessed with the latest hoodie Posted: March 28, 2008 at 01:03 PM (#2722293)
Bezold...Repoz, you are a nut! Hurray!
   3. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: March 28, 2008 at 01:22 PM (#2722301)
So, the humans' picks are better the closer they are to the PECOTA projections? Isn't that begging the question? Also, what does he mean when he lists each prognosticator's "standard deviation"?
   4. Sparkles Peterson Posted: March 28, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2722314)
Lay off on Phillips for a bit. Jerry Crasnick picked Jeff Francoeur as his pre-season top RF in the league.
   5. KronicFatigue Posted: March 28, 2008 at 02:19 PM (#2722328)
it makes sense for these guys to be overly optimistic with too many teams. One of those teams is probably going to over achieve, and then when that becomes a story later in the season, they can point to their prediction. Nobody is going to remember/care about the mediocre team that in fact played mediocre-ly.
   6. RollingWave Posted: March 28, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2722330)
Francouer is at least a legitimate breakout candidate...

But hey do we need more reminders that Phillips is a moron?
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#2722859)
I assume standard deviation is the standard deviation of wins distributed across teams. Well, the appropriate one to compare to would be the standard deviation of actual seasons, not PECOTA simulations. PECOTA simulations are essentially intended to understate the "randomness" that occurs during an actual season.

Now, not adding up right. Certainly blame the editors, but that's easy to do. We used to have a prediction template here and, god bless them, somebody added a counter to the bottom of the form so you could make sure your numbers balanced. The amount of thought I used to put into "which of these teams are going to lose a win or two" was just silly.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
greenback fixes the cable
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(7190 - 1:32pm, Jun 25)
Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher

NewsblogOTP 19 June 2017: Bipartisan baseball: Dems best GOP, give trophy to wounded Scalise
(1040 - 1:27pm, Jun 25)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogDetroit Tigers release struggling closer Francisco Rodriguez
(21 - 1:26pm, Jun 25)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogCreeping Coachism
(1 - 1:23pm, Jun 25)
Last: Gold Star - just Gold Star

NewsblogBeyond the Box Score: On the lack of interest in Albert Pujols’s 600 HR and Adrián Beltré’s pursuit of 3,000 hits
(100 - 1:20pm, Jun 25)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogRoyals sign former Brewers closer Neftalí Feliz and drop Chris Young
(4 - 1:17pm, Jun 25)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogIronPigs' Crawford heating up after brief break | MiLB.com News
(1 - 12:56pm, Jun 25)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogYankees designate Chris Carter for assignment, call up Tyler Austin from Triple-A
(13 - 12:27pm, Jun 25)
Last: Jesus Frankenstein

NewsblogBlue Jays closer Roberto Osuna dealing with anxiety issue
(10 - 12:22pm, Jun 25)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogColumn | Freddie Freeman Shouldn't Play 3B To Accommodate Adams
(27 - 12:03pm, Jun 25)
Last: The Duke

NewsblogKenley Jansen vs Craig Kimbrel as top reliever | MLB.com
(5 - 11:11am, Jun 25)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogRecounting the many ways baseball has changed in 20 years
(68 - 8:56am, Jun 25)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogAbsence makes OMNICHATTER grow fonder, for June 24, 2017
(46 - 2:02am, Jun 25)
Last: Jesus Frankenstein

NewsblogDodgers' Julio Urias to have shoulder surgery; he's out for the season
(18 - 1:35am, Jun 25)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogSABR 47 - NYC
(13 - 11:57pm, Jun 24)
Last: AJMcCringleberry

Page rendered in 0.2391 seconds
47 querie(s) executed