Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, March 28, 2008

Vegas Watch: Tim Kurkjian and Buster Olney Are Optimistic

and why slick Steve Phillips is an optical illusionist…Bezold!

Standard Deviation
Phillips: 10.7
Olney: 10.4
Kurkjian: 10.1
Stark: 9.7
Law: 9.0

For reference, PECOTA’s standard deviation is 8.4.

Phillips is so absurd. Here’s my favorite little stat from all of these: he has 14 teams winning 88 or more games. Think about that for a second- that’s one team away from half of baseball. Here is my prediction: Steve Phillips’ predictions will not fare well in this post at the end of the year.

Repoz Posted: March 28, 2008 at 12:40 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: announcers, media, projections, television

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Essex Snead Posted: March 28, 2008 at 12:55 PM (#2722290)
Re: Phillips' cockeyed optimism -- you're not going to catch flies with castor oil, are you?
   2. Shooty is obsessed with the latest hoodie Posted: March 28, 2008 at 01:03 PM (#2722293)
Bezold...Repoz, you are a nut! Hurray!
   3. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: March 28, 2008 at 01:22 PM (#2722301)
So, the humans' picks are better the closer they are to the PECOTA projections? Isn't that begging the question? Also, what does he mean when he lists each prognosticator's "standard deviation"?
   4. Sparkles Peterson Posted: March 28, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2722314)
Lay off on Phillips for a bit. Jerry Crasnick picked Jeff Francoeur as his pre-season top RF in the league.
   5. KronicFatigue Posted: March 28, 2008 at 02:19 PM (#2722328)
it makes sense for these guys to be overly optimistic with too many teams. One of those teams is probably going to over achieve, and then when that becomes a story later in the season, they can point to their prediction. Nobody is going to remember/care about the mediocre team that in fact played mediocre-ly.
   6. RollingWave Posted: March 28, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2722330)
Francouer is at least a legitimate breakout candidate...

But hey do we need more reminders that Phillips is a moron?
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#2722859)
I assume standard deviation is the standard deviation of wins distributed across teams. Well, the appropriate one to compare to would be the standard deviation of actual seasons, not PECOTA simulations. PECOTA simulations are essentially intended to understate the "randomness" that occurs during an actual season.

Now, not adding up right. Certainly blame the editors, but that's easy to do. We used to have a prediction template here and, god bless them, somebody added a counter to the bottom of the form so you could make sure your numbers balanced. The amount of thought I used to put into "which of these teams are going to lose a win or two" was just silly.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dock Ellis
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogRyan Thibs has his 2017 HOF Tracker Up and Running
(842 - 8:42pm, Jan 17)
Last: Rennie's Tenet

NewsblogOTP 16 Jan. 2017: The ‘honor’ Trumps politics in scheduling Cubs’ White House visit
(522 - 8:41pm, Jan 17)
Last: Rickey! No. You move.

NewsblogCubs honored by President Obama at White House | MLB.com
(47 - 8:36pm, Jan 17)
Last: Brian C

Sox TherapyThe Kids Are or Are Not Alright
(16 - 8:26pm, Jan 17)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(1093 - 8:25pm, Jan 17)
Last: maccoach57

NewsblogJose Bautista close to signing with Blue Jays | MLB.com
(36 - 8:12pm, Jan 17)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogRelocation Less Common in MLB Than NFL, Other Leagues
(6 - 8:05pm, Jan 17)
Last: crict

NewsblogOT: January 2016 Soccer Thread
(98 - 7:47pm, Jan 17)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogNick Cafardo: Manny Ramirez’s desire to keep playing is being supported all over baseball
(3 - 7:28pm, Jan 17)
Last: dlf

NewsblogMaterials From Jim Bouton’s ‘Ball Four’ Days Going Once, Going Twice ... - The New York Times
(6 - 7:11pm, Jan 17)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogBearing the Glory: Jackie Robinson's 1949 MVP Award
(12 - 7:10pm, Jan 17)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogFive Candidates Who Have Fallen a Single Vote Shy of Election to the Baseball Hall of Fame
(34 - 7:07pm, Jan 17)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogJerry Dipoto’s Trade Activity, in Context | FanGraphs Baseball
(12 - 5:21pm, Jan 17)
Last: JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler....

NewsblogMatheny: Spring training 'priorities' may look different this year | stltoday.com
(1 - 3:43pm, Jan 17)
Last: cardsfanboy

Newsblog10 baseball trades that look more lopsided now | MLB.com
(28 - 3:24pm, Jan 17)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.1616 seconds
47 querie(s) executed