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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Vegas Watch: Handicapping the AL MVP Race

Well tilt my unburnished Bristol Stool Scale…Miguel Cabrera?

For the most part, it looks like a two horse race. If the White Sox win the Central, Quentin’s 40+ homers and 120+ RBIs will be enough. If the Twins somehow continue to rake with runners in scoring position and make the playoffs, Morneau should win his second MVP.

There are a few other possible scenarios, none of which seem particularly likely. If the Tigers wake up from their 4.5 month slumber and make a run into October, Miguel Cabrera may have the numbers and late support to win it. Youkilis is a possibility, although it’s hard to imagine him hitting much better than he currently is, and he may not have the national name recognition anyway.

Hamilton has finally fallen off his 170-RBI pace, and that’s hurt his chances. If the Rangers were to make the playoffs, he’d be the obvious choice (at 124.9), but that’s not going to happen. Not being on a playoff team is almost impossible to overcome for a guy whose candidacy relies on RBIs; if his line was more HR-heavy, like A-Rod in ‘03, he’d be right in the mix.

Speaking of Rodriguez, he could theoretically still sneak into the race; the Yankees would obviously have to make the playoffs, and he’d probably need at least a couple walk-off homers to retain the “clutch” reputation he briefly had 11 months ago. He is really hurt here by the time he missed; if plays every game the rest of the way, and keeps up his current per game pace, he projects to 64.7. Not that it’s relevant to this discussion, but A-Rod has also taken over the AL VORP lead.

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2008 at 12:49 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards

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   1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 03:53 PM (#2910081)
If the White Sox win the Central, Quentin’s 40+ homers and 120+ RBIs will be enough.
If Eric Byrnes hadn't gotten hurt, he easily would've topped these numbers.
   2. ekogan Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:29 PM (#2910146)
If Eric Byrnes hadn't gotten hurt, he easily would've topped these numbers.

Playing what videogame?
   3. Darnell McDonald had a farm Posted: August 20, 2008 at 07:54 PM (#2910430)
"If the Twins somehow continue to rake with runners in scoring position and make the playoffs, Morneau should win his second MVP."

As if the world needed another weak two-time MVP
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2910434)
"If Eric Byrnes hadn't gotten hurt, he easily would've topped these numbers."

Given several years, you're probably right.
   5. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#2910446)
Guys, simple math: Quentin = 40 home runs @ $0.4m/year = 1 home run/$10k
According to the Dbacks front office, Eric Byrnes is actually a lot better. But call them equal
Healthy Eric Byrnes @ $10m/year * 1 home run/$10k = 1,000 home runs/year
Only injury prevented the greatest explosion in home run production known to man
I rest my case. When I say that Jeff Moorad is a freaking genius, I'm understating
   6. Chase Utley, Shooty's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 09:08 PM (#2910567)
I don't think your formula is correct. An increased salary does not correlate with an increased home run rate. What it does do is make each home run more valuable. I'll break it down for you:

In 2007, Byrnes hit 21 home runs while making $4,575,000. So 4,575,000/21 = a dollar value $216,857.14 per home run.

In 2008, Byrnes has 6 home runs while making $10,000,000. So 10,000,000/6 = a dollar value of $1,666,666.66 per home run.

As you can see his home runs are almost 8 times as valuable as last year. Pure profit.
   7. ekogan Posted: August 20, 2008 at 11:32 PM (#2910726)
Primey for #6
   8. shoewizard Posted: August 20, 2008 at 11:56 PM (#2910791)
I wish I had something clever to say. All I can think of is how devastating it will be for the D Backs organization to miss the playoffs while Quentin wins AL MVP.

The longer the season has gone, the more this has eaten away at my baseball soul. It's not getting better. I'm not getting over it. I feel so empty inside.
   9. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 06:26 AM (#2911195)
i suggest Cymbalta, shoewizard.
   10. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 07:57 AM (#2911209)
JOE. MAUER.
   11. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: August 21, 2008 at 12:03 PM (#2911230)
Shoewizard: Known side effects include an increased risk of suicide, loose stool, and increased health insurance premiums. Ask your doctor if Cymbalta is right for you.

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