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Saturday, November 17, 2012

Verducci: Cabrera’s win over Trout for AL MVP proves team results matter

SCREW THAT!...Here’s the important biz!

The pejorative nonsense about “new school” and “old school” was sad. Everybody uses advanced statistics, though how they weigh them varies. In fact, if Albert Reach can get on a Hall of Fame ballot next month essentially for publishing a baseball magazine for seven years in the 19th century (it helped sell his baseballs), someday Sean Forman, the brains behind, should be on one. Who else has put more information just clicks away for fans and media? Delving not so deep into Forman’s mine, for instance, can reveal this:

Repoz Posted: November 17, 2012 at 08:26 AM | 102 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof, site news

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   101. vivaelpujols Posted: November 19, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4306173)
I look at the two of them and see Trout leading in runs as a leadoff hitter and Cabrera leading in RBI as a three hitter and it's a wash.

Cabrera had 36 more Runs + RBIs compared to Cabrera. So you need 40 runs of defense and baserunning to make Trout better. Not sure most traditionalist really know the scale of defense and baserunning. Also they definitely won't consider park factors or double plays.

Now if by tradionalist you mean BA/OBP/SLG than yes I think anyone using those stats would consider Trout much better overall.

Why are stolen bases so important all of a sudden? And if you want to include them, it should be SB minus CS, cuz just listing stolen bases alone doesn't give an accurate portrayal of value.

I agree that it should be SB-CS but I'm just going for simplicity. Three stats that provide the most coverage of player value while also not being too rare. TB, BB and SB pretty much encompasses all of a player's value IMO. It shows us how many times he got on base via the walk and how many total bases he got with his hits and then what he did when he got on base. The stats are correlated with eachother (it's really hard to lead in BB and TB simultaneously) but they aren't directly related in the same way that RBIs and HRs are.

The problem with that triple crown is that I don't think it's ever been done. Ty Cobb lead in OBP/SLG/SB twice but never in BB or TB. So that's why I subbed out SB for BA. Then it's happened six times.

BA/BB/TB is good, but includes no baserunning. Problem with trying to include baserunning is there is no single metric; SB would be silly (I would've won the TC if it weren't for the valueless Vince Coleman in my league...). RUNS woudl not be bad, if you don't mind hte team dependent thing.

BA/BB/TB also misses park effects.

It's funny this comment is the exact opposite of the preceeding one. If you're trying to acutely measure value you're going to end up with someone close to WAR. The point of the triple crown is to pick 3 really simple stats that provide wide coverage of a player's value.

I think the three elements of the Triple Crown should be as separated as possible: hitting, baserunning, and fielding.

It's impossible to encompass hitting in one stat (unless you use wOBA, but then you're just going back to WAR) and fielding measurements right now are too imprecise.

I think you should be trying to encompass 3 of the 4 major skills (contact, power, walking and running).
   102. Ron J2 Posted: November 19, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4306195)
#98 It also seems plausible that the new scoreboard screwed up the batter's eye in Anaheim. Certainly things like scoreboard changes have resulted in park factor changes elsewhere.
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