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Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Verducci: Cano, Votto lead Midseason Awards

More to talk about here…than that time your flight-risk neighbor gave you his razor-scarred Ras Michael and The Sons Of Negus LP collection!

AL Cy Young Award

1. Justin Verlander, Tigers

2. Jake Peavy, White Sox

3. David Price, Rays

4. Chris Sale, White Sox

5. Jered Weaver, Angels

The reason: Verlander leads the league in innings, strikeouts and complete game, is third in WHIP and fourth in ERA. He is the definition of an ace. In the mold of Nolan Ryan, Verlander is a workhorse at an elite level.

The snubs: Felix Hernandez of Seattle, Matt Harrison of Texas and C.J. Wilson of Los Angeles belong in the discussion.

The crazy stat: Verlander has made 59 straight starts in which he pitched at least six innings, the longest streak since a 69-game stretch by Steve Carlton ended 30 years ago.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/07/03/midseason-awards-cano-votto/index.html#ixzz1zf5D4m7b

Repoz Posted: July 04, 2012 at 09:37 AM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: awards

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1. PreservedFish Posted: July 04, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4172958)

Dickey for MVP!

2. Davo Mastroianni Posted: July 04, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4172988)

Where's Darwin Barney?

3. John DiFool2 Posted: July 04, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4172998)

Where's Clem?

[Name That Reference!]

4. Nasty Nate Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4173015)

I didn't know such awards existed

5. Russ Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4173018)

Andrew MvpCutchen

6. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4173022)

Andrelton Simmons has been more valuable as a rookie than Bryce Harper.

7. Orangepeel Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4173025)

I do think Peavy is second, but I don't know how you could possibly put Price over Sale.

8. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4173027)

I was going to question Price ahead of Sale, but different is quality of competition is massive. Price has faced a team in the top 10 for runs scored 10 times, and only one team in the bottom 8. Sale has faced a top 10 team once, and a bottom 10 team six times.

9. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4173028)

Coke to Orangepeel. I don't know for sure if the discrepancy in opponents can explain away 73 points of ERA, but it would be close.

10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 04, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4173030)

Among pitchers with 80 IP or more, Chris Sale has faced the worst hitting opposition - his opponents have averaged a 728 OPS. David Price has faced the fourth best hitting opposition - 780 OPS.

11. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4173035)

Has Cano really been more valuable than Hamilton? It doesn't really seem like it.

EDIT: I didn't realize how awesome Cano's been recently and how much Hamilton had tailed off. I should have mentioned Trout as well.

12. Orangepeel Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4173040)

Well Robinson Cano has to face AL East pitchers, who are in turn better because they have to face AL East hitters.

Just kidding, but I think the 2B advantage makes up for the hitting. And the Price over Sale thing is fair enough.

13. ShoeGrit Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4173042)

Per BP's quality of opponents, for AL Pitchers, minimum 80 IP. 45 guys. Opponents OPS

1. Parker .776
2. Price .772
3. Shields .768
4. Arieta .766
5. Matusz .765
6. Verlander .763
7. B. Chen .763
8. Millwood .762
9. Hammel .762
10. Noesi .762

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
45. .728

So the difference truly in quality off opponent truly is massive.

14. ShoeGrit Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4173044)

15. ShoeGrit Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4173045)

double post

16. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4173046)

Has Cano really been more valuable than Hamilton? It doesn't really seem like it.

Both fWAR and bWar give Cano the edge (.5 and .8 WAR respectively). Eyeballing it, Hamilton has a 164 RC+ while splitting time between LF and RF while Cano has a 154 RC+ at second. Seems like the hitting is close enough that position could play a big role. Cano has played in 6 more games.

Also, Second base has been a pretty lousy position for production while CF has had a ton of stars at the position this year.

17. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4173048)

Dickey is such a control freak he has thrown only one wild pitch, allowed no stolen bases and walked only three of the 116 batters to lead off an inning against him.

This is a knuckleballer?

18. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4173049)

Also, Second base has been a pretty lousy position for production while CF has had a ton of stars at the position this year.

That shouldn't matter should it? I still think Cano is better, but you can't penalize Hamilton for having better peers.

19. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4173051)

That shouldn't matter should it? I still think Cano is better, but you can't penalize Hamilton for having better peers.

Depends on your evaluation. If you use something like Win Above Average, than sure it should. It doesn't have to matter, I wouldn't consider it, but IIRC some people here do.

20. TVerik Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4173053)

Did you just argue against league adjustments, era adjustments, and ERA+, Rants?

21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 04, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4173057)

I don't think he did. I think he meant that, beyond normal position adjustments, Hamilton should not be penalized for the glut of quality CF in the American League.

22. Jonk Posted: July 04, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4173102)

Sale's opponents' numbers are worse because they've had to play against him!

23. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: July 04, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4173103)

Sale did face the Rangers last night, but Price is facing the Yankees today (and thus is perfectly set up to start the ASG, as he won't pitch again before the break).

24. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 04, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4173129)

Cano could make a run at the all-time record for home runs by a second baseman (43, Davey Johnson, 1973) as well as become only the third second baseman with 90 extra-base hits (Rogers Hornsby, Alfonso Soriano) or more than 360 total bases (Hornsby, Soriano).

That could get you the MVP.

25. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: July 04, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4173132)

Cano could make a run at the all-time record for home runs by a second baseman (43, Davey Johnson, 1973) as well as become only the third second baseman with 90 extra-base hits (Rogers Hornsby, Alfonso Soriano) or more than 360 total bases (Hornsby, Soriano).

That could get you the MVP.

Didn't work for Soriano.

26. Kiko Sakata

Posted: July 04, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4173135)

Didn't work for Soriano.

or Johnson

27. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: July 04, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4173138)

Didn't work for Soriano.

That's because that shortstop in the AL West was the blindingly obvious MVP.

Of course, they didn't give it to him, either.

28. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 04, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4173157)

Cano with a clutch two RBI single to give the Yanks the lead. That's the kind of play needed down the All-Star break stretch necessary to take home the midseason MVP!

29. AJM Posted: July 04, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4173162)

I like to see volume, not just the pretty rate stats, because durability and dependability have increased value in this testing era.

What?

30. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 04, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4173203)

I like to see volume, not just the pretty rate stats, because durability and dependability have ~~increased~~ value in ~~this testing~~ every era.

He came so close to getting it right.

31. Danny Posted: July 04, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4173212)

I like to see volume, not just the pretty rate stats, because durability and dependability have increased value in this testing era.

What?

Maybe a reference to amphetamines--that it's tougher to play everyday now that they test for greenies?

32. RollingWave Posted: July 04, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4173288)

*insert random David Cameron snark here*

33. cardsfanboy

Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4173337)

The reason: Verlander leads the league in innings, strikeouts and complete game, is third in WHIP and fourth in ERA. He is the definition of an ace. In the mold of Nolan Ryan, Verlander is a workhorse at an elite level.

Not to pick on Verducci who is right about Verlander, but was Ryan really ever an elite workhorse? I mean, yes he was a workhorse, and yes he was good at times, but elite? I'm picturing Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, etc as much more comparable animals to what Verlander has been doing.

34. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4173341)

Cano could make a run at the all-time record for home runs by a second baseman (43, Davey Johnson, 1973) as well as become only the third second baseman with 90 extra-base hits (Rogers Hornsby, Alfonso Soriano) or more than 360 total bases (Hornsby, Soriano).

FWIW, Soriano did each of these things once (at least at second base - he also had 360 TB as an outfielder once). Hornsby, meanwhile, had 360+ TB 5 times, including a 409 and a 450 (!), and 90+ extra-base hits 3 times.

35. cardsfanboy

Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:54 AM (#4173343)

Votto, with 33 two-baggers already, could break one of the oldest records in the game -- and one of the few hitting records to survive The Steroid Era.

Which records fell in the steroid era? The homerun record lots of times of course(both career and single season) the strikeout record, and Ichiro set the single season hit record..... What other major records has fallen, heck Biggio even fell short of the hbp record.

As to his roy ballot, is Lance Lynn eligible? If so how is he not at least worth a mention in the snub part of the ballot?

36. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4173345)

Which records fell in the steroid era? The homerun record lots of times of course(both career and single season) the strikeout record, and Ichiro set the single season hit record..... What other major records has fallen, heck Biggio even fell short of the hbp record.

The walk and intentional walk record as well. Both season and career.

edit: also OPS and OPS+ single season records.

37. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 06:54 AM (#4173369)

OB%, SLG%, NL record for extrabase hits in a season tied. Career runs scored.

38. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:20 AM (#4173374)

I don't think he did. I think he meant that, beyond normal position adjustments, Hamilton should not be penalized for the glut of quality CF in the American League.

That's what I was trying to say. I think regular positional adjustments are imnportant, but 2b and CF are pretty close on the spectrum.

39. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:39 AM (#4173389)

According to this, Lance Lynn is not a rookie.

I'm amazed he's so close to being a rookie, since he pitched in ten games in the playoffs last year I assumed he'd been on the team all year.

40. franoscar Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:03 AM (#4173426)

Maybe instead of "steroid era" you should write "Bonds era"?

PS: It is hard to get back into things at work after a holiday in the middle of the week.

41. NJ in NY Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4173454)

Reading this thread as well as the recent dismissal of his power on the HR Derby thread...it occurs to me that Robinson Cano is underrated. He's one of the top 10 or so position players in baseball, definitely the best player on the Yankees, and I don't think his media hype matches that.

42. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4173462)

He's one of the top 10 or so position players in baseball, definitely the best player on the Yankees, and I don't think his media hype matches that.

I wonder if this is, in part, because Cano has become a different player than people imagined. When he first came up, there was all the Is-This-Silly-Or-Not? comparisons with Rod Carew. Cano is not as good as Rod Carew--even at Cano's best--but he's also a very different player. This season is Cano's third in the top ten in slugging, Carew was only in the Top Ten three times his whole career.

It seems like a lot of people in the media keep waiting for Cano to "put it all together," and do so by hitting .365 or something and winning a batting title. Instead, he's added a bunch of power but never again come close to that .342 average he had in '06 (or, perhaps not coincidentally, the .359 BABIP he had that season).

43. Chris Fluit Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4173478)

Not to pick on Verducci who is right about Verlander, but was Ryan really ever an elite workhorse? I mean, yes he was a workhorse, and yes he was good at times, but elite? I'm picturing Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, etc as much more comparable animals to what Verlander has been doing.

Ryan was a workhorse but not to the level of Verlander or others and really only during his tenure with the Angels. He led the American League in innings pitched in 1974. He also had 2 top threes ('73 and '77) and 2 top sevens ('72 and '76). He finished 2nd in games started twice ('74 and '76) plus a fifth and a sixth ('72 and '77). He scratched the bottom of the top ten in those categories a few more times with the Astros and Rangers. However, his career numbers (5th in innings, 2nd in games started) have a lot more to do with his longevity than with any elite workhorse ethic.

Verlander, for comparison, has already led the AL in innings twice, is leading them again this year and has a 3rd place finish as well. He's led the AL in games started twice, is leading them again this year and has 2 other top five finishes. Verlander has more top 5 finishes in games started and as many top 3 finishes in innings pitched through the age of 29 as Ryan had in his entire career.

44. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4173490)

but 2b and CF are pretty close on the spectrum.

Sure, but Hamilton has played about half his defensive innings in left.

He's one of the top 10 or so position players in baseball, definitely the best player on the Yankees, and I don't think his media hype matches that.

It always takes a while for people to realize who the best player is on the Yankees. Especially when it's not the guy who makes the most. Last year, I think people would have picked Granderson. After this first half, I think people are finally understanding it is Cano.

It seems like a lot of people in the media keep waiting for Cano to "put it all together," and do so by hitting .365 or something and winning a batting title. Instead, he's added a bunch of power but never again come close to that .342 average he had in '06 (or, perhaps not coincidentally, the .359 BABIP he had that season).

Of course, we are only half way through, but this could be the year people realize he's already put it together. I think breaking the 30 HR mark will help with that, and he seems extremely likely to do that this year. Among stat heads, whatever his WAR ends up being this year (ZIPs has him finishing at 7 fWAR), that should give him another clear cut MVP caliber season (there seems to be some dismissal of his 2010 (65. fWAR, 7.8 bWAR performance) for some reason) to change their perception of him as well.

This is also the year that likely will separate him from the other star second basemen. He has a huge head start on Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Zobrist as they come into the second half of the season.

45. TVerik Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4173503)

Also, Cano got off to a very slow start this year and continues to struggle with RISP and (in particular) bases-loaded situations. His total baserunners scored this year is 12% (a mere point in front of noted clutch hitter Russell Martin and well behind Nick Swisher, for example) - the worst rate in his career. I don't take a lot of stock in situational batting as a component in total offense, but I believe that his "performance" in these situations needs to improve for him to get significant MVP votes this year.

46. Danny Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4173521)

Reading this thread as well as the recent dismissal of his power on the HR Derby thread...it occurs to me that Robinson Cano is underrated.

Having read that thread and this one, I don't see anyone underrating Cano. One guy in the other thread criticized Cano's inclusion in the derby by noting that he's never hit 30 HRs, but I don't think anyone would argue that Cano is one of the top 4 HR hitters in the AL. He's never been in the top 10 of AB/HR despite playing in a big HR park.

I agree that he's one of the top 10 position players in baseball, but I'm not sure he's seen as less than that. He's finished 3rd and 6th in MVP voting the past two years, for example, which is actually higher than rWAR or fWAR would place him.

47. TVerik Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4173533)

but I don't think anyone would argue that Cano is one of the top 4 HR hitters in the AL

I love Cano, but I don't think I'd put him up there.

48. NJ in NY Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4173536)

Having read that thread and this one, I don't see anyone underrating Cano. One guy in the other thread criticized Cano's inclusion in the derby by noting that he's never hit 30 HRs, but I don't think anyone would argue that Cano is one of the top 4 HR hitters in the AL. He's never been in the top 10 of AB/HR despite playing in a big HR park.

With Cano being my favorite player, I'm obviously biased, but I just thought that comment was silly given that while Cano might not have hit 30 HRs in a season yet he a.) is usually amongst the ISO/SLG leaders b.) has 20 in half a season this year c.) put on one of the best displays in HR Derby history last year en route to winning the damn thing.

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Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Verducci: Cano, Votto lead Midseason Awards

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