The Verducci Efface.
Take all the closers this postseason (Rivera, Brian Fuentes of the Angels, Jonathan Papelbon of the Red Sox, Joe Nathan of the Twins, Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers, Brad Lidge of the Phillies, Ryan Franklin of the Cardinals and Huston Street of the Rockies), look at what they did in their 18 ninth-inning appearances of the Division Series, and compare that to the major league average ninth inning—not just those thrown by closers—for the 2009 season:
Ninth-Inning Performance Runs/Game WHIP
2009 MLB average 0.433 1.31
2009 postseason closers 0.667 2.11
Whoa. Runs jumped 54 percent from the average ninth inning to the postseason closers’ ninth inning, while the rate of base runners jumped 61 percent.
Why is the ninth inning so much harder for pitchers in October than in the other six months? There is the element of pressure, of course. But there are also so much more detailed scouting reports and so much studying of that information. (Players couldn’t possibly absorb and apply that much information over 162 games without frying their brains, but it works for a five- or seven-game series with off days.) Finally, there is also more intense focus by the batters in the postseason. No one gives away an at-bat in the ninth inning of a postseason game. No one. Yes, it does happen during the regular season.
All of those factors make the closer’s job even more difficult in October than it is from April through September. And that’s why Rivera, doing it year after year, is the greatest ever.
Repoz
Posted: October 13, 2009 at 06:53 PM |
24 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Tags:
general
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. The Essex Snead Posted: October 13, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3351093)It's like '01 and '04 never happened. Magic!
This is absolutely wrong. Why don't you compare them to innings of similar leverage during the regular season instead?
(If I had a postseason DB set up I would - but I don't.)
-- MWE
That said...obvious sample size issues here.
That's what she said, bless her heart.
And hung two of them in the strike zone - fortunately, Tulowitzki took both of them.
-- MWE
Because they're facing good-to-excellent hitting teams.
This makes little sense. Is Verducci saying that it's harder for pitchers to study batters in the postseason than it is for batters to study pitchers? What makes that so? Why wouldn't it be the other way around, especially given that early in the season, when pitchers are facing batters for the first time, the pitchers are usually ahead of the batters.
Not to mention that postseason runs in most years are more at a premium than they are during the regular season, etc., etc. All Verducci's done is to take one rather flukish set of examples from one week and try to convert it into a theory.
Now if he'd just said that the Yankees, the Angels and the Phillies all have lots of great hitters who are capable of working the count and wearing down even the best pitchers, then he'd be making at least an attempt at an argument. Except that they presumably had those same skills during the regular season, too.
Well the Yankees did that a lot in the regular season, as well. 16 walkoffs, was it?
Rivera 2001 postseason:
11 G, 16 IP, 1.13 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 1:14 BB/K, 1.13 WPA
Rivera 2004 postseason:
9 G, 12.2 IP, 0.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 2:8 BB/K, 0.89 WPA
He may have been on the mound for the end of the 2001 season in the wrong way, and blown 3 saves in 2004, but you can't blame him for his performance. Interesting note: he actually had a +0.18 WPA (yes, positive) in the three BS in 2004.
EDIT: Thanks B-R, you're awesome.
Because they're pitching against better teams.
The data he cites isn't worthy of faux-Casablanca shock, much less real shock.
To which hitters are immune, of course.
Right. And his theory should apply equally to starting pitchers, right? So I guess Cliff Lee, Kershaw, Wainwright, Blackburn and all the other pitchers who pitched well last week are just exceptions.
Exactly. We need to be able to explain everything. We can't just chalk stuff up to the randomness of the game anymore.
A: Because good hitting beats good pitching. Unless it doesn't.
Tulo sure looked uncomfortable up there, can't we give Lidge some credit? After all, he's had a rough year. :)
18 effing innings
Does this happen every postseason? What about 2008, 07, 06 etc?
You'd need more than one post seasons' worth of 9th innings to say that something is going on.
I guarantee you that you can find 18 consecutive innings where virtually every single pitcher in baseball had an ERA and WHIP 50% higher than their season average.
18 innings? seriously, talk about a crapshoot.
we're talking about a difference of 4 effing runs.
If you adjust for the quality of the offenses (the Yankees alone score an average of .65 runs per inning) then 12 runs in 18 postseason innings is maybe 1-2 more runs than expected.
IOW this isn't remotely statistically significant.
Show me 2000-09, if closers have given up .6667 r/g in 150-200 9th innings- THAT would be interesting- I've seen nothing to indicate that's the case.
Heh, must be parody day. We have a program called "Simplify IT" which isn't just cutting 35% of ITs jobs, or so they say. :( As one potentially "simplified", it is about cutting jobs and cutting jobs alone. About an hour ago, I came up with the title, "Simplification Blues". I'm envisioning a kind of folky, David Brombergian type of blues. I've started fooling around with the structure and words. The only trouble is I can't carry a tune or read or write music so I will have a tough time getting any traction with it.
0.74 ERA in 121 postseason innings. Geez.
Interesting Rivera stat - almost 10% (9.99%) of his career innings have come in the postseason. 1090 regular season, 121 in the postseason.
His regular season ERA is 2.25, but if you average in the postseason his overall career mark is 2.12.
I'm not a Yankees fan, don't even follow the AL too closely, but his career numbers just blow me away.
Verducci did that:
but I'm a little bit less charitable toward Tulo. The only pitch that Tulo tried to hit was by far the least hittable pitch of the PA, and strike 1 more or less just sat there waiting to be hit. Tulowitzki had to know that Lidge didn't want to fall behind in the count - yet he just couldn't pull the trigger until it was too late.
-- MWE
use "Re-enlistment Blues" from From Here to Eternity as your template & you can't go wrong
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main