What is this, 1990?

Most of the bullets apply to things ten years old or more. I would guess MLB did something to the ball.

Isn't the bullet point about K-rate really the only one that is necessary? As mentioned above, a lot of these things have been going on for the better part of a decade. "Pitcher-friendly new ballparks" are mostly pitcher-friendly AFA home runs are concerned, right?

"the acceptance of strikeouts in the culture of hitting".. that's some fancy footwork, Tom : )

The reasons for more no-hitters are the same reasons why offense in general is down:

How exactly are these two related?

No-hitters are outliers or extreme events. Extreme events are more frequent when there is more variability.

"Offense in general" seems more like a statement about the *average* level of offense rather than the *variability* in the level of offense.

[5] When there are fewer hits on average, than you don't need as much variability to get to 0 hits.

the emphasis on movement over velocity for pitchers (hence the popularity of the two-seamer and cutter)

Is this even true? My impression is that high velocity pitchers are more prevalent now than 30 years ago. Pitchers have been sinking pitches forever. I think there was more emphasis on pitch to contact 30 or 40 years ago than now.

I guess I'm missing something. The rate for the last three years doesn't seem that exceptional historically, unless you're comparing it against the outliers of the '80s and '00s. If there are three no-hitters a year for the next seven years, this decade isn't going to seem very different, is it?

[6] The average hits per game have dropped since 2000, but not massively.

2000 4,858 games 9.31 H/G
2011 4,858 games 8.70 H/G
2012.  782 games 8.46 H/G

Year BatAv BABIP
----------------
2011 .255 .295
2010 .257 .297
2009 .262 .299
2008 .264 .300
2007 .268 .303
2006 .269 .301
2005 .264 .295
2004 .266 .297
2003 .264 .294
2002 .261 .293

The recent drop in BA has been primarily strikeout-based. 20-30 years ago BABIP was lower by about 10 points (as compared to last 2 seasons), but averages were 5 points or so higher. If BABIP keeps dropping we could indeed see more no-no's (and another dead-ball era).

I guess I'm missing something. The rate for the last three years doesn't seem that exceptional historically, unless you're comparing it against the outliers of the '80s and '00s. If there are three no-hitters a year for the next seven years, this decade isn't going to seem very different, is it?

no hitters by decade:

1900s 20
1910s 29
1920s 9
1930s 8
1940s 13
1950s 18
1960s 34
1970s 31
1980s 13
1990s 31
2000s 10
2010-2012: 11

remember that starting in the 1960s, vastly greater numbers of games were played because of continued expansion, so the % of no-hitters per games pitched would be a better way to calculate the rate, but I'm too damn lazy to do all those calculations

I count 230 officially recognized no-hitters from 1900 to 2011, or just over two a season. With the increased number of games played these days, we ought to expect about three no-hitters a year.

Here are the numbers of no-hitters the past few years:

2011: 3
2010: 5 (not counting Halladay's in the postseason)
2009: 2
2008: 2
2007: 3
2006: 1
2005: 0
2004: 1
2003: 2
2002: 1
2001: 3
2000: 0

If no-hitters seem more common now, it's mostly because they dropped during the Sillyball era. Except for a bit of an outlier in 2010, we've been right around historical norms.

If no-hitters seem more common now, it's mostly because they dropped during the Sillyball era. Except for a bit of an outlier in 2010, we've been right around historical norms.

That's what I was thinking. They're ahead of the pace so far, but if you look at the 'normal' decades, it's not that exceptional. Maybe I'm just missing Verducci's point.

remember that starting in the 1960s, vastly greater numbers of games were played because of continued expansion, so the % of no-hitters per games pitched would be a better way to calculate the rate, but I'm too damn lazy to do all those calculations

all right, I did the bloody calculations

no hitters as a % of games:

1950s 0.15
1960s 0.19
1970s 0.17
1980s 0.06
1990s 0.14
2000s 0.04
2010-present: 0.21


so as stated above , the 80s and the 2000s are the outliers

2010-present: 0.21

Your tally in post 11 indicates that you're including Halladay's playoff no-hitter in here. Are you accounting for postseason games in the denominator of the overall percentage?

Your tally in post 11 indicates that you're including Halladay's playoff no-hitter in here. Are you accounting for postseason games in the denominator of the overall percentage?

oops--nope, so for regular season games it drops to 0.19

EDIT: and therefore the 50s drop to 0.14

The '80s line is the one that's really weird. What the hell happened there? To further muddy the waters, many of the star pitchers of the '80s actually ended up throwing no-hitters in the '90s -- Fernando, Dave Stewart, Gooden, Ryan x2...

The '80s line is the one that's really weird. What the hell happened there? To further muddy the waters, many of the star pitchers of the '80s actually ended up throwing no-hitters in the '90s -- Fernando, Dave Stewart, Gooden, Ryan x2...

even weirder, is that 3 of those 13 were perfect games, while there were no perfect games in the 70s

The 80s is weird. I suppose high-contact, good speed and astroturf would make 0 hits hard to pull off but those things were true in much of the 70s and 90s as well.

So I think it's just that the Reagan era was ####### boring and it took Michael Jordan to save civilization.

The '80s line is the one that's really weird. What the hell happened there? To further muddy the waters, many of the star pitchers of the '80s actually ended up throwing no-hitters in the '90s -- Fernando, Dave Stewart, Gooden, Ryan x2...

Dave Stieb, too.