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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Verducci: With more pitchers breaking down, it’s time to rethink modern bullpen

I can smell an ineffective effect coming on.

Yet baseball keeps doing things the same way. It is addicted to the “theater” of having a specialized closer and the “theory” that an arm has only so many pitches in it—and that everybody’s arm will be treated exactly the same way. And when the casualties keep piling up, baseball keeps going about it the same way. The sport is so flush with money even wasting half a billion dollars a year doesn’t set off any alarms.

The incidence of injuries went down slightly in one brief period: the back end of the steroid era, when sophisticated, cutting-edge use of illegal performance-enhancers—not the industrial-strength, gym-rat regimens of the early adopters—were keeping people on the field and aiding in recovery. But since 2007—right after amphetamines joined steroids on the banned list—the rate of injuries has not improved despite the advances in science, nutrition and training. Walk into any major league clubhouse before a game and you will see all kinds of strength trainers, masseuses, massage therapists, doctors, whirlpools, hydrotherapy pools, hot tubs, cold tubs, weight rooms, gyms ... and injured pitchers.

“That means this method is not working,” Conte said. “Injuries have not gone down. With all due respect to the medical professionals, and they’re great, we’re not putting a dent in it.”

...And yet the universally accepted system is a failure when it comes to reducing the rate of injuries. What can change it? A maverick organization. (The Rangers and Giants are loosening pitch count restrictions in the minors, but the evidence is not yet very apparent in the majors.) A maverick manager. (Why won’t somebody use a closer—say Sean Marshall or Aroldis Chapman in Cincinnati—in the manner of a 1980s closer such as Jeff Reardon? And my personal idea: give each starting pitcher a 10-day vacation during the season. Recovery, both mental and physical, is an undervalued asset.) Stem cell treatments. (Baseball better be bracing for a whole new series of ethical questions as science blurs the line between performance enhancing and performance enabling.)

Who knows what the future holds? Not even Tony LaRussa, the father of the modern bullpen, likely could have envisioned a pitcher limited to about 60 innings being worth more than $12 million while representing a breakdown waiting to happen. But this much is certain: the injury rate will not be reduced if teams continue to treat pitchers the same way they do now.

Repoz Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:18 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, injury, sabermetrics

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   1. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4108954)
I heard the term "Pre-hab" a few months ago for the first time.

How much research is being done on injuries (especially with pitchers)?
Are there scientific studies done on mechanics (beyond the acquired knowledge of pitching coaches)?
I know that Mike Marshall has his own theories, is there reason to believe they're valid (beyond his PhD, of course)?
What sorts of conditions result in certain types of injuries?
What indicators, be it previous experience and usage or something that comes up in a physical, act as warning signs to injuries?
Is ice really just for injuries and my drinks?
What methods have been shown to be or are theoretically effective in preventing certain types of injuries?
Are there any public studies available? Is there a lot of proprietary research being done by individual clubs? Seems like something Epstein might have looked into at least superficially, but with the recent history of the Red Sox medical staff...maybe not.
Are there genetic indicators that we can identify with any sort of precision?

I like asking questions.
   2. Dale Sams Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4108957)
I've proposed the 'vacation theory' before when it has been unintentionally used by the Sox. Results are difficult to analyze though.

I'd still like to see starters close on their throw days.
   3. andrewberg Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4108959)
Perhaps I'm asking an ignorant question, but if the modern bullpen usage entails many more pitchers being used game by game, then wouldn't injuries have to increase at a faster rate than pitcher usage to be an increasing issue? I guess you could argue that the injuries come from the number of pitches thrown rather than appearances, or times warming up, pitch type used, etc. In any case, if managers are using more pitchers, it seems basically intuitive that more pitchers are getting hurt.
   4. thetailor Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4108961)
Ah, the new Ver-douchey Effect.
   5. aleskel Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4108962)
Are there scientific studies done on mechanics (beyond the acquired knowledge of pitching coaches)?

it's unscientific, of course, but HBO Real Sports had a good piece on Steve Delabar, a Mariners reliever who came back after wrecking his arm and attributes his getting healthy to a program developed by Tom House; the key to the program, apparently, is House's discovery that tennis players, despite using a similar motion to hit an overhand or serve, rarely suffer shoulder injuries, and the exercises for pitchers are meant to replicate tennis training to strenghten the shoulder.
   6. Cris E Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4108966)
Speaking of new approaches and crazy durability, I just submitted a Deadspin interview with Mike Marshall that includes a couple movies of the weird delivery he's been teaching. Perhaps this could be his time. It might just be crazy enough to work...
   7. JPWF1313 Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4108967)
I'd still like to see starters close on their throw days.


The year Lefty Grove won 31 games he started 30 games...11 relief appearances- 4 wins and 5 saves
   8. The District Attorney Posted: April 17, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4108969)
Yet baseball keeps doing things the same way. It is addicted to the “theater” of having a specialized closer and the “theory” that an arm has only so many pitches in it—and that everybody’s arm will be treated exactly the same way.
I totally agree... teams are being inflexible, unimaginative, and are treating different arms as if they were the same.

But, inspired by Verducci, I've got a great solution that will cause flexibility, imagination and individualism to blossom. Strictly limit every young pitcher to only 30 IP more than they threw the previous season!
   9. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4108976)
Speaking of new approaches and crazy durability, I just submitted a Deadspin interview with Mike Marshall that includes a couple movies of the weird delivery he's been teaching. Perhaps this could be his time. It might just be crazy enough to work...

this has been discussed ad nauseum in here: it's very likely that the delivery advocated by Marshall would cut down on arm injuries, but the more important question is, can pitching this way be even remotely effective at the major league level? I suspect not
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4108987)
but the more important question is, can pitching this was be even remotely effective at the major league level? I suspect not

What is that concern based on? Do pitchers suffer a big velocity decline? Should be easy to test.
   11. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4108992)
But since 2007—right after amphetamines joined steroids on the banned list—the rate of injuries has not improved despite the advances in science, nutrition and training.


What massive advances have occurred since 2007?
   12. Jim Wisinski Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4108996)
Is there a lot of proprietary research being done by individual clubs? Seems like something Epstein might have looked into at least superficially, but with the recent history of the Red Sox medical staff...maybe not.


Under current management the Rays have had a run of good health from their pitchers. They haven't lost many starts to injury and a lot of that recently (besides Alex Cobb's freak rib problem causing a blood clot, not exactly a preventable pitching injury) has been Jeff Niemann whose arm was demolished at Rice and they've managed to coax over 500 generally effective innings out of in the majors. It doesn't count as injury prevention (though maybe they managed to keep him going for longer than other teams would have) but I suspect they knew there was a pretty good chance that Scott Kazmir's arm wasn't long for this world and that it was a really good idea to trade him to a sucker, err, team that wanted him.
   13. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4109000)
What is that concern based on? Do pitchers suffer a big velocity decline? Should be easy to test.

take a look at this
   14. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4109002)

What massive advances have occurred since 2007?


Regenokine. ;)
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4109003)
take a look at this

Interesting, but on a quick read, it doesn't say how hard the "Marshall" pitchers threw in a conventional style. They throw 10-12 MPH slower than the "elite" college pitchers, but is that b/c of the motion, or b/c they suck?
   16. Cris E Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4109005)
this has been discussed ad nauseum in here

I hadn't seen film of it before. It looks horribly awkward. I can't see how it generates much velocity, but perhaps the strangeness of the release point might distract hitters enough to be a positive point for a year or two.
   17. Monty Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4109007)
What massive advances have occurred since 2007?


Oh! I know this one! "The Mariners invented the training room," right?
   18. SOLockwood Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4109011)
Tom House talked about his theory of pre-habbing in the book "The Diamond Appraised" which he and Craig Wright collaborated on.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: April 17, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4109062)
What massive advances have occurred since 2007?

I think it's just unclear writing from Verducci. He's trying to say that the injury rate has been flat for a long time (not sure how long, I'd have to give him a click-through) other than a brief drop during the "really good steroid" era. So "advances" is a reference to medical advances over the entire time series.

Of course if steroids reduce injury, maybe that's a good thing. (I gave it a good 5 count, not hit by lightning.)

And of course I find it humorous that stem cell treatments to improve pitcher health are free of ethical concerns while steroids are EVIL! EVIL! EVIL!
   20. zenbitz Posted: April 17, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4109093)
—and that everybody’s arm will be treated exactly the same way. And when the casualties keep piling up, baseball keeps going about it the same way.


This is pretty much par for the course... in medicine.
   21. Chicago Joe Posted: April 17, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4109099)
Tom House talked about his theory of pre-habbing in the book "The Diamond Appraised" which he and Craig Wright collaborated on.


Mike Marshall should have never written that book!
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against Elroy Face? Posted: April 17, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4109106)
THERE IS NO BOOK!!
   23. Willie Mayspedes Posted: April 17, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4109107)
Tom House you're risking the patient's life!!!11!!
   24. bfan Posted: April 17, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4109111)
Stem cell treatments. (Baseball better be bracing for a whole new series of ethical questions as science blurs the line between performance enhancing and performance enabling.)


This was a part of Bill James' arguments why 40 years from now no one will think badly of the current-era steriod users; we will be so far past that point, in terms of what we can ingest; inject; and insert into the athletic body that steriods will seem like aspirin is to us, now.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: April 17, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4109246)
Also ... although it's clearly part of the equation, modern pitcher usage patterns are unlikely to change substantially without pitch count restrictions. Pitchers, going only one inning at a time, are extremely effective. Starters are yanked not (just) because of pitch counts but because those 3-4 guys used to close out the ballgame. Using a 30 IP, 95% relief cut-off, there were 111 relievers with a 110+ ERA+ compared to 47 starters (90+ IP). The vast majority of time when a starter is pulled in a reasonably high-leverage situation he is being replaced by a more effective pitcher. The benefits of doing so are not going to change dramatically if it's determined that the league-average starter on your staff can handle 115 pitches a start.

And nobody knows but it's not unreasonable to propose that continuing injury problems under lighter starter workloads are partly due to the absence of longmen and swing starters. A starter has to be getting hammered to be pulled before the 5th these days. There is some superficial evidence that it's not so much total pitches or the occasional long outing but rather having long streaks of 100+ pitches that causes problems. (There's probably as much superficial evidence the other way too :-).

And, not reading Verducci's article but ... yes, on the one hand it's obviously true that not all arms are equal but it's not at all clear to me that anybody has a method for knowing which ones will break and which won't. In fact I suspect that's part of the popularity of pitch count limits -- they know they can't tell the difference so they treat them the same. The only surefire way to know is to put them all under higher workloads and wait to see who survives.

So (a) it's not clear to me there's any performance advantage to starters, in general, going deeper into games; (b) it's not clear to me there's a health advantage; (c) it's not clear to me the roster advantages of lower bullpen usage are worth much; (d) I don't have faith that managers, coaches or GMs can identify the durable vs. non-durable group with any accuracy.

Complete games became fetishized once they started to disappear. That doesn't mean they are actually valuable.
   26. Squash Posted: April 17, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4109294)
Complete games became fetishized once they started to disappear. That doesn't mean they are actually valuable.

You don't get it, we're creating a generation of weak, coddled baseball players who would have meekly surrendered to Hitler given half the chance.
   27. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4109310)
You don't get it, we're creating a generation of weak, coddled baseball players who would have meekly surrendered to Hitler given half the chance.

didn't realize there were so many French pitchers in MLB
   28. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: April 18, 2012 at 12:04 AM (#4109355)
didn't realize there were so many French pitchers in MLB

There aren't. They're all stuck in the minors.

Well, not all of them.
   29. MM1f Posted: April 18, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4109371)

There aren't. They're all stuck in the minors.

Well, not all of them.


Well, I can think of one French pitcher who made the bigs but was too weak and coddled and Hitler-surrendering to keep his arm healthy.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4109382)
#26 through 29 raise excellent points -- the last thing I want is MLB to turn into cheese-eating surrender monkeys. Complete games for all!!

... as long as they don't increase their IP by more than 30 in any season.
   31. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 18, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4109383)
Well, I can think of one French pitcher who made the bigs but was too weak and coddled and Hitler-surrendering to keep his arm healthy.

That's an interesting way of spelling Érik Bédard.
   32. LionoftheSenate (feels sorry for the Pirates) Posted: April 18, 2012 at 02:39 AM (#4109390)
Why should pitching at the MLB level be this injury free endeavor? Has anyone pitched before in a competitive setting? The act itself is incredibly taxing on the arm/body. Effort on most pitches is nearly 100%.
   33. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 18, 2012 at 03:19 AM (#4109395)
And nobody knows but it's not unreasonable to propose that continuing injury problems under lighter starter workloads are partly due to the absence of longmen and swing starters. A starter has to be getting hammered to be pulled before the 5th these days.


I think there's a lot to this. It stands to reason that a given number of pitches is more stressful when thrown over fewer innings, and starters are left in very high stress outings of 100+ pitches over the course of just 5 or 6 innings much more frequently than in the past, partly to "save the bullpen," and partly because pitch counts have become not maximums, but expected numbers of pitches. The starter has to "throw his 100 pitches" no matter how badly things are going.
   34. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: April 18, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4109495)

This was a part of Bill James' arguments why 40 years from now no one will think badly of the current-era steriod users; we will be so far past that point, in terms of what we can ingest; inject; and insert into the athletic body that steriods will seem like aspirin is to us, now.


The issue isn't steroid use per se, but the cheating -- i.e. they were using steroids surrepetitiously. Whereas we know Bartolo Colon used a stem cell treatment, he's admitted it, and it's all out in the open.
   35. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4109571)
The issue isn't steroid use per se, but the cheating -- i.e. they were using steroids surrepetitiously. Whereas we know Bartolo Colon used a stem cell treatment, he's admitted it, and it's all out in the open.


Wait, what? So it's ok if someone decided to call a press conference and announce he was going to start on a regimen of steroids?
   36. Mash Wilson Posted: April 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4109601)
Can someone point me to some research that demonstrates that pitchers right now are getting injured at a rate at all different from the rate pitchers have been getting injured since the dawn of time? Or at least the dawn of the 20th century.
   37. BDC Posted: April 18, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4109640)
Can someone point me to some research that demonstrates that pitchers right now are getting injured at a rate at all different from the rate pitchers have been getting injured since the dawn of time?

No, but: there is a kind of logical imperative at work here. Pitching success is highly rewarded, so pitchers tend to go all-out at their work. At whatever workload they're assigned, some will be relatively durable and others will break down. If relief pitching was outlawed, we'd have (aside from high-scoring games) a population of major-league starters who could throw complete games, by definition: and some would get hurt more than others, some immediately and some not at all. There's probably no workload that avoids injury for everybody (as many have noted upthread).

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