Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Statistical Meanderings 2012

Latest findings from Patriot…

* The Mets factoids provide a great segue into discussing Citi Field’s park factor. When significant changes are made to a park, my usual course of action is to treat it as a brand new park. This is not an entirely satisfactory solution, but neither is regressing a park to 1.00 as my methodology also does. One could attempt to develop a hypothetical mean for a park, considering factors such as dimensions, altitude, temperature, knowledge about how the park played before alterations, and other factors. My approach keeps it simple, but not necessarily more accurate—deal only with the park under its current dimensions, use a maximum of five years of data in whichever direction (past or future) that you can grab it from (although 2012 park factors are necessarily 100% based on past experience at this point), and regress heavily.

Considering only 2012, I have Citi Field’s park factor as .96 for runs and 1.02 for home runs. If instead I’d used all four years of available data (2009-2012), it would have been .96 and .95. In this case, regardless of how I figured the park factor, it wouldn’t have made any difference for Mets players.

* Remember when Aaron Cook was a nightmare for sabermetrics? The trashiest site in sports media was all over that case, but in the end, not only was Cook unable to sustain success with a 1.9 KG (and who could have ever forseen that?), his .295 %H was indistinguishable from the AL’s .296 average. And his 5.89 dRA was equal to his 5.89 RRA. Aaron Cook 2012 could be the DIPS poster child.

Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Repoz Posted: December 04, 2012 at 05:56 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Tricky Dick Posted: December 04, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4316253)
Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Both his fastball and 2 seamer had more velocity last year, increasing from the high 80's to the low 90's. Happ can occasionally throw his FB near the mid-90's during the course of a game--something I saw last year but can't remember seeing from him previously. He also made more and better use of a slider and cutter. Happ improved in a number of areas which probably should have helped his ERA more than it turned out: higher K%, lower BB%, higher GB%.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
A triple short of the cycle
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 16 Jan. 2017: The ‘honor’ Trumps politics in scheduling Cubs’ White House visit
(719 - 1:17pm, Jan 18)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogOT Gaming: October 2015
(603 - 1:15pm, Jan 18)
Last: Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest"

NewsblogFive Candidates Who Have Fallen a Single Vote Shy of Election to the Baseball Hall of Fame
(37 - 1:11pm, Jan 18)
Last: Dennis Eclairskey, closer

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(1118 - 1:10pm, Jan 18)
Last: No, TFTIO is the puppet

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(1793 - 1:09pm, Jan 18)
Last: MHS

NewsblogClass of 2017 awaits call from Hall of Fame | MLB.com
(16 - 1:01pm, Jan 18)
Last: Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 1-18-2017
(12 - 12:58pm, Jan 18)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

NewsblogOT: January 2016 Soccer Thread
(105 - 12:44pm, Jan 18)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogRyan Thibs has his 2017 HOF Tracker Up and Running
(880 - 12:43pm, Jan 18)
Last: bachslunch

NewsblogWillie McCovey Pardoned by Obama
(16 - 12:43pm, Jan 18)
Last: Shibal

NewsblogPadres' Margot tops prospects all defense team | MLB.com
(6 - 12:25pm, Jan 18)
Last: bfan

NewsblogRelocation Less Common in MLB Than NFL, Other Leagues
(25 - 11:52am, Jan 18)
Last: Astroenteritis

NewsblogJose Bautista close to signing with Blue Jays | MLB.com
(7 - 11:27am, Jan 18)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogCubs honored by President Obama at White House | MLB.com
(53 - 10:41am, Jan 18)
Last: zonk

NewsblogMatheny: Spring training 'priorities' may look different this year | stltoday.com
(4 - 9:58am, Jan 18)
Last: Russ

Page rendered in 0.2565 seconds
47 querie(s) executed