Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Statistical Meanderings 2012

Latest findings from Patriot…

* The Mets factoids provide a great segue into discussing Citi Field’s park factor. When significant changes are made to a park, my usual course of action is to treat it as a brand new park. This is not an entirely satisfactory solution, but neither is regressing a park to 1.00 as my methodology also does. One could attempt to develop a hypothetical mean for a park, considering factors such as dimensions, altitude, temperature, knowledge about how the park played before alterations, and other factors. My approach keeps it simple, but not necessarily more accurate—deal only with the park under its current dimensions, use a maximum of five years of data in whichever direction (past or future) that you can grab it from (although 2012 park factors are necessarily 100% based on past experience at this point), and regress heavily.

Considering only 2012, I have Citi Field’s park factor as .96 for runs and 1.02 for home runs. If instead I’d used all four years of available data (2009-2012), it would have been .96 and .95. In this case, regardless of how I figured the park factor, it wouldn’t have made any difference for Mets players.

* Remember when Aaron Cook was a nightmare for sabermetrics? The trashiest site in sports media was all over that case, but in the end, not only was Cook unable to sustain success with a 1.9 KG (and who could have ever forseen that?), his .295 %H was indistinguishable from the AL’s .296 average. And his 5.89 dRA was equal to his 5.89 RRA. Aaron Cook 2012 could be the DIPS poster child.

Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Repoz Posted: December 04, 2012 at 05:56 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Tricky Dick Posted: December 04, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4316253)
Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Both his fastball and 2 seamer had more velocity last year, increasing from the high 80's to the low 90's. Happ can occasionally throw his FB near the mid-90's during the course of a game--something I saw last year but can't remember seeing from him previously. He also made more and better use of a slider and cutter. Happ improved in a number of areas which probably should have helped his ERA more than it turned out: higher K%, lower BB%, higher GB%.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Chicago Joe
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogRemember 1967 and the impossible dream - The Boston Globe
(17 - 7:51pm, Feb 20)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogHow 10 Facebook comments tell the story of Dexter Fowler, the Cardinals and America in 2017
(24 - 7:46pm, Feb 20)
Last: zonk

NewsblogOTP 20 Feb. 2017: Baseball in a Time of Politics
(259 - 7:44pm, Feb 20)
Last: madvillain

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(2215 - 7:41pm, Feb 20)
Last: Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB)

NewsblogOT Gaming: October 2015
(611 - 7:22pm, Feb 20)
Last: Paul d mobile

NewsblogDellin Betances' lost case against the Yankees shows the arbitration system is broken | FOX Sports
(14 - 7:17pm, Feb 20)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogRio Ruiz arrives at Braves camp with new body | MLB.com
(4 - 6:44pm, Feb 20)
Last: BDC

NewsblogYordano Ventura’s final year filled with family turmoil, emotional distress
(3 - 6:26pm, Feb 20)
Last: Styles P. Deadball

NewsblogHosmer talking extension, but prepared for breakup of Royals’ core
(35 - 6:12pm, Feb 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogTexas Rangers: After almost killing someone, spending 3 years in prison, how Rangers' Matt Bush is trying to reassemble his life | SportsDay
(101 - 5:22pm, Feb 20)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogBryce Harper isn’t laughing off Syndergaard’s ‘douche’ rip | New York Post
(12 - 5:01pm, Feb 20)
Last: Captain Supporter

Gonfalon CubsSpring Training Open Thread
(9 - 4:42pm, Feb 20)
Last: Cabbage

NewsblogRumors And Rumblings: Swihart Adamant He Doesn't Have Yips
(12 - 4:36pm, Feb 20)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogAfter rough debut, Lucas Giolito aims for encore with White Sox
(3 - 3:53pm, Feb 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogYankees President: Dellin Betances’ Arbitration Filing “Had No Bearings In Reality”
(49 - 3:50pm, Feb 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

Page rendered in 0.3024 seconds
47 querie(s) executed