Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Statistical Meanderings 2012

Latest findings from Patriot…

* The Mets factoids provide a great segue into discussing Citi Field’s park factor. When significant changes are made to a park, my usual course of action is to treat it as a brand new park. This is not an entirely satisfactory solution, but neither is regressing a park to 1.00 as my methodology also does. One could attempt to develop a hypothetical mean for a park, considering factors such as dimensions, altitude, temperature, knowledge about how the park played before alterations, and other factors. My approach keeps it simple, but not necessarily more accurate—deal only with the park under its current dimensions, use a maximum of five years of data in whichever direction (past or future) that you can grab it from (although 2012 park factors are necessarily 100% based on past experience at this point), and regress heavily.

Considering only 2012, I have Citi Field’s park factor as .96 for runs and 1.02 for home runs. If instead I’d used all four years of available data (2009-2012), it would have been .96 and .95. In this case, regardless of how I figured the park factor, it wouldn’t have made any difference for Mets players.

* Remember when Aaron Cook was a nightmare for sabermetrics? The trashiest site in sports media was all over that case, but in the end, not only was Cook unable to sustain success with a 1.9 KG (and who could have ever forseen that?), his .295 %H was indistinguishable from the AL’s .296 average. And his 5.89 dRA was equal to his 5.89 RRA. Aaron Cook 2012 could be the DIPS poster child.

Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Repoz Posted: December 04, 2012 at 06:56 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Tricky Dick Posted: December 04, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4316253)
Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Both his fastball and 2 seamer had more velocity last year, increasing from the high 80's to the low 90's. Happ can occasionally throw his FB near the mid-90's during the course of a game--something I saw last year but can't remember seeing from him previously. He also made more and better use of a slider and cutter. Happ improved in a number of areas which probably should have helped his ERA more than it turned out: higher K%, lower BB%, higher GB%.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Jim Wisinski
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-28
(10 - 2:37pm, Jul 28)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogDmitri Young explains his amazing weight loss
(3 - 2:36pm, Jul 28)
Last: Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!

NewsblogOTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3359 - 2:36pm, Jul 28)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogO'Connor: Tulo looks more A-Rod than Jeter
(20 - 2:31pm, Jul 28)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogHall of Fame Announces Changes to Voting Process for Recently Retired Players, Effective Immediately
(86 - 2:31pm, Jul 28)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogDeadspin: David Ortiz Pissed Off the Rays Again
(38 - 2:26pm, Jul 28)
Last: Jittery McFrog

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(974 - 2:18pm, Jul 28)
Last: clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-28-2014
(34 - 2:17pm, Jul 28)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogFull Count » Mike Carp explains why he requested a trade from Red Sox
(24 - 2:16pm, Jul 28)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogSickels: George McClellan, Dayton Moore, and the Kansas City Royals
(623 - 2:14pm, Jul 28)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogIs It True That Some Players Can’t Hack It in New York?
(2 - 2:03pm, Jul 28)
Last: BDC

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1957 Discussion
(2 - 1:52pm, Jul 28)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread July, 2014
(447 - 1:09pm, Jul 28)
Last: Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman

Newsblog2014 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: UPDATED
(4 - 1:00pm, Jul 28)
Last: Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora

NewsblogDodgers and Diamondbacks Triple-A teams involved in wild brawl
(23 - 12:23pm, Jul 28)
Last: Ron J2

Page rendered in 0.1737 seconds
52 querie(s) executed