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Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Statistical Meanderings 2012

Latest findings from Patriot…

* The Mets factoids provide a great segue into discussing Citi Field’s park factor. When significant changes are made to a park, my usual course of action is to treat it as a brand new park. This is not an entirely satisfactory solution, but neither is regressing a park to 1.00 as my methodology also does. One could attempt to develop a hypothetical mean for a park, considering factors such as dimensions, altitude, temperature, knowledge about how the park played before alterations, and other factors. My approach keeps it simple, but not necessarily more accurate—deal only with the park under its current dimensions, use a maximum of five years of data in whichever direction (past or future) that you can grab it from (although 2012 park factors are necessarily 100% based on past experience at this point), and regress heavily.

Considering only 2012, I have Citi Field’s park factor as .96 for runs and 1.02 for home runs. If instead I’d used all four years of available data (2009-2012), it would have been .96 and .95. In this case, regardless of how I figured the park factor, it wouldn’t have made any difference for Mets players.

* Remember when Aaron Cook was a nightmare for sabermetrics? The trashiest site in sports media was all over that case, but in the end, not only was Cook unable to sustain success with a 1.9 KG (and who could have ever forseen that?), his .295 %H was indistinguishable from the AL’s .296 average. And his 5.89 dRA was equal to his 5.89 RRA. Aaron Cook 2012 could be the DIPS poster child.

Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Repoz Posted: December 04, 2012 at 06:56 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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   1. Tricky Dick Posted: December 04, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4316253)
Speaking of former DIPS debunkers, how did JA Happ manage to get his strikeout rate up to 8.6?

Both his fastball and 2 seamer had more velocity last year, increasing from the high 80's to the low 90's. Happ can occasionally throw his FB near the mid-90's during the course of a game--something I saw last year but can't remember seeing from him previously. He also made more and better use of a slider and cutter. Happ improved in a number of areas which probably should have helped his ERA more than it turned out: higher K%, lower BB%, higher GB%.

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