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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Bagwell, yes. But there’s no freakin’ way I’m backing Wayne Causey.
Occasionally sabermetrically-inclined people will get behind a Hall of Fame candidate, generally one who has overwhelming qualifications from one perspective or another, but for whatever reason don’t resonate as well with the mainstream. Rich Lederer’s tireless campaign for Bert Blyleven is the most prominent (and successful), and the Tim Raines group of Jonah Keri, Nate Sager, Tango Tiger, and the late John Brattain has put together a website for their now Andre Dawson-endorsed cause. Alan Trammell certainly has his advocates, although they are not nearly as well-organized. Both Robbie Alomar and Barry Larkin debuted with a high enough percentage that there’s no particular sense of urgency to make their case.
...The player I speak of is Jeff Bagwell, and he’ll be on the ballot for the first time this year. I’m suggesting that if you would like to be the next Rich Lederer, you should get a head start. The day the vote is taken, the blogosphere will be overrun with posts about how badly the BBWAA missed on Bagwell. This is your chance to get ahead of the curve and stake out your territory.
...It’s possible that I’m wrong, and that Bagwell is appreciated by the BBWAA voters and will debut at a percentage that makes future induction a solid bet. If so, any would-be Bagwell Lederers out there will have wasted their time and I will have cried wolf. I’d like for that to be the case, for Bagwell’s sake if nothing else.
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1. McCoy Posted: July 28, 2010 at 01:14 PM (#3601343)If he falls short it will show how many writers think he's an uncaught steroid cheat.
If he falls short it will show how many writers think he's an uncaught steroid cheat.
THIS!!!
because mostly too many people are convinced that a fairly small sized baseball player can't hit home runs in the astrosdome (ignoring jimmy winn, of course) and because of the silliness of how "big" he got (because of the silly lies the teams put down about a player's height and weight)
baggy is the ONLY 1B to ever have a 30/30 seaeson, let alone 2. he wasn't just a mcgwire type, but a genuine 5 tool guy. and he didn't get near as many gold gloves as he should have because the writers were in LUUUUVVVVV with mark effing grace
the good thing about baggy though is that he isn't on any "list" we know of and no one on the astros was a known roider (no one cares about richard hidalgo who also wasn't on any list) AND that he retired before frank thomas, so he MIGHT could have a chance. i HOPE
First try? Or just eventually?
I think he'll get in eventually but I think I'll be a little surprised if he sails in this year. (Even though he should.)
Caminiti was on the Astros for 8 years...
I'll be surprised if he sails in this year, but I'd be even more surprised if he's on the ballot for more than 5 years. His peak years are just too good, his prime is long, he stole bases, played good defense, won an MVP (A 0.750 SLG in the AstroDome?), played only for a single franchise, and (possibly most importantly) will always be associated with the winning side in one of most lopsided trades ever, so there's a nice story to go with his stats.
Unfortunato, I've seen this mentioned by a voter or two.
Probably won't be first ballot (because he doesn't have the 500 HR), but he'll start off with a solid 45-55%.
Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte....
I don't think this is the positive that it should be for a lot of voters. Thinking like a lot of the voters I think the 400 HR are devlaued for era, the 5 post-seasons lose something to his performance in those post-seasons and the MVP award was in a strike year. I think a lot of folks are going to look at him as a "likely" steroid guy too.
The old school type may start to then see things like "well, didn't get 500 HR, only the 4 all star games, I'm not sure if he wasn't on steroids, etc." But I think the first reaction will get him a good nucleus of support from the get go.
I agree that he is pretty equivalent to Timmie Raines, and if the BWA can boot Raines they can boot Bags.
How's Houston not a major market?
In the age of FA, interleague, and interleague trades that distinction means a hell of a lot less than it used too.
But sticking to its parameters:
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
Mike Piazza
and then of course some players are hurt because the filter is setup to favor Bagwell the most. Players like Glavine or Sosa or McGwire or Chipper Jones and such.
He has the numbers for Cooperstown and the fact he's becoming eligible the same year as Rafael Palmeiro should help his cause, not hurt it. Bagwell looks like a saint compared to Palmeiro, and the writers are going to need someone to fill the void. I suspect they'll induct Blyleven, but it's hard to believe he'd be the only member of next year's class. They may need a hitter, too.
And just think of the editorials that will be written after Palmeiro debuts with about 30 percent of the BBWAA vote....
His average peak season was .308/39/129.
He also has single team, buddy-buddy killer b, lopsided trade and catastrophic injury storyline credit.
Even by the dumbest of standards I don't see him having that much trouble getting in.
Alomar's going in too.
Whatever brave soul launches this campaign in anticipation of the next vote, I sure hope there's plenty of preemptive outrage.
Let me preface this by saying that Jeff Bagwell is an obvious Hall-of-Famer. Depending on what you think of 19th-century baseball, he has a very strong argument as the best first baseman in National League history (assuming you treat Musial as an outfielder, I guess). Personally, I also don't view PED use as a HOF disqualifier, and even if I did, I would want to have something more definitive than a single random person pointing at somebody and saying, "He did it".
But that said, if the subject is how Bagwell will do in BBWAA voting, it's worth noting that Bagwell has been named as a steroid user by a Houston-area steroid dealer who claimed that he supplied PEDs to Bagwell, Clemens, and Pettitte, while the three of them were teammates on the Astros. This came out after Bagwell was retired and was reported by a NY paper, so I think it flew a little bit under the radar with respect to Bagwell, but it's out there.
Ignoring steroids, I would have guessed that Bagwell would debut somewhere around 50% and be inducted within three years. I think his first-year total will tell us a fair bit about how much his vote is being held down because of steroids.
As for Bagwell, no chance for 1st ballot election. No Magic numbers, plus a healthy percentage of voters will take a "wait and see" attitude regarding possible PED use. The BBWAA will get him sometime down the road, barring any heated rumors.
I think Alomar has the best chance of joining Blyleven in the class of 2011.
Does brimstone count as a PED? If so ...
Among 1B men, he his 15th in career hits, and 6th in HRs, TB, and RBI.
Here are some Win Shares data. League rank in parantheses
1994-30(1)
1995-20
1996-41(1)
1997-32(5)
1998-29(T10)
1999-37(1)
2000-25
2001-30(T8)
With 20 being an all-star season and 30 being an MVP season, it seems pretty clear to me that this was an outstanding run, especially with 3 1st place finishes in 6 years, with the other 3 years being very good, too.
In batting wins + fielding wins from Retrosheet, he was 1st in 1994 & 1999, 3rd in 1996 and 4th in 1997. Sean Smith has him at 35th all-time in WAR. Here is how he did in offensive winning pct from 1994-99
1994 NL 1ST .853
1995 NL 6TH .708
1996 NL 3RD .796
1997 NL 4TH .774
1998 NL 6TH .734
1999 NL 3RD .753
pettitte and clemens came to houston in 04, baggy's actual last season (yeah, i know he hung around for 05, but he didn't do real too much)
and the report about the gym guy supplying roids has long since been debunked
now mind, i am not saying baggy couldn't have used roids, but he would have had to have started them the winter before he came to houston to explain the - how could he hit homers in the Dome? problem that bugs so many people who refuse to acknowledge the existence of jimmy winn
oh yeah - both he and biggio were TEH SUKC in every postseason they played in - and i refuse to agree that 6 years is a small sample size
IF the writers don't think he's dirty, i think he's got a fair chance of getting in, seeing as how he was a genuine 5 tool guy for years (and has the same team thingy going for him)
hopefully, that MAY help baggy get in
as for accusations, bryant gumbel accused him right out. far as i know, he's the only one who has. and gumbel didn't have any "reporting" by the way, just said that baggy should confessed - based on no evidence except that he is a guy who played between 1990 and 2004 and hit more than a couple of HRs
I think 1500 RBI and 1500 R are pretty close to "magic numbers," and Bagwell has both.
Here is the complete list of eligible players with over 1500 RBI not in the HOF:
Palmeiro
Baines
McGriff
Here is the complete list of eligible players with over 1500 runs not in the HOF:
Palmeiro
Jimmy Ryan
Bill Dahlen
Raines
Tom Brown
Roberto Alomar
The only player on both lists is Palmeiro, and without the PED controversy, he'd have sailed into the HOF.
The reference is actually to the movement for Raines, endorsed by Dawson. Attracting some attention, but not yet as successful as Blyleven's, which hasn't gotten him in but has swayed a number of voters.
Not only is he a steroid cheat, but he and his buddies are playoff chokers.
Well, it started later (for obvious reasons). I think it will take Timmy fewer years on the ballot to get in than it took Bert.
It would be irony of the highest order if Frank Thomas was not a first ballot Hall of Famer because of generalized PED suspicions.
As for 1500 RBI, it's not as special as it once was. Here are the RBI leaders for players debuting in 1985 or later.
Rk Player RBI G From To1 Barry Bonds 1996 2986 1986 2007
2 Ken Griffey 1836 2671 1989 2010
3 Rafael Palmeiro 1835 2831 1986 2005
4 Manny Ramirez 1827 2268 1993 2010
5 Alex Rodriguez 1787 2259 1994 2010
6 Frank Thomas 1704 2322 1990 2008
7 Gary Sheffield 1676 2576 1988 2009
8 Sammy Sosa 1667 2354 1989 2007
9 Jim Thome 1596 2354 1991 2010
10 Fred McGriff 1550 2460 1986 2004
11 Jeff Bagwell 1529 2150 1991 2005
12 Jeff Kent 1518 2298 1992 2008
13 Carlos Delgado 1512 2035 1993 2009
14 Chipper Jones 1484 2248 1993 2010
15 Luis Gonzalez 1439 2591 1990 2008
16 Andres Galarraga 1425 2257 1985 2004
17 Mark McGwire 1414 1874 1986 2001
18 Jose Canseco 1407 1887 1985 2001
19 Juan Gonzalez 1404 1689 1989 2005
20 Vladimir Guerrero 1395 1944 1996 2010
Joe Carter mainly played first base in his 30/30 season.
I don't think the injury context is the same, though. Puckett woke up one morning, could not see right, and his career came to a sudden and unexpected end. Walker had a shoulder injury that got worse over time, and he tried to play for a while, and then could not keep going.
I think people extrapolated a lot more for Puckett than they will for Bagwell -- who should go in on his own merits.
Regarding, Bagwell, I definitely think of him as a HOFer. The numbers/skill have been well covered here, but I would add:
-He was highly recognizable for many reasons, including that he was a good interview, used a unique batting stance, and had a really funny beard for a while.
-He was an absolute monster on every video game on which he appeared.
-He was one the late 90s fantasy gods because he gave you precious SB at a position that didn't offer them.
-As a kid who marveled at baseball cards in the early 90s, his 1994 season was one that jumped off the page. I remember it in the same category as a couple of Frank Thomas' seasons in that era, as well as Greg Maddux.
None of these are reasons he ought to be in the HOF, but I think they could all play in his favor in a potential voter's mind.
Pujols actually is just above Bagwell in WAR on BB-REF.
Yeah, but he hasn't hit his decline phase yet.
Has anyone ever lobbied for Bill Dahlen? I presume the rules prohibit the VC from electing him. Although his "peak" is nothing sexy, I don't understand why Dahlen was never enshrined. He had a long career (20 seasons), was a good hitter, and played over 2,000 games at shortstop. Here are the top 15 shortstops at WAR, counting only those shortstops who played 1,100 or more games at that position:
1 Honus Wagner 134.5
2 Alex Rodriguez 101.2
3 George Davis 90.7
4 Cal Ripken 89.9
5 Robin Yount 76.9
6 Bill Dahlen 75.9
7 Arky Vaughan 75.6
8 Derek Jeter 69.9
9 Luke Appling 69.3
10 Barry Larkin 68.9
11 Alan Trammell 66.9
12 Pee Wee Reese 66.7
13 Ernie Banks 64.4
14 Joe Cronin 62.5
15 Bobby Wallace 60.5
Everyone on this list but Dahlen is either enshrined, on the current ballot or not yet eligible.
Ok, but WAR is a counting stat, so unless you think Albert's decline phase is going to include a number of below replacement level years...
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/1/8/20133/13493
As one would say in Cyrillic:
??? ??? ?????????? ???????, ??????.
(In case you don't read Russian, copy this into the Google Translate program and it will come back in English.)
Okay, I tried that. Thanks
All four should be in the Hall of Fame.
I wrote, "That was an excellent column, Cyril." Then, using Google, I translated that into the Cyrillic script (Russian) and now when I translate it back into English I get:
"This was an excellent speaker, Cyril."
No wonder there are wars. ?? ?????? ????????? ????? ?? ??? ? ???? ?????, ?-? ????????.
John Feinstein says Wink wink nudge nudge say no more say no more
I don't mean this as a slight against Bagwell or against his HoF bid. It just strikes me as a strange concept. Why would a guy who's very fast, an excellent fielder, with a great throwing arm be playing first base? Really, why?
because when he came to the astros, he was a 3B and a very good one, but we already had ken caminiti, an excellent 3B and we needed a 1B, so hey presto, baggy is a 1B - and he hit like one in spite of his small size, so there he stayed, even after we traded cammy to SD
Because the NL doesn't have the DH.
Looks like we need to revive the Party.
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