Cannibalized Resources: An overview of projection systems.
If you’re new to the geek game, you may not be familiar with the assorted projection models and their banal acronyms. CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS, PECOTA, and Bill James are the best known, each with their own faults and strong points. Based on past performances, linear weighting, age regression and magic 8 balls; these systems spit out incredible reams of information that can be taken or left at your convenience. Sometimes the results are bang on, sometimes they’re laughably off. Sometimes they make little or no sense, as the playing time they predict simply won’t or can’t happen.
ZiPS - Created by Dave Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory, the ZiPS projections are quite elaborate, including defense and ODDIBE, or Odds of Important Baseball Events. Szymborski is well respected throughout the SABR world, and his system is thought to be pretty sound.
LOLine for 2010: Jeremy Guthrie. According to ZiPS, Jeremy Guthrie will only surrender 29 home runs this year. That’s less than thirty! Jeremy Guthrie is a lot of things; solid pitcher is not among them. Guthrie gave up three home runs pouring milk on his cereal this morning. Waiting in line at the DMZ last week he served up two gopher balls and later allowed a walkoff tot to his massage therapist.
PECOTA - The grandaddy of them all, available on Baseball Prospectus for a small subscription fee. An incredible variety of information is provided, with age curves and future probabilities mapped out as far as 6 years into the future. Why bother even playing the games? Creator Nate Silver bases the projections on career trajectories of similar players and phone poll results conducted by Fox News, CNN, and John Kruk’s autodialer.
LOLine from 2009: Raul Ibanez. The Ibanez signing left many heads scratching last offseason. An aging player moving to a new league had some (not all) wondering aloud if Ruben Amaro was crazy. Ibanez posted on incredible 34 home runs with a steller .899 OPS. What did PECOTA think before the season? 9 home runs. Nine. Though the robot army did nail the potential OPS (.892 predicted), Silver and friends only estimated 198 plate appearances. No word why, though Ken Rosenthal did give PECOTA a public lashing in Visual Basic for insinuating Ibanez’s steroid-addled body would break down. For shame PECOTA, for shame.
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1. Run Joe Run Posted: December 02, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3400988)That's just funny
The PECOTA example shows little understanding of the system. The 198 PA appears to be an updated forecast run in early August - so it's projecting 198 PA for the rest of the year, and deserves no credit for nailing his season OPS, since it's using his 2009 to date totals in that.
His 2009 forecast is listed below as the weighted mean under percentiles, or the 2009 line of the 7-year forecast, in either case 577 PA of an .852 OPS.
On Ichiro, there are two problems. One is the failure of a model using regression to accurately predict a guy who really, consistently, will have a very high BABIP. I have made strides towards solving this by using batted ball data and speed scores. If I had Ichiro predicted around .330, he'd be near his career average and what the Fangraphs readers are projecting. My system isn't quite there, but would have him around .320 if he were still in what are normally considered his prime ages.
The problem is this: My system is looking at him as a 36 year old human, and projecting the normal batting average aging curve for 36 year old humans. Ichiro, being a Half-Japanese, Half-Elf, has a longer lifespan. I'm not sure exactly how much longer with all the varying rules out there, but going by 4th edition it should be at least double that of a human, so expect about 20 more 200 hit seasons from him, and yes, he will go into the Hall of Fame.
Play "Free Bird"!
Why do people keep using the phrase "steroid-addled". This is starting to bug me. Are steroids a PED or a PAD--Performance Addling Drug. If it's the latter, then a lot of agruments have just been settled.
Not since ZiPS projected Farney to regress to tinnitus rather than develop into full blow schizophrenia.
This may be the most ridiculously uninformed statement that I have ever read.
Merriweather Post Pavillion is my favorite album this year, and IMO one of the best of the decade. I am not a huge AnCo fan, but "My Girls," "Taste," "Bluish," Summertime Clothes, "Also Frightened".. wow, it's incredible. Other favorites from '09:
The Pains of Being Pure at Heart - self-titled
Grizzly Bear - Veckatimest
Only Built 4 Cuban Linx II - Raekwon
Post-Nothing - Japandroids
Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix - Phoenix
Album - Girls
The Mountain Goats & Flaming Lips also released some good stuff too. I was disappointed by The Thermals '09 release. It seems like they've lost a whole lot of their punkish edge. I mean, their songs were always melodic, but Now We Can See is much less Replacements and more All-American Rejects. On the plus side, I saw them at Pitchfork, and they did a solid cover of Basketcase.
New Clipse album out next Tuesday! So excited.
Does your system account for the effects of his toiling under our yellow sun?
"Bad Romance" by Lady Gaga is my single of the year.
EDIT: The Julian Casablancas record surprised me, though I know I'm in the minority.
Is there some juicy story here? As far as I've seen, Szymborski is one of the few major statnerds that's pretty well-liked around the internet.
Time to take that thar humor detector in for a check-up, sir.
He once made Bill James cry.
1901 - Phoenix
My Girls - AnCo
Two Weeks - Grizzly Bear
While You Wait for the Others - Grizzly Bear
Walkabout - Atlas Sound
Lust for Life - Girls
Kinda Like a Big Deal - Clipse (w/ Kanye)
Drop - Rich Boy
More good albums from '09:
Dragonslayer - Sunset Rubdown (can't believe I missed this the first time)
The Crying Light - Antony & the Johnsons
An Imaginary Country - Tim Hecker
Why There Are Mountains - Cymbals Eat Guitars
Julian Casablancas had a better solo record than Paul Banks (that's not saying much), but I wish both would get back together to making good stuff with The Strokes & Interpol, respectively.
My worthlessly idiot Indie/Undie 2009 list is now down to 144 songs.
Who hasn't?
For all the beard, he's quite the sissy.
Grizzly Bear would be near the top of my list, but it's an album with some songs I really love (the obvious ones), and a bunch I couldn't care less about.
mike, Bitte Orca didn't hit me at first. I don't know how much you've listened to it, but Bitte Orca is an album that I could tell I might eventually like, but didn't like it at first. It took a few efforts, and by effort I mean multiple listens. Eventually it just clicked. There's a structure there, but it takes some time to make itself apparent.
My favorite show of '09 was The Wrens at Schubas. They played 2 nights, I went the first night. I actually had tickets for the 2nd night, but confused the nights. When I showed up, I wasn't on the list. The bouncer was nice enough to let me in anyway. Anyway, it was a great show. I think they went through every song on The Meadowlands (maybe my favorite album ever) and like 6 encores, plus some new songs. Jerry MacDonald even sold me a shirt!
Women/Vivian Girls/Japandroids were fun at Pitchfork because each of them basically blew out my eardrums.
EDIT: I've seen Los Campesinos! live 3 times- once at the Empty Bottle, once at Logan Square Auditorium, and somewhere in Milwaukee. They're always fun, and they're releasing a new album sometime soon. I'm still a little upset Aleksandra left the group though.
I was at the LC! show at Logan Square. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt with Garreth's sister. 'Romance is Boring' is out on January 26th. I'd like to see Titus Andonicus again too. They were a great opener.
Other than the Wrens show, the best shows I saw were White Rabbits at the Empty Bottle, every Art Brut show (especially at Subterranean with Team Band), Destroyer at the Empty Bottle, Ted Leo at Lincoln Hall, and Brendan Benson at Lincoln Hall. I still have tix for two Grant Lee Phillips shows at Schubas and the Foreign Born show in LA before the year is out.
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