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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

WalkSaber: 2011 Run Distribution and Win Percentage

Walk Like a Sabermetrician analyses the efficiency of run scoring.

The first breakout is record in blowouts versus non-blowouts. I define a blowout as a margin of five or more runs. This is not really a satisfactory definition of a blowout, as many five-run games are quite competitive—“blowout” is just a convenient label to use, and expresses the point succinctly. I use these two categories with wide ranges rather than more narrow groupings like one-run games because the frequency and results of one-run games are highly biased by the home field advantage. Drawing the focus back a little allows us to identify close games and not so close games with a margin built in to allow a greater chance of capturing the true nature of the game in question rather than a disguised situational effect.

Palm Beach Pollworker Posted: January 17, 2012 at 01:04 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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