Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, March 23, 2009

WaPo: Boswell: Beware Of The Pitching Phenom

Pay no attention to this man’s vile lies!

It’s too bad Stephen Strasburg is a pitcher. Otherwise, he might be worth a record-shattering amount of money for a No. 1 overall draft pick. But he’s a pitcher. So, he isn’t.

History is unequivocal. Strasburg, no matter how much he dominates college hitters, will probably either be a .500 pitcher with a 150-150 record. Or he’ll be a bust.

Unless his price drops to the same general range as David Price ($8.8-million) in 2007 or Mark Prior (a record $10.5-million in 2001), the Nationals should pick somebody else with their top choice in the draft in three months.

At the kind of numbers being rumored or leaked last weekend—$50 million for six years—there’s nothing to see here. It’s a waste of time. Especially since Scott Boras is Strasburg’s agent. Breaking the bank for Strasburg would be a huge waste of money and squander of an enormously valuable draft pick.

Enormously valuable, that is, if you pick a hitter.

Esoteric Posted: March 23, 2009 at 08:59 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals, prospect reports, scouting

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Darren Posted: March 24, 2009 at 01:41 AM (#3112152)
150-150 seems pretty unlikely.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: March 24, 2009 at 01:53 AM (#3112164)
Unless his price drops to the same general range as David Price ($8.8-million) in 2007 or Mark Prior (a record $10.5-million in 2001), the Nationals should pick somebody else with their top choice in the draft in three months.
You know who else got a deal in the $10m range recently? Dmitri Young.
And you know what he is? A true difference maker for the Nats.
   3. Chris Needham Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:00 AM (#3112170)
I, for one, am eagerly awaiting next week's Boswell column, "Strasburg One for the Ages."
   4. Keith Law Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:07 AM (#3112174)
This reads like it came from someone who is trying to drive down Strasburg's price.
   5. Esoteric Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:39 AM (#3112202)
If so, then good for Boswell.

I have fantasies of Boras and all his underlings being arrested in a massive kiddie-pr0n sting, and him ending up behind bars, his power utterly broken forever. I want this man crushed. He's threatening to take my Strasburg away from me...it's getting personal.

(Think I should send a resume to Stan Kasten? I figure he can identify with my feelings re agents and player salaries).
   6. Chris Needham Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:44 AM (#3112207)
Are you willing to work for free?
   7. sbiel2 Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:46 AM (#3112210)
I had no idea that Ken Griffey and Darryl Strawberry were available in this year's draft. Wow. How did I miss that?

BTW--if the idea is that we take no pitchers and no Boras clients, then the first name that comes up in BA's top draft prospects is catcher Luke Bailey way down at #15.
   8. Tripon Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:49 AM (#3112216)
"Esoteric: Constantly dreams of kiddie porn."
   9. Esoteric Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:52 AM (#3112221)
I've gotta say that it sets my teeth on edge to see that sentence written in connection with my username even as a joke.

Boras, though? He deserves far, far worse. DO NOT STEAL STRASBURG AWAY FROM ME GODDAMMIT.
   10. sbiel2 Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:56 AM (#3112225)
Boras is just doing his job. If the Nationals can't handle a hardball negotiation, they blame Kasten, not Boras.
   11. Keith Law Posted: March 24, 2009 at 03:11 AM (#3112236)
Esoteric: The vast majority of Boras clients taken in the first round sign. Only one of five didn't last year, and that wasn't over money but over the kid's desire to go to school (or just his flaky makeup, depending on whom you ask). The year before, there were four, and they all signed. In 2006, I count three, and all signed.

Conclusion: Boras clients sign. They just cost more, and it takes longer to get ink.
   12. Esoteric Posted: March 24, 2009 at 03:17 AM (#3112252)
Conclusion: Boras clients sign. They just cost more, and it takes longer to get ink.
It ain't my money, so I don't care about the cost. I just want him in a Nationals uniform.
   13. JoeHova Posted: March 24, 2009 at 03:34 AM (#3112290)
I've gotta say that it sets my teeth on edge to see that sentence written in connection with my username even as a joke.


Isn't it a bit hypocritical to say that after you just said that you hope that Boras and all his flunkies are found to be kiddie porn enthusiasts?
   14. Esoteric Posted: March 24, 2009 at 04:13 AM (#3112366)
Isn't it a bit hypocritical to say that after you just said that you hope that Boras and all his flunkies are found to be kiddie porn enthusiasts?
Were you REALLY so eager to get this post out that you failed to read the very next sentence, which was the punchline to the joke? C'mon now, that's just f**king lazy right there.
   15. JoeHova Posted: March 24, 2009 at 05:16 AM (#3112494)
Were you REALLY so eager to get this post out that you failed to read the very next sentence, which was the punchline to the joke? C'mon now, that's just f**king lazy right there.


I don't see any punch line. Maybe it was too subtle. Or maybe you're not as funny as you think. Either way, I regret saying anything to you because I didn't really care about this subject or your original lame histrionics. My fault.
   16. Obama Bomaye Posted: March 24, 2009 at 06:26 AM (#3112597)
I've gotta say that it sets my teeth on edge to see that sentence written in connection with my username even as a joke.

ESOTERIC: GRITS TEETH AT THOSE WHO DISPARAGE KIDDIE PORN
   17. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: March 24, 2009 at 06:31 AM (#3112599)
"I want this man crushed." was the punch line?
   18. alkeiper Posted: March 24, 2009 at 11:15 AM (#3112624)
Something to pass the time before work. Most wins by a .500 pitcher.

1. Charlie Hough (216-216)
2. Howard Ehmke (166-166)
3. Nap Rucker (134-134)
4. Dennis Lamp (96-96)
5. Calvin Coolidge Julius Caesar Tuskahoma McLish (92-92)
   19. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: March 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM (#3112634)
It ain't my money, so I don't care about the cost.

It is your money. At the gate, the concession stands, the parking lot, the MLB gear, etc., etc., etc.
   20. bfan Posted: March 24, 2009 at 12:12 PM (#3112639)
"It is your money. At the gate, the concession stands, the parking lot, the MLB gear, etc., etc., etc."

Not to mention the opportunity cost, if $50 million of their money is sunk into an asset that never gets MLB ready, pulling money away from other opportunities that might help at the MLB level.
   21. Chris Needham Posted: March 24, 2009 at 01:00 PM (#3112652)
pulling money away from other opportunities that might help at the MLB level. Uncle Teddy otherwise would pocket.

As the kids might say, "fixed."
   22. bfan Posted: March 24, 2009 at 01:02 PM (#3112653)
Because, of course, Uncle Teddy isn't allowed a return on his investment?
   23. Chris Needham Posted: March 24, 2009 at 01:04 PM (#3112656)
Sure. As long as his payroll and annual layout for the team is commensurate with the team's revenues, I'd be happy to let him keep anything over the top.
   24. Brian Posted: March 24, 2009 at 01:56 PM (#3112699)
#23 - Obama, is that you?
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:25 PM (#3112716)
Obviously, at the money Boras is talking, the Nationals would be way better off signing a Free Agent. Strasburg's chances of being a productive MLB starter still have to be below 50%

Where it gets interesting is in the $10-20M range. If it's $15M for 6 years, and Strasburg takes 2 years to reach the majors, that means the Nationals have already paid for his first 4 control years, and will owe him for the final 2 years in arbitration, correct? Of course if he takes 4 years to reach the majors, then the $15M seems less well spent.

Is it possible to make the deal longer than 6 years. Could they do $20/8?
   26. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:32 PM (#3112723)
If it's $15M for 6 years, and Strasburg takes 2 years to reach the majors, that means the Nationals have already paid for his first 4 control years, and will owe him for the final 2 years in arbitration, correct?

I could be wrong about this, but I thought that if you signed a guy to a major-league contract, that sets the arb clock ticking, whether he's actually on the 25-man roster or not.
   27. Chris Needham Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:36 PM (#3112732)
I'd bet that the endgame is something like the Longoria contract.

It's sort of the same situation -- heralded "unproven" player with basically zero major league experience.

What was that? Something like $20 guaranteed with a chance to go close to $50 with all options/bonuses?
   28. SOLockwood Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3112738)
#26: He actually has to be on the active roster (or the major league DL) for his service time clock to tick. The point of the ML contract is that he a) takes up a spot on the 40-man roster, and b) burns up option years if he goes to the minors.
   29. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: March 24, 2009 at 02:49 PM (#3112744)
Conclusion: Boras clients sign. They just cost more, and it takes longer to get ink.

They also tend to tumble in the draft, to the teams that are willing to spend money on draft picks.

There's more than one team out there that goes out of their way to avoid Boras clients.
   30. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 24, 2009 at 03:04 PM (#3112771)
I could be wrong about this, but I thought that if you signed a guy to a major-league contract, that sets the arb clock ticking, whether he's actually on the 25-man roster or not.
You is mistaken. The arb clock is based on service time on the active major league roster, not contract status. What signing him to a major-league contract does is cost the team a few years before they have to start burning options.

EDIT: Coke to SOLockwood.
   31. jwb Posted: March 24, 2009 at 03:55 PM (#3112847)
The Nats are paying Austin Kearns $9,000,000 this season. Assuming they buy out his $10,000,000 option for next season.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Andere Richtingen
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (April 2019)
(333 - 2:14pm, Apr 18)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogWhite Sox-Royals benches clear, managers go after each other | The Kansas City Star
(22 - 2:11pm, Apr 18)
Last: Rusty Priske

NewsblogRed Sox injury: Where things stand with Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia's knee | WEEI
(4 - 2:05pm, Apr 18)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Kahuna

Sox TherapyWe Can Be Concerned Now
(41 - 2:01pm, Apr 18)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Kahuna

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread, v.2019
(1163 - 1:57pm, Apr 18)
Last: jmurph

Gonfalon Cubs2019 Season Predictions
(76 - 1:56pm, Apr 18)
Last: Meatwad

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1915 Discussion
(12 - 1:49pm, Apr 18)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogOT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)
(90 - 1:49pm, Apr 18)
Last: Jtsports01

NewsblogMLB umpires missed 34,294 ball-strike calls in 2018, study shows
(196 - 1:22pm, Apr 18)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogExclusive: Giants acknowledge it’s finally time to explore moving in the fences at Oracle Park – The Athletic
(26 - 12:52pm, Apr 18)
Last: .

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-18-2019
(10 - 12:49pm, Apr 18)
Last: CheersUnusualPlays

NewsblogWe want OMNICHATTER!, not a belly scratcher, for April 17, 2019
(65 - 12:24pm, Apr 18)
Last: The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogBrian Cashman defends Yankees medical staff after Greg Bird injury
(14 - 12:15pm, Apr 18)
Last: The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogContract Extension Fever Isn’t Just About Economics | FanGraphs Baseball
(51 - 12:01pm, Apr 18)
Last: .

Newsblog'Major League' turns 30: How a Dodgers hero helped turn Hollywood stars into a real baseball team
(13 - 11:21am, Apr 18)
Last: Greg Pope

Page rendered in 0.3112 seconds
46 querie(s) executed