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1. Sean McNally Posted: May 04, 2008 at 02:56 PM (#2768380)While much of that ridiculous contract was a waste, its hard to say that on balance, it wasn't maybe even a fair deal considering salary inflation these days.
If he keeps it up, Bowden would be wise to flip him to a contender at the deadline this year.
I still remember BPro coming up with a new formula to evaluate contracts that off-season and proclaiming Guzman to be the best signing.
I wonder if they've revised it since then!
If he keeps it up, Bowden would be wise to flip him to a contender at the deadline this year.
Given their lack of MI in the minors, and their likely unwillingness to spend Furcal-type money, I wonder if they'll make a push to re-sign him instead.
Probably some still concerned about the risk of it, I assume.
That was Nate Silver, and he ran a mea culpa after the season.
I felt bad for him, because his methodology was sound. The problem was he had to use BPro fielding stats, and nearly all of Guzman's projected value came from his excellent FRAA ratings (which have since been changed). Every other system rated Guzman as pretty awful with the glove.
I think the year before he signed with the Nats, the Twins installed the fieldturf. His range numbers shot right up, which if you weren't making an adjustment for that in your formula would skew things to make him look better than he is.
I've been less-than impressed with him in the field. He's not Jeter out there, but a few too many grounders zip through into LF. He also seems to hold back on some throws. I don't think he quite trusts his shoulder post-surgery. He's probably in that next tier above the worst in the league.
Well, of course, because as we all know, the future is where we will spend the rest of our lives.
Elite
Ramirez
Reyes
Rollins
Furcal
Above average
Tejada
Tulowitzki
Escobar
Below Average
Drew
Hardy
Greene
Guzman
Wilson
Theriot
Keppinger/Gonzalez
God Awful
Izturis
Vizquel et al.
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