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Thursday, May 08, 2008

WaPo: George Will: Yankee Fan Go Home (RR)

Ahh…baseball and politics. Back when I was in Little League…the photo-oping mayor of our town borrowed my glove to throw out the first pitch for Opening Day…and I was thrilled. A few years later our out-of-photo-options mayor was indicted...and, again, I was thrilled.

Hillary Clinton, 60, Illinois native and Arkansas lawyer, became, retroactively, a lifelong Yankee fan at age 52 when, shopping for a U.S. Senate seat, she adopted New York state as home sweet home. She may think, or at least would argue, that when she was 12 her Yankees really won the 1960 World Series, by standards of “fairness,” because they trounced the Pirates in runs scored, 55-27, over seven games, so there.

Unfortunately, baseball’s rules—pesky nuisances, rules—say it matters how runs are distributed during a World Series. The Pirates won four games, which is the point of the exercise, by a total margin of seven runs, while the Yankees were winning three by a total of 35 runs. You can look it up

After Tuesday’s split decisions in Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton, the Yankee Clipperette, can, and hence eventually will, creatively argue that she is really ahead of Barack Obama, or at any rate she is sort of tied, mathematically or morally or something, in popular votes, or delegates, or some combination of the two, as determined by Fermat’s Last Theorem, or something, in states whose names begin with vowels, or maybe consonants, or perhaps some mixture of the two as determined by listening to a recording of the Beach Boys’ “Help Me, Rhonda” played backward, or whatever other formula is most helpful to her, and counting the votes she received in Michigan, where hers was the only contending name on the ballot (her chief rivals, quaintly obeying their party’s rules, boycotted the state, which had violated the party’s rules for scheduling primaries), and counting the votes she received in Florida, which, like Michigan, was a scofflaw and where no one campaigned, and dividing Obama’s delegate advantage in caucus states by pi multiplied by the square root of Yankee Stadium’s Zip code.

 

Repoz Posted: May 08, 2008 at 12:50 PM | 125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: special topics, yankees

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   101. robinred Posted: May 08, 2008 at 10:45 PM (#2774147)
robin, after the National Press Club, I don't think there is any use for you or the Obama camp to paint Wright better.


Wright said what he said; people will read it how they want. I was asking if you listened to the sermon.
   102. Answer Guy Posted: May 08, 2008 at 10:50 PM (#2774149)
robin, after the National Press Club, I don't think there is any use for you or the Obama camp to paint Wright better.


He's had his 15 minutes of fame, twice now.

Mind you, I'm not happy about him by any means, but nor have I ever seen anything that suggests Obama ever adopted those statements or that he owes Wright or his ilk anything politically. (Maybe the nutty preachers that McCain has been kissing up to lately haven't known him as long as Wright has known Obama, but who knows what he has promised them in exchange for their blessing.)
   103. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 08, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#2774155)
Obama-McCain polling

-CBS/NYTimes had Obama up 12 before Wright (2/20-24) and up 11 after Wright (5/1-3)
-AP/Ipsos had Obama up 10 before Wright (2/22-24) and up 4 after Wright (4/30 - 5/4)
-Gallup had Obama down 1 before Wright (2/21-24) and down 1 after Wright (5/1-3)
-CNN had Obama up 8 before Wright (2/1-3) and up 4 after Wright (4/28-30)
-Fox had Obama up 4 before Wright (2/19-20) and down 3 after Wright (4/28-29)
-NBC had Obama down 2 before Wright (1/20-22) and up 3 after Wright (4/25-28)
-Pew had Obama up 7 before Wright (2/20-24) and up 6 after Wright (4/23-27)
-Newsweek had Obama up 2 before Wright (2/28-3/1) and up 3 after Wright (4/24-25)
-Cook had Obama up 9 before Wright (2/28-3/2) and up 1 after Wright (4/17-4/20)

Overall, Obama has on average gone from 5 points up to 3 points up. The evidence of massive movement in general election voters is just not there.

EDIT: I wanted to cut off my average before the Cook poll, but since it showed the most extreme movement to McCain, I included it even though it's a little out of date, in order that I can't be accused of futzing with my endpoints.
   104. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 08, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#2774164)
I know it's clever, but as far as I know, Fox has not been accused of screwing with their standard polling. (There have been a few accusations of tilted questions on particular issues, but their question for the GE preference poll is industry standard.)
   105. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball Posted: May 08, 2008 at 11:16 PM (#2774166)
The media has driven the Wright saga, just as they drove the "Hillary still has a chance!" angle. Regular people don't care that much about Wright; the polls reflect it. And Hillary has been toast since before Texas and Ohio.

Most of the voters that are turned off by Jeremiah Wright weren't going to be voting for Obama anyway.
   106. strong silence Posted: May 08, 2008 at 11:41 PM (#2774179)
Write in Russ Feingold. It will be worth the effort.
   107. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: May 08, 2008 at 11:44 PM (#2774185)
But it's important to note that while people are sick of BUSH, they are not sick of being Republicans--they are mostly proud of that, as they should be, if that is what they believe

The gap between self-identified Democrats and self-identified Republicans has widened enormously over the last four years.

Tactically Obama has one unavoidable flaw in the general election; He's losing white people at a disastrous rate.

He's not. His percentage of the white vote has been pretty constant.
   108. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: May 09, 2008 at 03:18 AM (#2774350)
I don't particularly care that they pass allot of bills, but it would be nice if the two parties would stop acting as if the other is evil and anti-American.


Why is that? It's the one thing about which both parties are 100% correct.
   109. Rich Posted: May 09, 2008 at 04:42 AM (#2774363)
But for McCain's Kerryesque flip flops on unfunded tax cuts, immigration reform, torture, etc., his nakedly hypocritical pandering to the bigoted Hagee and Parsley, and his serial misstatements on a range of issues, that may presage an incipient dementia, I might consider voting for him. Given the reality of who the current McCain is, however, I don't understand how anyone could.
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