Ahh…baseball and politics. Back when I was in Little League…the photo-oping mayor of our town borrowed my glove to throw out the first pitch for Opening Day…and I was thrilled. A few years later our out-of-photo-options mayor was indicted...and, again, I was thrilled.
Hillary Clinton, 60, Illinois native and Arkansas lawyer, became, retroactively, a lifelong Yankee fan at age 52 when, shopping for a U.S. Senate seat, she adopted New York state as home sweet home. She may think, or at least would argue, that when she was 12 her Yankees really won the 1960 World Series, by standards of “fairness,” because they trounced the Pirates in runs scored, 55-27, over seven games, so there.
Unfortunately, baseball’s rules—pesky nuisances, rules—say it matters how runs are distributed during a World Series. The Pirates won four games, which is the point of the exercise, by a total margin of seven runs, while the Yankees were winning three by a total of 35 runs. You can look it up
After Tuesday’s split decisions in Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton, the Yankee Clipperette, can, and hence eventually will, creatively argue that she is really ahead of Barack Obama, or at any rate she is sort of tied, mathematically or morally or something, in popular votes, or delegates, or some combination of the two, as determined by Fermat’s Last Theorem, or something, in states whose names begin with vowels, or maybe consonants, or perhaps some mixture of the two as determined by listening to a recording of the Beach Boys’ “Help Me, Rhonda” played backward, or whatever other formula is most helpful to her, and counting the votes she received in Michigan, where hers was the only contending name on the ballot (her chief rivals, quaintly obeying their party’s rules, boycotted the state, which had violated the party’s rules for scheduling primaries), and counting the votes she received in Florida, which, like Michigan, was a scofflaw and where no one campaigned, and dividing Obama’s delegate advantage in caucus states by pi multiplied by the square root of Yankee Stadium’s Zip code.
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Wright said what he said; people will read it how they want. I was asking if you listened to the sermon.
He's had his 15 minutes of fame, twice now.
Mind you, I'm not happy about him by any means, but nor have I ever seen anything that suggests Obama ever adopted those statements or that he owes Wright or his ilk anything politically. (Maybe the nutty preachers that McCain has been kissing up to lately haven't known him as long as Wright has known Obama, but who knows what he has promised them in exchange for their blessing.)
-CBS/NYTimes had Obama up 12 before Wright (2/20-24) and up 11 after Wright (5/1-3)
-AP/Ipsos had Obama up 10 before Wright (2/22-24) and up 4 after Wright (4/30 - 5/4)
-Gallup had Obama down 1 before Wright (2/21-24) and down 1 after Wright (5/1-3)
-CNN had Obama up 8 before Wright (2/1-3) and up 4 after Wright (4/28-30)
-Fox had Obama up 4 before Wright (2/19-20) and down 3 after Wright (4/28-29)
-NBC had Obama down 2 before Wright (1/20-22) and up 3 after Wright (4/25-28)
-Pew had Obama up 7 before Wright (2/20-24) and up 6 after Wright (4/23-27)
-Newsweek had Obama up 2 before Wright (2/28-3/1) and up 3 after Wright (4/24-25)
-Cook had Obama up 9 before Wright (2/28-3/2) and up 1 after Wright (4/17-4/20)
Overall, Obama has on average gone from 5 points up to 3 points up. The evidence of massive movement in general election voters is just not there.
EDIT: I wanted to cut off my average before the Cook poll, but since it showed the most extreme movement to McCain, I included it even though it's a little out of date, in order that I can't be accused of futzing with my endpoints.
Most of the voters that are turned off by Jeremiah Wright weren't going to be voting for Obama anyway.
The gap between self-identified Democrats and self-identified Republicans has widened enormously over the last four years.
Tactically Obama has one unavoidable flaw in the general election; He's losing white people at a disastrous rate.
He's not. His percentage of the white vote has been pretty constant.
Why is that? It's the one thing about which both parties are 100% correct.
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