confidently predicted that not only would the Nationals lose the division to the Braves, they would quite possibly miss the playoffs altogether!
SAN FRANCISCO — Monday night, already looking down on the rest of the major leagues, the Washington Nationals displayed the full extent of their substantial might. They opposed the National League ERA leader and scored two touchdowns worth of runs by the fifth inning, extra points included. Their starter came off a complete game and yielded nothing for six innings. They faced a first-place team and picked their bones clean.
These Nationals can no longer be considered merely an ascendant overachiever. They are a juggernaut, a fact reinforced with jaw-dropping clarity during their 14-2 bludgeoning of the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park, which matched the largest margin of victory since baseball returned to Washington.
They smashed eight runs off Ryan Vogelsong, who had not allowed four all season, and sent him skulking off the mound with two outs in the third inning. Gio Gonzalez shut down the Giants’ previously surging offense, throwing six scoreless innings before yielding a cosmetic two-run homer in the seventh. [...]
The Nationals’ 21 hits set a new AT&T Park record and tied their team mark.
By the end of the night, the Nationals had ratcheted Ryan Vogelsong’s ERA from 2.27 to 2.72, which left Jordan Zimmermann, Tuesday night’s starter, with the NL lead at 2.35. The victory, combined with the Atlanta Braves’ loss to the San Diego Padres, pushed the Nationals’ edge to 5 ½ games in the National League East, a new high this season and tying their largest lead since baseball returned.
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This can’t possibly be. Why, just a few days ago, Chris Dial confidently predicted that not only would the Nationals lose the division to the Braves, they would quite possibly miss the playoffs altogether!
SAN FRANCISCO — Monday night, already looking down on the rest of the major leagues, the Washington Nationals displayed the full extent of their substantial might. They opposed the National League ERA leader and scored two touchdowns worth of runs by the fifth inning, extra points included. Their starter came off a complete game and yielded nothing for six innings. They faced a first-place team and picked their bones clean.
These Nationals can no longer be considered merely an ascendant overachiever. They are a juggernaut, a fact reinforced with jaw-dropping clarity during their 14-2 bludgeoning of the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park, which matched the largest margin of victory since baseball returned to Washington.
They smashed eight runs off Ryan Vogelsong, who had not allowed four all season, and sent him skulking off the mound with two outs in the third inning. Gio Gonzalez shut down the Giants’ previously surging offense, throwing six scoreless innings before yielding a cosmetic two-run homer in the seventh. [...]
The Nationals’ 21 hits set a new AT&T Park record and tied their team mark.
By the end of the night, the Nationals had ratcheted Ryan Vogelsong’s ERA from 2.27 to 2.72, which left Jordan Zimmermann, Tuesday night’s starter, with the NL lead at 2.35. The victory, combined with the Atlanta Braves’ loss to the San Diego Padres, pushed the Nationals’ edge to 5 ½ games in the National League East, a new high this season and tying their largest lead since baseball returned.
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1. Joey B. has ignited his October #Natitude Posted: August 14, 2012 at 08:12 AM (#4207825)Best record in all of baseball by 2.5 games, best run differential in all of baseball at +108, best team ERA in all of baseball at 3.24, and offensive numbers that just keep getting better and better as they have now scored 253 runs in their last 45 games. Oh, and 27 out of their last 46 games will be at home, and the remaining schedule is far from nasty or anything.
Sure, Atlanta could still take the division and we're still at the stage of the season where ALMOST anything in theory could happen, but what are the realistic odds that the Nats miss the playoffs completely, like maybe 2 or 3 percent at most? Silly Mets fan.
It's still too early to say that it's a 100% lock, but at 97 or 98%, it's pretty damn close.
In any event, Dial's "analysis" that Esoteric linked to is easily one of the most silliest, most bizarre baseball items I've read here in all my years at the site.
Now all you need is to Ray to echo this statement, and we are all set....
But Dial does have a history of outrageously stupid predictions. The RDP/Red Sox fiasco from last year has obscured the reality that it's Dial who is really Primer's own Dave Cameron.
Anyone who has watched baseball for a long time knows exactly how this will play out.
(1) The Braves and Nationals engage in a heated dogfight pennant race. After 162 games, both teams are tied. A one-game playoff decides who wins the decision. (For reasons explained below, the eventual winner of the division is not significant.)
(2) The Cardinals spend eight weeks repeatedly raping the Astros and as a result, are able to barely grab the 2nd wild card.
(3) The exhausted loser of the one-game NL East playoff is handily defeated by the Cardinals in the Wild Card Game.
(4) The Cardinals then go on to win 3 straight playoff series and repeat as World Champions.
Signed, a bitter baseball/Nationals fan
And, if we are to believe the reports, one of them will be doing nothing but sitting and watching right at the end of the season when they might need him most.
I only resisted that friggin playoff deposit for all of three days.
Harper looked pretty good. 2 hits, and I saw him hit the ball solidly at least one more time. Hopefully he's coming out of his funk a little.
Eso, do you really want to turn into Joey Jr.?
This is the worst porno ever.
Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo.
The Nats have a 5.5 game lead on a very, very, very good team in the Braves. They pose a constant threat. It's entirely realistic that they overtake them for the division lead by the end of the season. (A good run against the Nats in their remaining head-to-head games is all it would take to even things up dramatically.) But despite my dispositional inclination toward despair, I have to tell myself, intellectually, with each passing victory, that...hey, this might be the year.
Oh, and Guapo's scenario in #11 is horrifyingly plausible. See, that's the thing: Guapo's "Cards as classical Greek nemesis" (because it's always the Cards...why does it always have to be the CARDINALS?) scenario isn't just the sort of thing I constantly worry about, it's the sort of thing that I often think is too OPTIMISTIC. Somewhere in my heart I still fully expect a catastrophic collapse, even though I know it's statistically and historically unlikely at this point.
I don't think they should ever be showing 100% until clinching. Even if it rounds that way, just list it as 99.9%.
Odds of winning division + (.5 * odds of winning a wild card)
One and done in the play-in game isn't much of a postseason. The Nats are obviously big favorites to play in the postseason, and a case can be made that their front-line starting pitching and likely home-field advantage would give them a small edge in the play-in game, if that's where they ended up. That still gives them something like 86 + (.6 * 13) = ~94% odds of making the playoffs. That seems about right to me.
True, but if this year's playoff format had been in place last year, the Braves would have made the one game wild card playoff.
On this date in 1969, the Cubs were 1.5 games ahead of the Nats current pace, 9 games ahead of the Cardinals and 10 games ahead of the Mets. There's a lot of season left.
Ibid.
But they're like planes crashes, we all remember them, even though dozens (hundreds?) of teams with leads like the Nats (and Yankees and Reds...) end up cruising along to victory no problem. MCoA's calculation, which I agree with, probably puts the Nats' odds about right. All these posts about the 6% that do happen are just silliness. Come October, the Nationals will be in the (real) playoffs. So will the Yankees, and the Reds.
There's a lot of legitimate great races--the NL West, the Wild Cards--we don't need to pretend the non-competitive ones are too.
I think most Nats fans would've been thrilled with a WC2 slot at the beginning of the year. But expectations change as reality sinks in. Nobody had Philly as a 4th place team. Nobody had the Nats with the best record in baseball. It's a weak year in the NL, in general, and the Nats have taken advantage. The expectations today absolutely are different.
It's certainly a better way to get the rest of the league to take you seriously than overpaying Jayson Werth.
And this goes to my problem with the Strasburg decision... that's an awfully big assumption to make there.
I think Lassus did.
Edit: Took 2 attempts to get it right.
I formally propose a deal: we Nats fans will stop with the gloating when the concern trolls and the jealous haters give it a rest with all the bullshite about how the Nats are going to collapse.
EDIT: One of my all-time favorite radio calls from Charlie Slowes, says it all really.
Forgot all about him. Thank God.
God, that was embarrassing.
Oddly enough, the commercial's central contention -- "NOW they'll know who Wil Nieves is!" -- curiously failed to come true.
Why did they use one of the Super Mario Brothers in their ad?
I can't get the You Tube here Eso but I will check it later.
Heh. Those were great.
I figured this was a Sal Fasano joke. But bb-ref tells me that he never played for the Nats. So I'm lost.
Speaking of Sal, I'll never forget when he hit his home run for the Yankees. He looked like the most surprised guy in the ballpark that he had hit it. Running around the bases, pipe wrenches and stuff were falling out of his pockets.
I love the particulars of the numbers: The Nats get about $29M now. They're asking for like $100M. The Orioles have countered with $35M. No wonder it's taking so long to bridge that gap.
Are you kidding? This guy leads the league in most offensive categories, including nose hair. Why, when this guy sneezes he looks like a party favor!
In fairness, John Lannan does seem to flat own the Braves. You'd think facing him 751 times over the past half decade would give them some clue how to hit him, but apparently not.
Thats not even the most bizarre one. Soft tossing lefties stump a few teams. Braves' have a noticeable weakness against such pitchers. So maybe excuse that.
But the Braves' do well against soft tossing righties ( Even Livan they started hitting well ) except 1. Kyle Kendrick. He absolutely owns the Braves. Is horrendous against all other teams, but the Braves can't buy a run off him.
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