Baseball Primer Newsblog
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Friday, May 04, 2012
I believe it was David Grabiner Lloyd George that said…“This WAR, like the next WAR, is the WAR to end all WAR.”
As many have noticed, we have not been updating the 2012 WAR data in-season. The reason for this is that we have been working on a major upgrade to our WAR framework. The link above gives a very detailed rundown including: how to compute each part of our WAR formula, our reasoning on making the changes, downloads for historical WAR data, charts of the various constants and factors we use, and a chart of differences between the new B-R WAR, the old B-R WAR and FanGraphs WAR.
...All in all, these are major improvements to the system and while there are dozens of details, here are the main points of difference between our old framework and the new one.
• Switch from BaseRuns for batting to an advanced wRAA metric.
• Folding ROE, infield singles, SO vs. Non-SO into wRAA.
• Excluding pitchers’ hitting and averaging by league rather than year from the league averages for wOBA and wRAA.
• Estimation of CS numbers for leagues they are missing.
• Use of Baseball Info Solutions Defensive Runs Saved from 2003-present (in our view the most advanced defensive metric).
• Use of a player-influenced runs to win conversion for both batters and pitchers based on PythagenPat.
• Use of a player-specific park factor for pitchers weighted by actual appearances in each park.
• After a preliminary WAR calculation, we fine-tune the replacement level on a playing time basis, so the total WAR in each league is very consistent year-to-year.
• I’ve changed the oWAR and dWAR formulations. oWAR is now called ndWAR for (no-defense WAR), but is the same otherwise. dWAR now contains the position component of WAR, so the Career Leaderboard is now dominated by SS, C and other great defensive players.
for his generous support.
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