Was The Unit worth the risk to Dennis Haysbert's career?

Yes.

Okay, I was (evidently) wrong about how stupid the Meche & Marquis signings were (maybe), but the idiocy of an RJ deal was so obvious even I could get it right.

It's still not as stupid as the Chris Carpenter extension.

For Johnson to have suffered the same injury as before, he had to beat the odds. He was told by Dr. Robert Watkins - who performed the surgery in October and did nearly the same procedure on Johnson a decade earlier - that he had only a 5 percent chance of that happening.

So basically the Dbacks acquired him knowing that there was 95% chance he recovers fully from the back surgery and becomes the dominant pitcher he demonstrated he could be in his last several starts, and that there was a 5% chance he would re-injure his back.

Now I know that everyone on this site is a brilliant baseball mind and an amazing GM just waiting for the right major league team and opportunity to come a-knocking, but rolling the dice knowing you'd be right 95% of the time isn't really an idiotic move.

Given what the Dbacks gave to the Yankees (basically, AAA roster filler and middle relief garbage), and that RJ's contract is insured, so that the Dbacks will collect insurance on his deal if he has another surgery and ends up on the 60 day DL, the deal wasn't idiotic. It appears the Dbacks got that 5% unlucky roll of the dice... but that's par for their season so far. So far, it seems that most things in AZ have gone a lot worse than expected.

Anyhow, please don't let me interrupt this "Internet poster = Genius, Baseball GM = Idiot" session. Carry on

The DBacks also were smart enough to realize that they actually had a shot this year, and that it was worth taking some risk for a big short-term payoff.

So basically the Dbacks acquired him knowing that there was 95% chance he recovers fully from the back surgery and becomes the dominant pitcher he demonstrated he could be in his last several starts, and that there was a 5% chance he would re-injure his back.

Where are you getting the percentages from here Levski? The trade didn't really work for both teams, so I'm not here to give you a hard time, but I was never under the impression that RJ was 95% likely to be healthy this year.

Anyhow, please don't let me interrupt this "Internet poster = Genius, Baseball GM = Idiot" session. Carry on

It's more like "Yankees GM = Genius, Dbacks GM = Idiot". At least in this instance.

I was never under the impression that RJ was 95% likely to be healthy this year.

It was a 5% chance of suffering the same injury according to RJ's doctor.

To say it had a 95% chance of working out for Arizona assumes:

1) That is the only possible injury Randy Johnson could have suffered and

2) Barring this injury, there was a 100% chance that Johnson's performance would be worth the money.

Levski bases this second assumption on "his last few starts" which even if these prove that Johnson would have been dominant, are totally irrelevant to the D-Back's decision-making process as they took place AFTER the deal had been made.

It was a 5% chance of suffering the same injury according to RJ's doctor.

Thank you, I missed that over the offseason.

Now I know that everyone on this site is a brilliant baseball mind and an amazing GM just waiting for the right major league team and opportunity to come a-knocking, but rolling the dice knowing you'd be right 95% of the time isn't really an idiotic move.

Oh, I see. So why did he get hurt, then? Wasn't that part of Byrnes's plan?

It's really easy to pull statistics out of the air and pretend they mean something. Judging from the data we have--Johnson has a history of back injuries, is old, had a back injury last year, and now has one this year--I'd say the chance of his back getting hurt was way higher than 50%, an order of magnitude greater than 5%.

I loved the deal for the Diamondbacks. I was convinced that not only was Randy Johnson not finished, as many claimed, but that if he could remain healthy, he would be an excellent addition to Arizona's staff.

As for health, he's had back problems for a long, long time, and he managed to pitch 670-something innings from 2004-2006. I expected him to miss some time, and he has.

But if AZ ends up with 120 innings out of RJ, with a sub-4 ERA and 150 strikeouts, I think they got a good deal for 2007 considering how little they gave up. It certainly looked like the NL West was a soft division coming into the season, and once you make the playoffs, you have to like an RJ/Webb 1-2 punch.

It's not like Arizona isn't in contention, either. They're 7 games over .500 and 2.5 games out of 1st place. Randy Johnson may not make a huge difference over the regular season (although I think he's already helped them), but if they make the playoffs, they'll be happy to have him.

They are also paying $12M for that 120 innings. But in reality, I'm not sure they could have found a better option for that money. RJ's contract ends next year, so it's not going to hamstring the team, no matter how it turns out. Plus they have the insurance. I think it was a decent gamble given how little he cost in minor league talent combined with the short duration of the contract. It's much better than spending $17M per year until the end of time for someone like Zito.

Levski bases this second assumption on "his last few starts" which even if these prove that Johnson would have been dominant, are totally irrelevant to the D-Back's decision-making process as they took place AFTER the deal had been made.

Well, what I meant was that the Dbacks assumed RJ could get back to being his dominant self when healthy, and his last few starts proved that it was a rather reasonable assumption.

Judging from the data we have--Johnson has a history of back injuries, is old, had a back injury last year, and now has one this year--I'd say the chance of his back getting hurt was way higher than 50%, an order of magnitude greater than 5%.

Wait, aren't you Dr. Nick, from Hollywood Upstairs Medical University?

***

By the way, the Dbacks sent Carlos Quentin to AAA and promoted Jeff Salazar.
LINK

Also, Justin Upton has been playing RF in AA, with Carlos Gonzalez playing CF. They are either prepping Upton for RF in the majors, or showcasing CarGo to a team needing a centerfielder.

Well, what I meant was that the Dbacks assumed RJ could get back to being his dominant self when healthy, and his last few starts proved that it was a rather reasonable assumption.


Fair enough but a reasonable assumption on his effectiveness hardly compels the conclusion that they were "rolling the dice knowing you'd be right 95% of the time."

I also thought it was a good signing. Fairly short term, high upside, and at the time when making this type of investment could pay tremendous dividends.

I have a hard time seeing how this, at the time, was a bad deal for Arizona. In a world that values Ted Lilly & Gil Meche (granted that both have pitched well) to the tune of 100 million dollars, committing 26M to Johnson seems like a decent-enough risk. It's not like his performance was falling off a table; aside from a huge increase in HR/9, his two New York seasons were pretty solid (yeah, I know, that's a helluva aside, but still). How many pitchers have thrown 430 innings of roughly 103-ERA+ ball the last two years? His strikeout rates also suggest that he still had good stuff left.

As Sheehan pounds home every few months, it's not the money, it's the years. In an ideal world, the Diamondbacks don't give the second year, but given their real shot at winning the division (something that was forseen in the off-season) a bit of an overpay, but hardly an extravagant one.

Happy Base Ball

Also, Justin Upton has been playing RF in AA, with Carlos Gonzalez playing CF. They are either prepping Upton for RF in the majors, or showcasing CarGo to a team needing a centerfielder.

CarGo was at DH last night and Ball in CF, and Upton in RF. I think they are getting Upton ready for a callup soon. A Mistake, IMO

Not a bad deal for the reasons given above, but I think it was pretty obvious Johnson was done as a dominant HOF pitcher before they got him. Being as old and as tall as he is, his margin of error with his mechanics and health issues was too slim to realistically think otherwise.

If it did nothing other than convince fans that the team was serious about winning -- fans want a big-name star even if all he offers is a name -- and it gave cover to continue a youth movement that will make this team competitive for the next decade, they did good.

Who doesn't like the D-backs team over the Yanks going forward?

Who doesn't like the D-backs team over the Yanks going forward?

Yankee fans? And Michael Kay.

Well, that 5% figure certainly is a good illustratiuon of useless quantification.

The cynical view: "Tell them a soothingly low number, but not so low they will go after me if the injury recurs."

Who doesn't like the D-backs team over the Yanks going forward?

Well, I would bet big money on the Yankees winning more games than the D-backs in the next five years if I got even odds.

Who doesn't like the D-backs team over the Yanks going forward?

$220M.

Would you be willing to give me odds on the Yankees out-winning the D-backs over the next several years?

Edit: I owe the Chef a Coke...

Who doesn't like the D-backs team over the Yanks going forward?


Yankee fans? And Michael Kay.

Yeah, who would pick a team with the best minor league pitching in the game and a 200 million dollar payroll.

Who doesn't like the D-backs team over the Yanks going forward?

I think the players currently toiling for the D-backs are a better bet going forward than the players currently toiling for the Yankees. But I agree with the others above - I don't give the D-backs very good odds as a franchise competing by winning percentage over the next few years over the Bombers.

Yeah, who would pick a team with the best minor league pitching in the game...

Yup, those 2002 Cubs sure went on to have several really dominant years...

Granted, their payroll was only $100m or so...