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Me, I'm happy. The handwringing about Mauer in a Yankees (or Red Sox) uniform can stop, Mauer can play out his prime in his hometown. All that's left to worry about is whether he can keep it up and become The Greatest Catcher of All Time.
Mauer, Rodriguez, Jeter and Wayne Garland. There's a pantheon.
Hope this is true. I would have hated to see him anywhere else, including the Red Sox.
I'm not quite sure it's set yet (although I've never doubted for a second it would eventually get done).
I can't imagine Rosen would go this seriously with a rumor just from him, would he?
Agreed. Obviously, the selfish Red Sox fan part of me wants my team to have a shot at a future HoF catcher (who wouldn't?), but ultimately I'm glad it turned out this way.
Rick DiPietro
(EDIT: I am looking through my rose colored Glasses Of Objectivity with the cool Twins hologram logo on the side. Leave me alone as I enjoy this moment.)
226 million.
I assume that meant at least 10 years in each case, although I don't know that for sure.
####### party pooper.
No way. He doesn't play enough. Despite the batting titles, Mauer has never had 200 hits in a single season, and unless he stops walking or starts playing more, he's not going to do it a bunch of times in the future, either.
#### Buster Olney. This is real because I want it to be real.
The NHL salary cap rules have some oddities that make it sensible for teams to give guys ridiculously long contracts. I don't understand the details, but you definitely can't compare NHL to MLB in this respect.
In addition to Helton who had club options extending the deal to a maximum of 10 years, there's also Manny Ramirez who signed an 8+2 deal with Boston.
Well done Twins, good move.
Surely you mean Juan Gonzalez.
Edit: Soda pop.
I might be missing something here, but I think you mean EDWIN Encarnacion.
If it is a 10 year deal, my guess is $275 million.
I'll still take the under. And I love me some Mauer.
I'd take the under on that but not as confidently as I would on the 2,000 hits. I'll buy an increase in power but I'm betting he goes between 15 and 25 home runs over the next ten years. If he gets 2,000 hits in the next ten years (assuming no position change) he will go down as the greatest catcher of all time.
MLB never had any intention of contracting the Twins. They just wanted to scare Twins' fans into paying for a new pleasure palace (which they ultimately did, though I can't say this threat was the primary reason).
Joe Mauer does not need "legs".
In a vacuum, yes. Given the situation as a whole, Mauer's local roots, what he means to the franchise both on the field and off, etc, and when compared to the alternative (not signing him), it makes sense.
This isn't your average ten year deal, assuming it's true.
Also, if it really is ten years, I seriously doubt it's for more than $225M, and quite possibly less.
And yes, he could go Kendall (or Shanty Hogan -- another guy from his comp list who didn't play much or well from age 27 on). But Dickey, Berra and Cochrane are prominent on his comp list and I don't think you'd regret having signed any of them to a 10 year deal at a similar age.
Or it might be a pitcher's park.
He can run faster with his teeth than mortal beings.
Then, of course, we don't know the money that team has, and the financial three-card monte it can rig up to pay this at much less than it seems to portend. In 2008 right before the market tanked and oil and natural gas prices dropped like an anvil, companies were paying ten thousand dollars an acre and more to landowners (and mineral rights owners) for oil and gas leases in North Louisiana. I asked one oil company executive how they could do that and make a lot of money. Are you kidding, he said. After all expenses, including up-front lease money and paying the land companies to do the leasing and vetting title, on a two section unit, we'll come out with $500,000,000.00 what with the prices being what they are. Of course, that's gross revenue, before taxes (ha ha).
The assumption in a market system is that the general result will be the arm race between labor and capital will reach stasis. In other words, if they can pay it, they can afford it. If they can't, then it'll adjust. Of course, MLB isn't a pure market system by any means, but that's only because all the concessions are given by labor--I don't see how that doesn't benefit the owners.
On another note, while Mauer's awesomeness is only exceeded by Matt Wieters, last year was really his first holy #### season. While he's had other very, very good years, it wouldn't surprise me if by signing after 2009, the "discount" he gives the Twins winds up being closer to fair value.
I assume that meant at least 10 years in each case, although I don't know that for sure
It was Dan Quisenberry, not Frank that got one oddly. Quiz was actually released just three years after his "lifetime contract." And Brett's was just a five year extension in the middle of a five year deal. I think they were all called "lifetime contracts" because there were deferments and real estate investments involved that would have paid them well into the next century.
Wilson and Quiz ended up both negotiating settlements with the club to terminate the payments when they were released. Wilson filed for bankruptcy a few years ago.
Cochrane played his last full season at age 31, Dickey at 32.
I was going to say that he would literally throw himself across the bases using his laser rocket arm, but I guess that works too
OK, but if Mauer posts full season OPS+ of 132, 109, 158, 145, 143, 133 like Dickey did from ages 27-32, anything he produces for the last 4 years is gravy.
He must have meant Robert Moses. He offered them a contract with the Mets, but they took it as an insult and went to LA.
And then they start talking about what the hell the Twins will do with Morneau in a few years.
It never ends.
But I don't think the exercise works if you get to pick Dickey's years from ages 27-32 and you get to be optimistic that you can get something better-than-Dickey out of Mauer for the last four years. You're either going with Dickey as your model for how the contract will hopefully go or you're not.
Dickey was still useful after age 32, but simply was not worth a gargantuan contract for those last four years.
I object to this type of analysis. Under this analysis, for the deal to "work" you basically have to assume that Mauer gives you seven top years. Then you'd be willing to eat some of the last three years. But if he gets hurt in year 3 or goes all Jason Kendall on you... then what?
If this is true, I bet it is for $190 million.
At issue here is length of contract and the fact that, historically, catchers don't last into their 30s. And the fact that Mauer has had some injury troubles before.
On the other hand, he's a great player, and great players can tend to surprise us.
But the other major, major issue is that his market value is through the roof right now because he's coming off of a peak year. So you're basically paying for him at his peak. I have serious questions:
Can he hold his power increase? Is it for real? He's entering his theoretical prime so he may well be able to.
Isn't a batting average of .365 basically the top of his range? His AVE/OBP/SLG/HR are all career highs. Can we expect that he'll reach some of those career highs again multiple times over the life of the deal?
As to the latter, well, that's always a risk. If that stops you, then you would never sign any top notch free agents. As for the former, if it's 10/210, well, according to fangraphs, Mauer's 2008 was worth 26 mil, and that was the third best season of his career. 7 years of that (nothing higher, nothing lower) gives you 182 mil. He then needs to be worth just 9 mil per (in 2017 dollars) to break even.
How many catchers have ever hit .365 in a season?
Not true. One of the ways you handle the "disaster risk" is by not signing guys to 10 year contracts. The risk that a guy will get seriously hurt within, say, the next 3 years is the same whether you sign him for 3, 5, or 10 years but the potential cost if that happens obviously increases as the years increase.
That's not to say that 10 years for Mauer is necessarily a bad idea nor am I saying he wouldn't get a 10-year offer if he was an FA. There are presumably rare cases where a 10-year commitment is worth the gamble (ARod with the Rangers being the obvious example) and Mauer might be one of those cases.
Nor am I questioning that teams and agents know all this already and it's part of the negotiation that arrives at the final price. That is, the difference between, say, 7/$175 and 10/$200 is probably pretty trivial in NPV terms.
EDIT: disaster risk can be handled by insuring the contract of course -- if you can get it at a reasonable price.
I also don't see a position change being imminent. Rather than forcing Mauer to learn a new position, I would think you could just gradually increase his number of days off/days at DH to extract as much value from the catching position as possible. Maybe he's strictly a DH by the end of the contract, but I heard for years that Piazza was finished as an everyday catcher and he lasted behind the dish until he was 37. Certainly, Mauer is a better pure athlete than Mike Piazza (a large man in his own right).
This is a good move for the Twins and, more importantly, a positive development for the sport.
Edit: And I'll predict an even 10/200
According to baseball-ref .367 was the top and .365 was second most for a catcher in a season. So the top of his range is second best ever. I didn't realize that he led the league in BA SLG and of course OPS. Pretty good season.
I simply can't see him getting a 10 year deal on the open market, at least not at the prices we're talking about here.
7 years on the outside.
What is the most number of years a catcher has signed for?
Has David Wrights status fallen that much just because he didn't hit so many dingers?
I can, if we're talking about a ten year plunge: someone who isn't a catcher or a pitcher.
As for "immeasurable value to the city/organization," can we at least stay a little bit rational here? Here is how the Twins finished in AL attendance for each full season of Mauer's career:
YEAR: ATTENDANCE RANK (Finish in standings)
2005: 9th in attendance (3rd place in the standings)
2006: 9th (1st place)
2007: 10th (3rd place)
2008: 8th (2nd place)
2009: 5th (1st place)
They're not exactly setting attendance records - despite having good teams (which Mauer obviously is a big part of). They've generally been between 2 million and 2.5 million fans over the course of his career. Granted that's better than they'd generally been doing in the years leading up to Mauer. But they drew 3 million fans in 1988, the year after they won the WS. To listen to some people here, one would think that they're drawing that many fans for Mauer.
Not until you shut Ray up.
In last winter's market, Mark Teixeira pulled down 8/180. Preceding that deal, he had posted full-season wOBAs .345, .389, .405, .374, .406, .410 on the far right of the defensive spectrum. Assuming this deal begins in 2011, Joe Mauer would be a year younger relative to the beginning of his next contract, coming off full seasons of .344, .396, .354, .378, .438. Thus, comparable hitters (.385 v .389 career), but you could argue on the merits of his hitting ability alone, that Mauer is a more valuable offensive player than Teixeira (for 2010, ZiPS agrees by a wide margin). So even if Mauer becomes a 1B/DH tomorrow, 10/225 wouldn't be an absurd overpay for a player of Mauer's offensive ability-- a hitter who comfortably projects to have best OBA in the American League. Now, considering he is likely to catch for a considerable sum of those innings over the next 10 years-- and that the contract may very well be a lower AAV than Teixiera-- I think it's pretty clear Mauer's market value easily exceeds 10/200. Especially, with all of the usual suspects likely to be bidding.
Now, if you believe the risk of injury is prohibitively high, or the wear-and-tear will erode his hitting abilities, I guess there is an argument to be made. But Mauer is really, really good at getting on base and if he can be 80-percent the player he was last year for the next three or four seasons, his value would far exceed his salary. Adjust for inflation and I think betting on Mauer being worth ~$20 million as a hitter, at age 36 isn't nearly the worst gamble we've seen in the past few markets. And, obviously, his upside is that of an 8-9 win player.
You're raining on it.
I agree. For a 10 year deal, Hanley Ramirez, who's younger and plays a position where there's less wear and tear on the body, and who had a better chance of being a good corner outfielder if he needs to move position, would be a better choice for a 10 year deal, for example.
It's a little misleading to give the finish in the standings in the division and the attendance rankings in the league. Last year, for example, the Twins had the fifth best record in the league. In 2008, they were 6th in the league in wins. In 2007, they were 8th in wins. Going back to 2006, they drew poorly compared to how they played.
Considering that they play in a smaller metropolitan area than the other good teams, their attendance has been quite good relative to their place in the standings, especially last year.
I think the real issue, anyways, is that it will be a blow to the morale of the fan base in MN if Mauer leaves. I suspect that will lead more to idle threats of people not going to any more games than to actual follow-through, but probably there will be at least a bit of each.
Heh.
I was thinking more along the lines of a cult.
The word "immeasurable" should have been a clue that the speaker wasn't talking about attendance figures.
I'll take a stab at explaining some things: if not for a beloved, hometown hero like Mauer, it is doubtful that the Twins would have gotten their new stadium when they did (which is very important, given the later economic downturn probably would have prevented it for many more years). The Vikings probably wish that Brett Favre was a Minnesota native! Otherwise they may not see a new stadium for some time either. And if the Twins let Mauer walk or traded him as the new stadium is opening, I'm guessing revenue projections for the place (conservatively estimated by the team as at least $20 million extra per season) wouldn't be quite so rosy. And given Mauer's special status in Minnesota, he will probably continue to be valuable in these ways even as his performance on the field diminishes.
And strictly looking at on-field performance, I don't know if Mauer can repeat 2009, but even if he doesn't, it's not as if the Twins have a good catcher ready to take his place. They easily project to be a contending club in their division for at least the next 3 years, if not longer, which Mauer's absence would significantly jeopardize. How much value is in a pennant race? Or a postseason appearance?
Tossing aside these benefits would save you ~$20 million in salary, minus some amount that Mauer generates himself, minus the amount that it would take to immediately acquire another big-league catcher, minus some amount for reduced chance of pennant races and postseason play... I really don't know if you would even be "saving" that much cash in the end. And what would you propose doing with that cash? Signing Chone Figgins? Lining the owner's pockets? I doubt a Mauer contract will affect how the Twins operate in the draft, in Latin America, or in player development in general. Frankly, I'm not seeing a lot of great alternatives for this money over the next few seasons.
The Twins don't throw money around freely; in fact, they are often criticized for not spending enough. So if/when this contract comes to fruition, I think I will give the Twins some benefit of the doubt, that they recognize the unique benefits they derive from a beloved hometown hero like Joe Mauer and what he means to their cherished bottom line.
I'm not so sure. Demand for seats in new ballparks is quite high.
That being said, if this is what Minnesota had to do to lock up Mauer, then it's a good move. I know that the city loves him and it stops the "teams can't keep their stars" storyline from being written over and over again. But it wouldn't be surprising if they have 5 years of this contract being a big, unmovable mess. To a team like the Twins, that could be pretty deadly.
Pretty sure every player in the NHL is on a 10-15 year contract at this point. I think it's mandatory.
This is true for many contracts -- teams will sign a a player in his early thirties to a contract that extends well after that player will retire, so as to front-load the deal and bring down the average salary (and, thus, the cap hit) -- but that doesn't really apply to DiPietro, whose contract really is 4M/year for 15 years.
I know that this argument sounds a little esoteric, and that a lot of boycott threats would be idle, but I think there is some truth to this. I think attendance and ticket buying patterns could be greatly affected -- Mauer generates a lot of interest in and loyalty to the team, and hope for their competitiveness, leading to more season ticket reservations and advance ticket sales which are far more valuable than single-game walk-up tickets to the club. The same probably goes for corporate tickets and sponsorships.
The Twins probably have some leeway because they are the only pro sports game in town for the summer (sorry, WNBA), and they already have their new stadium. But with a weakened or just poorly-regarded team, Minnesotan fans could easily revert to their recent Metrodome attendance habits. If the new stadium and accompany season ticket / sponsorship levels were already well-established, this might be less of a risk; as it stands, I think the Twins have to be careful of it.
Yeah, good luck with all of that.
Since the storyline was always so much nonsense to begin with, as it is with pretty much every team, I don't know why we'd expect it would stop after Mauer is locked up.
For one year. With Mauer in the fold. How many people renew next winter if Mauer is already gone, or if it looks like he will be gone? How many people take a "wait-and-see" approach to ticket buying, thus increasing the risk that one bad season could hinder the club financially?
When the economy goes back up, salaries will start rising much faster than inflation again. When that happens, long contracts, even for players with declining value, can be good deals. A guy who hits like Mauer is, right now, probably a $22 million/year player on the free agent market as a first baseman. He had a better year than Teixeira last year, and if moved off catcher, would probably hit a little better. Even in a role like Mickey Tettleton in his early 30's, catching 50-70 games but playing almost every day somewhere, a hitter like Mauer is a hugely valuable player, and would be moveable. Now, if he loses something offensively and stops being able to catch everyday, then they could be in trouble.
Tell that to the Nationals. They haven't exactly done all that well with their new stadium. Demand is likely to drop if Mauer is replaced with Sal Butera's kid.
I mean, I know that all contracts are not signed based on such reasoned logic, but it seems like the Twins should have a reputation by now as being pretty cautious and risk-averse. So why don't they get some benefit of the doubt on this thing?
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