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Monday, February 01, 2010

WCCO: Sources: Mauer, Twins Agree To 10-Year Contract

Gotta love Twitter, heard this from 3 people within minutes:

Sources tell WCCO-TV’s Mark Rosen that American League MVP Joe Mauer has come to a preliminary agreement with the Minnesota Twins for a 10-year contract extension.

Mike Emeigh Posted: February 01, 2010 at 09:08 PM | 113 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: twins

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   101. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 02, 2010 at 02:39 AM (#3452278)
Good job for Minnesota!

I'm really glad the "OMG! Mauer is going to the Yankees" comments are going to be put to bed (and I'm a Yankee fan).
   102. WillYoung Posted: February 02, 2010 at 02:39 AM (#3452279)
They're not exactly setting attendance records - despite having good teams (which Mauer obviously is a big part of).


That's because they were playing in the Metrodome.
   103. Ray (RDP) Posted: February 02, 2010 at 02:43 AM (#3452283)
That's because they were playing in the Metrodome.


As I said, they drew 3 million fans in 1988 playing in the Metrodome. 1st out of 14 teams.
   104. Something Other Posted: February 02, 2010 at 02:45 AM (#3452284)
Mauer is in his own class. He's a significantly better hitter than Cochrane, Bench, Berra or any other catcher through age 26. He obviously has more value as a catcher, but it is pretty clear that he is going to be able hit enough after he moves to another position.
Mike Piazza clears his throat.

Mauer is not yet in Piazza's neighborhood as a hitter. I was also a little startled to note that Mauer's career SLG is still below 500.
   105. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: February 02, 2010 at 02:51 AM (#3452291)
Mike Piazza clears his throat.


Johnny bench tentatively raises his hand as well. His OPS+ through age 26 was 130 in 4500 PA vs Mauer's 136 in 3000.
   106.     Hey Gurl Posted: February 02, 2010 at 02:52 AM (#3452293)
Mike Piazza clears his throat.


You're disgusting.
   107. Craig in MN Posted: February 02, 2010 at 03:03 AM (#3452298)
As I said, they drew 3 million fans in 1988 playing in the Metrodome. 1st out of 14 teams.

After coming off the first championship in Minnesota in most peoples memories, in a stadium that was still considered to be pretty nice. It was a fluke. They have never come within a half a million fans of that in any other year. The next highest year was just shy of 2.5 million...again right after a championship. The Twins basically equalled that this year. They're coming out for something, and it's not to bask in the glow of the World Series.
   108. spycake Posted: February 02, 2010 at 03:03 AM (#3452299)
As I said, they drew 3 million fans in 1988 playing in the Metrodome. 1st out of 14 teams.


And 1988 attendance is relevant how? I don't doubt the Twins could draw well after a world championship season, with or without Mauer -- it's how they might draw in the non-championship seasons that probably concerns the club. And they've got a 15-year track record of a public indifferent to buying tickets -- I doubt that one season in a new ballpark will reverse that trend enough to weather a jolt like losing Mauer.
   109. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 02, 2010 at 03:06 AM (#3452301)
It's hard to comment on the merits of the deal without knowing the details. Yes, a longer deal shifts more of the risk from the player to the team, but depending on the cost and how that cost is spread out over the contract, it might still make sense. I think the point many were making is that if you sign him for $200/10, and he provides $200M of value over the first 7 years of the deal, the last 3 years are just "gravy".
   110. Dr. I likes his panda steak medium rare Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:57 AM (#3452353)
That is, the difference between, say, 7/$175 and 10/$200 is probably pretty trivial in NPV terms.


This is pretty much how I see it. Doing some simple calculations:

7/$175MM spread out evenly is $25MM/year. Assuming 10% discount rate, this gives us an NPV cost of the contract at about -$121MM.

10/$200MM spread out evenly is $20MM/year. Assuming 10% discount rate, this gives us an NPV cost of the contract at about -$123MM.

Changing the discount rate changes things a bit, and of course the structure of the deal matters. But if we compare these two hypothetical cases, it is basically a wash.

So if you don't think Mauer is worth a 10 year, $200MM deal, then basically you don't think he would be worth 7 years at $175MM either.
   111. Tripon Posted: February 02, 2010 at 05:10 AM (#3452360)


Tell that to the Nationals. They haven't exactly done all that well with their new stadium. Demand is likely to drop if Mauer is replaced with Sal Butera's kid.


The Nats pulled in 2.3 million in their first year in the new stadium, 1.8 million in their second year. The last year in Montreal? 749,550. The Nats don't have to do much to do much better than they were when they were Expos.
   112. jingoist Posted: February 02, 2010 at 06:49 AM (#3452377)
Cograts to all the twins fans at BBTF; to say that you deserve this is an understatement.

I've always thought that the coolest thing in sports is when a team and a player and the city that the team plays in comes together and ensures that that player plays for that team his whole career.

I wish the same for Jeter and Pujols; I hope the Nationals and Zimmerman end up the same way.

When Willie Mays left the Giants for the Mets I felt bad for everybody involved, especially Willie in his final year of floundering around in the field.
Why the Giants didn't pay Willie NOT to play those last two years......

Anyway I think Mauer will be to Minnesota what Ripken was to Baltimore.
   113. SABRJoe Posted: February 02, 2010 at 07:24 AM (#3452380)
Anyway I think Mauer will be to Minnesota what Ripken was to Baltimore.


A f_ckface?
   114. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: February 02, 2010 at 07:46 AM (#3452382)
A guy who looks 50 when he's 32?
   115. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 02, 2010 at 08:44 AM (#3452390)
Anyway I think Mauer will be to Minnesota what Ripken was to Baltimore.


A dead ringer for my uncle Bobby?
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