Sure, why not. Now maybe he can hit those 40 home runs.

Chone had a .241 OBP last year.

Ichiro had a .335 SLG last year.

????

Profit!

Two spots in the batting order is what ... 40 less PAs over the season? So Ichiro loses about 12 hits right away. He'd have to hit about 15 or 20 points higher in BA to make up those hits. Not that I care but I suspect he does.

This seems like a very strange idea.

Who is #1?
You are #6.

Wedge is hoping against hope that Figgins magically becomes his 2009 self, Ackley comes up with a .390 OBP, and Ichiro! is so inspired he hits .340 again. Ha.

This will work about as well as the great Cust/Bradley/Byrnes experiments. If that. I will consider it a success if Suzuki fails to lead the league in GIDPs.

Chone had a .241 OBP last year.

And they are going to let him lead off. If I were a Seattle fan, I'd be furious. As a baseball fan, this level of stupidity is just downright offensive(or lack of it...boom tish!)

If it fails, wedge can say he did all he could. If it works, wedge can day he fixed everything. This idiocy will play with most fans.

I will consider it a success if Suzuki fails to lead the league in GIDPs.

That's the genius of leading off with Figgins -- there will rarely be anyone at first to double off. Success!

Well. all I really know is that if Ichiro hits .370 this is a great idea, and if he hits .270, it's a terrible idea.

Figgins with no runners on:

Avg .185, OBP .247, SLG .256, OPS .503

It doesn't matter, because Montero is going to hit 200 home runs an they're going to win 140 games, all on Montero walk-off home runs.

Ichiro was tied for 50th in the AL for GIDP (11). Figgins tied at 115th (6). It's all hair-brained logic. Personally, I think they're trying anything and everything just to shake things up. At some point, going all "Billy Martin" and throwing the line-up in a hat may not be such a bad idea.

Ichiro's slugging percentage was 30 points lower last year with men on than with the bases empty. For his career, his men-on SLG is 14 points lower than with runners on. Of course, it's not like he's keeping Babe Ruth or even Alvin Davis out of the third spot.

#11 Those are better than his overall numbers so we can expect a bounceback season!

Personally I think Ray DiPerna is behind this move. As stated above, Ichiro will get less AB's, then subsequently less hits and will hinder his chances of making the HOF. Damn you Ray!

Is this Wedge's way of telling management he's got nothing to work with?

At some point, going all "Billy Martin" and throwing the line-up in a hat may not be such a bad idea.

Other than acquiring Montero, I haven't really paid attention to what the Mariners did this offseason, but looking at their BB-Ref page, the uniformity of the offensive suck across their lineup was pretty remarkable last season. I doubt the range from best to worst lineup for last year's Mariners would be more than 10-15 runs over a 162-game season. Honestly, it's not inconceivable that Ichiro would project as their best option in the 3-hole.

No way Montero hits 200 HR. I've got him with 93. 96 runs and 97 RBI.

Doesn't this sortof conform with The Book?

Edit: I can't find a direct cite and I'm too lazy to go downstairs and get my copy, but ISTR that they had the #3 hitter as much less important than generally thought, and not among the top 3 hitters on the team. Granted I think they still profiled that spot as good for a guy with decent power, but still...

Doesn't this sortof conform with The Book?

Edit: I can't find a direct cite and I'm too lazy to go downstairs and get my copy, but ISTR that they had the #3 hitter as much less important than generally thought, and not among the top 3 hitters on the team. Granted I think they still profiled that spot as good for a guy with decent power, but still...

Yeah, The Book says to put your 3 best hitters at 1, 2, and 4, and your next two best hitters at 3 and 5. So, batting Ichiro #3 could be consistent with that, sure. Batting Figgins leadoff, on the other hand.

The Book also says that the best way to leverage basestealers is to bat them in front of "a batter who hits lots of singles and doesn't strikeout much." So, it makes sense to put Figgins in front of Ichiro, if he can get on base often enough to actually be much of a basestealing threat. Maybe Ackley, too, he only stole 6 bases last year but was never caught.

No way Montero hits 200 HR. I've got him with 93. 96 runs and 97 RBI.

I'm projecting him to play a full season, of course.

Calling it now, Ichiro finishes top ten in the MVP voting.

This cries out for a estimated line for Ichiro!...

I'll go..nope, can't do it. Instead how about an over/under on how long the experiment last? Or a "pick the calendar date" it ends? As a Ms fan, I want to like the idea. I admire the positive spin from Ichiro! himself and commenters over at the Seattle Times...but, this will end badly, right?

#24 Did the rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic end badly? Yes.

But not because of moving the deck chairs about.

au contraire! Leo would have made the lifeboat if he hadn't tripped over one of those re-arranged deck chairs. Then we don't get that stupid movie.

Butterfly wings!

Just listened to some local sports talk on the radio about this (which I never do) and it was almost entirely nonsense about how this might finally encourage Ichiro to hit some doubles. Basically all not-so-veiled commentary about how he should have been taking a team approach with his hitting style all along, and nary a mention of Figgins being a black hole. "Now, Ichiro has that generally high average, but he's the kind of leadoff hitter that makes you tear your hair out by swinging at the first pitch. Sure, he might get a hit, but Chone's the kind of guy who takes some pitches . . ." I paraphrase, of course.

I'd be annoyed enough at this variation on the "blame your best player" theme, but part that really rankles is Figgins getting rewarded for his miserable, miserable performance.

It doesn't matter, because Montero is going to hit 200 home runs an they're going to win 140 games, all on Montero walk-off home runs.

I can't wait. Those 59+ walkoffs in road games should be epic.

Chone had a .241 OBP last year.

Oh, stop exaggerating.

Wait, what?

See? Ichiro could bat third if he wanted to.

#27 One of the things that really surprised me was finding out that in his best years Mark McGwire was more likely to swing at the first pitch than Ichiro! was.

Ichiro in fact has always taken more pitches than the league average. For his career he's swung at the first pitch only 21% of the time (but with a wide range here. 15% in 2006, 25% in 2003 and 2004) and average is 28%. It says an awful lot about selective memory and our perceptions about the kind of player he is that almost everybody assumes he swings at the first pitch all of the time.

He sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than most players because he's very good at making contact when he swings and is far more likely than average to put the ball in play when he does connect.

I'd be annoyed enough at this variation on the "blame your best player" theme, but part that really rankles is Figgins getting rewarded for his miserable, miserable performance.

I think you're missing a miserable there.

God I am glad I am not a fan of a team coached by Eric Wedge anymore.

I can't imagine this makes much difference. The Seattle offense is terrible, and Ichiro's not very good anymore anyway.

It's highly likely that neither Ichiro or Figgins is on this team the next time they break .500. I mean, Figgins has to be less than three bad months from being cut.

This seems like a very strange idea.

This is like 1983, when the Reds batted Dave Concepcion 3rd, because dammit he was the last real link to the Big Red Machine, and so was the only batter capable of putting TEH fear into opposing pitchers...

and so what if he coughed up a .233/.303/.280 line, and was the worst regular in the lineup...

seriously though, yowza was that a bad lineup the 2011 Mariners had...

2012:
Ackley: Nice year, but he hit .304/.364/.536 before the all * break and .265/.344/.386 after
He did appear to play well in the PCL in 2011, hitting .303/.421/.487, but his team hit .289/.368/.459, he was 41st in the league in OPS, just behind Mike Jacobs (yes the Mike Jacobs).
OTOH you gotta like guy who walks more than he Ks right?
I'm guessing that his 2012 ZiPS projections are going to disappoint some Mariners' fans

Smoak: I was not a big fan of his, seeing him as a lesser version of Logan Morrison (Morrison has outhit Smoak- relative to league every single year*, even the year Morrison was hurt, when BA boosted Smoak up to #13 in 2010- ahead of Morrison, they must have just had a collective brainfart. I think both men have performed relative to each other as should have been expected- Morrison is 15-20 points of OPS+ better than Smoak, I think nevertheless that both have been mildly disappointing to date- that's not so bad for Morrison, but Smoak can't fail to meet reasonable expectations, he HAS to exceed them

2012 could be really awful.


*hell accounting for relative league offense Smoak was not as good in the minors as Carp... Smoak is a guy who came up already on the wrong end of the defensive spectrum, he's not and wasn't going to be the second coming of Keith Hernandez, so essentially his prospecthood depended upon his hit and power tools, and basically there are some things to like, he likely is an MLB hitter, but considering where he is on the defensive spectrum, he's just not good enough, maybe he'll improve, but right now he;s never shown any sign in the stat sheets that he's better than Mike Carp, who was no one's idea of a prospect- I'm not trying to elevate Carp, I'm just saying that Smoak when drafted by the Mariners, and later ranked by BA was clearly being overrated.

I can't imagine this makes much difference. The Seattle offense is terrible, and Ichiro's not very good anymore anyway.

Yeah, I'm not sure this matters. It's not like Ichiro's .310 OBP was doing wonders in the leadoff spot anyway. Though they didn't have many options. The real problem is that this is a bad offense with not much to offer. Smoak, Ackley, and Montero are really the only bright spots. And it's time for Smoak to get something done. He started off so well last year but took an almost unfathomable nosedive.

He sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than most players because he's very good at making contact when he swings and is far more likely than average to put the ball in play when he does connect.

Mattingly was like that, look at his walk totals, then look at his K totals. He once joked in an interview that he would love to figure out how to foul the ball off...

Years ago I was reading one of the Bill James Abstracts while the Yankees were playing the Twins, and just as I was reading a comment about Kent Hrbek - James said that Hrbek must have taken a lot of called third strikes because James had literally never seen Hrbek swing and miss- Hrbek was up and K'd on 4-5 pitches- all swing strikes... I though that was funny at the time... Mattingly? dude always got the bat on the ball- even after he hurt his back, but could no longer drive the ball-

Ichiro as a hitter is like post back injury Mattingly- but with plus plus speed (Mattingly had poor speed)

I ran the projected lineup(1) through the Morong/Arneson/Armbrust lineup tool, using ZiPS projections for each player's stats (except Montero, where I used a projection from RotoChamp), and the result was 3.8 runs per game (621 runs per season). The optimum lineup,(2) on the other hand, resulted in 3.9 runs per game (630 runs per season).

(1) From CBS Sportsline: Figgins, Ackley, Ichiro!, Smoak, Carp, Montero, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan.
(2) Ackley, Smoak, Ryan, Carp, Suzuki, Olivo, Gutierrez, Montero, Figgins.

(2) Ackley, Smoak, Ryan, Carp, Suzuki, Olivo, Gutierrez, Montero, Figgins.

That's the best lineup? That has some interesting results. Brendan Ryan hitting 3rd? Ichiro 5th? Jesus Montero 8th? Really? (I'm not saying I don't believe you or think you made a mistake; it's just a very untraditional lineup - probably even more than the one Wedge is proposing)

Might have something to do with being a column off on Montero's projection (277/343/443; I put his AVG in as his OPB and his OBP as his SLG). Corrected for that, here's what I got:

Projected lineup: 4.04 R/G (654 R/season)
Optimum lineup: Ackley, Montero, Ichiro, Carp, Smoak, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan, Figgins - 4.12 R/G (667 R/season)

Which looks much more like what one would expect, although the difference is still only about one win on the season.

About half of the top thirty lineups have Ichiro batting third. Not surprisingly, all of the top thirty have Figgins batting ninth.

(1) From CBS Sportsline: Figgins, Ackley, Ichiro!, Smoak, Carp, Montero, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan.

HTF do they plan on batting Montero 6th?

On what planet is Smoak a cleanup hitter?

I wouldn't pick Wedge to manage a 3rd-grade recess kickball team. Maybe 2nd-grade

#28 is why I come here. Good show.

I can't wait. Those 59+ walkoffs in road games should be epic.

Those will literally be walkoff home runs. They will be hit in the first inning, and be so devastating to the opposition that they will walk off the field rather than be further humiliated, and forfeit the game. And Selig will rule that the home run still counts.

Off the top of my head, I would go with:

Ackley, Gutierrez (hope he's recovered a bit), Smoak, Carp, Montero, Suzuki, Olivo, Ryan, Figgins.

On what planet is Smoak a cleanup hitter?

Smoak was 2nd on the 2011 Mariners in SLG - .396 to Ackley's .417 (Mike Carp, Casper Wells, and Alex Liddi also out-slugged Smoak in a combined 473 PAs). If you bat Ackley #1 or #2 (he led the '11 Mariners in OBP, too, at .348), then your "power" options are Smoak, Carp if he's a starter now, and Montero. One of them has to bat cleanup, right?

Smoak was 2nd on the 2011 Mariners in SLG - .396 to Ackley's .417 (Mike Carp, Casper Wells, and Alex Liddi also out-slugged Smoak in a combined 473 PAs). If you bat Ackley #1 or #2 (he led the '11 Mariners in OBP, too, at .348), then your "power" options are Smoak, Carp if he's a starter now, and Montero. One of them has to bat cleanup, right?

I'd go Carp. At least you can hold on to the hope the 122 OPS+ is real.

Figgins with no runners on:

Avg .185, OBP .247, SLG .256, OPS .503

Jason Vargas and Erik Bedard have hit better than that for their careers. Maybe the Mariners should DH for Figgins depending on the pitcher.

If you bat Ackley #1 or #2 (he led the '11 Mariners in OBP, too, at .348), then your "power" options are Smoak, Carp if he's a starter now, and Montero. One of them has to bat cleanup, right?

Only in a fallen world.

DB

It doesn't matter, because Montero is going to hit 200 home runs an they're going to win 140 games, all on Montero walk-off home runs.

I can't wait. Those 59+ walkoffs in road games should be epic.

Well, once a True Yankee, always a True Yankee, so that brings it down to 53, but he's on his own after that.

Smoak - I dunno. He had a weird year last year, with the bereavement and the injuries and being on a suck team. I'm prepared to believe he could have a good year (25+HR) but at this point M's fans pretty much expect the low end of any projected range. And then are disappointed. How 'bout those Sounders!!

Optimum lineup: Ackley, Montero, Ichiro, Carp, Smoak, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan, Figgins

I think I'd go with the traditional good #3 hitter and use

Ackley, Ichiro, Montero, Carp, Smoak, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan, Figgins

Ichiro has good bat control and isn't a terrible #2 hitter when you consider the other options.

I think I'd go with the traditional good #3 hitter and use

Ackley, Ichiro, Montero, Carp, Smoak, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan, Figgins

Ichiro has good bat control and isn't a terrible #2 hitter when you consider the other options.

Not bad.

But isn't Saegar probably better than Figgins at this point?

Not bad.

Yes, it's bad. It's almost nearly awful.

It's one of the *better* options, considering what they have to work with, but it's still bad.

Yes, it's bad. It's almost nearly awful.

It's one of the *better* options, considering what they have to work with, but it's still bad.

Oh agreed. It's all the way to awful. But, it's pretty well optimized awful.

On the bright side, Ackley, Montero and Smoak could all develop into well above average hitters, Carp could be a 120 OPS+ guy, and Jaso could bounce back to unseat Olivo.

But, there are going to be 3 or 4 black holes in that lineup.

No. 45
Morong analysis for Ackley, Gutierrez, Smoak, Carp, Montero, Suzuki, Olivo, Ryan, Figgins gives 4.09 R/G (662 R/season).

No. 52
Morong analysis for Ackley, Ichiro, Montero, Carp, Smoak, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan, Figgins gives 4.10 R/G (664 R/season).

Optimum lineup with these players - Ackley, Montero, Ichiro, Carp, Smoak, Olivo, Gutierrez, Ryan, Figgins. 4.13 R/G (669 R/season).

No. 53
Seager's ZiPS projection 267/323/372. Figgins's ZiPS projection 242/323/305.