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1. dejarouehg Posted: August 31, 2009 at 12:36 PM (#3309547)Just wish he'd take less time between pitches. Between him and Beckett it would be nice if the umps enforced the time rule.
It's also heartening to see what Dave Duncan has been able to do with a HoF pitcher who got run out of Boston.
Man, you need to loosen up before stretching that hard to take shots at Boston, Andy. You're going to pull something.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
Heck with the backseat, Papelbon has a LONG way to go before anyone should consider him in the same car as Rivera.
Was anyone else's automatic response to that "God I hope so"?
Sure, 2009 has been his weakest season as a closer, but that’s sort of like saying Nicole Kidman’s scene sans clothes in “Eyes Wide Shut” is her worst.
Is he implying that only gay people think this is Papelbon's weakest season as a closer?
Joe Nathan always gets hosed in these discussions. He's been a full time major leaguer since 2003, and in 6 of those 7 full seasons his WHIP has been under 1.00. The other season, it was 1.019. Dude is fantastic, but he hasn't had the opportunity to shine in the postseason quite as much as Papelbon and Rivera.
Both Nathan and Papelbon aren't even in Rivera's universe just yet, however. Someday we need to determine once and for all if he is, in fact, an android.
I sometimes wonder what would've happened if he was made a starter like the Sox originally planned. He doesn't seem to have that right mental makeup for that role. Then again, I've thought that about Derek Lowe. (Dollar Sign on The Muscle had an interesting discussion about psych tests for players. IIRC, topline starting pitchers usually scored high on emotional control.)
We'll see Jamie Moyer on the mound in a G-string dancing to "I Touch Myself".
Smoltz should definitely be the Game 1 starter if the Cards make the World Series.
And I agree with #9. Even yesterday when the Rangers loaded the bases with no outs against Nathan I was confident he would escape. He's unbelievable.
I'm sure it's also heartening for Smoltz to have faced the Padres in San Diego and a Nationals team that was hitting Pete Orr (did you know he was still in baseball?) second. There's a good Mr. Wolf (from Pulp Fiction) quote about this...
Digger can be a cruel father-in-law.
Man, you need to loosen up before stretching that hard to take shots at Boston, Andy. You're going to pull something.
Only your leg, Shooty.
Yeah, kudos to Duncan for getting Smoltz wins against the Padres and the Nationals.
Beyond that obvious shot at Red Sox fans, two points. First, Smoltz was getting lit up by the bad teams in the AL, too. So obviously he's doing something differently over in the NL. It isn't just the AAAA competition.
Second, if Smoltz does continue to pitch well, it wouldn't be Dave Duncan's first successful reclamation project.
And beyond that, I am always glad to see a great pitcher like Smoltz not have to go out of a sour note. I'd say the same thing about Wakefield.
What's your point here? Papelbon has a career ERA+ better than Rivera's. He just doesn't have enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard. The only thing Rivera has on Papelbon is longevity. It's a very big "if" as to whether Papelbon can keep up his current level of performance for another 10 years, but both in the regular season and in the playoffs, he's outperformed Rivera on a per inning basis, and in terms of what he's done through the same age.
But, you would probably have made the same argument against Pujols in year 4 if someone had the audacity to compare him to Bonds/Aaron/Mays which would look silly now (assuming you believe that Pujols numbers are not "artificially" inflated, which I don't).
Papelbon, for the entire lenghth of his career has been a phenominal pitcher whether you want to acknowledge it or not, and certainly in Mariano's class during that span. (As is Nathan.)
And, great as Mariano is, and yes, again I acknowledge that he is the best modern-style closer of all-time, don't get hysterical about it. Sandy Alomar and the Red Sox (repeatedly) have proved that. (Unfair as this might be, he wouldn't be going to the HoF if his overall stats mirrored his work against the Red Sox.) (The Luis Gonzales broken bat pop-up was a fluke and might have been caught if the defense was at DP depth, though Mariano did commit a throwing error and hit a batter!!)
Heck with the backseat, Papelbon has a LONG way to go before anyone should consider him in the same car as Rivera.
Career-wise, totally agree. Papelbon needs to do what he's doing (or close to it) for 4-5 more years to really even be discussed with Rivera.
Now, if we're talking today, right now, then sure, Rivera/Papelbon/Nathan are all in the same "car" or whatever other metaphor you want to use.
Well, this year Rivera (who's 39) trails Papelbon (who's 28) by 244-243 in ERA+, and has a WHIP that's .386 lower, which is a hell of a gap in Rivera's favor.
When Rivera was 28, he'd had three years of relief pitching, with 239, 238, and 232 ERA+ numbers. And then he kept it up for another 11 years. Papelbon's impressive, but you could fill a museum with pitchers who were great at 28 and through by 35. Obviously by your post you're aware of this, but it's precisely the longevity factor (plus the postseason) that makes Rivera a breed apart.
Rivera (1.014) trails Papelbon (1.001) in WHIP for their (very different in length) careers. I have no idea what you were looking at to get a difference of 0.386.
Rivera (1.014) trails Papelbon (1.001) in WHIP for their (very different in length) careers. I have no idea what you were looking at to get a difference of 0.386.
This year Rivera's WHIP is .907, and Papelbon's is 1.293, which is higher than Rivera's worst year. Both of those sets of numbers referred to 2009.
I think Papelbon will wear out his act. He has a history of being downright obnoxious when talking money.
If he could just act like Jason Bay.
Paps may be the greatest postseason closer since this guy!
It would be a really interesting auction. Papelbon would probably be the youngest and best player on the trade market since Ruth.
How much does Boston believe in peripherals? If they could hop in their time machines, would they have attempted to trade Matsuzaka (I know, I know, NTC; it would have been a complex deal anyway) after last season's win total? Do they see Papelbon's declining peripherals as a sign of trouble ahead?
I think it's reasonable to assume that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. That said, I think there'd be a revolt among fans if the FO were to do this, and I don't think the solutions to this role live in-house (unless I've completely missed the boat on Bard, which is quite possible).
Since heading to AAAA, he's tweaked it-hence the success.
Nothing at all to do with Duncan.
Now why he couldn't figure it out on the Sox 5 million....grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Um, what?
In the same deal, Roberto Alomar (22, with another 3 years under contract) and Fred McGriff (26, with at least another couple years under contract).
EDIT: I guess that also depends on what you mean by the modern era.
Roberto Alomar (1990).
Edit: Dammit Ryan.
No way does Scott Kazmir in August of 2009 draw the same attention and same return that Papelbon would.
True statement, IF one understands that the "running out" was done by AL bats, rather than the assumed management/media/fan triumvirate.
You are just way, way wrong here.
I have no clue what he'd bring in the open market. Would he fetch Tulowitzki? Theriot? Something in-between?
Anthony Quinn's undershirt?
I'm pretty confident it's not Tulowitzki.
Perhaps, but Papelbon seems to be used more sparingly than the much older Rivera as far as 4+ out saves and pitching 3 days in a row. Hard to predict health going forward, but I don't think there will be the market for Papelbon's free agent years that post # 32 suggests. Long-term contracts for pitchers are risky and Papelbon would have to have a career year in 2010 to approach Rivera money for 3 or 4 years. More likely he gets less.
His statistics, while extremely impressive, seem a lot more dominant than his performance on the field. A lot of innings with two strikeouts, a walk, a hit, a couple of full counts...and no runs allowed. And his innings take forever.
Bard, in contrast, gets the ball and throws it. No expression, no drama - I think he's going to be an elite-level closer by 2011 for somebody.
Headline: Closer Clipped By Boston Bettor.
Myers had 8 years of very good closing over a 10 years stretch, interrupted by one year where the Reds tried to make him a starter, and one year in San Diego where he saved 38 games, but didn't pitch all that well.
Well, this may be partly because the Red Sox bullpen has enough good relievers that they don't need to push the limits with Papelbon.
I think it's actually that he's having a bad year (by his standards), and a lot of Red Sox fans are worried this is the beginning of the end, rather than noticing that even with this off year, he's still better than 90% or so of the closers in baseball.
Papelbon July-Aug: 21.2 IP, 18 H, 6 R, 1 HR, 7 BB, 29 K
He's been great, he's as good a bet to be great going forward as most any short reliever in baseball.
I can't believe this isn't snark.
Papelbon's under team control for two more years, and he made $6.25 million this year in his first year of arbitration. Those will be his age 29 and 30 seasons. He's not even in the discussion of best young player on the trade market this decade.
Dan Haren comes to mind, for one.
So you'd need a trade that would make them better in the short term and the long term? The Red Sox look to be in position to sacrifice some long term value for a short term improvement.
I think this is true of almost all closers, Rivera excepted. The position is one that just doesn't lend itself to "fan comfort." In a one-run game a closer can come in and strike out the side, but if he went 2-0 on the leadoff hitter- fans were climbing the walls wondering if the bum would ever get anybody out again.
Closers often pitch in stressful situations. I think fan perception of them is colored by that fact.
The Red Sox have enough quality RPs that it would be smart to move Papelbon for a SP or a corner OF for next year.
Certainly it would be insanity to trade Papelbon during the current season. Trading Papelbon in the offseason can only be evaluated alongside the other moves the team is making - if they save money in the trade, how is it being spent? - and so on. My point was merely the general claim that the return for Papelbon needs to be measured against much more than just the 25th and 35th picks in the 2012 draft.
That is the most likely career path for every reliever. What Rivera has done is essentially unprecedented. He has been an outstanding full-time reliever for 14 years, piling 1,010 innings since his half-and-half year of 1995, with 11 years of 190+ or better ERA+.
How much value is a hot-shot closer to a team that may have good pieces to trade, but don't have a shot at the brass ring?
Of course the problem with this is the old "the grass is always greener" mentality, and right now Bard is more potential than anything else. But give him another year and the Red Sox might be in a good position to get some real value for Papelbon without doing all that much damage to their bullpen.
And I say all this with pure objectivity. Since C.C., Hughes and Burnett are going to be routinely shutting out the Red Sox for the foreseeable future, it's kind of a moot point for us Yankee fans. (smile)
I don't know. Rivera's greatness hasn't led to any rings for the Yankees the last 9 years.
Certainly a poor team doesn't need a great closer, but I don't think a great closer is necessarily worth anymore to a good team than an equally great SP or hitter.
Another year would be ideal in terms of Bard's development and maintaining the necessary win now focus of McOA's post #62.
That's also based on the beleif that Papelbon will hold up thru 2010 and have similar perceived trade value then (minus the year of pre-FA control, of course). If you think that Papelbon is a high risk of not holding up in 2010 then this winter becomes a "trade him a year too early instead of a year too late" moment.
Another year would be ideal in terms of Bard's development and maintaining the necessary win now focus of McOA's post #62.
That's also based on the beleif that Papelbon will hold up thru 2010 and have similar perceived trade value then (minus the year of pre-FA control, of course). If you think that Papelbon is a high risk of not holding up in 2010 then this winter becomes a "trade him a year too early instead of a year too late" moment.
Yeah, and seriously, if I were Theo, I'd be strongly advising Francona to try to establish Bard in the automatic 8th inning setup role a la Hughes, and if he could put up Papelbon / Hughes numbers there, I'd definitely consider trying to fill some more pressing needs by shopping Papelbon. But only if Bard has shown that he could produce on that level---I'm not a big fan of the "anyone can close" school, certainly not for a team that's always going to be in postseason contention. (coke to Srul for #64)
If it was Game 7 tonight and Papelbon was hurt, I would rather have Okajima and maybe even Ramirez close out the game rather than Bard. Now, I know that Okie is a free agent after this year. But Ramirez is under team control for a while, and the Sox could resign Okajima or sign someone else to be the closer if Papelbon is traded; they don't have to automatically jump to Bard. The potential trade return and the internal health evaluation should be the major factors in deciding whether to trade Papelbon.
the reliever who pitches fastest shouldn't automatically be considered the team's best. Sincerely yours, Keith Foulke
I think they have value to the Sox, Yanks, Angels and other big market teams because they are teams that can afford to spend big money on a closer yet still aggressively pursue quality at other positions. Conversely, a team like the Twins is better off spending everywhere else then on the great closer last.
They have, whether out of a desire to "establish" Bard or just out of a belief that he's the best man for the role, started using him in that 8th inning role. He has been excellent for the most part but did hit a hiccup that came at the most inconvient times blowing games against Tampa and New York.
A great SP or a great hitter is always worth more to ANY team. That is not the question, and I am sorry if I was not clear. I was not talking about the value of different players to a good team with post-season aspirations, but the value of closer to different teams at different points of the success cycle.
The value of a closer, I would have to think, is in part be dependent on how often you expect to have the lead going into the 9th inning, and how often that lead is going to be in a crucial game. We talk about different innings having different leverage to winning the game -- what about different games also having different value, to winning a pennant or a post-season series?
My guess is that most people would agree with you as of August 31, 2009. However, these scenarios are always looking ahead to 2010/2011 and I think the answer to "if Game Seven was taking place on August 31, 2011, who would you rather close out the game" the answer would be Bard over Ramirez or Okajima.
But if you'd groomed Bard for the 8th inning setup role from the beginning of spring training next year, do you think that by the end of 2010 you'd still say the same thing? (EDIT: coke to Jose)
I also think that while Okajima may more reliable right now, a pitcher with triple digit heat and a command of that pitch is a more reliable bet in the long run. As long as he's not a head case, he's got more of a margin for error.
Of course I'm basing this only on the few times I've seen Bard (though I've seen Okajima plenty of times), so this is more of a general observation than it is any specific thought on Bard. As we all know, there are plenty of guys who throw in the high 90's who don't have command (or the mental makeup) to be a reliable anything, let alone a closer.
Bard's fun to watch, but he hasn't really established that he's any better than Ramirez or Okajima. The Red Sox are fighting for a playoff spot this year, and Francona should be using whichever reliever is going to be most effective for a given situation this year, rather than auditioning Bard for a closer's role.
And, of course, Trevor Hoffman, one of the all-time greatest closers, never threw in the high 90's.
I guess I'd have to pick Bard over the others for who I'd want in 2011 as closer, but I think it is far from a slam dunk.
I seriously doubt anyone is going to drool over Papelbon the way they did over Hudson and Mulder.
Well, since a top flight closer gets about $10-12M per vs. $20+M for an elite starter, and fewer years, I'm 100% sure you are correct.
Brandon League says aloha.
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