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Friday, March 19, 2010

WEEI: Speier: Overlooked superstar: The perception of Kevin Youkilis

Ahh…back to the ANTiSEEN days.

“Every time I go to an All-Star game, basically, I’m in shock that I’m there, that I made an All-Star team,” said Youkilis. “I always think there are guys who are ahead of me in the game. Sometimes I know that I can play at that level, but I don’t think of myself as an elite player. … I just think I’m a good player on a good team.”

...“We’re the Boston Red Sox. We play in the toughest division in baseball. And he hits in the middle of our lineup,” said hitting coach Dave Magadan. “He might be a little different animal than a lot of other teams have hitting fourth, but I’ll take him over anybody else. He gives you a great at-bat. Guys in scoring position, he’s going to grind out the at-bat, make the pitcher work. He’s going to get on for the guys hitting behind him. I wouldn’t trade him for anybody.”

...“No one took me in college because of the body type,” said Youkilis. “It’s baseball. This isn’t muscle fitness and body building. This is baseball, and if you’re a baseball player, you’re a baseball player. Babe Ruth didn’t look like much of a baseball player, but he was one of the best of all time. There’s great hitters along the way who didn’t have the bodies, but they go out and play the game the right way.

“You can’t worry about that stuff. I’ve gotten over that,” he added. “Growing up, you get a little self-conscious. … [But] you can’t change your genetics, but you can change what you can do on the field and get better at the game. For me, that’s what I did.”

Repoz Posted: March 19, 2010 at 12:08 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox, sabermetrics

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   1. Craig Calcaterra Posted: March 19, 2010 at 12:43 PM (#3482141)
Wrangler should sign Youkilis up for a husky jeans ad.
   2. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 19, 2010 at 12:47 PM (#3482142)
Wait a minute...we ARE selling jeans now? Wow, Moneyball really is dead.
   3. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: March 19, 2010 at 12:53 PM (#3482146)
I actually appreciate that Speier wrote this article. For all the "Red Sox offense will suck w/o Bay" talk this off-season, there has been little acknowledgment that Kevin Youkilis is easily good enough to be the best hitter in a very good lineup. He's a great player.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: March 19, 2010 at 01:07 PM (#3482155)
Yet his last two seasons at OPS+ of 143 and 145 would have been considered underperformance if perpetrated by Manny. He's a decent player, but at his peak and likely to begin declining soon. He's the best hitter on the current Sox, but wouldn't be on a truly good team. Sell.
   5. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 19, 2010 at 01:11 PM (#3482161)
Manny's last two years with the Sox;

2007 - 126 OPS+
2008 - 136 OPS+
   6. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: March 19, 2010 at 01:12 PM (#3482164)
Manny Ramirez has been a better hitter over his career than Kevin Youkilis. Where that gets us as it relates to how good of a player Youk is I have no clue whatsoever.
   7. plim Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:28 PM (#3482206)
as a red sox fan, it's hard to swallow the heart of our lineup having gone from manny/ortiz combining for 80-90 hr to youkilis/vmart who totalled 50 hr last year.

it's true, we might be undervaluing youkilis, but let's not kid ourselves here and think that he will ever hit like manny or ortiz did.

and yes, manny/ortiz weren't their typical selves the last couple of years, but there's always the hope that they'll return to form. of course, with every passing year, that hope fades even further.

as an offense overall, we have't scored > 900 runs since 2005.
   8. My Grate Friend, Peason Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:39 PM (#3482216)
7: I'm a Red Sox fan, and even I think that's whining.
   9. plim Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:45 PM (#3482223)
who's whining? people think that we're undervaluing youkilis and that he's as good as manny ramirez. they're saying our offense is as good as it has ever been.

i'm saying wake up and smell the coffee, he's not manny, and our offense is not the same as before.

not calling youkilis one of the greatest right hand batters of all time is not whining. recognizing that our offense is not the same caliber as the 03-05 hay day is not whining.

to think otherwise is naive/fanboyish.
   10. Benji Gil Gamesh is not being paid to be that guy Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:50 PM (#3482227)
He's the best hitter on the current Sox, but wouldn't be on a truly good team. Sell.


I don't disagree that Youk is unlikely to get any better and won't be this good much longer, but:

Youk 2009: 145 OPS+

The 2009 Yankees' (a "truly good team," yes?) two top performers, were Teixeira (149 OPS+) and ARod (147 OPS+). And since Youk is a little more OBP-heavy than the others, I'm going to bet that he was no worse than equally good with the bat, at least on a rate basis.
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:53 PM (#3482233)
who's whining? people think that we're undervaluing youkilis and that he's as good as manny ramirez. they're saying our offense is as good as it has ever been.


who? where is this being said?
   12. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3482238)
not calling youkilis one of the greatest right hand batters of all time is not whining. recognizing that our offense is not the same caliber as the 03-05 hay day is not whining.


Sorry plim, but phrases such as "hard to swallow" and "we haven't scored > 900 runs since 2005" come across as a touch of whine.

The Red Sox offense was third in runs scored in the AL in 2009, a perfectly respectable position. I don't think we have some divine right to one of the top two spots or clearing 900 runs.

The general position is the offense as constructed should be plenty good enough to support the run prevention abilities of the pitching staff and defense.
   13. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3482239)
people think that we're undervaluing youkilis and that he's as good as manny ramirez. they're saying our offense is as good as it has ever been.


I don't think anyone is saying either of those things. I think the point that a lot of folks are making though is that the Sox offense is still quite good and that Kevin Youkilis may not inspire the fear of Manny Ramirez or others he is still one of the best hitters in the game. He was 2nd in 2009 and 4th in 2008 in OPS which is not the be all/end all but that's pretty good.

Of course they are not as good as the 2003/2004 offenses but they are still very good and that seems to be getting lost in the "run prevention" narrative of the off-season.
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:57 PM (#3482241)
He's the best hitter on the current Sox, but wouldn't be on a truly good team


in addition to post #9, the Angels were a truly good team in 2008+2009, and the only time they had a better hitter than 08-09 Youkilis was half a season of Mark Texiera.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2010 at 02:59 PM (#3482245)
I don't disagree that Youk is unlikely to get any better and won't be this good much longer, but:

Youk 2009: 145 OPS+


Two great seasons at age 29-30, and a career OPS+ of 124 is just not a "superstar".
   16. Benji Gil Gamesh is not being paid to be that guy Posted: March 19, 2010 at 03:05 PM (#3482248)
Two great seasons at age 29-30, and a career OPS+ of 124 is just not a "superstar".


Which would be relevant if I were arguing that he was, rather than simply disagreeing that he's incapable of being the best hitter on a good team.
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: March 19, 2010 at 03:16 PM (#3482255)
One other bit of comfort for those Sox fans worried about the offense: this regime's willingness and ability to make in-season trades. If Ortiz can't hit, does anyone think they would be afraid to go get someone better and put his contract on the bench? no way. They'll have plenty of hitters to choose from when cheapskate owners on other teams start looking to save some money.
   18. bond1 Posted: March 19, 2010 at 05:33 PM (#3482366)
That's interesting that Youk led the AL in slugging the past 2 years combined. Nobody hit 40 HRs in the AL the past 2 years either. I'm still amazed some people around here don't think roids has anything to do with that.

I don't quite understand this "body type" nonsense. I just saw his 2003 Topps rookie card and Youkilis doesn't look that fat.
   19. It's just Steve Posted: March 19, 2010 at 05:36 PM (#3482369)
I sort of fear that Ortiz is going to hit just well enough to make it a little uncomfortable to cut ties after the season... And I agree that this is a well above-average offense, but I don't see much upside outside of Hermida (who isn't projected to play much) and Ellsbury. We've likely already seen the best of Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, while there is some collapse potential with Drew (injuries), Martinez, Beltre, and Ortiz. So, things could go badly.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2010 at 05:49 PM (#3482386)
And I agree that this is a well above-average offense, but I don't see much upside outside of Hermida (who isn't projected to play much) and Ellsbury. We've likely already seen the best of Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, while there is some collapse potential with Drew (injuries), Martinez, Beltre, and Ortiz. So, things could go badly.

That's about my take. There's really nothing wrong with the Red Sox, they're an excellent team. They only get nitpicked b/c they're not quite as good as the Yankees.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3482389)
So, things could go badly.

Sure. This offseason, the Sox clearly went for papering over some cracks rather than a long-term fix (Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro). But Bay would have cost as much as Cameron & Beltre combined so it's not like there were great options.

cheapskate owners on other teams start looking to save some money.

Cheapskate owners got a memo this offseason, y'know. There are a couple of potential slugger pickups in Berkman & Derrek Lee but I can't really see the Astros trading Berkman and Lee doesn't seem a great fit for Fenway even if the Cubs aren't contending. There are some interesting SP potentially available -- Arroyo, Bonderman, Harang, Lee, Lilly, Millwood, Webb.
   22. tfbg9 Posted: March 19, 2010 at 06:10 PM (#3482404)
Ah, but the Sweaty Ugly One absolutely rakes with men on and in the playoffs. Rakes--look it up.
   23. Nasty Nate Posted: March 19, 2010 at 06:30 PM (#3482420)
There are a couple of potential slugger pickups in Berkman & Derrek Lee but I can't really see the Astros trading Berkman and Lee doesn't seem a great fit for Fenway even if the Cubs aren't contending.


I was thinking even hitters down a tier from them. And if it is DH being replaced, they wouldn't be restricted by position and could pick among 1b, 3b, OF...
   24. Rich Rifkin Posted: March 19, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3482480)
The Red Sox offense was third in runs scored in the AL in 2009, a perfectly respectable position. I don't think we have some divine right to one of the top two spots or clearing 900 runs.

Even after you adjust for ballparks, Boston had the third best offense in baseball last year. No one in the NL was in the top 3 places:

NYY 126 OPS+
ANA 106 OPS+
BOS 105 OPS+
...
SFG 81 OPS+

The Yankees were really, really good.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: March 20, 2010 at 08:33 AM (#3482687)
Even after you adjust for ballparks, Boston had the third best offense in baseball last year. No one in the NL was in the top 3 places:

OPS+ (on b-r at least) doesn't include pitchers in the baseline but includes them in team stats (rightly). The exclusion of hitters makes sense for individual hitters but not for teams. Given that, NL teams will (on average) be lower than AL teams in OPS+. The average OPS+ in the NL was 94.

Besides, OPS+ is relative to league average so it's rather pointless to use it to compare teams from different leagues.

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