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Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Weigel: Who Does Bill James Think Will Win the College World Series?


Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, created the 10 Commandments of Baseball, which are listed below. These serve as a guide for teams on how to best play the odds and are not an exhaustive list of proper strategy nor are these principles true all of the time, but as general rules of thumb, following these rules can help a team win a lot of baseball games.

6. Thou Shalt Not Count to the Credit of the Pitcher That Which Is Done by His Fielders or by His Hitters, nor Charge Him with Their Failings

The Reason: It’s easier said than done, but in order to properly judge both pitchers and fielders, it’s best to isolate their performances. Studies have shown that pitchers exhibit very little control over the rates at which balls in play are converted into outs, thus it makes more sense to judge pitchers over results that they alone control, namely strikeouts, walks (and hit by pitches), and home runs allowed.

The Measure: Difference in FIP. Fielding Independent Pitching, commonly known as FIP, incorporates these three true results into a formula and then adds a league-dependent constant to put the number on the ERA scale. The constant is irrelevant in looking at the difference between two teams as it is added to both sides, so it will be omitted.

The Winner: Virginia, by 0.56. This is a huge number for a difference in FIP between two elite staffs. Vanderbilt has the edge in strikeouts, 1,228 to 1,076, and fewer home runs, 16 to 22, but their outlandish number of free passes surrendered, 295 to UVA’s 107, really brings them down and places them well behind Virginia in this metric. Look for UVA to stay patient and look to take free bases, especially against Vanderbilt’s Tyler Beede tonight.

Repoz Posted: June 25, 2014 at 09:46 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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   1. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 25, 2014 at 08:05 PM (#4735811)
So when you actually watched the game last night (this article was written yesterday), it came down to Commandment #8: Thou Shalt Not Abuse Thy Starting Pitchers.

Tim Corbin left Beede in to throw 120 pitches. Beede was at 97 entering the seventh inning (trailing 4-2) and endured a eight-pitch at bat to the second hitter in the inning, Daniel Pinero. With a lefty up and three straight lefty hitters due, I expected Beede to depart; he was pretty clearly having some difficulty locating his pitches by this time. Instead, it took another four hitters and two more UVa runs for Beede to be shown the gate.

Beede only walked three (one intentionally).

Carson Fulmer vs Josh Sborz tonight. Both will likely be on a short leash.

-- MWE

   2. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 26, 2014 at 12:02 AM (#4735937)
and yet, and yet... The Commodores are mighty and prevail
   3. Bote Man sez $/yr not yr/$$ Posted: June 26, 2014 at 12:16 AM (#4735943)
Alas, it's not a perfect world. If only...

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