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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

WFAN Mets: Keidel: Wright and Wrong

Jason from Ozone Park, you’re on the…TURN YOUR RADIO OFF!!...(chub-fingered dismissive TouchSmart wave).

Start with the M&M Boys. Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel are decent men who were given ample time to fix the team and failed. Either Minaya doesn’t get the right players or Manuel can’t manage them. Either way, it’s time for another tandem.

Angry fans chide Minaya for his lack of linguistic elegance. It would be nice if he had a better grasp of English, but winning never needs translation. And Minaya has given you very little.

Perhaps the recovery starts with Wally Backman, who would certainly bring grit to a docile dugout. The book on the Mets is that they fold once they fall behind, and that begins with the manager. Quitting doesn’t seem to be in Backman’s vernacular.

And leave Wright alone. Sure, he looks odd as the team’s spokesman. He doesn’t exactly cower after his shower while the media prods him, but he looks almost embarrassed as The Guy. He speaks in a teen monotone, overtly polite, a kid who can’t master a New York cadence. He’s not the guy to grab the microphone and wax Patton on his brethren. So what? Get the man who can. Don’t trade one guy when you can just add the other guy.

David Wright’s crime is that he got the leadership job by default and that he plays in impossible contrast to the other set of pinstripes. He should have more years, hits, and homers left in his bat than A-Rod. The Mets and their fans are tired of being the little brother, but trading Wright in a tantrum only reinforces the family tree.

Repoz Posted: September 28, 2010 at 02:53 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:24 AM (#3650023)
It's too bad about Santana's injury. With Beltran finally looking like he's shaking off the rust, I actually think they could have competed for a playoff spot next season.
   2. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: September 28, 2010 at 05:29 AM (#3650067)
Depnding on who the next Mets GM is, I'd try to trade him Trevor Cahill for David Wright if I was the A's. A dumber GM would see the ERA and jump on that.
   3. Something Other Posted: September 28, 2010 at 05:50 AM (#3650070)
Joel Sherman thinks the Mets are going to cut payroll again. Even without that they'd be going to $135m just to keep what they have. Next year's likely to be ugly.

With a good GM they have a chance to start turning things around in 2012. Niese and Pelfrey will still be affordable. There might be as many as four position players putting up decent numbers for the minimum. On the other hand, Santana and Bay will be getting around $40m probably without providing much, and the Wilpons will be doing the hiring. There's no reason to be more than very guardedly optimistic, but it would be nice to see a real hire for a change.
   4. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 12:03 PM (#3650120)
I think the 2010 Mets offense should have been somewhat better (Beltran, Bay) and their pitching somewhat worse (Dickey, Santana, Pelfrey). That's sort of how I expect the 2011 Mets to fare -- about the same record, but taking a different shape.

There's reason to watch though, at least in the first half, as the potential exists for better -- say, real rebound years for Beltran and Bay, finally great years from Wright and Reyes, big step forward for Ike ... I'm not predicting it, but there's reasons to tune in.
   5. formerly dp Posted: September 28, 2010 at 12:37 PM (#3650139)
I'm not predicting it, but there's reasons to tune in.

Absolutely. I'd rather Mejia was having late-season success than Gee, but between the two of them they could make the #4-5 slots interesting (Mejia hopefully gets 1/2 season at AAA). And there always reason to watch Dickey- who doesn't like watching knuckleballers?
   6. TerpNats Posted: September 28, 2010 at 12:44 PM (#3650143)
Perhaps the recovery starts with Wally Backman, who would certainly bring grit to a docile dugout. The book on the Mets is that they fold once they fall behind, and that begins with the manager. Quitting doesn’t seem to be in Backman’s vernacular.
"Bleep! The Next Generation."

I fully expect the Mets to hire Backman, if only to please the tabloid back pages.
   7. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 28, 2010 at 12:52 PM (#3650152)
As good as the Met starting pitching has been, it hasn't been THAT good. We are talking about a 103 ERA+ overall. With some luck and a good buy on the free agent market, perhaps with Santana coming back later in the season, they might be able to get close to that next year.
   8. formerly dp Posted: September 28, 2010 at 02:11 PM (#3650201)
As good as the Met starting pitching has been, it hasn't been THAT good. We are talking about a 103 ERA+ overall. With some luck and a good buy on the free agent market, perhaps with Santana coming back later in the season, they might be able to get close to that next year.

Pelfrey and Niese have both been up and down, and are still developing. They might put it together, or not. Pelfrey looked like a #1 for long stretches this year, but just couldn't avoid stringing bad starts together. There's room for growth, and as you said, a reason to watch the team with enthusiasm. Gee was pretty bad at Buffalo, but he did have a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and is at the same rate for his career, so there's some reason for optimism.

Beltran's overall numbers are starting to look decent. In terms of OB%, the Mets should be much better next year given a healthy Bay, Beltran- other than 2B, there hsouldn't really be any huge OB% sinks the way there was last year. A .350 OB% from your catcher is huge...
   9. Mark S. Posted: September 28, 2010 at 03:16 PM (#3650273)
d rather Mejia was having late-season success than Gee, but between the two of them they could make the #4-5 slots interesting (Mejia hopefully gets 1/2 season at AAA).


I'm hopeful that Gee's late season success will allow Mejia to get that half season in AAA. But with Santana's injury, I doubt he'll get that development time.
   10. formerly dp Posted: September 28, 2010 at 03:47 PM (#3650304)
I'm hopeful that Gee's late season success will allow Mejia to get that half season in AAA. But with Santana's injury, I doubt he'll get that development time.

I think a lot depends on the FO's attitude toward next year- if they see it as a rebuilding year, Mejia starts in AAA and some AAAA filler rounds out the rotation. If they're trying to contend, Mejia's in the rotation. Putting him in the bullpen to start the season was a huge mistake, especially given the way he was used. And I think the Mets realize that now.

Omar has been really good at over-fixing the problems from the previous season. If he does that this offseason, that means fixing 2B, provided he has the resources. There are always talented former prospects floating around, the Mets need to snag two of them and let them fight it out.
   11. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:19 PM (#3650340)
Omar's not going to be the GM.

I don't know how much money the Mets are going to spend but if they have the money, a quality starter and secondbaseman should be the goal of the offseason.
   12. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3650381)
I don't know how much money the Mets are going to spend but if they have the money, a quality starter and secondbaseman should be the goal of the offseason.


I'll send you Omar Infante for David Wright.
   13. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 28, 2010 at 05:01 PM (#3650393)
I'll send you Bobby Parnell for Heyward.
   14. Sam M. Posted: September 28, 2010 at 06:33 PM (#3650478)
You can't go wrong when you combine the ideas from great minds like Hutcheson and Russlan, right? Infante and Heyward for Parnell and Wright. We'll even throw in the Ollie Perez to sweeten the deal.
   15. The District Attorney Posted: September 28, 2010 at 06:52 PM (#3650495)
Infante and Heyward for Parnell and Wright.
*checks Sam for pods at the base of the spine*

I mean, I'd surely consider it, but I'm surprised you would :-)
   16. Dale Sams Posted: September 28, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3650500)
*checks Sam for pods at the base of the spine*


Get a room you two.

(Heh...'Sam'..)

*Checks the garden for slug-like creatures growing there*
   17. Sam M. Posted: September 28, 2010 at 07:18 PM (#3650513)
I mean, I'd surely consider it, but I'm surprised you would :-)

It's a cold business, my friend. Heyward is cost-controlled for half the coming decade. Wright isn't. You make that deal, and all of a sudden you free up enough payroll room to improve the rotation or second base. Nothing makes my heart beat faster than cheap, but awesome, talent. Wright will still look like he looks in some other laundry. Even Braves' unis.

I can say this so easily, of course, because it's never going to happen.
   18. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 07:46 PM (#3650539)
You make that deal every day and twice on Sunday. And I say this as an avid Blue Sox fan.
   19. TugMcGraw Posted: September 28, 2010 at 08:58 PM (#3650606)
not on your life. Good talent that plays a corner OF doesn't compare to lights out 3b play. And we have to chip in a pretty fair pitcher to get Heyward? Yahhh, I don't think so.

You can find 850 OPS in the OF across the board. But a 900 3b? Rare, rare talent.
   20. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 09:28 PM (#3650638)
Eh, if we're having this conversation 2 years ago I agree with you, but I think we might be talking about a 950 OPS OF and an 850 OPS 3B ... add in their respective contracts, and I don't think too much before doing this deal. I doubt the Braves would go for it.
   21. formerly dp Posted: September 28, 2010 at 09:32 PM (#3650644)
You can find 850 OPS in the OF across the board. But a 900 3b? Rare, rare talent.

I agree with this by and large, and it raises an interesting question- most discussions of dealing Wright don't deal with who his replacement would be. The Mets have both Flores and Marte coming through the system, but like many Met prospects, their numbers only look good considering their ages (Marte at 19 hit .264/.333/.401 at Savannah; Flores at the same age hit .289/.333/.424 between Savannah and St. Lucie). So it's very likely that the replacement is in the system, but they both have a long way to go before they look like anything but a huge step down from Wright. Murphy is on-hand, but hasn't played regularly at 3B in years and is coming back from a traumatic knee injury.

Edit: the Mets have had a really hard time finding .850 OPS OFs who can stay healthy. And they still cost money when you find them. The Mets were paying Francouer $5 million to be a .662 OPS OF this year. (BTW, does anyone else hate to see Frenchy doing well in Hamilton's absence? .385/.405/.564/.969- enough to convince the Royals to give him a huge contract)
   22. Sam M. Posted: September 28, 2010 at 10:13 PM (#3650676)
I agree with this by and large, and it raises an interesting question- most discussions of dealing Wright don't deal with who his replacement would be.

If you have to, sign Adrian Beltre. Then you have Beltre and Heyward for basically what Wright would cost you.

Actually, the Mets got great play from a sleeper prospect this year, Zach Lutz, who did a great job at both Binghamton and in a brief stint at Buffalo. Overall this year (a handful of ABs at St. Lucie and the GCL), Lutz hit .287/.380/.571, with 19 HRs. He might just be a reasonable stopgap until Flores, Marte, or Aderlin Rodriguez (just rated by BA the # 9 prospect in the Appalachian League) is ready.

But look. The Braves are NOT trading a cost-controlled stud like Heyward for anyone short of another one just like him. And there's no realistic trade for David Wright I'd make, where the Mets would either presumably get a haul of solid, but lesser, players to fill several holes or make a challenge trade for a similarly costly, similarly high-profile player. So since the only trade I would make is one another team would be insane to make, I'll just root for DW to stay right where he is, and keep building his resume as the greatest Mets' player of all-time.
   23. formerly dp Posted: September 28, 2010 at 10:38 PM (#3650693)
The Braves are NOT trading a cost-controlled stud like Heyward for anyone short of another one just like him.

I think that's a given in the discussion. Even beyond the pure rationality of the deal, there's no way I'd want to see Wright demolishing Met pitchers at New Shea, year in and year out, in close races. I'm sure the Braves would feel the same way about Heyward.
   24. Sam M. Posted: September 29, 2010 at 02:52 AM (#3650855)
On another Mets-related matter, I've disagreed with some around here on the relative merits of Cory Vaughn, the Mets' 4th round pick out of San Diego State this year who did very well at Brooklyn in the NYP League (led the league in SLG and OPS (.557, .953), and was 2nd in HR and RBI (14 and 56) in 264 ABs. Some argued results in the NYP League are pretty meaningless; others that he's too old for his performance there to mean that much.

Well, BA today ranked him the 3rd best prospect in the league. Of their top 20 prospects in the league, 7 were the same age as Vaughn (21). I guess they don't think 21 is too old for that league, or that his performance is meaningless in stamping him as a genuine prospect. As to whether results or prospect status in the NY-P League are meaningless, it is worth noting that 15 of the 20 players who were in the Top 20 five years ago have made it to the majors, including Wade Davis, Clay Buchholz, Gaby Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Bobby Parnell.

Lots can happen to Vaughn, and he has many tests still to pass, but I stand by and restate my position: he's one of the best prospects in the Mets' system. He's got tools plus performance. Works for me.
   25. formerly dp Posted: September 29, 2010 at 06:53 PM (#3651379)
Some argued results in the NYP League are pretty meaningless; others that he's too old for his performance there to mean that much.

I'll stand by that claim. The Mets, I think, are unusual in that they've been sending real prospects to the Penn League, in part because they've a different relationship with the Cyclones than other clubs do with their NYPL teams. Most other teams aren't putting talents prospects in the NYPL.

I guess they don't think 21 is too old for that league, or that his performance is meaningless in stamping him as a genuine prospect.

They rate the prospects in the league. Saying he's one of the best prospects in the league says more about the prospects in the league than it does count as a ringing endorsement.

Lots can happen to Vaughn, and he has many tests still to pass, but I stand by and restate my position: he's one of the best prospects in the Mets' system.

I'd wait to see what he does beyond the Penn League before getting too excited. I know you like numbers, I like numbers too, but some numbers just aren't worth putting too much stock in. A half season at the NYPL falls into that category. Would you rate him as a better prospect than Marte and Flores because he has put up better numbers? Now that the original has fallen from grace, Vaughn is your new Daniel Murphy...and we know how that turned out...

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