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1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:24 AM (#3650023)With a good GM they have a chance to start turning things around in 2012. Niese and Pelfrey will still be affordable. There might be as many as four position players putting up decent numbers for the minimum. On the other hand, Santana and Bay will be getting around $40m probably without providing much, and the Wilpons will be doing the hiring. There's no reason to be more than very guardedly optimistic, but it would be nice to see a real hire for a change.
There's reason to watch though, at least in the first half, as the potential exists for better -- say, real rebound years for Beltran and Bay, finally great years from Wright and Reyes, big step forward for Ike ... I'm not predicting it, but there's reasons to tune in.
Absolutely. I'd rather Mejia was having late-season success than Gee, but between the two of them they could make the #4-5 slots interesting (Mejia hopefully gets 1/2 season at AAA). And there always reason to watch Dickey- who doesn't like watching knuckleballers?
I fully expect the Mets to hire Backman, if only to please the tabloid back pages.
Pelfrey and Niese have both been up and down, and are still developing. They might put it together, or not. Pelfrey looked like a #1 for long stretches this year, but just couldn't avoid stringing bad starts together. There's room for growth, and as you said, a reason to watch the team with enthusiasm. Gee was pretty bad at Buffalo, but he did have a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and is at the same rate for his career, so there's some reason for optimism.
Beltran's overall numbers are starting to look decent. In terms of OB%, the Mets should be much better next year given a healthy Bay, Beltran- other than 2B, there hsouldn't really be any huge OB% sinks the way there was last year. A .350 OB% from your catcher is huge...
I'm hopeful that Gee's late season success will allow Mejia to get that half season in AAA. But with Santana's injury, I doubt he'll get that development time.
I think a lot depends on the FO's attitude toward next year- if they see it as a rebuilding year, Mejia starts in AAA and some AAAA filler rounds out the rotation. If they're trying to contend, Mejia's in the rotation. Putting him in the bullpen to start the season was a huge mistake, especially given the way he was used. And I think the Mets realize that now.
Omar has been really good at over-fixing the problems from the previous season. If he does that this offseason, that means fixing 2B, provided he has the resources. There are always talented former prospects floating around, the Mets need to snag two of them and let them fight it out.
I don't know how much money the Mets are going to spend but if they have the money, a quality starter and secondbaseman should be the goal of the offseason.
I'll send you Omar Infante for David Wright.
I mean, I'd surely consider it, but I'm surprised you would :-)
Get a room you two.
(Heh...'Sam'..)
*Checks the garden for slug-like creatures growing there*
It's a cold business, my friend. Heyward is cost-controlled for half the coming decade. Wright isn't. You make that deal, and all of a sudden you free up enough payroll room to improve the rotation or second base. Nothing makes my heart beat faster than cheap, but awesome, talent. Wright will still look like he looks in some other laundry. Even Braves' unis.
I can say this so easily, of course, because it's never going to happen.
You can find 850 OPS in the OF across the board. But a 900 3b? Rare, rare talent.
I agree with this by and large, and it raises an interesting question- most discussions of dealing Wright don't deal with who his replacement would be. The Mets have both Flores and Marte coming through the system, but like many Met prospects, their numbers only look good considering their ages (Marte at 19 hit .264/.333/.401 at Savannah; Flores at the same age hit .289/.333/.424 between Savannah and St. Lucie). So it's very likely that the replacement is in the system, but they both have a long way to go before they look like anything but a huge step down from Wright. Murphy is on-hand, but hasn't played regularly at 3B in years and is coming back from a traumatic knee injury.
Edit: the Mets have had a really hard time finding .850 OPS OFs who can stay healthy. And they still cost money when you find them. The Mets were paying Francouer $5 million to be a .662 OPS OF this year. (BTW, does anyone else hate to see Frenchy doing well in Hamilton's absence? .385/.405/.564/.969- enough to convince the Royals to give him a huge contract)
If you have to, sign Adrian Beltre. Then you have Beltre and Heyward for basically what Wright would cost you.
Actually, the Mets got great play from a sleeper prospect this year, Zach Lutz, who did a great job at both Binghamton and in a brief stint at Buffalo. Overall this year (a handful of ABs at St. Lucie and the GCL), Lutz hit .287/.380/.571, with 19 HRs. He might just be a reasonable stopgap until Flores, Marte, or Aderlin Rodriguez (just rated by BA the # 9 prospect in the Appalachian League) is ready.
But look. The Braves are NOT trading a cost-controlled stud like Heyward for anyone short of another one just like him. And there's no realistic trade for David Wright I'd make, where the Mets would either presumably get a haul of solid, but lesser, players to fill several holes or make a challenge trade for a similarly costly, similarly high-profile player. So since the only trade I would make is one another team would be insane to make, I'll just root for DW to stay right where he is, and keep building his resume as the greatest Mets' player of all-time.
I think that's a given in the discussion. Even beyond the pure rationality of the deal, there's no way I'd want to see Wright demolishing Met pitchers at New Shea, year in and year out, in close races. I'm sure the Braves would feel the same way about Heyward.
Well, BA today ranked him the 3rd best prospect in the league. Of their top 20 prospects in the league, 7 were the same age as Vaughn (21). I guess they don't think 21 is too old for that league, or that his performance is meaningless in stamping him as a genuine prospect. As to whether results or prospect status in the NY-P League are meaningless, it is worth noting that 15 of the 20 players who were in the Top 20 five years ago have made it to the majors, including Wade Davis, Clay Buchholz, Gaby Sanchez, Chris Volstad, Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Bobby Parnell.
Lots can happen to Vaughn, and he has many tests still to pass, but I stand by and restate my position: he's one of the best prospects in the Mets' system. He's got tools plus performance. Works for me.
I'll stand by that claim. The Mets, I think, are unusual in that they've been sending real prospects to the Penn League, in part because they've a different relationship with the Cyclones than other clubs do with their NYPL teams. Most other teams aren't putting talents prospects in the NYPL.
I guess they don't think 21 is too old for that league, or that his performance is meaningless in stamping him as a genuine prospect.
They rate the prospects in the league. Saying he's one of the best prospects in the league says more about the prospects in the league than it does count as a ringing endorsement.
Lots can happen to Vaughn, and he has many tests still to pass, but I stand by and restate my position: he's one of the best prospects in the Mets' system.
I'd wait to see what he does beyond the Penn League before getting too excited. I know you like numbers, I like numbers too, but some numbers just aren't worth putting too much stock in. A half season at the NYPL falls into that category. Would you rate him as a better prospect than Marte and Flores because he has put up better numbers? Now that the original has fallen from grace, Vaughn is your new Daniel Murphy...and we know how that turned out...
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