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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

WFAN: Murti: What Will Jeter Get?

There were 13 agents, 13 current or former executives
And only one man in town.

So with all this in mind, I decided to poll some experts to find out what they thought Derek Jeter would end up signing for. I asked 26 people around baseball (13 agents and 13 current or former executives) for their predictions. For obvious reasons, none of the executives were from the Yankees and none of the agents was Jeter’s rep Casey Close. The results were as interesting as I hoped they would be.

Of the 26 guesses, I tossed out the highest and the lowest. The highest was a $150 million dollar lifetime package, and the lowest was 2 years at $10 million per year. Both those guesses came from team executives. Of the remaining 24 figures, the average terms were 2.9 years at $17.1 million per year. The 13 agents averaged out at 3 yrs, $17.6 million, while 11 executives averaged out at 2.7 years, $16.5 million. Many of these people added possibilities for deferred income, a personal services deal after his playing days, and a 3000-hit marketing/bonus clause.

The year Jeter is coming off in 2010 is the main reason why this exercise is so intriguing. Of the 24 guesses used in the figures above, the AAV (average annual value) ranged as low as $10 million and as high as $23 million. If I polled the same people about Cliff Lee, I doubt I would get as big a disparity in the AAV. And while the agents’ AAV averaged slightly higher than the executives’ guesses, the $23 million guess came from a team exec, acknowledging the deep connection and the deep pockets that play into this equation.

Repoz Posted: October 27, 2010 at 10:10 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. ursus arctos Posted: October 27, 2010 at 10:48 AM (#3676612)

Am I the only one who thinks that the best deal for all parties would be for the Yankees to offer Jeter a small piece of equity in the team?

2. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 27, 2010 at 10:51 AM (#3676613)

Murti: What Will Jeter Get?

Laid?

3. bayside627 Posted: October 27, 2010 at 11:37 AM (#3676622)

Jeter is going to point at A-rods contract and ask for 5 years. He will not be happy if Alex has 7 yrs left and they offer him 3 or 4. I don't think he will want as much money as A-rod but the years will be an issue. The Yankees can offer him a life time service contract with a 3000 hit bonus. Jeter had a bad year this year and is getting older but he will work hard this off season and come back with a vengeance.

4. Jacob Posted: October 27, 2010 at 12:12 PM (#3676627)

If he's lucky, 3-year/$40 million with some extra perks.

5. Hardy Posted: October 27, 2010 at 12:47 PM (#3676644)

Jeter had a bad year this year and is getting older but he will work hard this off season and come back with a vengeance.

Then he should ask for a 1/10 contract, post numbers like 2009 and sign a new 4/80 contract a year from now.

6. cmack7 Posted: October 27, 2010 at 12:58 PM (#3676648)

Jeter had a bad year this year and is getting older but he will work hard this off season and come back with a vengeance.

Hard work helps, but it only goes so far when you're a 36 year old shortstop. I'm sure Jeter put in some quality work last offseason...

This year he was clearly a step slower in the field and with his bat. Hard to fully recover those skills at his age, no matter how much time you spend blasting your quads.

7. The Lovesong of J. Alfredo Griffin Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:26 PM (#3676664)

Jeter had a bad year this year and is getting older but he will work hard this off season and come back with a vengeance.

Right, because clearly this year Jeter didn't want to hit well. Much like Ichiro!, he can hit if he wants to.

8. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:30 PM (#3676669)

Jeter's bat looked so slow this year. I reckon he'll be better next year than this, but I can't imagine he'll be all that great.

9. Ron Johnson Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:43 PM (#3676684)

#1 I'm about 99% confident that they can't offer equity to an active player -- and that the rule dates back to Rogers Hornsby.

10. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:44 PM (#3676685)

Much like Ichiro!, he can hit if he wants to.

The question is, hit what?

11. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:46 PM (#3676686)

The question is, hit what?

If Jeter had fallen off any faster, he would have hit terminal velocity.

12. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:48 PM (#3676689)

Jeter had a bad year this year and is getting older but he will work hard this off season and come back with a vengeance.

I believe you're confusing him with Bruce Willis...

13. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:50 PM (#3676693)

#1 I'm about 99% confident that they can't offer equity to an active player -- and that the rule dates back to Rogers Hornsby.

This is true. I would be pretty surprised if Jeter doesn't end up with a bonus deal (like A-Rod's) for 3000 hits, and maybe for some other stuff. (He's got a decent chance at ending up in the Top 5 all-time for both hits and runs, which is impressive.)

14. cmack7 Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:55 PM (#3676702)

Jeter's bat looked so slow this year. I reckon he'll be better next year than this, but I can't imagine he'll be all that great.

Jeter really is an unusually cagey hitter-so I think even a marginal improvement in his bat speed will get his OPS+ back up over 100.

But from what I saw, if you could throw above average heat slightly up in the zone, Jeter was toast this year.

15. ColonelTom Posted: October 27, 2010 at 01:59 PM (#3676707)

If he's lucky, 3-year/$40 million with some extra perks.

That sounds about right.

16. Jacob Posted: October 27, 2010 at 02:20 PM (#3676740)

Yankees are lucky that Jeter's contract didn't end a year earlier. Or, ouch...

17. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 27, 2010 at 02:24 PM (#3676746)

If he's lucky, 3-year/$40 million with some extra perks.

That sounds about right.

In a vacuum, maybe. However, it's (1) Jeter and (2) the Yankees - rationality won't be key.

He'll get 3 or 4 years, and average $17-20M.

18. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 27, 2010 at 02:26 PM (#3676747)

I'd like to see Cashman play hardball with Jeter. Of course, I've never loved Jeter. I deeply respect what he's done as a player, but I find him extremely uncompelling as a personality.

19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 02:33 PM (#3676751)

#1 I'm about 99% confident that they can't offer equity to an active player -- and that the rule dates back to Rogers Hornsby.

I think that's right, but is there anything prohibiting them from deferring that equity and putting it in a trust or something until he retires?

My prediction: 2 years $26 million with a vesting option for a 3rd year.

20. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 02:52 PM (#3676770)

I deeply respect what he's done as a player, but I find him extremely uncompelling as a personality.

So long as that doesn't deter you from buying the products he endorses, I'm pretty sure that's Jeter's ideal reaction for a fan to have.

Well, except for the cute female ones, I suppose.

21. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 27, 2010 at 02:58 PM (#3676775)

So long as that doesn't deter you from buying the products he endorses, I'm pretty sure that's Jeter's ideal reaction for a fan to have.

What products does he endorse? Ford automobiles and Nike athletic gear? I have none of either.

22. His Clutchness, The Just Pasha Diving Jeter Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3676792)

Have you visited my website lately? You should really check it out.

23. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3676801)

Gillette, I think? He used to be in a MasterCard commercial, too, but pretty sure that's off the air.

24. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:21 PM (#3676804)

Have you visited my website lately? You should really check it out.

We need to invent a font that can represent just how insincere and unenthusiastic Jetes sounds when he says that.

25. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3676832)

According to somwthing called Millionaire.com, Jeter's endorsement deals have included Nike, Gatorade, Visa, Skippy Peanut butter, Oreo Cookies, Ritz Crackers, Fleet Bank, Fila, and Fleer trading cards. I know he does Gillette and Ford commercials too and there are at least two Derek Jeter Fitness Centers in Manhattan.

Wow, I make use of almost none of those products. I didn't realize how ineffective Jeter is as a pitchman.

26. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:04 PM (#3676836)

Wow, I make use of almost none of those products. I didn't realize how ineffective Jeter is as a pitchman.

Naw, you're just a shitty consumer.

27. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:14 PM (#3676845)

Naw, you're just a shitty consumer.

This is also a good point. I haven't bought a new pair of shoes in three years.

28. The District Attorney Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:17 PM (#3676848)

Jeter's endorsement deals have included... Oreo Cookies

I'm offended.

29. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3676851)

Having been in one of the Derek Jeter 24-Hour Fitness locations, I can verify they seem pretty nice as gyms go. But having priced checked it as well--mostly for curiosity's sake--I can verify they aren't that nice.

30. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:21 PM (#3676852)

I'm offended.

It took me a second, but I see wot you did there!

31. cmack7 Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:56 PM (#3676888)

Having been in one of the Derek Jeter 24-Hour Fitness locations, I can verify they seem pretty nice as gyms go. But having priced checked it as well--mostly for curiosity's sake--I can verify they aren't that nice.

I need faster results. Are there any Barry Bonds 24-Hour Fitness Centres in the Bay Area?

32. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:03 PM (#3676892)

Are there any Barry Bonds 24-Hour Fitness Centres in the Bay Area?

No, but Greg Anderson has a lot of free time these days and there's probably a set of weights where he is.

33. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:32 PM (#3676927)

I thought performance bonuses for things like 3000 hits were restricted after Rodriguez's contract. Bonuses had to be for playing time statistics and not for specific on-field performance.

[EDIT] I see that the bonuses are "marketing agreements."[/EDIT]

34. bond1 Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:30 AM (#3677873)

The Yanks didn't think twice about dumping Tino, Bernie, Hideki and Johnny D. Bernie was as much of an institution as Jete but was clearly declining. Tino, Hideki and Johhny D were all coming off great seasons.

How many more years can Jete possibly play shortstop? Jeter has recently looked a lot like Bernie did in 2005, with an obvious drop off in performance. Its time to dump Jeter, besides who else is going to offer Jeter more than 3 yrs/30 mil?

I'll take Juan Uribe or Miggy Tejada over Jeter for half the price any day.

35. Ron J Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:51 AM (#3677877)

#7 There's a long list of truly great players who had a bounce back season late in their career. In his first article on aging Bill James wrote a fair amount on how players successfully adapt as they age. (Basic concept: they simplify -- retreating to their core talents)

If this poor year is age related rather than just normal performance variation it's possible he can adjust. And if I had to guess how, I think the Toby Harrah walking machine is reasonable.

36. Jacob Posted: October 28, 2010 at 01:08 PM (#3677928)

According to somwthing called Millionaire.com, Jeter's endorsement deals have included Nike, Gatorade, Visa, Skippy Peanut butter, Oreo Cookies, Ritz Crackers, Fleet Bank, Fila, and Fleer trading cards. I know he does Gillette and Ford commercials too and there are at least two Derek Jeter Fitness Centers in Manhattan.

He was on a Wheaties box too.

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WFAN: Murti: What Will Jeter Get?

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