Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, March 16, 2017

What does Statcast’s catch probability tell us about Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner? - River Avenue Blues

So, while Ellsbury’s 1-for-28 effort on Five Star Outs in 2016 may not accurately reflect his true defensive ability given the limited amount of data, it did happen, and it did cost the Yankees runs. My eyes told me both Gardner and Ellsbury were still above-average defenders last season, Gardner moreso. Neither was as good as we’ve seen them in the past, I don’t think, and that makes sense given their ages. The various defensive stats say the opposite is true, that they were better than they’d been in previous years. I was hoping catching probability would clear that up for us, but alas. It’s just more information to consider, not a definitive answer.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 16, 2017 at 11:21 PM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brett gardner, jacoby ellsbury, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Captain Supporter Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:11 AM (#5419214)
Any "advanced" metrics that says Brett Gardner cost the Yankees 40 runs in the field over a three year period (but gained them 12 runs in 2016), or that Jacoby Ellsbury was worth +26 runs in 2016 are metrics that I would not even bother looking at further. In any case, the vastly different results of these different metrics over a 4 year period (i.e., a decent sample size) is just another example of the still primitive state of defensive metrics. People keep laughing at those who prefer the eye test, but results like these make that hard to defend.

I'm quite certain that Brett Gardner is a good to excellent left fielder and that Jacoby Ellsbury is somewhere slightly above or below an average center fielder. While I am open to high quality statistical analysis that might change my mind, this article only acts to confirm my current thoughts that none of the metrics can be trusted. It is true that, as opposed to FRAA and Total Zone, UZR and DRS at least do not provide results that are clearly absurd on their face, but even with those two metrics the year to year fluctuations don't make a lot of sense (e.g., according to DRS, Gardner and Ellsbury both had their best years at age 33 in 2016) 'Information to consider'? Yes, and then reject.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Renegade (((JE)))
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogCubs Fire Bosio
(8 - 11:48pm, Oct 22)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT - 2017 NFL thread
(151 - 11:38pm, Oct 22)
Last: Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb

NewsblogAngell: Bringing the Yankees Home?
(16 - 11:21pm, Oct 22)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogOTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true
(1940 - 11:01pm, Oct 22)
Last: Tom T

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(461 - 10:32pm, Oct 22)
Last: Gold Star - just Gold Star

NewsblogAstros beat Yankees to force Game 7 in ALCS | MLB.com
(22 - 9:44pm, Oct 22)
Last: Nero Wolfe, Indeed

NewsblogPetriello: Bregman's split-second call preserves shutout
(17 - 9:18pm, Oct 22)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

NewsblogDeadspin: Please Enjoy(?) 21 Years Of Joe Buck Hyping Forgotten Fox Shows
(21 - 9:12pm, Oct 22)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogAstros' Justin Verlander named ALCS MVP after two dominant starts vs. Yankees
(43 - 9:07pm, Oct 22)
Last: Buck Coats

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(37 - 5:41pm, Oct 22)
Last: Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB)

Sox TherapyQuestioning the Winter
(19 - 4:59pm, Oct 22)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

NewsblogALCS Game 6 OMNICHATTER, for October 20, 2017
(155 - 4:41pm, Oct 22)
Last: Wahoo Sam

NewsblogDusty Baker Will Not Be Back as Manager
(85 - 2:29pm, Oct 22)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogOT - October 2017 College Football thread
(88 - 2:13pm, Oct 22)
Last: don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-20-2017
(21 - 1:55pm, Oct 22)
Last: esseff

Page rendered in 0.2125 seconds
47 querie(s) executed