Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, March 16, 2017

What does Statcast’s catch probability tell us about Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner? - River Avenue Blues

So, while Ellsbury’s 1-for-28 effort on Five Star Outs in 2016 may not accurately reflect his true defensive ability given the limited amount of data, it did happen, and it did cost the Yankees runs. My eyes told me both Gardner and Ellsbury were still above-average defenders last season, Gardner moreso. Neither was as good as we’ve seen them in the past, I don’t think, and that makes sense given their ages. The various defensive stats say the opposite is true, that they were better than they’d been in previous years. I was hoping catching probability would clear that up for us, but alas. It’s just more information to consider, not a definitive answer.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 16, 2017 at 11:21 PM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brett gardner, jacoby ellsbury, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Captain Supporter Posted: March 18, 2017 at 10:11 AM (#5419214)
Any "advanced" metrics that says Brett Gardner cost the Yankees 40 runs in the field over a three year period (but gained them 12 runs in 2016), or that Jacoby Ellsbury was worth +26 runs in 2016 are metrics that I would not even bother looking at further. In any case, the vastly different results of these different metrics over a 4 year period (i.e., a decent sample size) is just another example of the still primitive state of defensive metrics. People keep laughing at those who prefer the eye test, but results like these make that hard to defend.

I'm quite certain that Brett Gardner is a good to excellent left fielder and that Jacoby Ellsbury is somewhere slightly above or below an average center fielder. While I am open to high quality statistical analysis that might change my mind, this article only acts to confirm my current thoughts that none of the metrics can be trusted. It is true that, as opposed to FRAA and Total Zone, UZR and DRS at least do not provide results that are clearly absurd on their face, but even with those two metrics the year to year fluctuations don't make a lot of sense (e.g., according to DRS, Gardner and Ellsbury both had their best years at age 33 in 2016) 'Information to consider'? Yes, and then reject.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JPWF13
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 27 March 2017: Trump, Healthcare, and the Art of the Botched Deal
(189 - 6:32pm, Mar 27)
Last: madvillain

NewsblogTHE B/R Q&A: ROB MANFRED WANTS MLB TO 'OWN THE NEXT GENERATION' OF SPORTS FANS
(6 - 6:16pm, Mar 27)
Last: PASTE does not get put on waivers in August

NewsblogTwins' attempt to chart fatigue raises concerns with players union
(18 - 6:12pm, Mar 27)
Last: PASTE does not get put on waivers in August

NewsblogBraves urge fans to plan as traffic test looms with exhibition game
(6 - 5:56pm, Mar 27)
Last: SBB, Live from the Alt-Center

NewsblogWong would rather be traded than platoon at second base
(10 - 5:37pm, Mar 27)
Last: RMc's Yelling Mob of Hackmen

NewsblogOakland A's 'understand' Raiders need to move, remind us they need a new stadium
(2 - 5:32pm, Mar 27)
Last: Khrushin it bro

NewsblogTiebreaker, intentional walk rules added to minor league games
(27 - 5:30pm, Mar 27)
Last: RMc's Yelling Mob of Hackmen

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(887 - 5:29pm, Mar 27)
Last: . . . . . . . . . .

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 3-27-2017
(20 - 5:23pm, Mar 27)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogRaul Mondesi wins starting second base job for the Royals
(34 - 5:11pm, Mar 27)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogWill teams blow White Sox away for Jose Quintana?
(4 - 5:00pm, Mar 27)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogCleveland Indians 2017 opening day roster projections: Paul Hoynes | cleveland.com
(10 - 4:15pm, Mar 27)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogSandy Alderson on Steven Matz’s latest injury: ‘It’s worrisome’ | Newsday
(16 - 3:29pm, Mar 27)
Last: SBB, Live from the Alt-Center

NewsblogOT: March-April 2017 Soccer Thread
(172 - 2:39pm, Mar 27)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2002 Ballot
(1 - 2:18pm, Mar 27)
Last: DL from MN

Page rendered in 0.2317 seconds
47 querie(s) executed