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Thursday, October 26, 2017

What made Joe Girardi a success cost him his job | New York Post

Every manager has a shelf life.

This Yankees team is ready to contend for titles the next few years, and the front office wants to emulate what the World Series teams have with Houston’s A.J. Hinch and Los Angeles’ Dave Roberts. Not just smart and energetic and in control of strategy — but having a personality that bonds all the various elements of an organization as one.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 26, 2017 at 05:15 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: joe girardi, managers, yankees

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 26, 2017 at 08:35 PM (#5563264)
The number of managers & potential managers that are worse than Girardi is orders of magnitude larger than those that are better.

This is potentially a large, unforced error. The upside is minimal. Even if you strike gold with a HoF manager, what's he worth over Girardi, 1 or 2 wins? While a bad manger is probably 5+ wins worse. And the former is a 1 in 100 shot, while the latter is probably 1 in 2.
   2. TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky" Posted: October 26, 2017 at 09:24 PM (#5563282)
Agreed, snapper. But I'm historically soft on these things. I'm sure that Girardi's bosses know more about his employment situation and relationship with the players than I do. So my attitude is always "wait and see".

I really wonder if the Sox doing the dirty dance with Cora but not being able to announce him means:

If the Sox wanted Girardi badly, could they get him?

If the Yankees wanted Cora badly, is it possible they could get him?
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 26, 2017 at 10:02 PM (#5563288)
I'm sure that Girardi's bosses know more about his employment situation and relationship with the players than I do. So my attitude is always "wait and see".

But sometimes the people closest to the situation focus on the bad and forget the good. I know I have that tendency with people that work for me. Especially if they're really good. You've got 90% of what you want, but the last 10% frustrates you.
   4. TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky" Posted: October 26, 2017 at 10:07 PM (#5563289)
It's absolutely not a blind "they're smarter than me", but I think it's entirely within the rhealm of possibility that there is something that makes Girardi's continued employment by the Yankees impossible.

The man was fired by the Marlins after a Manager of the Year campaign, and if he doesn't win the award in 2017, he'll get votes. There's something else.
   5. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 26, 2017 at 10:11 PM (#5563291)
The man was fired by the Marlins after a Manager of the Year campaign, and if he doesn't win the award in 2017, he'll get votes. There's something else.


Beautiful, masculine forearms?
   6. TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky" Posted: October 26, 2017 at 10:19 PM (#5563294)
Showalter is a lame duck with the O's.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 26, 2017 at 10:29 PM (#5563296)
The man was fired by the Marlins after a Manager of the Year campaign, and if he doesn't win the award in 2017, he'll get votes. There's something else.

Pretty hard to hold the Marlins firing against Girardi. Wasn't that all about Loria being an idiot, even getting on the umpires from the owner's box?
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: October 26, 2017 at 11:08 PM (#5563305)
The man was fired by the Marlins after a Manager of the Year campaign, and if he doesn't win the award in 2017, he'll get votes. There's something else.

think of that guy you have worked with who is good at his job but not a clear game-changer. years go by, and his joylessness sucks the life out of you. maybe you shouldn't replace him - but you do if you can, eventually.

and if you've never worked with that guy.... you may BE that guy!
:)
   9. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2017 at 11:21 PM (#5563307)
Some nerd in analytics created a pivot table and discovered that managers under 6' tall but over age 52 bomb. The Yanks were living on borrowed time already.

Judge as player-manager.

Alternatively, Manfred has said he would consider allowing Jeter to manage the Yanks while running the Marlins.
   10. Leroy Kincaid Posted: October 27, 2017 at 06:31 AM (#5563344)
Showalter is a lame duck with the O's.


I don't think they'd bring him back after that cotton uniforms debacle.
   11. KronicFatigue Posted: October 27, 2017 at 07:00 AM (#5563346)
The number of managers & potential managers that are worse than Girardi is orders of magnitude larger than those that are better.


That's true of almost everyone in baseball, considering the talent is pyramid shaped. Finding that HOF manager who can add +2 wins per year for 10 years is going to be more valuable than a single -5 year (where the Yankees then correct their mistake and find a 3rd guy). Especially if you trust Cashman's talent in finding the next manager.

   12. PreservedFish Posted: October 27, 2017 at 07:43 AM (#5563347)
That's true of almost everyone in baseball, considering the talent is pyramid shaped. Finding that HOF manager who can add +2 wins per year for 10 years is going to be more valuable than a single -5 year (where the Yankees then correct their mistake and find a 3rd guy). Especially if you trust Cashman's talent in finding the next manager.


This is a poor analysis. If they hire a dud, it's not like they're going to know it right away and fire him and replace. With rare exceptions (such as Valentine's flamboyantly bad year in Boston), managers get 2-3 years to prove themselves. Further, if Cashman has just hired someone that terrible, why trust his talent in the slightest to get the next guy right? Further, the Yankees right now are in that space where wins are extraordinarily valuable and losses extraordinarily costly - the cusp of the playoffs. A true -5 year is potentially disastrous.

Beyond all that, I think Girardi has as good a claim as being a +2 manager as anyone else. The guy's teams overachieve constantly. He just took a "retooling" team to the brink of the World Series.
   13. Blastin Posted: October 27, 2017 at 08:41 AM (#5563367)
This is potentially a large, unforced error. The upside is minimal. Even if you strike gold with a HoF manager, what's he worth over Girardi, 1 or 2 wins? While a bad manger is probably 5+ wins worse. And the former is a 1 in 100 shot, while the latter is probably 1 in 2.



I don't disagree, but also you made up these stats.

I think it's a possible mistake. But I also think the team will be better next year depending on front office moves (sure, Judge may not do that again, or Severino, but Bird should actually play, we are unlikely to have a DH who randomly gets sick in the middle of the year, and whether it's Tanaka or someone else, they'll likely be better than 1 WAR, plus a full year of Gray, etc, and no Tyler Clippard games). I'm not saying we'll be better than our pythag was this past year but better than our actual record was.

Managers who are true disasters are rare. But easily remembered.

It could be a mistake. But we'll see who it is.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 27, 2017 at 08:53 AM (#5563369)
I don't disagree, but also you made up these stats.

The specific numbers, yes, but the relative magnitude is based on what I remember from reading research on managers.
   15. Blastin Posted: October 27, 2017 at 09:19 AM (#5563381)
Yeah. Though maybe they really think they have someone amazing in hand already.
   16. Blastin Posted: October 27, 2017 at 09:24 AM (#5563383)
With that said, communication is a huge deal, and it seems like he wasn't great at it. See here
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: October 27, 2017 at 09:54 AM (#5563401)
With that said, communication is a huge deal, and it seems like he wasn't great at it. See here
Red Sox ownership smearing another guy on his way out of town. Apparently they control the New Jersey media too...
   18. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 27, 2017 at 09:56 AM (#5563402)
Boy, the definition of "smear" really seems to have been expanded. I'd hope for something a little more salacious.
   19. The Good Face Posted: October 27, 2017 at 10:19 AM (#5563427)
With that said, communication is a huge deal, and it seems like he wasn't great at it. See here


Maybe, but it seems like the Yankees are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good here. By pretty much all the criteria used to measure MLB managers, Girardi was really good. He did a fine job of developing young players; lots of prospects became stars or valuable everyday players under his watch. He never had a losing season, despite going into several where everybody was convinced the team was lousy. His players respected him, at least in public. With the notable exception of A-Rod, his teams avoided drama and clubhouse shenanigans.

Who knows, maybe there's somebody better out there and maybe the Yankees will hire that somebody. But we know there are lots of managers that are worse.
   20. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: October 27, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5563613)
Showalter is a lame duck with the O's.

As long as Angelos is there, he's safe. Even when Duquette leaves after next season, the new GM will be forced to keep Showalter as Duquette did.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 27, 2017 at 01:52 PM (#5563650)
Showalter is a lame duck with the O's.

As a Yankee fan, I'd take Showalter back in a heartbeat. His teams win. Nothing he's done in Baltimore suggests he's not a very good manager.

Personally, I think if the Yankees had stuck with him in 1996, they'd have just as many Championships today.

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