A good sign is that Wood appears to be improving in pitch recognition. He's still wiffing, but at least he looks like he recognizes what he's trying to hit in the games I've seen. Last year, he looked completely helpless at the plate.

Yeah, these days he's only whiffing in, what, one-quarter of his minor league at-bats. People keep bringing up Troy Glaus but Glaus wasn't nearly this bad in his brief minor league career. It's still too early in his career to say anything with any real confidence, but he looks for all the world like Russell Branyan v2.0.

What about his glove? Is he going to be able to stick at short?

but he looks for all the world like Russell Branyan v2.0.

What about his glove? Is he going to be able to stick at short?

Russell Branyan v2.0 would be quite useful at SS.

Concur with Scareduck. Dallas McPherson was a better prospect. I'm not optimistic about Wood's future, but I'd at least like to see him get a chance to succeed, and sidestep McPherson's injuries.

Yeah, if the Angels have been very happy the last decade with Garret Anderson's 105 career OPS+ in left, they should be happy if they get Russ Branyan's 107 career OPS+ at short.

I've moved to a non-linear translation system that I spent all winter working on and without looking, I think Wood translates worse than his more traditional MLEs.

Disagree on McPherson. Wood is still only 23, when Dallas was 23 he was still in AA. McPherson was a 3B who you wonder if he would have to move to 1B or an OF corner, Wood is at best a shortstop and at worst a 3B. Wood is the much better prospect.

McPherson's killing the ball back in the PCL this year (298/405/638) but still wiffing over 40% of his at bats. Wood is not hitting quite as well there but not too bad (273/333/614) while striking out 32% of the time. Unlike McPherson though, he still has time to improve.

What about his glove? Is he going to be able to stick at short?

On another team, yes, but Erick Aybar seems to have won the position in Anaheim. Aybar's batting average is an empty one, and he's still clueless on the bases, but his defense has been tremendous so far. I don't think the zone ratings say so, but from watching the games he has a ton of range and a great arm, and hasn't made too many errors. At the current sample size I'll trust my eyes over a defensive metric.

On a healthy Angel team (there has been one in the last 48 years - 2002) Aybar and Kendrick have the middle infield, so Wood will have to hold off Matt Brown and Sean Rodriguez for 3B assuming they let Figgins go free agent or put him back in the outfield next year.

Speaking of Russ Branyan, he's in the PCL and has almost the exact stats as McPherson. Those two are twins. For Wood, batting righthanded and able to play SS make it hard for me to compare him to the others.

McPherson's killing the ball back in the PCL this year (298/405/638)

Given that his homepark is Albuquerque, that line isn't as impressive at first glance. 2 other regulars on the Isotopes: Brett Caroll, 418 .480 .896, John Baker of Moneyball fame, 400 .500 .554

I still think McPherson would have hit just fine if he was healthy for more than a week every 3 years. McPheron's the Chris Miller of baseball, a strong wind could cause a muscle tear.

Aybar's batting average is an empty one, and he's still clueless on the bases, but his defense has been tremendous so far. I don't think the zone ratings say so, but from watching the games he has a ton of range and a great arm, and hasn't made too many errors. At the current sample size I'll trust my eyes over a defensive metric.

He needs to clean up the easy ones, though. It's only my gut feeling, but I think there's a larger negative psychological impact to a pitcher and team when a guy botches a routine play than there is a positive impact when a guy makes a great play.

I was expecting Aybar to be error prone, but he's only made 4 errors so far. That's 21 per 1400 innings, not a bad rate at all and only one starting SS in the AL has fewer than 3 (our old buddy Cabrera with one).

His defensive numbers are starting to look good, he's 4th in RZR right now, though the sample is way too small. The 4 ahead of him are Jeter, Young, and Eckstein.

Overall I can't complain one bit about Aybar's defense so far. The decision to deal OC looks like a wise one. The decision to trade him for Jon Garland, not so much.

Actually, the numbers like Aybar as much as I do. Factoring in his 16 out of zone plays, Aybar is +5.9 runs above average by RZR published on Hardball Times. Better than Jeter, Young, and Eckstein, who haven't made as many OOZ plays. OC is close behind at +5.5 runs, Aybar leads the American league. Yuni Betencourt (-5.5) and Luis Hernandez (-5) are at the bottom.

Overall I can't complain one bit about Aybar's defense so far. The decision to deal OC looks like a wise one. The decision to trade him for Jon Garland, not so much.

But given what the Angels probably knew about Escobar's injury this offseason, I suspect it was still the right move. Moseley has shown himself inadequate to the challenge, and Adenhart is too far away. For the first time in a couple years, the Angels don't really have any starting rotation depth. Moseley has a 52 ERA+, but Garland is 81...

Brandon Wood's 2008 minor league stats. 33% whiff rate, vs. 27% last year, so I expect he'll get better once he returns to Salt Lake. I still think he's one of the most underwhelming prospects in baseball. Those homers got people's expectations high. The strikeouts are the thing they should be looking at.

I'd like Dan's take (or others who have studied the numbers) but in my general poking around, I haven't seen a general tendency for K-rates to change much between minors and majors. I'll grant you that seems to defy logic, I'd expect the ML K-rate to be higher.

He is 23 years, 2 months and 5 days old. There is still time.

His defensive numbers are starting to look good, he's 4th in RZR right now, though the sample is way too small. The 4 ahead of him are Jeter, Young, and Eckstein.

I'm not sure you want to be 4th in any fielding measure that has Jeter, Young and Eckstein as the top 3.

What is Brandon Wood's Optimistic-Pessimistic Projection? Jose Hernandez? Russ Davis?

(Optimistic-Pessimistic Projection is something I coined, right now. It is optimistic in the sense that it assumes the prospect will become a major league regular, pessmistic in the sense that it assumes he will certainly not fulfill his potential. It can be abbreviated as OPP. If you're, uh, down with that.)

What is Brandon Wood's Optimistic-Pessimistic Projection? Jose Hernandez? Russ Davis?

Jose Hernandez never hit 50+ HR's in a single minor league season, let alone in his entire career there, so I would say that's understating things. Russ Davis, on the other hand, strikes me as entirely plausible.

Wood's PECOTA card has a similarity score of 40, which should tell you how singular his 2005 run at Rancho was; his number one comp is Ron Hansen. Wood will hit some dingers, but I really don't see how he makes up for his godawful strikeout rate.

I still think Wood is Dean Palmer, though he can definitely handle short -- but if Erick Aybar can hit .270, he's the starting shortstop.

I'd like Dan's take (or others who have studied the numbers) but in my general poking around, I haven't seen a general tendency for K-rates to change much between minors and majors. I'll grant you that seems to defy logic, I'd expect the ML K-rate to be higher.

K-rate tends to be fairly linear and not really huge. The problem with strikeout guys is more the BABIP issue - if you chart minor league vs. major league BABIP, you get a curve that's pretty far from a line and nearly an asymptote at around .350-.360 in the majors. Since making a non-linear system, I think I've solved a lot of the problem with guys like Ruggiano having a ridiculous BABIP in the minors becoming only a slightly-less-ridiculous BABIP in the translation.

If he can slug .450 (even in a Russ Davis manner) and play shortstop, he is a solid player.

I just had a vision of a career similar to Frank Catalanotto or young Jeff Kent, the not outstanding but comparatively strong hitting infielder with questionable fielding that teams don't seem to appreciate.

Oh you didn't just diss Jose Hernandez did you? His on-contact numbers were 361/598. That's pretty darn good. Gary Sheffield is 336/592 for his career as an example. Frank Thomas is 363/671.

Jose Hernandez K'd 1 per 3.3 AB but hit the ball as hard (when he hit it) as somewhere between Sheffield and Thomas. His career OPS+ was 88. Even give Wood Frank Thomas's on-contact numbers with Hernandez's K-rate (which I think is a bit better than we'd expect at this point) and you're talking 253/468 for his overall BA/SLG. Give him Hernandez's walk rate (which was bad but not awful ... enough to add 60 points to his OBP) and that's an OPS+ of roughly 100.

Hernandez, who was very good defensively, looks like a pretty good comp to me, it's certainly a realistic downside (if Wood ever holds a job in the majors at all) with someone like Branyan (in terms of overall numbers but lower OBP) as the upside. He can certainly have a career with those numbers if he can play 2B/SS/3B but not a star.

Since you're all dying to know, Branyan is one of baseball's all-time great on-contact hitters at 384/801. Too bad he strikes out in 40% of his ABs.

Next time you're wondering about whether strikeouts are bad for hitters, keep Messrs. Hernandez and Branyan in mind. One is between Sheffield and Thomas when he hits the ball but has a career OPS+ of 88; the other is nearly as good as Ruth or Thome (and has an excellent walk-rate) but has a career OPS+ of 107.

(In case anyone gets confused, BABIP does not include HRs, on-contact does.)

The problem with strikeout guys is more the BABIP issue - if you chart minor league vs. major league BABIP, you get a curve that's pretty far from a line and nearly an asymptote at around .350-.360 in the majors.

Do you mean BABIP or BA on-contact? A BABIP of 350-360 is pretty much the asymptote for everybody isn't it? Even Ruth only had a BABIP of 340. OK, Cobb got it up over 370.