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Thursday, December 06, 2018

What’s in a pitch? A Biola statistician connects a change in the baseball to movement

Comparing every pitch thrown in 2016 and 2017, including the postseason, Wilson concluded the league-average pitch quality dropped across several major pitch types: 11 percent for four-seam fastballs, 2 percent for sinkers, 4 percent for cutters and 3 percent for sliders.

The likelihood of this outcome defied mere chance.

Year-to-year quality of pitch “certainly fluctuates,” Wilson said. “What stands out is that that one was across the board. Every single category, you’ve got a drop.”

Looking at the individual components of pitch quality, Wilson said that vertical break was “the strongest component that was related to the decrease in quality of pitch and the increase in home runs.” At the same time that home runs were increasing, at the same time that the laces on major league baseballs were wider, pitches were breaking less – with little regard for who was throwing the pitch, and what kind of pitch was being thrown.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:54 PM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: science

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   1. Rally Posted: December 07, 2018 at 08:34 AM (#5794915)
2016/2017 was the time frame when MLB switched from Pitch f/x to Trackman, at least for the publicly available stuff. I don't see that mentioned in the article. I would hope he's using consistent data for the analysis.

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