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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Which Players Will Be Most Affected by the Hall of Fame’s New Rules?

To read the chart, scan across until you find a player’s vote share in his first year of eligibility — then scan up to see where the various curves intersect it. For instance, for a player like Mussina who got 20 percent of the vote in his first year:

There is a 10 percent chance he gets elected within his first 10 years of BBWAA eligibility, according to the regression analysis. (This is the yellow curve.)
There is a 23 percent chance he gets elected within the 15-year eligibility window. (The red curve.)
There is a 34 percent chance he gets elected by either the BBWAA or eventually by the Veterans Committee. (The blue curve.)

Worth reading the whole thing, imo.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 29, 2014 at 12:36 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nate silver

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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 29, 2014 at 04:16 PM (#4759845)
The excerpt above presumes that future voting behavior will be unaffected by the change in the rules. While we cannot be sure that this is the case, isn't it fair to say that voters will begin to make more inelastic judgments about players being in or out earlier in the life cycle of a candidacy?

Or maybe it is more accurate to say that we have no idea how voters will respond to this rule change? The consequences of the rule change are uncertain, and likely unintended.
   2. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 29, 2014 at 04:55 PM (#4759894)
Silver talks about that later in the article.
   3. puck Posted: July 29, 2014 at 06:39 PM (#4759976)
I was more interested in the World Cup of food. Group stage, knockouts. Indian food did not make it out of the group stage!
   4. McCoy Posted: July 29, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4759988)
puck Posted: July 29, 2014 at 06:39 PM (#4759976)

I was more interested in the World Cup of food. Group stage, knockouts. Indian food did not make it out of the group stage!


Forget the hall. Let's just talk about this!

Japan can't beat Greece? And you're right about India not advancing being a shocker. I can't believe Belgium beat out South Korea either.

Round of 16 featured no real surprises to me. Round of 8 had I think more to do with homerism and patriotism than anything else. After the round of 8 I could have predicted the winners all the way to the end.
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: July 29, 2014 at 08:03 PM (#4760016)
The excerpt above presumes that future voting behavior will be unaffected by the change in the rules. While we cannot be sure that this is the case, isn't it fair to say that voters will begin to make more inelastic judgments about players being in or out earlier in the life cycle of a candidacy?

Or maybe it is more accurate to say that we have no idea how voters will respond to this rule change? The consequences of the rule change are uncertain, and likely unintended.


This rule will do what it was created to do, It will keep McGwire out of the hof, and probably Bonds and Clemens. As an unfortunate side effect it will probably also keep Raines out. It will make the PED voters who are wavering, stick by to their convictions longer and might even hurt guys like Bagwell or Piazza who are just 'rumored' guys.

I do not see any way this will speed people getting in, it's just going to encourage the voters to not vote for guys who don't look promising. With McGwire off the ballot, it only strengthens the anti-peders argument since he's not on there to remind them that there are writers voting for a confirmed user. (Note... I don't think McGwire was ever going to go in, but his presence on the ballot does strengthen Bonds and Clemens and others, especially among the few open minded writers who are willing to change their minds)
   6. Walt Davis Posted: July 29, 2014 at 08:35 PM (#4760039)
Well, it's hard to imagine a scenario where McGwire was getting in anyway -- maybe if 15 HoFers or 1 Derek Jeter confessed to using roids, the floodgates would open and at least 64% (raw) the 89% of voters who didn't list Mac on their 2014 ballots would switch over quickly.

It does sweep him under the rug after 2016 though.

It will reduce the amount of time Clemens and Bonds are on the ballot but they're still gonna be there for another 8 embarrassing years.

I simply don't see what "problem" this change solves. It doesn't get the roid guys off the ballots, it doesn't affect their nearly non-existent chances very much, it has a good chance of screwing Raines (especially) and possibly Bagwell, Mussina and Schilling -- Edgar and Walker are now dead in the water.

Maybe it was meant to push the existing Bonds/Clemens voters to drop them from their ballots in strategic voting.

It's always possible that the new rule will lead to substantially new behavior by the voters in the aggregate but I doubt it. I bet most of the time the typical voter doesn't know (or care) what year it is for a player unless it's his first or his last. So I doubt we'll see much change in patterns for ballots 2 through 9. Sure, if somebody is up to 65% in year 9 their chance of making it in year 10 is now a lot higher but they were almost certainly making it anyway.

What's missing from the analysis is the dynamics of people entering/exiting which is a big driver for vote gains/drops. The current situation is fairly dire not just because there are a lot of qualified candidates on the ballot but because there's a sizeable wave of them that will be entering the ballot over the next 5 years. We can't say with certainty that Johnson, Pedro and Griffey will all be elected (although that's pretty close) but we know they'll eat up a ton of votes (barring PEDs) along with Smoltz doing reasonably well. There's a bit of a lull -- slackers like IRod, Vlad and Manny -- but that's eventually followed by Chipper, Thome, Rivera, Jeter and whoever else I've forgotten.

Basically there's likely only room for one of the backlog in 2015 (Biggio), theoretically two but probably only one in 2016, 2017 is pretty wide open, then probably at most one in 2018 (Chipper, Thome come on). Unless the BBWAA makes a habit of three inductees, it doesn't matter that much where you are right now unless you're over 50% (maybe Raines) cuz you've only got one year where you've got a chance to see a big jump.

Since this was written by the man himself, I'll get persnickety on the statistics:

These answers aren’t too far from the quick-and-dirty numbers that I came up with before.

Of course it wasn't. The Q&D results looked at guys in a debut point range and calculated the proportion who made it. The logistic regression uses the same variable in its continuous form and estimates the probability of making it. What data do you think the logistic is working off of? There is virtually no point in running a bivariate logistic regression, just use a table and chi-square or similar. No need to complicate life with a logistic regression unless you're going to control for additional variables.
   7. pthomas Posted: July 29, 2014 at 11:03 PM (#4760108)
It makes the Hall of Fame even more a waste of time to think about.
   8. DanG Posted: July 30, 2014 at 12:00 AM (#4760147)
The current situation is fairly dire not just because there are a lot of qualified candidates on the ballot but because there's a sizeable wave of them that will be entering the ballot over the next 5 years.
Yep. Here are new candidates with 40+ WAR due to enter the ballot:

1st  WAR  Player        Rank
2015 102.1 Randy Johnson  28
2015 84.0 Pedro Martinez  54
2015 69.5 John Smoltz    101
2015 60.2 Gary Sheffield 175
2015 50.9 Brian Giles    279
2015 44.3 Carlos Delgado 390
2015 44.2 No Garciaparra 395
   
2016 83.6 Ken Griffey     56
2016 60.3 Jim Edmonds    173
2016 41.5 Jason Kendall  459
   
2017 69.2 Manny Ramirez  105
2017 68.4 Ivan Rodriguez 109
2017 59.3 Vlad Guerrero  184
2017 46.5 Mike Cameron   346
2017 46.0 Javier Vazquez 355
2017 44.9 J
.DDrew      376
2017 42.7 Jorge Posada   426
   
2018 85.0 Chipper Jones   50
2018 72.9 Jim Thome       83
2018 70.0 Scott Rolen     98
2018 62.8 Andruw Jones   152
2018 56.0 Johnny Damon   218
2018 51.4 Johan Santana  272
2018 50.4 Jamie Moyer    288
2018 45.3 Omar Vizquel   367
2018 44.6 Carlos Zambrano385
   
2019 116.0 Alex Rodriguez 17
2019 64.7 Roy Halladay   136
2019 61.5 Todd Helton    162
2019 60.8 Andy Pettitte  170
2019 57.1 Mariano Rivera 211
2019 51.8 Lance Berkman  267
2019 50.2 Roy Oswalt     289
2019 47.1 Miguel Tejada  335
2019 41.4 Placido Polanco463 

   9. GregD Posted: July 30, 2014 at 12:16 AM (#4760157)
Yep. Here are new candidates with 40+ WAR due to enter the ballot:
That list is crazy!

I am no Scott Rolen fan, but still it is going to be depressing to watch him make a run for the biggest WAR to HOF vote ratio.

   10. cardsfanboy Posted: July 30, 2014 at 12:24 AM (#4760162)
From that list
In 2015 Pedro and Randy(joining Biggio) go in easily, and Giles is one and done off the ballot, leaving a left over of Sheffield, Delgado and Nomar. (Sosa(probably) and Mattingly drops off the ballot also) (adds three to the backlog, removes three)

In 2016 Kendall is one and done, Griffey in easily in, Edmonds sticks around. (McGwire and Trammel term limit off the ballot) (adds one to the backlog, removes two or more if Bagwell or Piazza go in)

In 2017 Drew, Vasquez, and Cameron are one and done...none of the new additions are likely to go in though, adding Manny, Irod, Vlad, and Posada to the backlog. Lee Smith and Raines are off the ballot one way or another at this point. It might be Bagwell and Piazza's best year to go in. (adds four to the backlog, removes two assuming nobody goes in, but I imagine both Bagwell and Piazza will be in by then.)

2018 Chipper goes in easily, Thome comes close or goes in, Moyer and Zambrano goes one and done...meaning a backlog of Omar, Rolen, Andruw, Santana, and Damon stick around.(Santana might also go one and done---see Kevin Brown)


Not counting 2019, basically you more or less don't have much addition to the backlog. Assuming I'm right here, it means you add
roughly five players to the backlog over who you remove, and this is assuming Larry Walker still gets 10%(unlikely) and that guys like Thome don't go in,
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: July 30, 2014 at 12:29 AM (#4760163)
counting 2019 you have Rivera first balloter, I imagine Arod wouldn't be eligible yet, Halladay a guy who should be first ballot but probably won't, Oswalt, Polanco, and Tejada will be one and done, leaving Helton, Pettite, Berkman to be added to the backlog.... (McGriff is the only one coming off the ballot that year)

I am no Scott Rolen fan, but still it is going to be depressing to watch him make a run for the biggest WAR to HOF vote ratio.


He'll do better than Kevin Brown and his 68.5 war vs 12(2.1%) vote total.

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