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Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Which teams are hitting—and missing—in MLB Draft? | FOX Sports

BP’s Ben Lindbergh breaks down draft success (or failure) by team.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 04, 2014 at 01:34 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: draft, sabermetrics

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   1. DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2014 at 02:58 PM (#4718919)
Don't really like the 2nd graph. I think you zero out the negative guys before you tally.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 04, 2014 at 03:06 PM (#4718937)
This was posted yesterday. Here's the thread.

   3. Don Malcolm Posted: June 04, 2014 at 05:55 PM (#4719177)
Yeah, Jim...Repoz would never goof up like this.

Or, if he did, he'd at least have an obscure reference with which to fudge the evidence...
   4. Wahoo Sam Posted: June 04, 2014 at 06:00 PM (#4719188)
This is fine if you only want to grade teams on WHO they draft and whether or not those drafted players turn out to have value on the field. BUT, there are other things an organization can do with the draft - they can spin their picks for MLB talent. The Tigers, for example, have excelled at ripping other teams off who value draft picks above current MLB value. Both Miguel Cabrera and Anibal Sanchez came to Detroit because the Marlins were dumb enough to think draft picks were of high value. Doug Fister was also acquire by Detroit (and it appears probably gotten rid of at the right time) with draft selections. Omar Infante also, and other teams also do this effectively, though there are few. What Dombrowski has figured out is that if you can cultivate a reputation for drafting well, you can flip draft picks and get real MLB talent right away and know what it's worth, as opposed to hoping your high draft picks end up producing in The Show.
   5. Wahoo Sam Posted: June 04, 2014 at 06:03 PM (#4719190)
Of course, the linked article also ignores a huge factor in draft success: player development. The Cardinals aren't just drafting better players, they are developing who they draft better than anyone else. A few "duds" in the Orioles farm system would probably get to the majors if they had the benefit of learning The Cardinal Way.
   6. Moeball Posted: June 05, 2014 at 03:50 PM (#4719858)
Don't really like the 2nd graph. I think you zero out the negative guys before you tally.


I don't know, I think it's quite telling that my Padres suck so bad they're actually getting below replacement level performance from position players that they are drafting and promoting. According to the graph it also looks like they are the only major league franchise to be getting such poor performance from their picks.

Of course, the linked article also ignores a huge factor in draft success: player development. The Cardinals aren't just drafting better players, they are developing who they draft better than anyone else.


This is where the Padres are absolutely the worst, IMHO. They are bringing players up that aren't good enough to consistently play at the MLB level. Part of that is economics; part of it is just having a farm system that doesn't know how to properly develop talent.

Supposedly when you bring a player up from the minors you are going to get the performance expected of a guy just coming up from the minors, the very definition of replacement player. But the Padres don't even seem to be able to do that. It's not just their original draft picks, either. When they brought up Anthony Rizzo he didn't hit a lick; he was so bad some pitchers were outhitting him. For a first baseman that's inexcusable. They basically had to trade him; it's easy to look at his numbers with the Cubs and think "why weren't the Padres patient enough to keep him and let that skill develop?" The point is, had he stayed in a Padres uniform, those hitting skills never would have developed.
   7. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: June 05, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4719935)
The point is, had he stayed in a Padres uniform, those hitting skills never would have developed.


You don't actually know that.

Sure Grandal has gone 143, 102, 85 but short sample sizes (OPS+)
and Alonso 110, 106 and 67
and Gyorko from 113 to 39
and Cabrera 85, 113, 78

but after going 103 to 85 to 36 his first 3 years as a Padre former uber prospect Maybin is at 121 this year :-)

I haven't paid a lot of attention to the Padres, but yikes they do seem to have Royals disease where young players invariably stall or regress after promising beginnings (of course Rizzo could not have stalled or regressed after his Padre beginning, you can't have a negative OPS can you?)

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