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Monday, December 16, 2013

White Sox deal closer Reed to Diamondbacks for 3B prospect Davidson

White Sox general manager Rick Hahn continued to make bold moves in remaking the team Monday, dealing closer Addison Reed to the Diamondbacks for Triple-A third baseman Matt Davidson.

Carlo Paz Posted: December 16, 2013 at 06:24 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: diamondbacks, kevin towers, rick hahn, trades, white sox

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 08:37 PM (#4619238)
This sucks. I thought maybe the Sox were hiring a bad GM, but Hahn has done some really good work this winter. Way to recognize the saves are overrated.
   2. madvillain Posted: December 16, 2013 at 08:38 PM (#4619239)
I might have undersold Reed a bit in the other thread. I just checked some of his peripherals and it seems last year he just had some bad luck with earned runs, most of his underlying stats remained the same or were slightly better than the previous year. Using the normalized HR rate of xFIP he posted a 3.79 xFIP and a 1.7 fWAR in 2013, pretty good for a reliever, but still, he's a reliever.

His upside is as a 2 or 2.5 WAR closer, his floor seems as a 1 or 1.5 WAR setup man. So the D Backs get a solid young and cheap reliever, and the Sox get a bit of a risk (well worth it in their case) on a close to MLB ready 3B.

Good trade for both teams IMO, although I don't know enough about the D-Backs to say if they are really good enough to where they should be trading for "proven closers" even if said closer is young and cheap and fairly good.

I thought maybe the Sox were hiring a bad GM, but Hahn has done some really good work this winter. Way to recognize the saves are overrated.


Hahn has been Chicago's little secret gem for awhile. Most Sox fans expected him to take a GM job elsewhere (he interviewed for at least a couple while VP in Chicago) and were thrilled when he took over for KW. He has a great mix of saber savvy and big picture thinking, from what we've seen so far.
   3. Tim D Posted: December 16, 2013 at 10:32 PM (#4619285)
As I Tiger fan I really dislike seeing the Chisox do smart stuff. Nate Jones slides in as closer, Davidson takes 3B, Keppinger does what he does best or gets moved.
   4. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 16, 2013 at 11:12 PM (#4619317)
I looked at Davidson's stats and thought they looked unimpressive for the high scoring PCL. But then, when you look at all the guys with better OPS's in the PCL, almost all of them were a few years older than him.
   5. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:07 AM (#4619376)
The top 20 hitters in the PCL averaged something like 27 years old.

Again Towers gives up on a youngster with substantial upside as a full time player to add a proven reliever.
   6. asinwreck Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:12 AM (#4619379)
As a Sox fan, I'm pretty happy with Hahn. The only deal I haven't liked this offseason is resigning Konerko, and that decision likely came from someone who issues Hahn's paycheck.

Any other Diamondbacks worth bringing to the South Side this winter?
   7. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2013 at 02:13 AM (#4619397)
I'm posting this reminiscence again: back in the day, before Moneyball was published, I remember that we statheads considered Kevin Towers to be one of the few GMs that knew what the #### he was doing.
   8. if nature called, ladodger34 would listen Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:28 AM (#4619405)
I'm posting this reminiscence again: back in the day, before Moneyball was published, I remember that we statheads considered Kevin Towers to be one of the few GMs that knew what the #### he was doing.


I spent way too long looking stuff up, but the biggest mistake he seemed to make in San Diego was that Randy Myers waiver claim. I'm sure he made worse moves, but the guy was pretty dang successful especially in that market. They won their division 4 times along with a pennant. He certainly seemed to 'win' his trades.

I wonder how much Bochy had to do with that stuff? I'm not saying that Bochy had influence over player personnel above and beyond the normal manager. Towers just seems to run things different in AZ than he did in SD. It could be ownership influences, too.
   9. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:20 AM (#4619424)
It's still early but he was universally crapped on for the Didi Gregorious trade, and is it possible the Dbacks might actually win that deal?
   10. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:32 AM (#4619430)
It's still early but he was universally crapped on for the Didi Gregorious trade, and is it possible the Dbacks might actually win that deal?


Didi's OPS splits, by month:

April: 1.226
May: .799
June: .588
July: .674
August: .513
Sept: :.780

Looks like the league figured him out, and he had trouble adjusting (the .780 in September is in only 40PA, and he hit only .182)
   11. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:45 AM (#4619436)
Keppinger does what he does best or gets moved.


Sit on his ######' ass for eight innings and enjoy watching a baseball game just like any other fan, and have the ability to get up there and break one open in the ######' ninth?
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:47 AM (#4619437)
It's pretty indefensible to have not gotten more for Bauer. Even if he doesn't end up panning out, they squandered a ton of potential trade value there, and it looks like Didi is going to be displaced by Owings after only one season.

Towers used to be a pretty good GM, but sometimes guys just lose the plot as they get older. Syd Thrift was an excellent GM with the Pirates, and ten years later, he was a bad joke with the Orioles. The same thing happened with John Hart, too.
   13. Chris Fluit Posted: December 17, 2013 at 10:28 AM (#4619457)
Again Towers gives up on a youngster with substantial upside as a full time player to add a proven reliever.


Among Blue Jay fans, that's known as the Gord Ash Plan. Though Ash occasionally gave up established full time players for proven relievers, not just prospects.
   14. zonk Posted: December 17, 2013 at 10:47 AM (#4619464)
It's pretty indefensible to have not gotten more for Bauer. Even if he doesn't end up panning out, they squandered a ton of potential trade value there, and it looks like Didi is going to be displaced by Owings after only one season.


Right -

Bauer would have fetched more and the DBacks already had Owings - who may have upped his stock in 2013, but was still a good prospect in 2012.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 10:52 AM (#4619466)
I'm posting this reminiscence again: back in the day, before Moneyball was published, I remember that we statheads considered Kevin Towers to be one of the few GMs that knew what the #### he was doing.


Seems like in San Diego he always had payroll constraints (aside from 1998) and always had to make due with what he could find, and he was pretty good at finding cheap talent. In Arizona, I don't get the impression he has such restraints, and is free to completely make over this team. Someone - either himself, or Kirk Gibson, or someone else - has seemed to convinced him that character and grit are very important now.
   16. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:02 AM (#4619471)
Davidson was 54th in the PCL in OPS

but only 3 guys above him were his age or younger, Wilmer Flores, Chris Owings and Kolten Wong.

He was 13th in the Southern League in 2012, the only same age or younger guy above him was Nick Franklin
He was 46th in the Calif in 2011, 3 guys his age above him - Galvez, Arenado and Rincon

By the numbers he looks like someone interesting, but not a "wow" guy.
   17. if nature called, ladodger34 would listen Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:45 AM (#4619512)
Seems like in San Diego he always had payroll constraints (aside from 1998) and always had to make due with what he could find, and he was pretty good at finding cheap talent. In Arizona, I don't get the impression he has such restraints, and is free to completely make over this team. Someone - either himself, or Kirk Gibson, or someone else - has seemed to convinced him that character and grit are very important now.


And you know what is really crazy? San Diego's farm system produced some nice pieces during his tenure (Peavy, Derek Lee, maybe Jason BY) but I wouldn't say they were super successful. He did seem to be really good at finding talent for cheap. And his trades were pretty damned good. He picked up Giles for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. Back then, it probably seemed like alot but he did pretty well in that one. He also grabbed Klesko and Bret Boone for Joyner, Reggie Sanders, and Quilvio Veras. Dude got Phil Nevin for Andy Sheets (basically).

Like I said in an earlier post, he was damn good at winning trades.

And the talent in AZ seems mostly because of Josh Byrnes and Jerry DiPoto right?
   18. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:33 PM (#4619620)
And the talent in AZ seems mostly because of Josh Byrnes and Jerry DiPoto right?


Yes, and an assist from previous regime.

The criticism is he inherited a lot of cheap talent and squandered much of it

If the Didi trade works out it's because Bauer busts. But the problem is he could have gotten a much more valuable player for Bauer, but can't value players well and overrated Didi, thinking a no bat glove only shortstop reminded him of Jeter.
   19. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:06 PM (#4619681)
He picked up Giles for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. Back then, it probably seemed like a lot but he did pretty well in that one.


He LOST that trade:
1: Pitt was in salary dump mode, when one team is salary dumping to you, you are supposed to win on the talent side
2: He didn't win on the talent side, since Bay turned into Giles essentially (and Oliver Perez had one real good year for Pitt before flaking out).
3: Bay wasn't Pitt's first choice, they wanted Xavier Nady, Towers said no, offered Bay instead, and Pitt took him, because their main goal was to stop paying Gile's salary.

The Phil Nevin trade worked out real well, but that's kind of the flip side of trading away Bay
   20. if nature called, ladodger34 would listen Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:18 AM (#4620683)
Giles put up 17.1 WAR for San Diego (including a nasty -1.9 his last year), while Bay put up 15.2 and Ollie Perez gave them 4.2. I guess in that sense, Pittsburgh did get more talent in the trade and it wasn't a clear win for the Padres but I still think it was a decent trade for Towers.

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