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Thursday, December 22, 2011

White Sox lock up Danks for his prime

Expect it to become official soon after Christmas. Multiple reports have the deal at five years, $65 million.

This came out of nowhere, eh?

chisoxcollector Posted: December 22, 2011 at 06:08 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: white sox

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   1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 22, 2011 at 12:43 PM (#4021688)
That seems a tad generous given that he was under team control for another year - CJ Wilson is a much better pitcher and got 5/75 on the FA market. Buehrle's a little better and got 4/58. Jered Weaver is much, much better and took 5/85 in a similar position. Given Danks' relative lack of leverage here, I'd have thought the White Sox could do a bit better.
   2. Run Joe Run Posted: December 22, 2011 at 01:39 PM (#4021699)
This came out of nowhere, eh?


I wish there were a sportswriters prediction scorecard. The fact that Danks' own team signed him for a big extension indicates to me that either a) the Sox are great at keeping secrets; b) sportswriters just make crap up. Ok, there are probably lots of other options. But this year I have noticed many more "surprises"
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 22, 2011 at 02:07 PM (#4021710)
I wish there were a sportswriters prediction scorecard. The fact that Danks' own team signed him for a big extension indicates to me that either a) the Sox are great at keeping secrets; b) sportswriters just make crap up. Ok, there are probably lots of other options. But this year I have noticed many more "surprises"

Or maybe the CWS just changed their mind.

It was an odd scenario. The packages they were asking for Danks looked like they thought he was Felix Hernandez.
   4. Danny Posted: December 22, 2011 at 02:22 PM (#4021718)
CJ Wilson is a much better pitcher and got 5/75 on the FA market.

To be fair, Wilson also cost a draft pick.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 22, 2011 at 02:24 PM (#4021719)
I think the Danks trade rumors came from the fact that people heard the Sox were rebuilding and just assumed since Danks is one of their best trading chips, he was gone soon. Maybe the Sox actually want to keep him around.

Yea, its an overpay. Danks is a good pitcher, but he's not really an ace IMO, and this is pretty close to ace money.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 22, 2011 at 02:31 PM (#4021727)
I think the Danks trade rumors came from the fact that people heard the Sox were rebuilding and just assumed since Danks is one of their best trading chips,

I don't hink so. There were specific reports of the packages Chicago was asking for, e.g. Montero and Banuelos from the Yankees.
   7. CWS Keith plans to [omitted] at [omitted] Posted: December 22, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#4021770)
I don't hink so. There were specific reports of the packages Chicago was asking for, e.g. Montero and Banuelos from the Yankees.

Yeah -- I tend to think Danks was on the trade block, but that teams balked at the Sox' demands.

Yea, its an overpay. Danks is a good pitcher, but he's not really an ace IMO, and this is pretty close to ace money.

This deal is pretty far from ace money. Lee, Halladay and Sabathia all got "ace money", and Darvish's combined posting fee + contract number will likely be ~$40 million more than Danks' deal. Heck, if you believe fangraphs $/WAR figures, Danks only needs to be worth 2.5 WAR per season for the deal to work out. The confusion seems to come from the fact that somewhat similar pitchers in somewhat similar contractual situations (Billingsly, Wandy Rodriguez) got quite a bit less in their recent extensions.
   8. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#4021847)
CJ Wilson is a much better pitcher and got 5/75 on the FA market.

CJ's contract goes from ages 32 to 36. Danks contract goes from ages 27 to 31.

Part of the reason Danks gets the money he's getting is his age. That, and the fact he's fairly durable, and a good quality pitcher. (His ERA wasn't very good last year, but his rate stats were fine - better than in 2009 or 2010, actually).
   9. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#4021877)
I like it, partly for completely illogical reasons. With Buehrle gone, and had the Sox managed to trade Danks, Floyd, and Thornton, the current team's leader in wins with the White Sox would have been Jake Peavy with 17, followed by Philip Humber with 9. I'm not sure why, but that would have made me sad.

Running the search, I learned that Lorenzo Barcelo is still hanging around. He went 10-7, 3.54 in the Mexican League and 5-0, 3.96 in the Atlantic League this year. He hasn't pitched for a team affiliated with an MLB team since 2003.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#4021879)
That seems a tad generous given that he was under team control for another year - CJ Wilson is a much better pitcher and got 5/75 on the FA market. Buehrle's a little better and got 4/58. Jered Weaver is much, much better and took 5/85 in a similar position. Given Danks' relative lack of leverage here, I'd have thought the White Sox could do a bit better.


Danks was at $6 million last year so what's a fair arbitration number for him? $8? $9? Let's call it $8 million. That makes the FA portion of this deal 4/57 which certainly seems reasonable in a fair market situation and with just a year to go there wasn't a lot of incentive for Danks to give a meaningful discount.
   11. Mark Edward Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:35 PM (#4021885)
Danks had a few random, nagging injuries last year that affected his performance- IIRC he went on the DL with a hip problem & he had this issue where his fingers would go numb. As Dag Nabbit mentioned, his peripherals remained solid and he'll only be 27 next April.

They'll still need to dump some payroll so I don't expect Quentin or Thornton to be around much longer. I wouldn't be surprised if Floyd, Crain, and/or Ramirez were moved too.
   12. Eddo Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:47 PM (#4021901)
They'll still need to dump some payroll so I don't expect Quentin or Thornton to be around much longer. I wouldn't be surprised if Floyd, Crain, and/or Ramirez were moved too.

A Ramirez trade would bother me. He's essentially their best position player (worth 7.0 bWAR combined the last two years), and pretty damn affordable (per BRef, signed at 4 years, $32.5M from 2012-2015, with a team option for 2016).
   13. Tom Riddle Posted: December 22, 2011 at 07:30 PM (#4022072)
How can you possibly think this is ace money? It's a five year contract for 13 million per year that will end when he's 31. That's pretty solid. This is the exact opposite of giving a pitcher 20 million per year for a seven or eight years when he's already 30. Baseball Reference has him as a great pitcher from 2008-2010. He was worse this year in terms of results, although his rate stats got better. And he's still only 26.
   14. Mark Edward Posted: December 22, 2011 at 07:40 PM (#4022082)
A Ramirez trade would bother me. He's essentially their best position player (worth 7.0 bWAR combined the last two years), and pretty damn affordable (per BRef, signed at 4 years, $32.5M from 2012-2015, with a team option for 2016).


It would bother me too, I don't want to see him go anywhere. However, he is one of the few valuable players on this team who makes a chunk of change. Plus they have nobody to replace him (I doubt Beckham can move back to SS at this point & Escobar can't hit).
   15. CWS Keith plans to [omitted] at [omitted] Posted: December 22, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#4022258)
Not Danks related, but there are rumors that the Sox may be sniffing around Cespedes. I don't know if it's a writer or two thinking that having Ramirez and Viciedo automatically indicates the Sox will be in on another Cuban, or if there's actual smoke here. I can see it from the perspective that I never really bought in to Kenny actually "rebuilding", at least in the sense of trading multiple, significant parts of the team for prospects -- the return for Danks and Quentin was never going to be as large as they were hoping for, and I think Williams still believes he's got a good enough pitching staff to compete in a weak division. Even so, where does the money for Cespedes come from? Presumably that'd mean Quentin + one or two of Thornton/Crain/Fraser are out the door, right? I actually think I'd be okay with that, if only to provide a bit of excitement heading into 2012.
   16. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM (#4022279)
How can you possibly think this is ace money? It's a five year contract for 13 million per year that will end when he's 31. That's pretty solid. This is the exact opposite of giving a pitcher 20 million per year for a seven or eight years when he's already 30.


Even CJ Wilson's contract isn't vaguely close to being what you describe in the last sentence here. Cliff Lee's was only 6 years.
   17. BurlyBuehrle Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:40 PM (#4022319)
Based on the return Oakland reportedly is getting for Gio Gonzalez...Danks probably should have been moved. I get that Gonzalez was controlled through 2016 and Danks wasn't...but still, Danks is objectively better, and is the same age. I take this to mean Kenny never was serious about moving Danks in the first place, but instead was engaged in his usual delusions-of-a-secret-agent shenanigans.

Oh well, at least we still have Peavy, Dunn, and Rios.
   18. Tom Riddle Posted: December 23, 2011 at 04:17 AM (#4022484)
@16:

You're right. My fault. Still, though, five years for a 26 year old is much better than four to six years for a 29 or 30 year old.

@17:

Gonzalez being controlled through 2016 is pretty big. Danks has one year left and Gonzalez has five. And I guess Gonzalez isn't being paid that much either. But maybe this does raise Danks' trade value later.
   19. rr Posted: December 23, 2011 at 07:32 AM (#4022513)
How much will Jose Lopez get now?

/meme

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