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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

White Sox sign Jake Peavy to two-year extension

The new deal will pay Peavy $14.5 million for each of the next two seasons. If Peavy reaches a certain innings threshold in those seasons, then he can unilaterally exercise a $15-million option for the 2015 season. Peavy’s previous contract called for a $22-million team option for 2013 and $4-million buyout. In addition to the new contract soon to be in place, the White Sox will pay Peavy the $4-million buyout on his preexisting option.

Rick Hahn starts his tenure off on the right foot.

Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 30, 2012 at 06:33 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: chicago, general, jake peavy, signings, white sox

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   1. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: October 30, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4288792)
I was certain Peavy was gone. Chicago grew on him after the first attempted trade. The money too, I guess.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4288798)
Tough call. If he has two seasons like 2012 this is quite the bargain. If he has a combined 2011-12 this is probably about break-even. If he turns back into the injury-riddled guy, this isn't too good. Pitchers eh? I wonder what the innings threshold is.
   3. haven Posted: October 30, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4288820)
Rick Hahn starts his tenure off on the right foot.


Is this a series comment? Counting on Peavy to be healthy seems like an incredible gamble to me. I think I would have played the odds and let him walk to be honest.
   4. stealfirstbase Posted: October 30, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4288830)
The White Sox also could have netted a first round pick for Peavy if he left. I've been wanting the White Sox to rebuild for about 6 years now, but they never do it. They haven't collapsed either, so maybe they know what they're doing.

So, basically, a two year 29 M contract? I think that's probably fair market value for Peavy. He did have an excellent season.
   5. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: October 30, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4288856)
I think he's proved that when healthy, he's a solid starter. Those guys are going to get paid. I think he may have gotten a 3 year deal on the open market, so I like this one for the White Sox.
   6. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: October 30, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4288857)
I think he's proved that when healthy, he's a solid starter. Those guys are going to get paid. I think he may have gotten a 3 year deal on the open market, so I like this one for the White Sox.
   7. Darren Posted: October 30, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4288895)
This is really more like 2/25. Peavy is getting the first 4 mil, whether he signs or not. I'm surprised he took this without testing fa. I'd think 2/25 would be the least he'd get.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4288903)
Counting on Peavy to be healthy seems like an incredible gamble to me

Well, there's healthy and then there's healthy. I'm not sure you should count on any pitcher being healthy although, yes, Peavy has established himself as a bigger risk than most.

But as I noted above, if he gives them the equivalent of 2011-12, that's 330 IP at 112 ERA+ or 5.9 WAR. (I'm not a big fan of WAR for pitchers but probably a decent place to start.) That makes this a break-even contract at $5 M/WAR and I think $/WAR is probably gonna be more like $6 M after this postseason.

Even his 27-28 seasons are 274 IP at 126 ERA+ and 5.3 WAR, still break-even. 28-29 would not be so good (200 IP of 102 ERA+) but even that gets you up to 3 WAR which would not be good but hardly a disaster. But even in all those 100ish IP seasons of 2009-11, he had an 8.4/2.6 K/BB with an HR/9 under 1 -- a lot to like there. He never stopped being a good pitcher (had some non-good results), he just wasn't on the field. So he's a good, currently healthy pitcher.

(And obviously if he gives you two 2012s, you've made out like a bandit.)

We shouldn't kid ourselves. There are only 66 pitchers who threw more innings 2011-12 than Peavy. You don't get to a better ERA+ until Zimmermann at 357 IP/128 ERA+ at #56. There are 79 with more IP 2010-12 and this view makes him the uninspiring equivalent of Homer Bailey and Brandon Morrow.

I do want to know what the vesting threshold is for that option. I assume it's reasonably far north of 330 IP. The big risk might be two years of 180 IP of 94 ERA+ -- not nearly bad enough to lose a rotation slot -- and then he exercises the option.

EDIT: 500+ IP, 105+ ERA+ 2010-2012 -- 33 pitchers. Greinke, Sanchez and Marcum are available. Jackson and Dempster are close and available. A pretty good market for #2s but, other than Greinke, none with as good a chance as Peavy at being a "true #1".
   9. JoeC Posted: October 30, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4288917)
This is really more like 2/25. Peavy is getting the first 4 mil, whether he signs or not. I'm surprised he took this without testing fa. I'd think 2/25 would be the least he'd get.


The $4 million isn't part of the 2/29 - they have to pay it in addition to the 2/29 (plus the player option, which seems to be worth quite a bit).
   10. Darren Posted: October 30, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4288921)
Tried to fix my error above but it won't save. I'm still surprised Peavy wouldn't try fa first.
   11. madvillain Posted: October 30, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4288923)
Dave Cameron actually (ya, I know) had a good writeup over at Fangraphs about the contract. Peavy is a premium pitcher -- when healthy. Over the last 2 years only 3 starters in the AL have a better K/BB ratio then Peavy: Verlander, Haren and Sabathia. He's coming off a 219 inning season and hasn't had any noted problems since the surgery to uh, re-attach his lat muscle.

Chicago has a track record with pitcher health, so they feel (arguably correctly) that they can keep him healthy.

Chicago can contend next year in a tallest dwarf AL Central, this is a a nice way for Hahn to start the off-season. I think most Sox fans, including myself, thought Peavy was gone.

for clarification, here are the specifics:

$29-million contract extension, split down the middle at $14.5 million each year. If Peavy meets "certain innings-pitched thresholds" over the course of both seasons, he'll have a $15 million player option to consider for 2015.

Peavy's $4 million buyout, originally set for the termination of his previous contract, will be paid out in four equal installments from 2016 to 2019.


It's backloaded as much as possible, and if Peavy pitches himself into the player option he'll probably be a bargain in 2015 as well.
   12. JoeC Posted: October 30, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4288932)
That article calls it a team option, which I don't think is correct. Still agree that the Sox are getting a good deal - Peavy indeed probably could have gotten that extra year/$15 million somewhere else without the vesting requirements (whatever they are).
   13. madvillain Posted: October 30, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4288938)
The vesting option imo is a sign of what good terms peavy is on with the sox, he wants them, they want him and if he makes it, everyone wins.
   14. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: October 31, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4288966)
The White Sox also could have netted a first round pick for Peavy if he left.

Is this correct? Given the option/buyout in Peavy's contract, I didn't think the Sox could buy him out and then make the ~$13m qualifying offer.

Not that it changes my view on this deal. Two years? I'm chuffed.

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