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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Who’s Going to Win the Chaotic NL Wild-Card Race?

The National League wild-card race is a big stupid mess. With Sunday’s games in the books, six teams are within five games of the second spot, with Washington and St. Louis hanging onto postseason positions for dear life. How long they can dig their fingernails into the cliff for the next six-plus weeks depends on whether the group behind them can put together a run. The Mets are the latest of those clubs to get red-hot, but even that blazing stretch has only put them in the thick of the race instead of at the top of the heap.

Is there a favorite, though, in that stew of squads? To find out, let’s dive into each of the eight teams still vying for the two wild-card spots and decide which pair are the better bets to play on into October. The playoff odds below originate from FanGraphs’ projection.

Son, at the rate it’s going, there will be no winners of the NL Wild Card race- only survivors.

 

QLE Posted: August 13, 2019 at 05:21 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, cardinals, diamondbacks, giants, mets, nationals, phillies, reds

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   1. Adam Starblind Posted: August 13, 2019 at 09:42 AM (#5870889)
These are still the Mets, and expecting doom is always the safe play. The main problem is how thin the roster is. Half the lineup can’t hit, the bullpen is a fire hazard, and while the rotation is strong, it’s injury-prone with zero available reinforcements.


The Mets' front 5 have started 98 of the team's 118 games this year.
   2. flournoy Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:09 AM (#5870897)
Is 98/118 high? Seems to me like it ought to be fairly low.
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:17 AM (#5870902)

Is 98/118 high? Seems to me like it ought to be fairly low.


Ordinarily, it's probably slightly on the high side (at least for all teams - probably around average for teams contending for the postseason). But this seems like it's been a pretty healthy year for pitchers, so it is below several contenders.

   4. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:34 AM (#5870910)
I don't care if the odds listed are only 5.1%, just to see the Cincinnati Reds discussed at all in a late season article about making the playoffs is wonderful after what the last few seasons have been like for Reds fans.
   5. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5870912)
Who cares which team finishes 5th? Whoopee!
   6. bfan Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5870916)
I don't care if the odds listed are only 5.1%, just to see the Cincinnati Reds discussed at all in a late season article about making the playoffs is wonderful after what the last few seasons have been like for Reds fans.


The Reds have done an amazing job of building a tough starting rotation in less than a season; Castillo; Wood; Gray; and Bauer. That would be a tough gauntlet in a full series.
   7. Adam Starblind Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5870926)

Is 98/118 high? Seems to me like it ought to be fairly low.


Let's put it this way, nobody has spent significant time on the shelf this year, and they replaced Vargas with the more durable Stroman. Matz missed a couple of starts, but due to ineffectiveness (which I understand is not a virtue). The "injury prone" label is made up.
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: August 13, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5870929)

I don't care if the odds listed are only 5.1%, just to see the Cincinnati Reds discussed at all in a late season article about making the playoffs is wonderful after what the last few seasons have been like for Reds fans.


They might be the best team of the bunch (at least after the deadline moves).
   9. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: August 13, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5870975)
I mentioned a couple weeks back that if the Reds had a better offense, they'd probably be leading the NL Central.
   10. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 13, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5870987)
I mentioned a couple weeks back that if the Reds had a better offense, they'd probably be leading the NL Central.


Too bad they didn't bring up Aristides Aquino sooner. At his going rate, he would have hit something like 100 hr this year! :-)
   11. . Posted: August 13, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5870991)
I don't care if the odds listed are only 5.1%, just to see the Cincinnati Reds discussed at all in a late season article about making the playoffs is wonderful after what the last few seasons have been like for Reds fans.


So, yeah, the small band of we anti-tankers was spot-on -- as we pretty much always are.
   12. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 13, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5871036)
I somehow missed the memo that Alex Wood was back. But he hasn’t been all that stellar, so not sure why he is part of a tough gauntlet.
   13. Traderdave Posted: August 13, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5871042)
The Reds pitching turnaround is indeed amazing. It wasn't all that long ago that any of us could have cracked their rotation.
   14. TomH Posted: August 13, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5871086)
So, the betting odds of the NL WC winner facing the Dodgers will be... what, 3-1 against?
   15. Walt Davis Posted: August 13, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5871089)
Since the AS break, the Reds are giving up 5.3 R/G (and they gave up 18 in the two games just before the break). But the offense has woken up at 5.6 R/g. That's more like the Reds teams we've come to know and love the last few years.
   16. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: August 13, 2019 at 06:32 PM (#5871109)
He hasn't been stellar over three games. The guy is a good pitcher, let's not jump to any conclusions.
   17. KJOK Posted: August 14, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5871304)
"It’s honestly a surprise that the Cardinals are actually contending with such woeful pitching."

This article is just terrible. The Cardinals are second only to the Dodgers in the NL in run prevention. Their problem is they have only two above average hitters - Goldschmidt and Ozuna.



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