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Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Why the Cubs and Yankees Should Swap Tyler Chatwood and Sonny Gray

The biggest reason this perfectly reasonable idea wouldn’t happen is that Chatwood is guaranteed more money, but I like the idea behind it, at least:

Gray is still getting decent or better swinging-strike rates on his primary pitches. His velocity is pretty stable this year — and might actually be up a tick over last year — so there’s no obvious explanation for Gray’s struggles except for the change in approach he adopted when he came to New York. As for Chatwood, we knows he’s pitched poorly — and the pitch-value data suggests he’s struggled with his four-seamer and sinker more than other pitch by far. Yet those pitches also account for close to 60% of his offerings, with his changeup and curveball both in the single digits. The latter two pitches are actually above average on a rate basis, though. The whiff numbers on Chatwood’s secondaries are strong and, interestingly, Statcast suggests that Chatwood’s biggest control problems are on his four-seamer and sinker. He has better command, it seems, of his cutter, changeup, and curve.

Gray, in other words, would benefit by moving away from his secondary pitches, Chatwood by embracing them. Per Pitch Info, those two pitchers are on the worst teams for making those specific changes.

Cubs pitchers are throwing fewer secondaries than any other staff in the majors, the Yankees more of them. At some level, these figures are reliant on the actual personnel employed by the clubs. When the numbers are so divergent across an entire roster, however, it at least suggests the possibility of an organizational philosophy at work. By these numbers, Gray might benefit most from a move to Chicago, Chatwood from a move to New York.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:42 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, great trade, who'd we get, home runs, more walks, so many walks, trade idea, walks, yankees

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   1. Red Voodooin Posted: July 17, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5711292)
It won't happen, but I would sign up for this in a heartbeat as a Cubs fan. Watching Chatwood pitch is torture.
   2. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5711304)
Tell me more about this "Tyler Chatwood not pitching for the Cubs." I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
   3. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5711311)
Done!

If it helps get the deal done, I can toss in my regrettable offseason swooning over him, too.

   4. Red Voodooin Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5711318)
If it helps get the deal done, I can toss in my regrettable offseason swooning over him, too.


The Yankees may demand that we also toss in your multi-year mancrush on pedestrian Braves starter Julio Tehran, too.
   5. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5711334)
The Yankees may demand that we also toss in your multi-year mancrush on pedestrian Braves starter Julio Tehran, too.


Can do... My Hee Sop Choi love could also provide veteran leadership.

I'll even toss in the lottery ticket of my bemoaning the loss of Ryan Flaherty in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.
   6. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5711340)
Think they'd be interested in a slightly used "Free Jason DuBois!!"?
   7. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5711346)
I want to get the deal done, but if we're gonna overpay - then I feel like the Yankees might need to toss in the promise of Manny Banuelos and the high ceiling of Jesus Montero, too.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5711348)
This is pretty crazy. Chatwood is quite expensive (~$32M left for the rest of this year ad the next two), Gray is not (pro-rated remainder of $6.5M, with no future guarantees). Even on that alone, the Yankees should pass.

But more importantly, Gray has stunk, but he still looks like a major league pitcher: 8.44 K/9, 3.87 BB, 1.09 HR/9. Chatwood is walking almost 8 batters per 9.
   9. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5711365)
I feel like the Yankees might need to toss in the promise of Manny Banuelos and the high ceiling of Jesus Montero, too.
And Greg Bird!

Too soon?
   10. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5711367)
This is pretty crazy. Chatwood is quite expensive (~$32M left for the rest of this year ad the next two), Gray is not (pro-rated remainder of $6.5M, with no future guarantees). Even on that alone, the Yankees should pass.

But more importantly, Gray has stunk, but he still looks like a major league pitcher: 8.44 K/9, 3.87 BB, 1.09 HR/9. Chatwood is walking almost 8 batters per 9.
Think of it as Gleybereparations.
   11. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:59 PM (#5711374)
But more importantly, Gray has stunk, but he still looks like a major league pitcher: 8.44 K/9, 3.87 BB, 1.09 HR/9. Chatwood is walking almost 8 batters per 9.

You're not wrong - and that's why I called out the $ part in the intro - plus Gray has been a better pitcher so far in his career. But there are positives for Chatwood too outside of the walks*, he's at 8.01 K/9, 8.1 H/9, and 0.8 HR/9.

The idea at least is that pitch selection and choice appear to be negatively affecting both guys and both are having career worst years, and it isn't that big of a stretch that the teams' may shoulder some of that blame and the other team might be a better fit for the apparent pitching philosophy. TFA and the excerpt both say as much also.

*That's the ultimate "besides that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?" of all time
   12. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5711375)
Where are we on firing Chatwood into the sun? Is that on hold now, pending talks about Gray?
   13. Batman Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5711377)
Where are we on firing Chatwood into the sun?
Our Sun? We can't risk him messing that up. Maybe another star.
   14. Red Voodooin Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5711378)
Where are we on firing Chatwood into the sun?

If the sun is playing hardball with the negotiations, I'd be happy to toss Justin Wilson into the package to sweeten the pot.
   15. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5711379)
Where are we on firing Chatwood into the sun? Is that Plan B now, if we can't get this deal done?


We throw in Chasen Shreve and split the costs?
   16. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:15 PM (#5711387)
Our Sun? We can't risk him messing that up.
What's he gonna do, walk the sun? I think Smashmouth pretty convincingly ruled that out as a possibility.
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5711389)
If the sun is playing hardball with the negotiations, I'd be happy to toss Justin Wilson into the package to sweeten the pot.
Ya know, I have to reluctantly admit that Wilson hasn't been that bad overall this year. It's just the foaming diarrhea he gets in high-leverage situations from time to time.
   18. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5711394)
This is a week old, but Wilson's diarrhea has been less frequent this year.
   19. RJ in TO Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5711398)
You're not wrong - and that's why I called out the $ part in the intro - plus Gray has been a better pitcher so far in his career. But there are positives for Chatwood too outside of the walks*, he's at 8.01 K/9, 8.1 H/9, and 0.8 HR/9.
That 8.01 K/9 translates to 19.3% of batters he's faced. The NL as a whole is at 22.4%, so that's really not a positive for him.
   20. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5711402)
What's the K rate for just SP?

The larger point is that he's hard to hit, he just obviously has no control whatsoever.
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5711407)
This is a week old, but Wilson's diarrhea has been less frequent this year.
Eh, it looks like he ate some bad sushi or something right around June 15.
   22. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5711408)
Our Sun? We can't risk him messing that up. Maybe another star.


It's cute that you think he actually manage to hit, largest object in our universe though it is.

More likely, he misses and begins orbiting like a Haley's Comet.
   23. RJ in TO Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5711411)
What's the K rate for just SP?
About 21.7%. Relievers are at about 23.3%. So he's still below average in K-rate, even when compared against only starters.
   24. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5711435)
Thanks.

He's K-rate is up - a career high even. But that's really just more of how he's probably not that good of a pitcher, even before whatever this year is.
   25. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:59 PM (#5711439)
More likely, he misses and begins orbiting like a Haley's Comet.


Chatwood is coming ! GoT Theme
   26. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:19 PM (#5711456)
More likely, he misses and begins orbiting like a Haley's Comet.
Which he would be able to do for maybe a couple of innings before inevitably careening off path and slamming into the earth, causing the extinction of the human race.

So I guess we should probably trade him for Gray instead.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5711476)
*That's the ultimate "besides that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?" of all time

Fun fact time. Chatwood currently has the 14th highest BB/9 of any pitcher in history with >80 IP.

Ahead of him are two seasons by Tommy Byrnes where he walked 9.4 and 8.2 per 9. In both those seasons, he was better than league average in ERA (ERA+ of 102 and 109 respecively) and in the 8.2 year, he won 15 games.
   28. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5711489)
His half season with the Cubs has raised his BB/9 by almost half a walk (4.2 before here, 4.6 now). That's not easy to do.
   29. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:16 PM (#5711493)
Which he would be able to do for maybe a couple of innings before inevitably careening off path and slamming into the earth, causing the extinction of the human race.


True, but it would take forever to arrive.

There would be plenty of time to crack interstellar travel, find a new habitable planet, move the entire earth ecosystem there, and probably even have time to jet back to earth if someone forgot their wallet or something.
   30. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:31 PM (#5711498)
Our Sun? We can't risk him messing that up. Maybe another star.

It's cute that you think he actually manage to hit, largest object in our universe though it is.

More likely, he misses and begins orbiting like a Haley's Comet.

If you think our sun is the largest object in the universe, you are off by at least 12 orders of magnitude.
   31. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:36 PM (#5711500)
If you think our sun is the largest object in the universe, you are off by at least 12 orders of magnitude.


I meant to say solar system... Chatwood's control is so bad, it has impacted my typing skills.
   32. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:54 PM (#5711506)
If you think our sun is the largest object in the universe, you are off by at least 12 orders of magnitude.
Indeed. I assume the real answer for that is Brian Duensing's slider as it appears to batters, right?
   33. Charles S., looking 4 band-aids instead of dreams Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5711871)
Where are we on firing Chatwood into the sun?
Our Sun? We can't risk him messing that up. Maybe another star.


That's the idea. If he's aiming toward our sun, it's only the other stars that are in danger.
   34. Spahn Insane Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5711967)
If I’m the Cubs, I gladly admit my mistake, eat the difference between Gray’s contract and Chatwood’s and see what happens.

I don’t know why the Yankees would do this, of course, though it’d be fun to see the reception Chatwood gets from the New York fans and press.
   35. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5711979)
That's the idea. If he's aiming toward our sun, it's only the other stars that are in danger.


The earthlings have launched an attack by firing a projectile at us! Wait... no, it's heading to a different star... no... wait, it IS headed towards us... Maybe... It's moving very slowly though. But look at the spin rate of it! The earthlings have developed spin rate capabilities beyond ours!
   36. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5711992)
The earthlings have launched an attack by firing a projectile at us! Wait... no, it's heading to a different star... no... wait, it IS headed towards us... Maybe... It's moving very slowly though. But look at the spin rate of it! The earthlings have developed spin rate capabilities beyond ours!
"What are our plans for defense or counterattack, General?"

"First we must ensure that our space gloves are tight enough. Without freshly tightened gloves, we are helpless."

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