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Monday, October 11, 2010

Will Carroll: Statheads just don’t get it.

In which Will Carroll viciously attacks a strawman.

The Phillies are headed deeper into the playoffs and somewhere in their front office, they have a guy that understands the most advanced numbers, has Fangraphs bookmarked, and will help Ruben Amaro this offseason. The players? They just have their big paychecks, big houses, and might someday sit where Joe Morgan or Mitch Williams is sitting now. The statheads? Unless they find their story or their storyteller, right where they are now.

Bill James was that storyteller for a while, but when he stopped being a thinker and started enjoying being a guru, the movement lost. Me? I was never one that followed and now, Prospectus in my rear view, I can easily reject that false god. I’m not rejecting facts, just the inability to tell a story, see beyond a spreadsheet, or acknowledge that other people have some things to teach me, whether it’s a scout, a Trainer, or a writer who’s been watching ball games since before VORP was a twinkle in Keith Woolner’s eye.

Delicious Cake Posted: October 11, 2010 at 07:23 PM | 120 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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   101. RJ in TO Posted: October 12, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3662322)
Actually, it's probably degenerate into an endless stream of ######## about the Ghost Hunter, with the occasional comment about Belgian beers.
   102. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: October 12, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3662329)
Actually, it's probably degenerate into an endless stream of ######## about the Ghost Hunter, with the occasional comment about Belgian beers.


What would be wrong with that? That sounds like the makings of a quality operation.
   103. RJ in TO Posted: October 12, 2010 at 07:37 PM (#3662331)
What would be wrong with that? That sounds like the makings of a quality operation.

Wait, did you think I was complaining? I'd greatly enjoy you cataloging your suffering as Shootette watches her favorite programs.
   104. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 12, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3662385)
Until statheads stop worrying about decimal places, litmus tests, and passive-aggressive stands against the status quo, they’ll lose out to good stories, marketing, and simplicity.
Statheads need to “stop making sense” and start making strides. Until then, they’ll be like the indie rock they all seem to listen to.


You know, if he didn't do so well at his injury analysis, I'd ridicule him daily. As it stands, I have no reason to follow him anymore, especially given his repeated asshattery and pedantic but unsuccessful attempt at skewering Tango a while back.
   105. Justin T's horse was fast as polished steel Posted: October 12, 2010 at 08:34 PM (#3662394)
That was Sheehan, no?
   106. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 12, 2010 at 08:37 PM (#3662397)
I don't have a clue what Carroll thinks the post-sabermetric movement world is supposed to look like.


Imagine a boot stamping on Joe Morgan's face - forever.
   107. The Good Face Posted: October 12, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3662410)
Actually, it's probably degenerate into an endless stream of ######## about the Ghost Hunter, with the occasional comment about Belgian beers.


What would be wrong with that? That sounds like the makings of a quality operation.


I would actually read that.
   108. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 12, 2010 at 09:24 PM (#3662435)
That was Sheehan, no?


You're right. I mixed that up with something else.

For those without subscriptions, his comments in the link include gems like "Please quit being intellectually dishonest."
   109. rr Posted: October 12, 2010 at 10:23 PM (#3662456)
Hmmm. I wonder how many followers I would get if I started tweeting. Who among you have the courage to follow me?


I'm there, if you add "dumbass cutesy stuff about your cats" and "jokes about Ryan's mom" to the Ghost Hunters/Belgian beer stuff.

BTW Shooty, I am going to a conference in Maryland this weekend and am meeting JC, Andy, and kevin. A good time will be had by all.
   110. rr Posted: October 12, 2010 at 10:31 PM (#3662461)
Here is a recent Drunk Hulk tweet:

COURTENEY COX SINGLE AGAIN! YOU CAN NO START FIRE WITH NO SPARK! THIS GUN FOR HIRE! EVEN IF DRUNK HULK JUST DANCE IN DARK!

___

I think "Drunk Hulk" would make a nice replacement to compensate for the loss of Cookie Monster here at BTF.
   111. KJOK Posted: October 12, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3662477)
I think there's a lot of over-analysis here. Caroll primarily seems to be venting frustration about the rejection of his vision of how best to monetize BP, as he and Shehan apparently 'lost' the battle for BP's future, and BP is going back to its more hardcore sabermetric roots. He thinks he's lost out on some ontold riches because BP didn't go the 'right' direction of being less analytical and more story based.
   112. TomH Posted: October 12, 2010 at 11:48 PM (#3662499)
..and to add to Ken's #113, maybe we should look for the kernels of truth hidden in the diatribe. Focusing more on story-telling, come across less strident, especially when it comes to external rather than internal dicussions. Problem with BBTF is it feels like its internal, but it spills over and the non-stathead world sees us, well, like if someone came across the poorer moments of your extended family at a holiday gathering.
   113. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 13, 2010 at 12:46 AM (#3662586)
That's (snarky style) the natural writing style of both Gary Huckabay and Chris(tina) Kahrl. Two of the most important figures in the early days of BP. They had an awful lot to do with setting the tone.


So they're the ones I should curse?
   114. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 13, 2010 at 01:02 AM (#3662615)
Naw. I'd probably tweet a couple of times, get bored with it immediately, and then let my account go dormant. This was how facebook worked for me. I think I was active for two days.


I did it for a while, then they blocked it at work and I'd rather waste their time than my personal time. Maury Brown said that it opened doors for him. All I really did was link my blogposts and banter with Craig Calcaterra and Kid Gleeman. I think I got up to 50 followers, but some of them were boys. Others were like the UFL (I mentioned them in a Tweet and they became followers) or the US Chess Federation (I called something a chess match and they signed on as followers.)

Will thinks statheads can't get an audience? He should have seen my blog. I got less hits than Mario Mendoza.
   115. Andere Richtingen Posted: October 13, 2010 at 01:09 AM (#3662626)
Wow. I just RTFA. That was a sad exhibition of bitterness. Say what you want about Carroll, there was a time when he was on the cutting edge. Now he's just jockeying for position as a naysayer, clearly for the attention. That is, if I have managed to figure out his point(s) from this type-straight-to-the-butcher-paper screed.
   116. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: October 13, 2010 at 01:10 AM (#3662629)
I got less hits than Mario Mendoza.


The Beastie Boys must have used this line in one of their songs.
   117. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 13, 2010 at 01:15 AM (#3662638)
So when did Will Carroll actually leave Prospectus? Anybody know the specific reasons why he left, other than his general (and sudden) dislking of Sabermetric thinking?




Will's side of the story

BP's farewell

I'm surprised there were multiple threads about Mariotti's leaving AOL and not one about Carroll leaving BPro.
   118. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 13, 2010 at 01:27 AM (#3662663)
That is, if I have managed to figure out his point(s) from this type-straight-to-the-butcher-paper screed.


I think his point was that sabermetrics would be more popula if the evangelizers were less angry and better writers. Then Mark Armour said that this point would have come across better if it were written by a less angry, better writer. Me? I'm just trying to figure out how to link Bobby Flay to Seattle Slew without using Skip Bayless as a link.
   119. Repoz Posted: October 13, 2010 at 03:12 AM (#3662859)
I'm surprised there were multiple threads about Mariotti's leaving AOL and not one about Carroll leaving BPro.

Since BPro changed their newsthingee updater to another time...I never read it and just delete it.

Plus...no one ever sends them in.
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