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Thursday, December 19, 2013

Williams: WHAT IF ... Granderson had stayed healthy in 2013?

Remember, everything might have turned out different had Granderson stayed healthy. Cano would have had protection in the lineup, and who knows, the Yankees might have actually reached the playoffs. At his best, Granderson is the type of player who can have a WAR of over 5. Add five wins to the Yankees last season and you’ve got a team competing closely for the Wild Card. As cliché as it sounds, making the playoffs for the Yankees would have changed everything.

It’s possible Granderson would have re-signed with the Yankees, along with Robinson Cano. Fans—and the front office—would have appreciated the effort from such an injury-ridden roster, and the Yanks would have been less worried about making a splash (like they did with Ellsbury and Beltran) and more concerned with re-signing their key pieces that brought them success in 2013.

If Granderson had hit 30 home runs in 2013, that would have been 114 home runs in three seasons. He would have been the best power hitter on the market, and arguably the most valuable outfielder. He also would have seen a guy like Hunter Pence get a five-year, $90 million deal from the Giants and would have targeted that kind of money and more. And given that the Yankees signed Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million contract, Granderson might have been able to take advantage of the Yankees’ tendency to reward the pieces they covet.

...So, if you want my final answer to today’s “what if,” it’s an interesting one: Curtis Granderson would be an even richer man, and I would suspect that he and Robinson Cano might still be in pinstripes, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran would still be the enemy. Oh, and the Yankees may have made the playoffs last year.

Thanks to Carl.

Repoz Posted: December 19, 2013 at 07:24 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. DanG Posted: December 19, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4620972)
If a picture paints a thousand words, Then why can't I paint you?
   2. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4621020)
WHAT IF...everyone else had all their injuries but my team didn't?
   3. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:18 PM (#4621037)
WHAT IF...everyone else had all their injuries but my team didn't?


Yeah, I was thinking along those same lines.

Anyway, if we're going to look at this hypothetical, I think there's a much better chance that even in a fully healthy year, 2012-2013 Granderson was never going to to return to being a 5 WAR player. His fielding had declined and his bat seemed to be trending downward too. The question I have now is how big of a loss was the Yanks' trade for him now that he's finished with them?
   4. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4621043)

Remember, everything might have turned out different had Granderson stayed healthy. Cano would have had protection in the lineup, and who knows, the Yankees might have actually reached the playoffs. At his best, Granderson is the type of player who can have a WAR of over 5. Add five wins to the Yankees last season and you’ve got a team competing closely for the Wild Card.

Well, he did produce 1.1 WAR in the time he played. And they got 1.4 WAR out of Soriano after they traded for him, which I assume they might not have done if Granderson had been playing. So if he had been healthy for the full year 2-3 more wins is a better estimate than 5.
   5. thetailor Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:58 PM (#4621099)
I'm not going to kill the guy for his thesis like #2 and #3 -- playing "what if" is fun. #4 is totally right that the 5 WAR, if Granderson was good for it, wasn't replacing 0 WAR, so the gap is more like 2-3 wins.

Where I think the article is interesting is when it talks about Granderson's free agent contract. I was wondering myself what he'd get.

God, what a horribly written article to be posted on YES though, isn't it? (kind of like this comment)
   6. sinicalypse Posted: December 19, 2013 at 05:48 PM (#4621229)
what if the red sox never traded babe ruth to the yankees? what if they kept the babe as a pitcher for his entire career? what if babe never had the impact on the yankees' lineup that he had in the 1920s? we could be looking at a world where the sawx have 30 championships and the yankees went 80+ years without a title.

seriously, if we're gonna do what-ifs why start/end with granderson?
   7. madvillain Posted: December 19, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4621266)
Decent little thought experiment but if my aunt was my uncle she'd have balls.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4621284)
Decent little thought experiment but if my aunt was my uncle she'd have balls.

If she can keep them down in the strike zone, the Twins would like to speak with your aunt.
   9. Cblau Posted: December 19, 2013 at 11:08 PM (#4621422)
If only Cano had had protection in the lineup, he might not have been assassinated.

If only Cano had had protection in the lineup, his OPS+ might not have dropped from 148 all the way down to 145.

Protection. Jeez, Louise.
   10. McCoy Posted: December 19, 2013 at 11:26 PM (#4621430)
seriously, if we're gonna do what-ifs why start/end with granderson?

What if the Cubs had signed Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams like they should have been able to do back in the 30's?
   11. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 19, 2013 at 11:54 PM (#4621435)
   12. madvillain Posted: December 19, 2013 at 11:56 PM (#4621436)
If she can keep them down in the strike zone, the Twins would like to speak with your aunt.


Ha, tragically as a White Sox fan I'm hoping our new boys Abreu, Davidson and Eaton can mash some Twinkies this year on their way to 80 or so wins. The division is pretty bad.
   13. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: December 20, 2013 at 12:03 AM (#4621438)
If only Woody had gone straight to the police, this would never have happened.

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