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1. JJ1986 Posted: February 25, 2013 at 02:02 PM (#4375690)The advanced stats folks may not hate the Orioles, but they hate stories like the Orioles and results like the Orioles put up in 2012. They entirely resent the fact that the results of actual baseball games trump sabermetrics' pythagorean relationship, and resent the excitement people feel over the results of actual baseball games.
You really need to get out of the house more. Talk a nice walk or something. Sheesh.
The 2013 Orioles are entirely unlike to replicate the 2012 Orioles' ridiculous records in both extra inning and 1 run games, which means that they are extremely likely to regress like crazy this year. Pointing that out does not mean that either O's fans should not have enjoyed last year nor that the one pointing that out hates baseball and apple pie and butterflies. Well, maybe butterflies.
No, they, by which I mean we, don't. I love the Orioles and think they're really no longer a bad team, but they're also not really a GOOD team, and I think a just-OK team could easily finish last in the 2013 AL East.
But if they won 90 again? I'd love every second of it, just like I did last year. All the more so because, thanks to my knowledge of math, I understand that I have no right to expect it.
The best test for that will be when the Red Sox overachieve their projections by as much as the Orioles did last year.
I do think that what really galls lots of stereotyped statheads is the emphasis placed by fans and the MSM on the results of the postseason. It's an understandable reaction by the statheads, or by fans of teams like the 01 Mariners, but there are times when it just comes off as sour grapes and pettiness.
They replaced A-Rod with Youk, and Soriano with Rivera. The other spots.... not so much.
That said, I'd bet against the O's finishing last this year.
So clearly flawed that the same prediction was on the money each of the previous 14 seasons.
Well, in theory they should get more Gardner who will help replace Swisher somewhat even if the shape of his value is different and perhaps less quantifiable.
They replaced A-Rod with Youk, and Soriano with Rivera. The other spots.... not so much.
Youk is coming off a 99 OPS+ season where he slumped badly in September/October. He's young enough and could wind up being a steal, but he's no A-Rod, not even the 2012 112 OPS+ version.
Mo is Mo, but Mo's also 43 and also coming off major surgery. Soriano put up a 185 ERA+ last year, and if Mo matches that this time around it'll be the most impressive year he'll ever have had.
My worry about Gardner isn't his value when he's healthy, since his fielding and baserunning bring a lot to the table. My worry about Gardner is that one awkward swing and he could be right back on the DL. But maybe I've just been thinking too much about Nick Johnson.
Well the Yanks had a pythag of 95-67, while the O's had a pythag of 82-80, so presumably the Yanks have further to fall for one.
Swapping Youk for A-Rod isn't much of a drop off. Granderson is only out til May. Martin was only a 1.5 WAR player last year, so while that's a drop off, its not a huge one. Soriano is being replaced by Mo, and we'll see how his responds at age 42 or whatever. Also Gardner and Hafner replace Ibanez and Chavez FWIW.
I like the Yanks pitching staff a lot better than the O's. The O's has more upside, but they're a lot less reliable. There's also the possibility the O's awesome bullpen won't be quite as good as last year.
"Last place" also probably sounds worse than it will be. I think the AL East could be squished together with the last place team no more than 15 games behind the first place team.
For me the bottom line with the Yanks is that I've never seen so many "ifs" that are all attached to players on the downside of their careers. It's not just three or four players who'll have to reverse the aging process to maintain their previous productivity, it's more like about 80% of the roster.
I like the Yanks pitching staff a lot better than the O's. The O's has more upside, but they're a lot less reliable. There's also the possibility the O's awesome bullpen won't be quite as good as last year.
Again, just look at the ages of those two staffs and ask yourself which one is more likely to break down as the season wears on. I hope I'm wrong, but if the Yanks are still in serious contention in mid-August I'll be shocked and surprised as I haven't been since the days of the '89 O's.
The Yanks are kind of a mess at catcher, and I don't think Ichiro will replace Swisher's production, but the other three you mentioned have replacement in players who weren't on the team last year:
ARod --> Youkilis
Granderson --> Gardner
Soriano ---> Rivera
Fortunately, that's not a problem for the Yankees.
So seven percent of the time it's off by Black Swan magnitudes?
In Vegas or the financial markets, that's an excellent recipe for ruin.
Hasn't this been the case for the last 15 years? The Yankees have been an old team for so long that I've stopped predicting age would catch up to them. They've had a magic wand.
I don't think they'll be in serious contention at all, I just think the O's are the worst team in that division. The Yanks are probably only a few games better, but I do think they are better.
This several times over. 77 wins could wins up being last place in this division while 90 could win it.
In Vegas or the financial markets, that's an excellent recipe for ruin.
Actually in Vegas or the stock market, if you're only off by Black Swan magnitudes 7% of the time you're a fricking genius, and every single person in the world would pay you any amount of money you asked for your secrets.
Hasn't this been the case for the last 15 years? The Yankees have been an old team for so long that I've stopped predicting age would catch up to them. They've had a magic wand.
If this were just a case of A-Rod continuing his downward trend from 2009 through 2012, or Teixeira gradually winding down semi-gracefully, it wouldn't bother me much. But in all those years you're mentioning I've never seen a roster that's been (a) so depleted by attrition, injury and age; and (b) so completely UN-replaced with A-level players, either from free agency, trades or the farm system.
To be blunt, the Yankees' offseason strategy this year has been pretty much like that of a small market team whose main investment has been in a few truckloads of rabbits' feet and rosary beads. That's harsh, but where are the facts that contradict it?
Actually, I think A-Rod's 2012 production sounds eminently plausible for Youkilis (120 games of .355/.430 OBP/SLG). FWIW, the projection systems have him at around that level, too.
Oh come on, even you must know that this is a straw man.
I read plenty of saber articles re: the Orioles last year, and not once did I see an example of this. You dislike saber analysis either generally or in this specific case? Fine, but my personal take is that whenever someone has to start demonizing to make his or her point, someone is probably lacking in actual, substantive reasoning.
Even if that's true (and it isn't), this isn't Vegas or the financial markets. It's sports, and I'm reasonably certain that most (if not all) sabermetric types understand the nature of random variance -- in fact, they shout about it from the rooftops every time some nitwit broadcaster suggests pinch hitting for some guy who's lifetime 1 for 7 against some pitcher.
So if I give you a gun with 15 chambers and one has a bullet, you're comfortable putting it to your head?
Reading the twisted analogies and illogical leaps you have to make is, and always will be, hilarious.
That's how Vegas and the stock market work? Jeesh, I've been doing it wrong.
I'm really surprised they weren't really aggressive this winter. They won 93 games with a team full of question marks and holes. Seems like they could've found some bargains out there without having to sacrifice the future much. I'd feel a lot better about the O's if they had Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn in LF instead of Nate McLouth, and if they had Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson or even Shaun Marcum in their rotation instead of Jair Jurrjens.
Hell, it was the same opinion EVERYBODY had. It's not like there was this big pre-season dispute about the Orioles, they were going to finish last. Stat guys, scout guys, gambling guys, fans, writers, broadcasters...there was a pretty good consensus on what the 2012 Orioles would be. The consensus was wrong but that doesn't mean it didn't exist.
Sweeeeeeet. Pencils in Sox for 110 wins.
Me: So-and-so team was terrible at extra innings games last year?
BBTFer: What? They were 10-1 in extras last year.
Me: So if I give you a gun with 11 chambers and one has a bullet, you're comfortable putting it to your head?
Vegas had them at 69.5.
No, but then the amount of risk I'm willing to accept regarding, say, my life is rather different than the risk I'll accept over, say, investments, which is different still from the amount of risk I'm willing to accept from baseball analysis.
But hey, don't let me ruin your...whatever the hell it is you're doing, here.
So if I give you a gun with 162 chambers and 52 have bullets, you're comfortable putting it to your head?
In fairness to the backlash, the divergence in opinion in question was about the Orioles after they won a bunch of games.
I suppose the thing would be bigger than a Gatling gun.
I'm a Cub fan so ... yeah.
Indeed. The other headlines on the cover: "Stephen Curry is the NBA's greatest shooter ever" and "Andrew Luck has better legs than RG3"
You're just being silly. Using the same analogy, betting on the Orioles to make the playoffs over the last 15 years would be the equivalent of putting a gun with 15 chambers and 14 bullets to your head.
As someone who considers himself an advanced stat folk (and has posted a statistical article here), and who spent last season posting lengthy daily writeups of the preceding day's most exciting baseball game in the Dugout thread (many of which prominently featured the Orioles)... I think you may be painting with a rather broad brush here.
Also, I know better than to touch the trigger of a gun that I'm aiming at my own head.
Well, what the hell do you think Orioles' fans have felt like for 14 out of the last 15 years?
That would look just too cute for words.
And I know better than to aim a damn gun at my own head in the first place.
McLouth is the 4th OF, if Reimold's healthy (big if. Huge if.) Rotation is Arietta, Chen, Hammel, probably Gonzales, and then 10 guys competing to hold the fifth slot until Dylan Bundy's midseason call-up. Duquette loves himself some pitching depth, but didn't want to give BMac $10 million (not that I wouldn't enjoy in-game interviews with Mrs. McCarthy on a regular basis).
Baltimore's biggest question (aside from the health of Reimold) is at 2b, where Roberts? Really? But even there, Schoop might be ready for a midseason call-up. I agree the O's are probably an 85-win-ish team, and could do better if Machado really improves at 3rd, or worse if Reimold and Markakis go down again.
Figure the bullpen will regress, but the starters will be better than last year, so pitching overall should stay about the same. Also, the O's are a good-to-excellent defensive team, and I don't think you can say that about the Yankees or Red Sox quite as easily.
I love the 2013 AL East.
I don't like the Red Sox or the Orioles and maybe not the Yankees, either, but the possibility of the Blue Jays winning and a NYY/BOS team OR the 2012 BAL playoff team finishing last is intriguing.
When is the last time this might have been the most interesting division top to bottom?
In Rivera We Trust. No worries.
Single greatest poorly thought out example in the history of BTF. This phrase should have its own page on our wiki.
This was covered the other day:
What kind of person doubts Bill James and Ernest Hemingway?
To get back to the Orioles, I won't be surprised to see them finish ahead of the Red Sox.
Speaking of people who put guns in the vicinity of their heads & didn't have much more to say after that.
Too soon.
The Orioles run-differential was a lot better as the season progressed, FWIW.
Of course the Yankees' probably going to be their worst since 08 or even 00, and the Red Sox isn't exactly looking that much better, so the other O's Jays better make good of this window of opportunity (though with the contract situation of those two, that window may be pretty wide.)
Has anyone noticed that SBB has been absent from the thread since he posted this? You don't think...?
# of times the word Orioles appears in this thread: 59
# of times the word Yankees appears in this thread: 19
Mostly luck, with perhaps a little bit of talent distribution factored in (such as a front-loaded bullpen, one that's equally good at preserving narrow leads and turning small deficits into large ones).
He was just betting on his statistical age projection like they do in Vegas and Wall Street.
RLYW has them last in the ALEast, 12th in the AL, 23rd in MLB
Anyone see Brian Roberts smack 2 doubles yesterday?
The weakness of a model with a 7% risk of ruin wasn't really coming across, so it seemed apt to use a zesty example.
For all the veinpopping handwringing around here, you'd think I said the actor who really got inside Lincoln's head was John Wilkes Booth or something.
It's actually just a reference to a little PECOTA infographic in the middle that has the O's at 74-88. At that record, PECOTA may very well have the O's as >50% to finish in the cellar.
ZiPS has them around .500 and much closer to the rest of the pack (and less than 50%) but the ZiPS stuff (except for some fantasy ODDIBE stuff in this issue) will be in the official Baseball Preview issue. Still sorting out what ZiPS stuff will be in the magazine and what will be on the site.
The focus in this issue is more of an overview over what stats are being used in different sports, Miller breaking down what WAR is (you guys all know it, but the vast majority of the public does not know how it's calculated), and some tidbits here and there, plus some info on the MIT/Sloan conference.
So if I give John Wilkes Booth a gun with 15 chambers, and they each have a bullet, you're comfortable sitting in a crowded theater?
The weakness of a model with a 7% risk of ruin wasn't really coming across, so it seemed apt to use a zesty example.
But (a) does it actually have a 7% "risk of ruin"? You can't just look at the results of one team to determine the accuracy of the model, you have to look at all 30 teams. (b) Would 7% be any worse than other models? Who got the Orioles right last year?
But (a) does it actually have a 7% "risk of ruin"? You can't just look at the results of one team to determine the accuracy of the model, you have to look at all 30 teams. (b) Would 7% be any worse than other models? Who got the Orioles right last year?
The 7% risk of ruin argument doesn't make much sense - even with *perfect* knowledge of how good a team "truly" is, you'd still *expect* to still be horribly off a good percentage of the time. And perfect knowledge could hardly be called a ruinous model.
Yes, but Keith Law actually does hate the Orioles :)
-- MWE
I picked the Orioles to miss the playoffs last year, and am still alive. I think your example may have a bit too much zest.
Keith Law molests collies.
"Contract situation of those two"? The Red Sox certainly have plenty of issues, but too much money in long term contracts isn't even close to being an issue since The Punto Trade. The Red Sox have two players with guaranteed contracts for 2015: Buchholz at $12.5M and Victorino at $13M.
Will you be posting a spreadsheet of the projections?
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