Let's see. The Pirates, a terribly inept organization, are dealing with the Indians, a savvy one. Ceteris paribus, doesn't Bayes' Law mean we should assume the Indians are taking the Pirates to the cleaners?

Why on earth are the Pirates trading for Cliff Lee?

God, what a terrible deal for the Pirates. If you aren't getting any upside back in the deal, why would you trade someone like Bay in the first place? With Lee's salary, they wouldn't even save any money...

Please kill this with fire, and don't let it stand back up unless one of the names is Miller or Lofgren.

I <strike>like</strike> love it from the Indians' standpoint. Gutierrez is a fourth outfielder, Lee (no relation) is a malcontent with lousy peripherals, and the backup catcher swap is...well...a backup catcher swap.

Whether this happens or not, Cliff Lee won't be back with the Indians next year. Bank on that.

Man, I can't believe that Omar couldn't get Bay in exchange for Milledge. Buying low on Bay is probably the smartest move any GM can make this offseason. Any reason(s) to think he won't rebound?

This deal is fraught with uncertainty on both sides. What's wrong with Cliff Lee and what's wrong with Jason Bay, both are under performing. What is Gutierrez's upside? Not that long ago, he was a prized prospect in the Dodger system? Has Kelly Shoppach been a back-up catcher simply because of being in the wrong place at the wrong time (i.e., stuck behind Varitek in Boston and then stuck behind Martinez in Cleveland)? Most scouts still consider Shoppach a starting caliber catcher while Paulino is clearly a back-up. The only question in my mind, is why would the Pirates need Lee irrespective of his future performance (other than maybe being a trade chip for another deal, he is after all young and left handed and has had success in the past). I wouldn't be surprised to see this deal morph into something more since the Tribe could use D. Marte to further strenthen their pen and their system is deep and contains youngsters that the Pirates could build around.

I really thought Huntington would be an improvement. If these trade rumors have any validity, he is not.

I dunno. Gutierrez was 24 last year, can play center, and has real power. Always having one, and exactly one, star-caliber player on the team is an important piece of the Pirates' consistent-profits-by-losing strategy. Bay just had a lost season, and ownership is probably antsy now that they'll lose the star. I think the Pirates see Gutierrez as the best guy to gamble on (by trading Bay for him) becoming their next star, as they did with Giles-for-Bay in the first place.

God, what a terrible deal for the Pirates. If you aren't getting any upside back in the deal, why would you trade someone like Bay in the first place? With Lee's salary, they wouldn't even save any money...

I am normally on board with the Pirates-bashing in here, but this strikes me as a terrific deal for the Pirates. Lee is a year removed from being a league average-plus lefty starter... and he's the third best player in the acquisition for Pittsburgh! Shoppach immediately becomes a top-half NL catcher, and Gutierrez has no upside? Really? Plus power, can play CF, turning 25?

Paulino has several performance issues, and there's a decent chance Bay is finished as a star, though clearly, he could rebound.

I'm very surprised the Pirate contingent on here doesn't like this- are you sure you guys aren't just used to reacting the same way to every trade? It would be understandable- Pavlov's dog would have been a good Pirates fan.

I hope I'm right for your sake. You guys deserve a break already.

Bay is nearly certain to rebound next year. His problems in '07 were the result of getting his knee cut over the offseason, and it's supposedly back to 100% now. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he'll go back to his mashing ways in '08.

Lee's peripherals have been in decline for several years now. He was hurt for part of last year, pitched like crap when he was healthy, and wasn't even included on the Indians' postseason roster. He's due to make a guaranteed $10.5M over the next two years, only $2.75M less than Bay himself. He's extremely risky, and even in the best-possible scenario his upside is as a #3/#4 starter. Actually, I lie. The BEST scenario involves flipping him onto some other sucker's roster for something of value, but why put yourself through that when you can just get a prospect from the Indians instead?

Shoppach has a career line of .241/.292/.413. That's OK for a catcher, but certainly nothing to get excited about, and he'll be 29 next year. He appears to be capable of serving as a placeholder starter, but not much more.

Franklin Gutierrez is, basically, a young Juan Encarnacion. Decent (but not exceptional) tools, impatient, big problems with breaking stuff. Even if he's a legit CF, that doesn't help us much, because we've already got Nate for the present and Cutch for the future. We have bigger needs.

When you're trading an inexpensive big-time player (as the Pirates are in this deal), you need to get back at least one player with big-time upside back in return. None of the guys on the Indians' side of the ledger in this proposal really meet that description. They need to get a Lofgren or a Miller or a Cabrera into the deal, even if it means getting fewer bodies back in return.

from ESPN:

10:23 a.m., from Buster Olney
• Trade talks between the Indians and Pirates involving outfielder Jason Bay, left-handed starter Cliff Lee and others are dead.

Pirates fans who are waiting for Miller or Lofgren to be included in a deal are going to be waiting for eternity. Shapiro wouldn't give up Miller for Delmon Young straight up, that's why he wound up going to Minny for Garza. Every fan over values his own but you guys are being ridiculous. Bay's stock has fallen severely and his rebound is far from the certainty that you are portraying it to be. I think Lee, Shoppach and Gutierrez is a haul and hopefully Huntington is smart enough to jump on it.

Bay is nearly certain to rebound next year. His problems in '07 were the result of getting his knee cut over the offseason, and it's supposedly back to 100% now. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he'll go back to his mashing ways in '08.

I can appreciate the downsides of all the players you mentioned, but that is a complete focus on what they can't do. Shoppach, in particular, seems likely to break out if given an every day job. But then again, like bibigon, I'm a Shoppach guy.

But it isn't like Bay improved as the season went on. He hit .237 in the second half with a .393 slugging. He hit .182 in September/October.

Why are you 100% confident that a guy with a bum knee who got worse over the 2007 season will be great in 2008?

Gutierrez isn't really a "legit CF," I should clarify. He's on Bay and Giles' level as an outfielder: A good corner OF that can play center 35 or 40 times a year as the need arises. You'd rather not have him in CF every day, though.

If the Pirates want to trade Bay, they're probably picking the wrong time. It's perfectly possible they called the Dodgers to ask about Matt Kemp, and called the Red Sox to ask about Jacoby Ellsbury, and so forth, and found out that Franklin Gutierrez is the best player whose team is willing to talk about trading him for Jason Bay right now; and then Huntingdon found out that the Indians are only interested if they can also get Cliff Lee moved off the team, and it went from there. I'm pretty sure these talks aren't going to go anywhere.

But, again, Bay's at a very low-value point right now. The Pirates are terrified he's done, and badly need a star player to market as part of their "we're going to win real soon now!" PR strategy, and so are flying around trying to find somebody to trade Bay for that can fit that bill.

When trying to figure out why the Pirates are doing or not doing something, you have to view it through the lenses of their peculiar brand of strategy. That's the only way it makes sense.

Yes, if you assume the goal is to win games, now OR in the future, trading Bay now makes no sense at all. But if you consider that maybe the goal isn't to win games...

10:23 a.m., from Buster Olney
• Trade talks between the Indians and Pirates involving outfielder Jason Bay, left-handed starter Cliff Lee and others are dead.

If you check the catchall thread, there's a report from TSN.ca which says it's a done deal.

I agree with Mick and HM here to a certain extent. Bay's a terrific player, but if anything, this strikes me as a reflex move by the Indians. The Tigers just went out and got a whole lot more dangerous yesterday. It's only natural for the Indians to want to quickly make a move to respond. Shoppach clearly improves the Pirates, and Gutierrez, while not quite Bay, is still a very fine get. If he gets back to even just 2006 levels, Lee would improve the rotation by a fair leap.

That said, Vlad's point about Bay's contract is exactly right. If the Pirates are honestly going to deal Bay, why not throw him out there the way the Marlins did Cabrera? Less than $6 million for 2008, $7.5 for 2009 -- an affordable All-Star who could help near any team has got to be worth at least one excellent prospect, donchathink?

an affordable All-Star who could help near any team has got to be worth at least one excellent prospect, donchathink?

Not coming off a terrible season with a bum knee.

Howard:

I think Bay just wore down as the season progressed. He likely came back too soon and never allowed the knee to heal properly. He clearly couldn't turn on pitches as before.

So much of driving the ball is in the legs. I know Bill Hall's power was sapped when his ankle went kaplooey.

For Vlad and other Pirates fans' sakes I hope Bay rebounds. Only not against the Crew.....

I think Bay just wore down as the season progressed. He likely came back too soon and never allowed the knee to heal properly. He clearly couldn't turn on pitches as before.

So the idea is that with another full offseason, he'd be 100% again? did he have the surgery close to the start of the season? Why wouldn't he wear down again? And it isn;t as if his first half was close to All Star level, either...

I hope he rebounds as well for Pittsburgh. But he needs to rebound for Pittsburgh to be trading an All Star. right now they'd be trading a .247 hitter with a bum knee.

Gutierrez isn't really a "legit CF," I should clarify. He's on Bay and Giles' level as an outfielder: A good corner OF that can play center 35 or 40 times a year as the need arises. You'd rather not have him in CF every day, though.

The Fielding Bible had Gutierrez as the best RF in the ML for 2007. He is far better than Bay or Giles. He played CF most of the time in the minors. He was only moved to a corner because of Sizemore. He is easily a very good ML CF.

"Why wouldn't he wear down again?"

Because the procedure wasn't serious, and the incision has now completely healed?

"But he needs to rebound for Pittsburgh to be trading an All Star."

Fine, then we agree. Rather than trade him for Cleveland's marginal package now, the Pirates should hold him and only deal him when other teams are satisfied that he's back to his old self.

If you check the catchall thread, there's a report from TSN.ca which says it's far from a done deal.

Fixed that for you, Pops.

"Every fan over values his own but you guys are being ridiculous."

Even with last year's struggles included, Bay has a career OPS+ of 130, and he's signed for the next two years at a little over half of what Jose Guillen just got on the free market. He won ROY his first season, and then was an All-Star the next two. Like it or not, that has real value to just about anybody.

If Cleveland doesn't want to include anyone with upside, that's fine. I'd be perfectly happy to walk away, watch him play well for another couple of months, and then test the water again.

Bay had tendonitis in his right knee in Sep and was shut down.

The question is will an offseason of rest fix his knee?

The Fielding Bible had Gutierrez as the best RF in the ML for 2007. He is far better than Bay or Giles. He played CF most of the time in the minors. He was only moved to a corner because of Sizemore. He is easily a very good ML CF.

Thank you, I was just logging in to post something along these lines. Gutierrez is only in RF because of Sizemore. I'm obviously not a scout, but to my eyes, Gutierrez is without exaggeration one of the best defensive outfielders I've ever seen. He's so smooth and so fast, he simply gets to hard hit balls so much quicker than other guys do, and so since he doesn't have to make diving, flashy plays you don't realize how good he is. He'd be a plus defender in CF, I have no doubt -- in fact I think he's better than Sizemore, but they're simply not going to move Sizemore.

For the record, I don't like this deal from the Indians standpoint. Gutierrez + Lee + the downgrade from Shoppach to Paulino is too much to give up on a gamble that Bay will improve on his 2007.

"He is easily a very good ML CF."

Yeah, but nobody has answered my question as to why the Pirates should trade for another CF when they already have several decent ML options and the system's top prospect is a CF at AA. Gutierrez-as-CF has less value to the Pirates than he would to a team that actively needs a CF.

Fixed that for you, Pops.

Gotta love the winter meetings.

Yep, add my voice to the choir: Guti is a centerfielder forced to play a corner, rather than a corner outfielder who can play center. He's probably the best defensive outfielder I've seen in the VWL for a while.

Hmm, I wonder what it would take to bring Bay to Oakland...

I hope Hendry is at least talking about Bay.

What's wrong with Cliff Lee

He's either hurt, not that great, or both.

Lee went through a "dead arm" period shortly after the All-Star break in '04, and had an 8.22 ERA in his last 14 starts that year with 17 home runs allowed in 65.2 IP. The next season, his K/9 fell by about 1.7. In '06, it fell even more and his HR/9 skyrocketed. In '07, his K/9 and HR/9 stayed about the same and his walk rate increased.

Also in '07, he got into a fight with Victor Martinez, which is not something you do if you want to stay popular in the Tribe clubhouse.

I think the guy's damaged goods, be it physically, emotionally, or mentally. He's caught in a vortex of suck, and frankly I think you can stick a fork in him as far as being a good major league starting pitcher. And I think the Indians need to trade him now while he still has value.

I think the guy's damaged goods, be it physically, emotionally, or mentally. He's caught in a vortex of suck

A True Pirate!

In my mind Bay's 2007 is like Aramis Ramirez' 2002 season, (or Beltran's 2005) a good player playing through an injury that dramatically affected his performance, because his team was too shortsighted and stupid to realize that "random bum for 35 games + star for 125 games" was better than star at 75% for 150 games.

There's also the issue that some injuries will get worse if you keep playing, and based on some other posts the Pirates Med staff are not a group I'd want making that call.

Considering where the Pirates were in 2007 shouldn't they have shutdown Bay fro atime and just let Pearce/Nyjer/Rajai play a bit more?

Even with last year's struggles included, Bay has a career OPS+ of 130, and he's signed for the next two years at a little over half of what Jose Guillen just got on the free market. He won ROY his first season, and then was an All-Star the next two. Like it or not, that has real value to just about anybody.

If Cleveland doesn't want to include anyone with upside, that's fine. I'd be perfectly happy to walk away, watch him play well for another couple of months, and then test the water again.

i'd agree with you if the package offered no upside. We disagree on Gutirrez and Shoppach- even Less offers some, though I can see that contract being a real risk for the Pirates.

But I agree with you that even in his reduced state, Bay has value. I disagree that this trade doesn't provide value. And I agree that if he recovers, you get more. However, if he doesn't, you get less.

Why do you believe that he wasn't healed either at the start or end of 2007, but that he will be fully recovered and his old self in 2008?

"Why do you believe that he wasn't healed either at the start or end of 2007, but that he will be fully recovered and his old self in 2008?"

Well, for one, he says that it feels "great", and won't slow him down at all in the spring. I'd assume that he's in a position to know...

"In my mind Bay's 2007 is like Aramis Ramirez' 2002 season, (or Beltran's 2005)..."

Or Kendall's 2001, except that in Kendall's case doing so significantly damaged his career.

Unless my memory is failing me (which is not unusual), Bay's knee problem wasn't with the one he had surgery on. He was having more or less a typical Bay season through the end of May and then fell off a cliff. At about that time there were stories that his other (non-surgery) knee was bothering him, possibly as a result of him favoring the one that had the surgery. He ultimately was shut down due to tendonitis in the "good" knee.

I'd be curious what evidence there is that Gutierrez has "plus power." He's slugged .455, .436 and .434 at the AA, AAA and ML levels. Looks to me like he has OK power for CF and inadequate power for a corner. Add in the poor plate discipline and the Juan Encarnacion comp looks pretty good to me.

I hope Hendry is at least talking about Bay.

Am I nuts for preferring Fukudome?

Well, for one, he says that it feels "great", and won't slow him down at all in the spring. I'd assume that he's in a position to know...

And we both know that the true rarity is the player who complains about his injury, even when we have direct evidence that he's limping on the field.

Look, I hope you're right. I'm not convinced yet.

"Am I nuts for preferring Fukudome?"

Depends what you're looking for, probably. Both are good OBP guys; Fukudome probably has more defense (especially arm), and Bay probably has more over-the-fence power. Bay's going to cost prospects to acquire, while Fukudome is a pure FA, but Fukudome is likely to pull about twice as much in yearly salary.

"Unless my memory is failing me (which is not unusual), Bay's knee problem wasn't with the one he had surgery on."

You could very well be right.

I've no idea about the players involved in this, but it seems to me that Huntington is likely the person with the most knowledge about all of them.

Or Kendall's 2001, except that in Kendall's case doing so significantly damaged his career.

Or when Kris Benson refused to play in order to keep from ruining his career. It's not like the Pirates have a great track record for sitting guys who are hurt.

The Blue Jays will almost certainly pony up something significantly better than what the Indians offered next year, once Bay demonstrates that he is healthy. A bigger question to me is why the Indians lowballed their ex-colleague. If I had a guy I had once worked with, whom I respected, leave for a different place I would hardly begin the new relationship with such an offer unless I expected him to consider it seriously. If they expected him to consider Shoppach, Lee and Gutierrez seriously, what does that say for their view of his savvy? Just makes you think.

"Am I nuts for preferring Fukudome?"

Depends what you're looking for, probably. Both are good OBP guys; Fukudome probably has more defense (especially arm), and Bay probably has more over-the-fence power. Bay's going to cost prospects to acquire, while Fukudome is a pure FA, but Fukudome is likely to pull about twice as much in yearly salary.

Well, I'm looking at this from the Cub fan perspective. The Cubs need OBP, and specifically, they need a RF (or at least, they think they do; I see no reason Soriano couldn't handle it), so I'd sorta prefer Fukudome on his merits (looks like he and Bay both had some injury issues last year), and I'd definitely prefer him all things considered, given the "prospects" versus "tons of cash" costs. The Cubs are short on blue chip prospects, long on moolah.

Besides, the Indians are my AL rooting interest; Bay to the Tribe and Fukudome to the Cubs makes me happy all around.

Also, Fukudome has a cool name. If you deliberately mispronounce his name to sound 'merican, it'd be a good name for a taxpayer-funded indoor stadium built for a bad team...

"specifically, they need a RF"

If you want a RF, Fukudome is definitely the better choice of the two. Bay's arm won't play there.

"If they expected him to consider Shoppach, Lee and Gutierrez seriously, what does that say for their view of his savvy? Just makes you think."

I'm guessing that they saw the potential for an advantageous deal, in that they knew which Indians players he liked more than the rest of the staff while he was there.

A bigger question to me is why the Indians lowballed their ex-colleague.

That's not a lowball offer. They aren't trading for Bay's past they are trading for his future and his future is in doubt. Bay was a horrible player last year. No one would make a premium offer for a player coming off a season that bad. In fact, an argument could be made that the Pirates win the deal. Sure Bay has, by far, the biggest upside but he's also the biggest question mark.

It is reasonable in my mind to expect that:

Gutierez is better than Bay
Shoppach is better than Paulino
Lee is better than empty space.

Thus a more than fair deal for the Pirates.

"I'm guessing that they saw the potential for an advantageous deal, in that they knew which Indians players he liked more than the rest of the staff while he was there."

That makes eminent sense, Vlad.