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Sunday, April 21, 2013

Would Cards trade Taveras for Profar? : Sports

Somebody is going to get traded eventually. When you have surplus in one area and a shortage in another, it’s the only sensible thing to do.

“I understand why people connect the shortstop-outfielder and on a low level find a way for that to help both teams,” Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said Friday. “But the reality is we have just gotten to the point we wanted with our farm system — with more elite talent back and set to contribute to the major-league club. I’m not in the mood to start breaking it up.”

Jim Furtado Posted: April 21, 2013 at 08:56 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, jurickson profar, rangers, trade rumors

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   1. JRVJ Posted: April 21, 2013 at 01:26 PM (#4421140)
I realice that this is almost certainly a stock answer, but not wanting to make a trade because it breaks up your nice collection of talent is pretty damn dumb (reminds me of a great line in the Cowboy Wally Show, but I digress).
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: April 21, 2013 at 01:46 PM (#4421172)
“They are both a once-every-five-years, once-every-decade type talent,”


They need to stop saying this.. Heck if you look at the past couple of years you have Strasburg, Harper, Trout already in the bigs. You could probably add Machado to that list.

These guys(Taveras and Profar) aren't even once a year type of talents.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 21, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4421185)
I realice that this is almost certainly a stock answer, but not wanting to make a trade because it breaks up your nice collection of talent is pretty damn dumb (reminds me of a great line in the Cowboy Wally Show, but I digress).

It's especially dumb because you'd be getting another elite young talent. They wouldn't even be "braking up" the collection, just changing the composition.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4421190)
I think the article does nail the two reasons why this deal most likely won't happen.

You can’t be the guy who is wrong if one works out and becomes a star as expected and the other doesn’t.

“Then you’re the new Brock-for-Broglio guy.”......



and
And then there just the internal truth shared by two officials with teams outside of the picture and agreed to by Mozeliak when asked.

Teams often just like their own prospects better.
   5. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4421210)
this article hearkens back to new York articles talking about yankee prospects and how other teams would surrender their best kids in exchange no questions asked

good grief
   6. JJ1986 Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4421219)
Even though Profar is a slightly better prospect, the Cardinals don't really have any reason to make the straight up swap. The Rangers are the ones with positional problems.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4421228)
Even though Profar is a slightly better prospect, the Cardinals don't really have any reason to make the straight up swap. The Rangers are the ones with positional problems.

Staring Kozma at SS qualifies as a positional problem.

Plus in TFA, they mention the Cards want to get full-time PT for Matt Adams, which means Craig has to go to RF (assuming they let beltran walk), leaving no spot for Taveras.
   8. valuearbitrageur Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:25 PM (#4421231)
Even though Profar is a slightly better prospect, the Cardinals don't really have any reason to make the straight up swap. The Rangers are the ones with positional problems.


Which makes sense if the Cards are the only possible trade partner, which means it doesn't .
   9. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:27 PM (#4421234)
From the Rangers POV, why would they want to trade their top prospect for some anonymous Minor League Guy?
   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:27 PM (#4421236)
having watched so many teams with alleged 'too much talent' issues I suggest the cardinals let things play out because if you act too quickly you can suddenly look around and there is a gap that didn't previously exist
   11. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4421255)
You can’t be the guy who is wrong if one works out and becomes a star as expected and the other doesn’t.

“Then you’re the new Brock-for-Broglio guy.”......


I suppose, but there's the opposite too. What if you hold onto the guy and turns out to be nothing? I seem to recall the Mets had some nice offers for Milledge back in the day. Or maybe those were just internet rumors.
   12. JJ1986 Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4421256)
Staring Kozma at SS qualifies as a positional problem.


Yeah, but that's a one-year problem. The Rangers are blocked up for half a decade.

Plus in TFA, they mention the Cards want to get full-time PT for Matt Adams, which means Craig has to go to RF (assuming they let beltran walk), leaving no spot for Taveras.


I'd be surprised if Craig or Adams isn't the starting DH in two years.
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4421264)
jj

meaning one of them is traded to an al team?
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 21, 2013 at 02:44 PM (#4421268)
having watched so many teams with alleged 'too much talent' issues I suggest the cardinals let things play out because if you act too quickly you can suddenly look around and there is a gap that didn't previously exist

But there's a gap that exists now that Profar fills quite nicely. Why would you avoid fixing a problem that exists for certain, in case another problem occurs?

Plus, it's always easier to find OFers than SS. An elite SS is probably the most valuable commodity in the game given scarcity, reliability (which elevates them over ace SPs), and their ability to play 150+ Gs (unlike Cs).
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: April 21, 2013 at 03:02 PM (#4421294)
I suppose, but there's the opposite too. What if you hold onto the guy and turns out to be nothing? I seem to recall the Mets had some nice offers for Milledge back in the day. Or maybe those were just internet rumors.


I don't think Gm's are remembered as much for the moves they didn't make, as well as they are remembered for the moves they did make.
   16. Sunday silence Posted: April 21, 2013 at 03:11 PM (#4421309)
staring at Kozma may cause retinal damage.
   17. JJ1986 Posted: April 21, 2013 at 03:15 PM (#4421318)
I don't think Gm's are remembered as much for the moves they didn't make


JP Riccardi reportedly was offered David Wright (for an aging Jose Cruz Jr.) and turned it down.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: April 21, 2013 at 05:14 PM (#4421479)
And who remembers who the Brock for Broglio guy was. I'm a Cub fan and even I can't remember who. Of course nobody knew who GMs were -- things were better then, they could actually do their jobs rather than worry about their public image.

   19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: April 21, 2013 at 06:37 PM (#4421529)
Plus, it's always easier to find OFers than SS. An elite SS is probably the most valuable commodity in the game given scarcity, reliability (which elevates them over ace SPs), and their ability to play 150+ Gs (unlike Cs).

I guess it could be true that other than Tulowitzki there aren't any "elite SS" in MLB right now, but in principle I don't get why he's any more valuable than an "elite OF" like Ryan Braun or Giancarlo Stanton. On top of that who says Profar is an "elite SS"? For all we know he could be just another good player like Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus et al.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: April 21, 2013 at 07:12 PM (#4421549)
On top of that who says Profar is an "elite SS"? For all we know he could be just another good player like Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus et al.

The same people who say Taveras is an "elite OF" probably. Few if any of us have enough info to judge which of these two guys is the better prospect. Based on what we know, this seems a fair swap that makes sense for both teams, probably more for the Cards. Based on what they know/believe, both teams seem content.

   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 21, 2013 at 07:23 PM (#4421556)
I guess it could be true that other than Tulowitzki there aren't any "elite SS" in MLB right now, but in principle I don't get why he's any more valuable than an "elite OF" like Ryan Braun or Giancarlo Stanton. On top of that who says Profar is an "elite SS"? For all we know he could be just another good player like Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus et al.

As Walt says, we don't know, and we don't know that Taveras isn't Nick Swisher rather than Ryan Braun.

I'm just saying, that if I can have the best SS in baseball or the best corner OF, I'm picking the SS. You can always find a cromulent corner OF in FA.
   22. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: April 21, 2013 at 07:37 PM (#4421566)
These guys(Taveras and Profar) aren't even once a year type of talents.

It's possible that they mean "per organization" instead of "per major league baseball". Like, you can't trade this guy because as an organization you only get one of these a decade.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: April 21, 2013 at 07:47 PM (#4421575)
It's possible that they mean "per organization" instead of "per major league baseball". Like, you can't trade this guy because as an organization you only get one of these a decade.


I honestly didn't think of it like that.
   24. Perry Posted: April 21, 2013 at 07:52 PM (#4421579)
And who remembers who the Brock for Broglio guy was. I'm a Cub fan and even I can't remember who. Of course nobody knew who GMs were -- things were better then, they could actually do their jobs rather than worry about their public image.


I didn't either, although I remembered the Cards' guy was Bing Devine. The Cubs' GM was John Holland, who was the GM from 1956-75, which means he built those pretty good Cub teams of the late 60s. How he managed to keep his job despite only one .500 season in his first 11, I have no idea.
   25. BDC Posted: April 21, 2013 at 08:53 PM (#4421658)
Few if any of us have enough info to judge which of these two guys is the better prospect

Exactly. And so often people will talk about these guys as if their tickets to Cooperstown are being processed as we speak, whereas in cold fact Profar has hit .274/.367/.447 in 316 minor-league games, and Taveras, though a more proven hitter, may or may not be able to be much above a cromulent corner outfielder in the majors. Nobody knows; they are young and that's a good sign, but they could turn into HOF, HOVG, or HO Nothing in Particular.

Broglio was at least a proven major-leaguer. We often say around here that one should not judge a trade by its results; well, Brock was spinning his wheels in the majors to date, and Broglio was a known quantity. It just didn't work out for the Cubs. In the Profar/Taveras case, neither is proven OR spinning his wheels, and it just reinforces the point that We Do Not Know.

For my part, I understand that in fantasy baseball and in the abstract, Profar has the most value as a shortstop. I also understand that reality is not fantasy, the Rangers don't have any great first basemen, and if Ian Kinsler would move his self over to first base, Profar could play second and we might all be a lot better off than waiting for Mitch Moreland or Jeff Baker or Whoever to emerge as a major-league 1B. (And as to 2B getting hurt, well, lots of guys get hurt, and lots of great 2B don't.) The Rangers should be trying to win ballgames now with their current 40-man roster, not worrying about fantasy values or 2B aging curves or Kinsler's agent or Moreland's sensibilities. They shouldn't make a trade that's merely convenient, or that "helps both clubs." If they want to trade Profar, they should be looking for somebody who desperately needs a shortstop, to rob blind :)
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 21, 2013 at 09:44 PM (#4421730)
The Rangers should be trying to win ballgames now with their current 40-man roster, not worrying about fantasy values or 2B aging curves or Kinsler's agent or Moreland's sensibilities. They shouldn't make a trade that's merely convenient, or that "helps both clubs." If they want to trade Profar, they should be looking for somebody who desperately needs a shortstop, to rob blind :)

Taveras could slot into their OF really, really soon, and their OF is not very good.
   27. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: April 22, 2013 at 01:02 AM (#4421878)
It's possible that they mean "per organization" instead of "per major league baseball". Like, you can't trade this guy because as an organization you only get one of these a decade.


Especially for an org whose lowest draft pick since 1999 was #13 (though twice). It's not like they typically have the chance to get guys like Harper or Strasburg, and they missed on Trout to take Shelby Miller at #19.
   28. Shibal Posted: April 22, 2013 at 01:16 AM (#4421883)
You can always find a cromulent corner OF in FA.


This is one reason why I didn't understand all the laughter at the Will Myers-Shields/Davis trade.

Why isn't Elvis Andrus on the block?
   29. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 22, 2013 at 02:42 AM (#4421898)
9/Pat: Slow clap...

So, I've invented a drinking game where I take a sip every time I see a Profar/Taveras story. In related news, I am now dead.
   30. bjhanke Posted: April 22, 2013 at 05:41 AM (#4421913)
The main reasons the Cards would not do this swap are that, although they have a lot of 1B/OF guys who can hit, only John Jay can play CF at all any more, Jay ain't that great, Beltran is showing signs of losing his ability to play OF at all, due to injuries, Craig is limited to bad defense in LF or, stretching him to the limit, RF, and Adams can't play OF at all, due to lack of ability. Holliday can play LF pretty well, but that's the limit on him. That is, they need an outfielder who can actually play the outfield well more than they need a better SS than Kozma and the general pool of Ronny Cedenos who are always available. If they find themselves overloaded with outfielders, some AL team will give them a decent SS for Craig or Adams as a DH.

Also, the Brock for Broglio trade wasn't as bad when made as it turned out to be, which I hope is at least somewhat comforting to Walt Davis. Broglio was actually having a decent year in 1964 with the Cards. The Cubs, meanwhile, had this guy who could run but not play CF. He was limited to LF and 1B. Billy Williams. Ernie Banks. If you try moving Ernie to 3B, Ron Santo. That is, the Cubs just plain had nowhere to play Lou, and Broglio looked like his arm might have recovered. I don't think that trade should get a GM fired. - Brock Hanke
   31. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 22, 2013 at 08:14 AM (#4421931)
You can always find a cromulent corner OF in FA.

As the Phillies breathlessly await the emergence of Delmon Young from the DL to replace some combination of Domonic "Starting to Look Like a Bust" Brown, John AAAAberry and "Nix" Laynce Nix.
   32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 22, 2013 at 09:05 AM (#4421968)

JP Riccardi reportedly was offered David Wright (for an aging Jose Cruz Jr.) and turned it down.


And Alexis Rios for Tim Lincecum.

Allard Baird is remembered in KC for turning down Youk or Cano for Beltran instead of Mark Teahen.

Some Royals fans are still upset the team didn't pounce on Joakim Soria for Jesus Montero, if that really was offered.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 22, 2013 at 09:39 AM (#4421990)
. That is, they need an outfielder who can actually play the outfield well more than they need a better SS than Kozma and the general pool of Ronny Cedenos who are always available.

This doesn't make any sense to me. Kozma looks to be a sub-replacement level player, and the OF is fine.

If they find themselves overloaded with outfielders, some AL team will give them a decent SS for Craig or Adams as a DH.

How much are you getting for a DH? Not a starting SS, that's for sure.

I can understand thinking Taveras is better than Profar, and not making the trade for that reason. But, I can't see any argument that Taveras fits the Cardinals needs more than Profar.
   34. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 22, 2013 at 12:16 PM (#4422138)
JP Riccardi reportedly was offered David Wright (for an aging Jose Cruz Jr.) and turned it down.


Keith Law claims that happened when he was working for JP in Toronto.

It could only have happened during or right after the 2002 season (Wright couldn't be traded before then and Cruz was traded after 2002).

Phillips was canned 1/3 of the way in 2003, but knew he was in trouble for at least a year before that.
The Mets has made the World series in 2000
everyone said going into 2001 that the OF needed help/shoring up, Phillips said no, it was productive in 2000 (it wasn't, it didn't suck rocks only because Benny Agbayani played over his head and Jay Payton and Operation Shutdown managed to be not terrible) OF production in 2001 was horrifyingly awful, so for 2002 he went out and got Burnitz and Cedeno (who both flopped, and yet to show how terrible the 2001 OF was, the 2002 one was better)

So Phillips was frantically trying to plug gaps as the team was sinking under .500, but he was handicapped by the fact that the Wilpons evidently decided to not let Phillips have any money... so he started looking at what valuable trade chits he had... (Phillips' successor wasn't given any $ to work with either, but then Minaya was apparently given free access to the Wilpons' bank account his 1st two-three years as GM...)

With regard to Linceum/Rios, to be fair to JP what I heard was that JP asked for Linceum and the Giants said NO

   35. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 22, 2013 at 12:24 PM (#4422145)
As the Phillies breathlessly await the emergence of Delmon Young from the DL to replace some combination of Domonic "Starting to Look Like a Bust" Brown

Starting? This is his 4th season with significant MLB time. He was taken in 2006 draft. 20th round, but still, I think it's more like "Last Chance To Prove He's Not A Bust" Brown.
   36. Squash Posted: April 22, 2013 at 12:30 PM (#4422153)
This doesn't make any sense to me. Kozma looks to be a sub-replacement level player, and the OF is fine.

I had the same thought. There are very few teams in the ML who need an OF more than they need an SS, and the Cards aren't one of them. The reason the Cards don't want to trade Taveras for Profar is that they've been dreaming on him for 3+ years now and they don't want to move him right when they're about to get him.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: April 22, 2013 at 11:22 PM (#4422937)
HO Nothing in Particular

HONIP? Is this what we used to call Spanish Fly?

Profar and the Rangers ... but Kinsler to 1B makes almost no sense. So far he's bat has rebounded (and then some, off to a very hot start) but still for his career he's a 111 OPS+ and has only one season (2008) substantially above that. He has been well above-average at 2B (and off to a hot start there too apparently). So you'd be taking a guy who's a real asset at 2B and turning him into Adam LaRoche. Seems doubly silly since it's usually not hard to replace a Moreland with a LaRoche type -- heck, Moreland is supposed to be a LaRoche type. Meanwhile, if Profar can handle SS, moving him to 2B probably reduces his value as well.

The other obvious spot for Profar would be CF but the Rangers have Leonys Martin, a darn good prospect in his own right (25 but from Cuba and in the middle of a 5/$20 deal). He destroyed AA in a half-season in 2011, got moved up to AAA where he struggled before destroying it in 2012 (in just 250 PA). He's off to a decent start this year. I have no idea if he projects to stay in CF though.

Too much talent is a nice problem to have of course but it does become a problem if the logjam doesn't clear. Profar is still just 20 and not tearing up AAA so there's no rush yet. But I do think that when prospects perform at top levels but don't get a shot that it messes with them. Profar's at least a year and maybe two away from that and there's a very good chance some part of this logjam will clear by then. Worst-case scenario, the Beltre contract runs out after 2015.

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