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Friday, July 13, 2012

WSJ: Yup, Tim Lincecum Is the Worst Pitcher Ever

Wow! I haven’t seen a drop-off like this since Schlitze following up Freaks with The Unborn as “Vasectomy Patient”!

Tim Lincecum is the worst pitcher in baseball history.

If the season ended today, Lincecum (above)—a two-time Cy Young Award winner—would have the worst adjusted ERA, 55, of any pitcher who has thrown at least 95 innings in a season since at least 1901. Adjusted ERA (also known as ERA+) alters a pitcher’s ERA based on his home ballpark and the average ERA of his league.

Lincecum (3-10, 6.42 ERA) must improve his adjusted ERA by at least two points to avoid setting a rather undesirable record. Bill Stoneman of the 1973 Montreal Expos, Carl Lundgren of the 1908 Chicago Cubs and Rube Bressler of 1915 Philadelphia Athletics all finished seasons with record-low adjusted ERAs of 56.

Pitchers rarely compile adjusted ERAs as bad as Lincecum’s because they are usually benched or demoted before they throw many innings (and do more damage). The idea of this happening to the 28-year-old Lincecum, one of three active multiple Cy Young winners, would have been inconceivable just three months ago. Lincecum’s first start of the second half is Saturday against the Houston Astros.

Repoz Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:43 AM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: giants, history, sabermetrics

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1. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4181741)

The innings pitched cutoff is kind of silly. I don't think Lincecum has been worse than Roy Halladay in 2000 (10.64 ERA, 48 ERA+, -2.8 WAR, 44:42 K:BB), for example, but Halladay only got 67 innings in. By WAR, Halladay delivered more negative value, as did plenty of others. If Lincecum keeps this up for a full season he might get into Steve Blass 1973 (-4.1 WAR) territory.

2. Dangerous Dean Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4181742)

I've never been able to figure him out. His motion is unique. He seems to have a "I am a chronic-smoking skate-punk, and jsut don't care" attitude. Yet he was superb in his early career.

I don't see him pitch much these days. Is he physically broken or has he lost his mechanics?

3. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4181748)

The post-WWI record for ERA title qualifiers is Jose Lima in 2005 with 63. Hector Noesi and Ervin Santana would be #3 and #7 if the two of them and Lincecum somehow maintain their IP and ERA+ paces.

4. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4181749)

Personally I think his elbow is busted, but publicly he and the team have denied any injury as a cause.

I see a better pitcher having the same issues Lackey had last year when he tried to pitch with a torn UCL.

5. ColonelTom Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4181761)

I'm not buying the Lackey comparison. Lackey's numbers (K/PA, BB/PA, etc.) in 2011 were virtually identical with or without men on base. Lincecum's are massively worse with men on base, and that wasn't the case before this season.

Not to say he isn't hurt - he may well be, and pitching from the stretch may make it worse. I hope he figures it out.

6. Swedish Chef Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4181762)

He should try switching suppliers, this weed isn't getting it done.

7. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4181769)

When a pitcher collapses like this I think the likeliest answer is injury. If I were the Giants I'd be putting Lincecum through tests like a lab rat right now.

8. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4181771)

He's pretty bad, but he's no Roy Halladay.

9. Steve Treder Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4181776)

When a pitcher collapses like this I think the likeliest answer is injury. If I were the Giants I'd be putting Lincecum through tests like a lab rat right now.

Big time. What I would definitely not be doing is what they're doing: taking him at his word when he says he feels fine, and sending him out there for turn after turn thinking that he'll just work his way through it. He is not working his way through it. It's past time to switch to Plan B.

10. Joey B. has ignited his October #Natitude Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4181777)

When a pitcher collapses like this I think the likeliest answer is injury. If I were the Giants I'd be putting Lincecum through tests like a lab rat right now.

And if it turns out his arm truly isn't injured, then I would tell him he needs to put on weight. He has gotten so skinny he's starting to look like a heroin addict.

11. ColonelTom Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4181780)

Lincecum may be pitching for his spot in the Giants' rotation on Saturday:

The interesting part:

By all indications Thursday, Lincecum needs a decent start on Saturday to keep his spot in the rotation. Elsewhere on the Lincecum front, I got a good look at his bullpen session and saw firsthand what the Giants have been saying for weeks. He doesn't need extra side sessions -- he's absolutely filthy in the ones he's already throwing.

Everything was down, everything was moving. Lincecum just hasn't been able to take that into games consistently.

If that's an accurate assessment, it sounds like a mechanical problem, a mental issue, or both.

12. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4181784)

It may have started out as bad luck and then turned into a mental issue. His FIP is 3.98 right now, and was lower earlier this season.

13. ColonelTom Posted: July 13, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4181799)

Here's Jeff Nelson (Baseball Nation) on "Diagnosing Tim Lincecum" - an interesting read.

14. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: July 13, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4181805)

It may have started out as bad luck and then turned into a mental issue.

That would be my guess as well. The bad luck led to control issues by trying to be too fine, and the control issues led to meatballs being thrown over the plate when he fell behind.

We'll see if the extra days off help him.

15. John Northey Posted: July 13, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4181808)

Reminds me of the nightmare season Dave Stieb had in 1986. In 1985 Stieb had the best ERA+ for the 2nd year running, a career 135 ERA+ over 1654 IP. Then at age 28 in 1986 something went horribly wrong. Over his first 10 starts his ERA was 6.83. He threw a shutout then had a 5.51 ERA over his next 8 starts before going to the pen (around the all-star break) for 3 of his next 4 appearances. Returning to the rotation he had a 3.35 ERA the rest of the way over 14 starts and had a 122 ERA+ over his next 5 seasons (867 IP). At age 33 he was injured and never fully recovered, getting just 169 more innings in (50 in a comeback season after 4 seasons away from the majors) with an 84 ERA+.

16. Rennie's Tenet Posted: July 13, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4181866)

Here's Jeff Nelson (Baseball Nation) on "Diagnosing Tim Lincecum" - an interesting read.

Nelson says, "There's nothing in the pitch speeds worth talking about," but wouldn't an average fastball drop from 92 to 90 usually be considered pretty significant?

17. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 13, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4181876)

Lincecum may be pitching for his spot in the Giants' rotation on Saturday

If the Giants don't want him, I'm sure there are lots of other teams that would love to have him.

18. Cyril Morong Posted: July 13, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4181915)

I think ColonelTom in #5 made a good point.

Fangraphs has his FIP ERA at 3.98. Not great but not terrible, either. Here are his BA OBP SLG for some situations this year

RISP 0.327 0.446 0.555
None on 0.250 0.313 0.441
Men On 0.293 0.399 0.476

Now for his career

RISP 0.225 0.313 0.348
None on 0.233 0.306 0.347
Men On 0.220 0.296 0.341

So it is unusual for him to be so bad with runners on base

He is allowing 1 HR per 9 IP this year, just about average for the NL. He is allowing 4.7 BBs per 9 IP with the league average being 3.1. But he has 9.7 K's per 9 IP while the league average is 7.6. This does not look like the worst pitcher ever. The WSJ article only looked at ERA+

19. hgmiller Posted: July 13, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4181978)

If the Giants don't want him, I'm sure there are lots of other teams that would love to have him.

I'm sure the Royals will give back Jonathan Sanchez if the Giants want to dump Lincecum instead.

20. Dale H. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4181980)

Nelson says, "There's nothing in the pitch speeds worth talking about," but wouldn't an average fastball drop from 92 to 90 usually be considered pretty significant?

Not really. All pitchers lose velocity as the wear and tear eats their arms up. The average pitcher has lost 2 MPH from their initial speeds by the age of 30 according to this study. You just learn more about pitching to handle the velocity loss. So while it may indicate injury because of the "early onset", it doesn't necessarily stand out as something uncommon to all pitchers.

21. dr. scott Posted: July 13, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4181999)

Ok, so I knew it was called the deadball era, but had no clue that a 4.22 ERA could get you a 56 ERA+ in 1908. I guess Carl Lundgren suffered from dry mouth.

22. Bhaakon Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4182131)

Big time. What I would definitely not be doing is what they're doing: taking him at his word when he says he feels fine, and sending him out there for turn after turn thinking that he'll just work his way through it. He is not working his way through it. It's past time to switch to Plan B.

To be a cold-hearted realist, if Lincecum elbow or shoulder really are shot, they've already reached the point where they'd be lucky to get a couple months out of him before he hits free agency. They no longer have much of an incentive to protect his long-term health, and it's not like they have any obviously better alternatives to take his place right now, so taking his word and hope that he's really not hurt (or can at elast figure out to pitch effectively through the pain) is the only way to get anything for the $40M they just gave him.

23. calhounite Posted: July 14, 2012 at 03:02 AM (#4182300)

couple theories...

1 RAS. Rocket Arm Syndrome. Only cure is throwing constant bullets. Lincecum was okay throwing 300 innings, but now needs more. The problem is the other 4 starters. The other starters in the league. The fact that baseball sized holes in the fuselage aren't allowed.

2 Or it could be hitters en masse have caught up to Linc's lemon interspersed strikeout arsenal. Just be patient. Gets down in the count, will tend to throw some get me over crap which can be smacked around since command not too good. Heck, gets up in the count, take pitches anyway since Linc then will invariably try to get the hitter to chase some garbage balls. To Linc, 3-2 counts are obligatory.

24. dirk

Posted: July 14, 2012 at 03:55 AM (#4182303)

ow, my brains.

25. King Berenger Posted: July 14, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4182410)

This is a theory that's not based a single shred of evidence, but I wonder if maybe he's somehow tipping his pitches from the stretch - but this also means that suddenly the entire league has picked up on it the same season.

That stretch when he wasn't too effective in 2010 - I wonder if there are any comparisons to this season. Edit: Nah, he was actually kind of better with men on in 2010.

26. Poster Nutbag Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4182567)

It may have started out as bad luck and then turned into a mental issue.

This is what I am guessing. Like a long, extended hitting slump...but for a pitcher. Over-thinking things a bit, over-compensating, "trying too hard", etc.

27. Squash Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4182625)

They no longer have much of an incentive to protect his long-term health, and it's not like they have any obviously better alternatives to take his place right now, so taking his word and hope that he's really not hurt (or can at elast figure out to pitch effectively through the pain) is the only way to get anything for the $40M they just gave him.

Which brings up an interesting question that I don't remember the answer to - was it Lincecum's choice to go essentially year to year and the club wanted a long term deal, or did the Giants want to go year to year? He's obviously going to do all right regardless, but something like this is of course the downside risk to not taking the money when you can. He's one of my favorite Giants, I hope he turns it around.

28. tshipman

Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4182774)

was it Lincecum's choice to go essentially year to year and the club wanted a long term deal, or did the Giants want to go year to year?

Lincecum's choice.

By the way--he's gone 7 so far with 9 K's, one walk and no runs allowed tonight.

29. tshipman

Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4182784)

11 K's, one walk, no runs in 8.

ERA down to 5.93

30. Steve Treder Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4182790)

I hope his performance tonight is the turning point, and my advocacy of sitting him down is proven wrong.

I remain skeptical, of course.

31. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4182796)

Yup, Tim Lincecum is no longer the worst pitcher ever.

32. BochysFingers Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:58 PM (#4182798)

Well, he would have gotten a win, if not for the worst defensive play ever.

33. Horror Posted: July 15, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4182804)

I remain skeptical, of course.

Eight shutout innings against JD Martinez and the Astros wasn't enough to sway you?

34. Steve Treder Posted: July 15, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4182805)

I have watched many more thousands of baseball games than I care to count, and I've never seen that play before. Criminy.

35. Steve Treder Posted: July 15, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4182806)

Eight shutout innings against JD Martinez and the Astros wasn't enough to sway you?

Yeah, call me crazy.

36. BochysFingers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4182808)

His next start in Philly will be revealing.

37. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: July 15, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4182835)

This pitching stuff is complicated. You'd have to be a complete fool to get involved in the statistical side of pitcher evaluation...

38. dr. scott Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4182959)

So I did not see the game, apparently had too many beers at lunch..... Anyway, was his location vastly improved, or were the Astros just swinging at everything?

39. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4183082)

the astros have 2 actual major leaguers on that team and one just got hurt. what amazes me is that this team ever actually wins. it goes to show you that in baseball youneverknow

40. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4183112)

I didn't think he looked that great. Labored at times, gave up hard contact regularly, struggled to get the fastball up to 92, and seemed to lack a real put-away pitch. Hard to see in retrospect how he got to 11 K's. The Astros never quite looked foolish, but they didn't seem to have much of an idea what to do in the batter's box. Crafty pitchers or inexperienced hitters? No idea.

Also, Blanco's slide on the Lowrie injury was BS. No need to come all the way across the bag as a) there was zero chance of turning the DP and b) he was safe to begin with.

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Friday, July 13, 2012

WSJ: Yup, Tim Lincecum Is the Worst Pitcher Ever

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