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Thursday, October 28, 2010

Yahoo: Vladimir Guerrero’s rough night puts Game 2 start at risk

You know…Vladimir Guerrero has an awful lot of Uncle Leonard Barr in his game.

After watching Vladimir Guerrero’s two-error hatchet job in right field on Wednesday night, you’d think that Ron Washington would admit to reconsidering the use of his slugger for the World Series games that are played at AT&T Park.

But if the Texas Rangers manager is experiencing doubts about his plan to keep Guerrero’s bat in the lineup, he didn’t own up to it after the 11-7 loss to the Giants in Game 1 of the World Series.

  “No, I don’t,” Washington said when asked if he had to reconsider Guerrero playing the outfield. “A couple balls got by him.”

Actually, that would be quite a good reason to question the benefit of fielding a defense featuring a creaky-kneed 35-year-old manning San Francisco’s spacious triples alley.

But Washington also never said if Guerrero will be in the lineup for Thursday’s Game 2 and I just don’t see how they can again risk his defensive play in a crucial game that would figure to be a lot closer.

Repoz Posted: October 28, 2010 at 09:49 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants, rangers, sabermetrics

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   1. TomH Posted: October 28, 2010 at 12:29 PM (#3677904)
"how they can again risk his defensive play in a crucial game that would figure to be a lot closer. "

That's an odd (and poor!) way to say it. If the game is closer, you take less risks? If the game is closer, you don't need his bat as much?
   2. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: October 28, 2010 at 12:38 PM (#3677910)
David Murphy is left handed and a much better fielder (hell, I think I'm a better fielder than Vlad at this point) so I don't know why Wash is being so stubborn here. Murphy isn't even that much less of a hitter and if Vlad sits, you get to use him as a PH when the Giants bring in their side-arming lefty killer.
   3. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 12:46 PM (#3677916)
The biggest problem is that Vlad isn't a good enough hitter to do this with, especially against righties.
   4. AROM Posted: October 28, 2010 at 01:17 PM (#3677934)
Vlad's still a pretty good hitter. But nobody is a good enough hitter to make up for the brutal fielding on display last night. That was up there with Brooks Conrad and Dan Uggla in the Allstar game a few years ago for 1-game incompetance.
   5. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: October 28, 2010 at 01:37 PM (#3677949)
I expressed concern about the Rangers outfield defense before last night's game (you can look it up in the Chatter :) and of course nothing has happened to alleviate my concern. Wash has altered the course that got the Rangers to the playoffs, which was to employ Julio Borbon and focus on run prevention. At least last night it looks like he pushed that alteration of course a little too far.

Though of course it's only one factor; the Giants were hitting most of the Ranger pitching pretty hard, and you can't play defense against the dreaded Juan Uribe playoff HR bat :)
   6. Ron Johnson Posted: October 28, 2010 at 01:50 PM (#3677957)
#4 Sure. But why should that change Washington's opinion of Guerrero's true defensive talent level.

Or to put it another way there's this game

From the summary:

ATHLETICS 5TH:

Tenace was called out on strikes;
BROWN BATTED FOR GREEN; Brown grounded out (shortstop to first);
Odom walked;
On a bunt Campaneris singled to third [Odom to third (error by B. Robinson), Campaneris to second];
Hendrick reached on an error by B. Robinson [Odom scored (error by B. Robinson) (unearned) (no RBI), Campaneris scored (unearned) (no RBI),
Hendrick to second]; Jackson was called out on strikes; 2 R (0 ER), 1 H, 3 E, 1 LOB. Athletics 2, Orioles 0.

That's a pretty impressive stretch.

The point that Guerrero's bat isn't enough better than Murphy's may make sense, but placing any emphasis on his play last night strikes me as stupid.
   7. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:02 PM (#3677970)
The point that Guerrero's bat isn't enough better than Murphy's may make sense, but placing any emphasis on his play last night strikes me as stupid.

I would be less concerned that he made a couple errors and more concerned that he runs like he has a wooden leg.
   8. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:11 PM (#3677977)
I would be less concerned that he made a couple errors and more concerned that he runs like he has a wooden leg.

He looked terrible out there. It could be that with a couple of weeks he could get back in the swing of playing the outfield but, of course, there's no time for that. David Murphy in right with Vlad available to screw up late game match ups for the Giants makes the Rangers a better team, I think.
   9. Cabbage Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3677979)
He really has the most akward gait of any ballplayer
   10. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3677980)
I wonder if Vlad would run better if, like Murphy, he literally pulled his socks up. I worry about him tripping over his pants cuffs.
   11. michaelplank Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:15 PM (#3677986)
He really has the most akward gait of any ballplayer


Always has, really, even when he was young and could run.
   12. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3677987)
He really has the most akward gait of any ballplayer

Is one of his legs substantially longer than the other or what? It's extraordinary.
   13. Eddo Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:25 PM (#3677996)
#6 - I'm having trouble parsing that cleanly; I *think* that's two errors on Robinson, right? A throwing error on Campaneris's bunt, then another error of some nature in Hendrick's plate appearance, which led to Hendrick reaching and two runs scoring, right?
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:27 PM (#3677998)
I wonder if it might be to Vlad's advantage to start taking grounders this off-season and be prepared to play some first base next season. His main problem is mobility, which would be slightly mitigated at first, provided he could pick grounders. I mean there's always the chance that he'll Piazza at first, but it might be worthwhile experiment.
   15. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3678011)
The point that Guerrero's bat isn't enough better than Murphy's may make sense, but placing any emphasis on his play last night strikes me as stupid.
I agree with this. The real problem for the Rangers wasn't that Guerrero made those errors late, but that that he was making errors on a bunch of hits that Texas pitchers were giving up. Sure, he turned Renteria's single into a triple (no small deal), but ishikawa's double would have scored him. So if Murphy had been in instead of Vlad, the score would have been, what? 10-7? 9-7?

Maybe it's because I'm used to watching Vlad stiff-leg it around in the outfield for years, but I'm unconvinced that he's the problem the Rangers should be focused on.
   16. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:44 PM (#3678021)
I agree with this. The real problem for the Rangers wasn't that Guerrero made those errors late, but that that he was making errors on a bunch of hits that Texas pitchers were giving up. Sure, he turned Renteria's single into a triple (no small deal), but ishikawa's double would have scored him. So if Murphy had been in instead of Vlad, the score would have been, what? 10-7? 9-7?

Last night's game is done. You could play a corpse in right field and, just because you get lucky and no one hits a ball to rightfield all night, that doesn't make it a good idea to play a corpse there. Tonight's game may be a 1-0 game so the question is do you want to risk Vlad losing the game because he plays a single into a triple, especially when you have a superior option to him on the bench?
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:49 PM (#3678029)
Threads about Vladimir Guerrero are always terribly confusing for me.
   18. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:51 PM (#3678032)
Threads about Vladimir Guerrero are always terribly confusing for me.

He's smarter than Pedro Guerrero, but not an appreciably better defender. I hope that clears things up.
   19. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: October 28, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3678039)
Long-career outfielders who never played a ML game at first base include Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson, Mel Ott, Lou Brock, Steve Finley, Tim Raines, Max Carey, Tony Gwynn, Roberto Clemente, Willie Davis, Zack Wheat, Sam Rice, Enos Slaughter, Sammy Sosa, Harry Hooper, Ted Williams, Doc Cramer, Garret Anderson (so far), Brett Butler, Rich Ashburn, Ruben Sierra, Marquis Grissom, Duke Snider, Bobby Abreu (so far), Kenny Lofton, Jim Rice, Ken Singleton, Bernie Williams, Gary Matthews Sr, Willie Horton, Wally Moses, Vlad Guerrero (so far), Cy Williams, Ellis Burks, Amos Otis, and Lloyd Waner.

It's an interesting group because it is really a bunch of distinct subgroups. There are the guys who were pretty good defensively, or at least fast, even when old (Finley, Lofton, Carey, Cramer, many others). There are some oddballs: Mel Ott played some infield, but clearly nobody (including Ott as a manager) thought he was tall enough to play 1B; Enos Slaughter could have played first, I'm sure, but he was a little guy too.

And then there's the subgroup that Vlad belongs to, the bats who were never even tried at first, in latter years going straight to DH. They seem a little bit to defy the theory of the defensive spectrum. (Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Reggie, Sosa, Snider, Rice, Singleton, Horton). And fine athletes, too, most of them at least good outfielders, though sooner or later in their careers they all became pretty immobile. But something about them made managers leery of introducing them to infield play at an advanced age. First base may be easier to play than corner OF, but if you've never fielded a ground ball hit in anger or taken a throw from 3B, it may be best not to start trying at age 35+.
   20. deputydrew Posted: October 28, 2010 at 03:10 PM (#3678054)
Does anyone think that Vlad's psyche might play into the decision? He looked defeated out there by the end. A player that hopes the ball won't be hit to him is trouble waiting to happen. Even if Vlad was the right decision on Wednesday, he might not be the right decision on Thursday.
   21. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: October 28, 2010 at 03:20 PM (#3678059)
Tonight's game may be a 1-0 game so the question is do you want to risk Vlad losing the game because he plays a single into a triple, especially when you have a superior option to him on the bench?


Alternatively do you want to lose a 1-0 game because you took Vladimir Guerrero out of the lineup and David Murphy went 0 for 4?

Personally I would go with Murphy because against a righty I think the difference in their bats is small enough. Unless Deputydrew is right about Guerrero's pscyhe I don't see any reason for the Rangers to change their thinking based on one game. If they believe Vladdie > Murphy for these purposes, then they should stick with him.
   22. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3678068)
There were at least two balls hit to right field that a better right fielder would have caught, plus all the errors.

Vlad was directly responsible for at least 2 runs. That's pretty bad. Every Giant hitter's approach should be to dump it to right field.
   23. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: October 28, 2010 at 03:41 PM (#3678089)
If they believe Vladdie > Murphy for these purposes, then they should stick with him.

I'm not arguing that if the Rangers think Vlad is more valuable than Murphy that they shouldn't stick with him. I just don't see why they think Vlad is more valuable than Murphy right now except that Vlad is a future HOFer and David Murphy is just David Murphy.
   24. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 28, 2010 at 03:57 PM (#3678102)
Murphy .291/.358/.449 26 doubles 12 HR in 419 AB
Vladdy .300/.345/.496 27 doubles 29 HR in 593 AB

So why (other than proven veteran presence) is Vlad much less likely to go 0/4?
   25. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3678124)
And then there's the subgroup that Vlad belongs to, the bats who were never even tried at first, in latter years going straight to DH. They seem a little bit to defy the theory of the defensive spectrum.


I think that definitely the main factor is probably that many of these men probably hadn't fielded a sharply-hit grounder since high school, but I also suspect that part of it is that nearly all of them were enormous stars who could not be forced to move positions against their will. Bonds, in particular, with his poor throwing arm and utter immobility in the later years of his career, probably would have been a natural fit for 1B. But you can't go to the biggest star your franchise has had in 40 years and tell him he's changing positions for the good of the team, especially at a time when he's old enough to just retire if he feels like it.
   26. The Artist Posted: October 28, 2010 at 04:33 PM (#3678132)
It was painful to watch at the park, and I say this as a Giants fan - as someone put it, it was like Mays in 1973 playing for the sad-Sack Mets (redundancy, but there you go). I wasn't around for that, but Vlad's always been one of my favorite players, and I wish he didn't get embarrassed that badly.
   27. Cris E Posted: October 28, 2010 at 04:47 PM (#3678148)
I'm not sure Vlad would make a good 1b. A significant amount of his difficulty last night wasn't running, but picking up the d*mn ball from around his feet. He just looked slow and awkward trying to do anything that close to the ground. I'm not sure he's limber enough to stretch for a throw or quick enough to handle a hot shot down the line. He might look much worse in the infield, and that would be sad to watch. At least in RF he can reach back and cut loose a nice throw to 2b every once in a while and maybe look like a real fielder.
   28. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 28, 2010 at 04:47 PM (#3678150)
So why (other than proven veteran presence) is Vlad much less likely to go 0/4?
No good reason; Guerrero's just been a guy who has had a Hall of Fame-worthy peak and can still really hit. A guy like that, I trust with a bat in his hands.
   29. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:00 PM (#3678160)
Yes, he also drove in two runs last night, after all. It's more like Manny-Ramirez embarrassing than elderly-Mays embarrassing.
   30. deputydrew Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:15 PM (#3678173)
He might look much worse in the infield


I agree with this. Most bad outfielders don't look all that bad to the casual fan. They don't drop fly balls as often as they're three steps away from a ball another player would have easily tracked down. Playing the infield requires a lot more technique and skill while more routinely exposing players to looking very bad. Now, I'm not at all saying that he would hurt his team more or less at 1B or in the OF, but I strongly suspect his flaws would be far more obvious in the infield.
   31. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:26 PM (#3678186)
Wrong thread.
   32. John DiFool2 Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:45 PM (#3678203)
Murphy isn't even that much less of a hitter and if Vlad sits, you get to use him as a PH when the Giants bring in their side-arming lefty killer.



[OT]
I'll just point out that said LOOGY is Javier Lopez, who was run out of Boston on a rail early in '09, kicks around between AAA and the majors for 1 1/2 seasons, is picked up by Texas for 2 career minor-leaguers, and all of a sudden K's 16 for them while walking only 2.[/OT]
   33. Srul Itza Posted: October 28, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3678214)
it was like Mays in 1973 playing for the sad-Sack pennant-winning Mets


FTFY
   34. Dale Sams Posted: October 28, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3678245)
[OT]
I'll just point out that said LOOGY is Javier Lopez, who was run out of Boston on a rail early in '09, kicks around between AAA and the majors for 1 1/2 seasons, is picked up by Texas for 2 career minor-leaguers, and all of a sudden K's 16 for them while walking only 2.[/OT]


I'll also point out said Murphy was traded by the Red Sox, along with some other (s?) I don't remember for Eric Gagme.
   35. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: October 28, 2010 at 06:31 PM (#3678250)
it was like Mays in 1973 playing for the sad-Sack pennant-winning Mets

Both are true.
   36. The Ghost, elitist lollygagging neck-stabber Posted: October 28, 2010 at 06:50 PM (#3678282)
FWIW, a couple of Vlad's fielding stats this year:

125.2 innings, 2 errors.

Last night's 2-error performance was a small sample size, but he did look awkward out there.

I always think that 1B is not nearly as trivial a defensive position as it is sometimes portrayed. There is a lot going on over there.
   37. neilsen Posted: October 28, 2010 at 06:51 PM (#3678284)
Well, of course Vlad didnt redeem himself with a key hit and rbi in the bottom of the 12th inning to help his team win - like Willie Mays did in 1973.
   38. zenbitz Posted: October 28, 2010 at 07:04 PM (#3678307)
The really weird thing for this Giants fan is why isn't Vlad playing LEFT field.

RF at AT&T is one of the most difficult RFs in the majors, with the triples ally and strange wall. LF on the other hand, was built for Aging Bonds' Knees.
   39. Ron Johnson Posted: October 28, 2010 at 07:10 PM (#3678312)
#13 3 errors. Two on one play. First allows Hendrick to reach and Odom to score and the second allowed Campaneris to score.

Memory say Tommy John hold the record for errors on a single play (3?)
   40. Walt Davis Posted: October 28, 2010 at 07:17 PM (#3678323)
Not moving guys to 1B makes a lot more sense when you can move them to DH (Reggie, Davis, Rice, Vlad) without the risk/hassle of them learning a new position. But of course a lot of those in the list didn't move to DH. Some of them were probably blocked at 1B already (Horton by Cash, Singleton by Murray ... and Clemente by Robertson/Stargell/Oliver but nobody was looking to move him out of the OF yet anyway). Some of the "obvious" guys:

Williams -- I suppose LF in Fenway is easy enough in one sense and quirky enough in another sense that it makes sense to keep him there.

Bonds -- I grant he looked about as mobile as Cecil Fielder out there after the knee surgery but the advanced stats had him as average until his last season.

Anderson -- by the time the defense went, the bat was gone too. The real question was why employ him at all by that stage.

Abreu -- he seems like a "natural" to me and wasn't blocked at 1B when he was in NY (due to Giambi's own defensive issues) nor this season once Morales was injured.
   41. Eddo Posted: October 28, 2010 at 07:47 PM (#3678360)
#39 - Thanks!
   42. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 28, 2010 at 08:09 PM (#3678376)
The really weird thing for this Giants fan is why isn't Vlad playing LEFT field.
In 15 years in the bigs, Guerrero's played a grand total of one game in LF, and he wasn't even there the whole game. I hear what you're saying about right field at AT&T, though, and it mirrored my first though when I saw that Guerrero would start in right.

I'd still stick him out there, though, and hope his bat comes through.

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